Giro 2013: Stage-by-stage analysis

[Eshnar]

So, while we're in off season I thought it would be nice to analyze the next Giro route in a deeper way than just a brief comment and a rating.
It would be nice to do the same for the Tour and Vuelta, but I won't do it don't have so much waste time.

STAGE 1: Napoli - Napoli 130 kms

Technical overview:
One of the stages that changed the most since the presentation, and the one that definitely lost almost everything of interest.
The new stage has two different circuits: the first is 16 kms long and will be repeated 4 times. This circuit features a 4th category GPM (cobbled for the most part) that would be interesting if this was the final circuit. That's not the case sadly. The second circuit is very short and totally flat. 8 kms to be repeated 8 times. Almost track racing, if not for the sharp bends the riders will have to face.

What to expect:
It was meant to be a tricky stage, but now it will be a bunch sprint, no questions. The breakaway will have a go on the first circuit and it could be difficult to chase on that final little circuit, but I reckon the sprinters' teams will do the math right.
Having such a short final circuit should also increase the stress in the peloton, so someone will definitely crash.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE2: Ischia - Forio 17.4 kms TTT

Technical overview:
Very strange TTT, short and twisty. Only 17.4 kms with a lot of false flats (3-4%), especially in the first half. I've
never been in Ischia so I don't know how windy it is. It shouldn't be much.

What to expect:
I expect very small gaps. The average speed won't be high, I guess the winning time will stay well above 20 minutes.

STAGE3: Sorrento - Marina Di Ascea 222 kms

Technical overview:
An interesting medium mountain stage, that can be divided into three parts. The first one goes through the famous coast
of Amalfi, twisty and full of little climbs. The second part is dead flat along the coast. The third part features two
climbs back to back, with the finish immediatly after the final descent. The first of these two climbs have been changed due to a landslip, and the new climb chosen is somewhat harder than the original, but worse linked to the other. Both of them aren't very steep, especially the last one. The final descent, though,
is quite technical and it could create the chance for an attack (there are only two flat kms after it).

What to expect:
This will go either to the break or to a descender (Nibali?) with a late attack. There's no much time to gain on the
descent (10-15 seconds at most), but you have to take into account the time bonus.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE4: Policastro Bussentino - Serra San Bruno 246 kms

Technical overview:
246 kms, 187 of which are along the coast, before two climbs. The first one, to Vibo
Valentia, is little more than a false flat. The second one is the climb of Croce Ferrata, 12.7 kms at 5.5% average.
As you can see on the profile, the first half is steeper than the last one. At the top there are still 5 flat kms to
go before the finish.

What to expect:
Probably a breakaway. If not, a second tier could attack and take the win (and, who knows, the jersey). I'll be very
surprised if gc guys will bother. If they will, this will end in a 30 riders sprint.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE5: Cosenza - Matera 203 kms

Technical overview:
203 kms, most of which along a windy coast and with a hilly finale. A stage not to be underestimated. These are the
final kms:

The wall of Montescaglioso is 3 kms long at over 8% average, with some steeper sections. The final drag to Matera is
approximately 6 kms at 4.5%, with the last 5 kms of false flats. I don't see any sprinter surviving this. Stage hunters
will be pleased with this first week of the Giro...

What to expect:
This is perfect for second tiers, and maybe a small breakaway will take this. In any case there won't be a massive sprint
so everyone has chances.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE6: Mola Di Bari - Margherita Di Savoia 169 kms

Technical overview:
A shortish (169 kms), flat stage with long sections along the coast (with high chance of wind). The riders will pass a first time through the finish before having two laps in a 16 kms long circuit.

What to expect:
Bunch sprint definitely. Only crosswinds could make this interesting.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE7: San Salvo - Pescara 177 kms

Technical overview:
Very hilly stage, 177 kms with only 4 categorised climbs, but there are more of them. The riders will have to face a lot of climbing from the very start of the stage, without long flat sections. Of this lot of climbs, the most famous ones are those of Chieti (the same, very steep walls of the last Tirrenos). After those, 8 kms of flat will lead the peloton to the climb of S.Maria De Criptis, a very irregular climb with a very steep wall at the top. After the short descent there will be a tricky terrain, with a couple of short walls too. After that, finally, the peloton will hit the final wall of San Silvestro, 1.3 kms at 8.5%, with a steeper middle sector. After a technical descent there will be only 4.5 kms left, on flat and straight roads.

