Gilbert vs. Cancellara-who has the best chance of winning all 5 monuments?

[simoni]

He's not that young, you know... 23 years old. Andy Schleck was 22 when he finished 4th in LBL, and 4th in Lombardia. And he won LBL at 23. Gesink was 22 when he finished 3d in Amstel Gold.

EBH has done nothing in any of the real classics. Partly due to injury, of course, but let him first show something in a classic, and then we'll know what he's capable of.

EBH was superb last year at a v young age - Ghent-Wevelgem and Giro stage for starters. He hasn't progressed this year but I think the sky "effect" and injury etc. have hampered his progress. Hopefully he can pick up next year where he left off.

He's more than hype. Remember for example that Boonen podiumed at PR in '02 but it took another 2 or 3 years before he finally nailed a big classic. Give EBH a bit of time.

Sagan? Looks very exciting indeed. In 5 years time you can see him, EBH + others?! contesting big races throughout the year.

 

[kurtinsc]

EBH was superb last year at a v young age - Ghent-Wevelgem and Giro stage for starters. He hasn't progressed this year but I think the sky "effect" and injury etc. have hampered his progress. Hopefully he can pick up next year where he left off.

He's more than hype. Remember for example that Boonen podiumed at PR in '02 but it took another 2 or 3 years before he finally nailed a big classic. Give EBH a bit of time.

Sagan? Looks very exciting indeed. In 5 years time you can see him, EBH + others?! contesting big races throughout the year.

I'd say EBH has progressed... but not in the classics. He's progressed as a sprinter.

Last year, most of his better performances were from small groups. His podiums at the Giro from a group sprint was 7th place (granted... he was part of the Cav leadout). He did okay in some lesser sprint fields in Benelux, Poland and Britain... but not nearly as well as he's done this year winning stages against good sprint fields in Oman, T-A, and a couple of top 3's in the Tour.

To be honest.... I see him turning into Thor Hushovd. A good sprinter with some climbing legs, solid on the cobbles, and a good TT (though Thor has let his TT go a bit over the years). Winning the climbing monuments doesn't seem likely to me.

 

[nvpacchi]

Vladimir Gusev? He's placed top 5 in RvV before. Does he have any sort of explosion for a final sprint?

 

[aahmadhu]

don't know why but when it comes to monuments, alexandr kolobnev comes to my mind, right after cancellara, gilbert and boonen. excellent classics rider though.

 

[Magnus]

I would say Gilbert, because the already won Lombardy, the classic the least suited to him. PR is definitely within his reach: winning Het Volk twice and podiuming the RvV twice shows he knows how to ride the cobbles. IMO he could give this a serious shot when he's older and his explosiveness is decreasing. Even Museeuw won PR for the first time when he was almost 31 and became THE specialist after that.

The problem for both is: are they willing to sacrifice theire favourite races (where the chances of succes are a lot higher) to fill this gap in their palmares?

Afaik the cobbles of rvv and pr are in no way comparable. Besides Gilbert hasn't even ridden PR yet. I doubt the same was true for Museeuw when he was 28.

FC seems to target new goals all the time and has all ready mentioned the possibility of winning all 5 monuments. Now that he has won RvV I think he's more likely to target LBL and GdL.

Gilbert hasn't won LBL, MSR or RvV yet. I think he'll focus on those before targeting PR.

 

[Magnus]

World champs is on a circuit and has a totally different dynamic with it being national teams. No way Spartacus can win LBL; too long, too many different types of climbs and he is too big. LBL is for a GC type rider.

Sure the dynamics are different. But being swiss FC is probably not favoured in WC and olympics. Sure LBL is long, but so are WC and olympics. The climbs in Mendrisio Beijing and RvV seems pretty different and he's handled them all pretty well.

Looking at past winners it seems you've got a point a lot of them being GC guys. Another point could be that the best LBL riders peak for LBL and not necessarily worlds/olympics.

 

[Fourier]

Canc has talked about the possiblity. He might opt for the hour record if he can't necessarily tackle hilly classics or Worlds. He ain't never gonna drop weight in an effort to win a GT, so that shouldn't be part of the discussion.

Agree, Cancellara shouldn't drop the weight, look at Wiggins, he dropped the weight for GTs and the power dropped. Should have kept the weight and power an try Ullrich-ing it up the hill.
Cancellara has a great chance of winning all 5 but Lombardia is too late in the season and to close to worlds and LBL clashes with PR and RVV. It would take serious prioritizing and sacrificing other results in order to do it.
By the way, how about Boonen? he's belgian.

 

[El Pistolero]

He has shown no intrest in LBL or Giro di Lombardia. He really wants to win MSR. He also said he's going to train on his time trial capabilities. Perhaps he's thinking about winning MSR à la Cancellara.

 

[ingsve]

To be honest.... I see him turning into Thor Hushovd. A good sprinter with some climbing legs, solid on the cobbles, and a good TT (though Thor has let his TT go a bit over the years). Winning the climbing monuments doesn't seem likely to me.

I hope he doesn't go the same route as Hushovd did. Hushovd spent several years focusing pretty much only on sprinting while doing some classics on the side and it's only with age and thoughness that he has gotten big success in classics.

EBH is a much bigger versatile talent than Hushovd was and it would be a waste of his talent if EBH focused his training only on sprinting. He should focus on thoughness, cobbles, shorter climbs to improve while still maintaining good speed and simply rely on gaining experience to get better at bunch sprinting rather than specific sprint training.