What to expect:
Pretty much everything. Imho this stage will go to the breakaway unless a stage hunter keeps control of the race. Gc guys will likely be too worried by stage 8 to make a move. In case the breakaway has been caught, someone could make a move on the final wall though.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE8: Gabicce Mare - Saltara 54.8 kms ITT

Technical overview:
Long and technical ITT. 54.8 kms with a very twisty (and beautiful) first part (through the road of Monte San Bartolo featured
in this year's stage 5). The second part goes through easier roads, including the final climb to Saltara, with a nasty final km.
Last kms:

What to expect:
More than one hour of effort in a very difficult course. Enormous gaps. Wiggins will take around 3 minutes
(probably more) to anyone.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE9: San Sepolcro - Firenze 170 kms

Technical overview:
A classic medium mountain stage course, with 170 kms through 4 categorised climbs, finishing into the next WC host but there won't be the circuit that we'll see next October, unlike what they previously showed us.
After a gentle start, the riders will climb Passo Della Consuma (16 kms at 4.4%, including flat sections that lower the average gradient), Vallombrosa (11.5 kms at 6%) and Vetta Le Croci (4 kms at 9%), before entering the WC circuit from the bottom of Fiesole and climbing what they will descend at the worlds. The peloton will then descend the side they'll be climbing at the WC and have 4 kms of flat before the final drag of 2 kms at 3%. The climb to Fiesole (2.7 kms at 6%), perfectly linked with Vetta Le Croci, should be enough to see some action (maybe the previous climb too).

What to expect:
The next day is a rest so gc-guys will give a try. Plus this stage is after the huge ITT so a lot of guys will start to hurry and try to regain time.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE 10: Cordenons - Altopiano Del Montasio 167 kms

Technical overview:
After the rest day, the peloton will restart full gas to tackle the first MTF of the race. The menu features two climbs the Giro never used in its history: the Passo Cason Di Lanza and the Altopiano Del Montasio. Of the 167 kms of the stage, the first 90 are a long and gentle false flat. Then, after a non categorised climb, leading the peloton into the town of Paularo, the riders will start the first top-category climb of the race.

After a very technical descent to Pontebba, 12 kms of descending false flat will bring the peloton to Chiusaforte, where the last climb officially starts.

The first 11 kms are just a false flat, but this climb is a genuine HC (or 1st in the Giro, whatever) even without them.

What to expect:
The top gc guys will start the battle on the last climb steepest section no doubt. The Passo Cason Di Lanza will see the formation of a counter-breakaway made of 5-6 second tiers, with 4-5 minutes of gap in gc. This, unless the ITT had produced a disaster in gc (if Wiggo has 4 minutes on everyone I expect something more to happen).

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE11: Tarvisio (Cave Del Predil) - Vajont (Erto E Casso) 182 kms

Technical overview:
Another medium mountain stage, 182 kms with the long, steady climb of Sella Ciampigotto (approx. 30 kms at 4%) and the final "MTF", the Vajont (Passo Di Sant'Osvaldo). There were two kms of flat after the climb, but now they've been dropped, so this is an uphill sprint. In between, lots of valleys.
This is the final climb:

What to expect:
Uphill sprint. Before I was sure this would have gone to the breakaway but with the change I'm pretty sure the favourites will want the bonus seconds.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE12: Longarone - Treviso 134 kms

Technical overview:
Short and relatively flat stage, but the sprinters will really have to sweat here. The two categorised climbs aren't a piece of cake.
In the end, the rumours about the Giro tackling the Montello were true... but unfortunately they'll climb a tarmac road. After that, 33 kms of flat.

Ca' Del Poggio:

Montello:

What to expect:
A bunch sprint, but without the weakest spinters. The bunch will fly over the Montello and who'll be left behind will be screwed.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE13: Busseto - Cherasco 254 kms

Technical overview:
The longest stage of the Giro, flat on paper, but it won't feature a bunch sprint. 254 kms with 180 kms totally flat, before some hills. Here are the final kms:

As you can see, the GPM of Tre Cuni (approx 10 kms at 5%), precedes two other small bumps near the end. The final 6 kms are perfectly flat and straight.

What to expect:
Breakaway by a mile... seeing that the next stages will be a lot more important.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE14: Cervere - Bardonecchia (Jafferau) 168 kms

Technical overview:
Second MTF of the race, with 168 kms over two climbs: The overly famous Sestriere (39 kms at 3.8%) and the climb to Jafferau (7.2 kms at 9%), previously used only once in the Giro, in 1972. At the time the climb was on sterrato, but today it's surfaced.

What to expect:
Nothing until the final climb, that's for sure. The Jafferau is short and steep so we'll see something like PDBF 2012.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE15: Cesana Torinese - Col Du Galibier (Valloire) 149 kms

Technical overview:
Another MTF, this time more serious. The length of the stage is poor (149 kms) but it's definitely harder than the previous mountain stages. The Moncenisio (25.7 kms at 6.2%) will be a good warm up for the Telegraphe/Galibier combo (which as far as I'm concerned is one climb, not two). The altitude will be a factor, as much as the weather, which will be a serious issue over all the second half of this Giro.

What to expect:
The first big battle for GC. Whoever is way behind in GC could even try from the Telegraphe but more likely the real action will start in the last 10 kms.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE16: Valloire - Ivrea 238 kms

Technical overview:
This is perhaps the most underrated stage of the Giro. One of the few (if not "the only") hilly stages in which GC riders can definitely battle it out. 238 kms starting with the descent of Telegraphe and a long drag all the way to the top of Mont Cenis, then, after the descent, almost 120 kms of flat. Finally, after a first passage through Ivrea, the road goes up towards the climb of Andrate (6.4 kms at 8.4%) which isn't exactly easy, as you can see by the profile of the final kms. The descent is quite fast and technical, and after that there will be 8 flat kms (the original stage had a more irregular false flat and a shorter descent). This stage is a perfect trap: long stage, straight after the rest day, climb not long but steep enough, descent.

What to expect:
As I said, I have high expectation for this. In any case, a break could win it but GC riders will definitely do something, whether for the time bonuses or not.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE17: Caravaggio - Vicenza 214 kms

Technical overview:
No easy stages in this race. This time it's another flat stage of 214 kms with the climb of Crosara (6kms at 5.7%) at 16 kms to go. Don't let the average gradient fool you, because this climb has some nasty kms. The descent is very fast and ends at 8 kms to go, flat with large roads.
Final kms:

What to expect:
I don't think any sprinter can make it. Will a hilly guy try something? Or will this go to the breakaway?

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE18: Mori - La Polsa 20.6 kms MTT

Technical overview:
An unusual MTT for the Giro. The climb of La Polsa is long and fairly gentle, with two stretches at over 6% and a more irregular and easy sector in the middle. A MTT of pure power.

What to expect:
This could provide big gaps among the favorites... Wiggins FTW.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE19: Ponte Di Legno - Val Martello/Martelltal 139 kms

Technical overview:
Silly stage at high altitude, awfully short, with 3 HCs. The peloton will start immediatly the awesome and never used combo from the Gavia(16.5 kms at 8%) to the Stelvio (easy side again, 21.7 kms at 7.2%), featuring two most difficult descents which could be more decisive than the climbs.
What ruins everything is the 20 kms of flat in the valley before the never used climb of Val Martello, which despite being an HC on its own pales in comparison to its neighbours.

What to expect:
This stage comes after the MTT (which could cause all sort of havoc in the GC) but before the queen stage, so it's not easy to predict what will happen. Surely, if a guy like Nibali puts the hammer down on the descent of the Stelvio, (maybe after a little dig at the end of the climb) we'll have fun, while Wiggins won't. The valley is quite windy so one man alone cannot do anything. The composition of the breakaway will be crucial. So the Gavia is likely to be raced at full gas, and this will hurt many.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE20: Silandro/Schlanders - Tre Cime Di Lavaredo 203 kms

Technical overview:
As usual, the Giro queen stage is the 20th. The only MTF with a serious lenght (202 kms), with the classic amount of 5 GPMs. The first climb of the day comes after 64 kms of flat: the Passo Costalunga(25.3 kms at 5.7%, not exactly a third category) will bring us into the Dolomites: first the famous Passo S.Pellegrino (from the easy side, 11.7 kms at 6.4%), then the keypoint of the stage (and probably of the Giro), the Passo Giau(15.6 kms at 8%), with a tricky descent. Finally, the classic combo Of Tre Croci/Tre Cime Di Lavaredo, one of the most mithical Giro arrivals.

What to expect:
The climb to the Tre Cime is very steep but is short enough to give the riders the chance to attack earlier. On paper, depending on the GC situation, things can blow up from the Giau on. If the GC is closed, this will be decided on the final kms only.

 

[Eshnar]

STAGE21: Riese Pio X - Brescia 197 kms

Technical overview:
And after years repeating that RCS wanted to have always a GC stage as the final one, we get... a pan flat stage, with a little climb in the middle.
Disappointing.
The circuit is 6.7 kms long and the last time it was used Cipollini won, so it's not very difficult.

What to expect:
A bunch sprint... if there ARE still sprinters that bothered to finish the race.




ROUTE ANALYSIS FINISHED.
You can now post whatever you want

 

[Cyivel]

Cheers for doing this

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Good stuff Eshnar . The more I look at this route, the more I like it.

 

[airstream]

The main thing is not to forget this thread exists in May!

 

[Eshnar]

The main thing is not to forget this thread exists in May!

I won't!

 

[Netserk]

Gazzetta says that the second rest day is after Galiber (which is also what Eshnar posted, so it is the one I'll believe), and Steephill says it is after the next stage. It makes me