Giro 2013: Stage-by-stage analysis

[Zam_Olyas]

Very good thread.

 

[burning]

Loved the thread, thanks so much

 

[Bavarianrider]

Great job, the route looks awesome! Purito will destroy the competitors like he did in La Vuelta.

He'll lose 6 minutes in that TT

 

[UpTheRoad]

He'll lose 6 minutes in that TT

Presumably to Wiggins, of course. That is fine if it is he can make up the ground elsewhere. Didn't he have 8-9 minutes on Froome by the end of the Vuelta?

Not saying that the scenarios will be similar (or even nearly similar), but it may be possible for Purito to drop so much time to Wiggins in the TT and make it up in the mountains.

 

[Sophistic]

dont see why wiggins should this instead of the tour, the first half of the flat itt is so technical(+the climb at the end) that i dont see him taking thaaat much from the punchier climbers.

 

[skidmark]

Awesome. This is a lot to chew on... taking a closer look at the Giro route, I really like a lot of the stage design, especially the first week and the time trials. Unfortunately, I hate some other elements of the stage design, such as the mostly short and 3-or-less-climb mountain stages, and the amount of flat before anything in several stages. All they had to do was change one of the shorter mountain stages to be 60km longer with 2 more climbs, and throw something other than pan-flat into the first 100km of a few more stages, and they would have had a great route. As it is, pretty good, but I guess it's hard to go wrong in Italy.

Oh and the last stage wtf.

 

[Afrank]

dont see why wiggins should this instead of the tour, the first half of the flat itt is so technical(+the climb at the end) that i dont see him taking thaaat much from the punchier climbers.

Because he could never beat guys like Contador, Froome, and Schleck (if he gets back to form) on the parcours of the tour. Too much competition, too much climbing, and not enough time trialing to win the tour again. So he decided he might as well go to the Giro where the parcours suit him more and where he will have a better chance of winning or getting on the podium. Probably a good decision by him to go for the Giro instead, but I think the climbers will get the better of him.

 

[SafeBet]

The main thing is not to forget this thread exists in May!

Have it sticked from now on. It sure will be more interesting than 90% of the threads created come winter time

Seriously, amazing job Eshnar. You're the boss

 

[MatParker117]

Presumably to Wiggins, of course. That is fine if it is he can make up the ground elsewhere. Didn't he have 8-9 minutes on Froome by the end of the Vuelta?

Not saying that the scenarios will be similar (or even nearly similar), but it may be possible for Purito to drop so much time to Wiggins in the TT and make it up in the mountains.

Wiggins won't be as spent as Froome was at the Vuelta. Plus if Sky are in 2012 Tour form they won't let Purito have a hope in hell of doing that.

 

[Bavarianrider]

dont see why wiggins should this instead of the tour, the first half of the flat itt is so technical(+the climb at the end) that i dont see him taking thaaat much from the punchier climbers.

IT's actually not that technical.
Almost all of those corners in the first part can be done at full throttle. It's not like this are stop and go corners.
This is a perfect TT for a guy like Wiggins.

 

[The Hitch]

Presumably to Wiggins, of course. That is fine if it is he can make up the ground elsewhere. Didn't he have 8-9 minutes on Froome by the end of the Vuelta?

Not saying that the scenarios will be similar (or even nearly similar), but it may be possible for Purito to drop so much time to Wiggins in the TT and make it up in the mountains.

Purito doesnt have Contador to follow in the mountains this time He doesn't strike me as the type to try to break guys in the mountains all on his lonesome.

 

[Cult Classics]

Consensus seems to be that the Giro is easier than the Tour this year... I don't see it at all. Similar overall distance. 6 mountain stages in the Tour versus 5 in the Giro, but the Giro has 5 summit finishes to the Tour's 4. The Giro has a staggering 9 ascents of 2000m altitude or higher this year - that is tough. The Tour has just two (at 2000m and 2001m - the highest point we see in a grand tour in France this year will be when the Giro finishes on the Galibier) but granted Alpe d'Huez and Ventoux are still killers even if they're not as elevated. Against the clock the total difference is just 2km in favour of the Giro, though there's a 10km difference individually. The main difference is the long ITT of 56km in the Giro, though that said the other ITT in Italy is all uphill. I'm not saying it's an easy Tour, but the Giro most definitely is not a soft option. In terms of Wiggins, I think this Giro is a much tougher task than the 2012 Tour was - the Stelvio, Galibier, Giau, Gavia, Sestrieres and Tre Cime will not be easy.

 

[The Hitch]

Consensus seems to be that the Giro is easier than the Tour this year... I don't see it at all. Similar overall distance. 6 mountain stages in the Tour versus 5 in the Giro, but the Giro has 5 summit finishes to the Tour's 4. The Giro has a staggering 9 ascents of 2000m altitude or higher this year - that is tough. The Tour has just two (at 2000m and 2001m - the highest point we see in a grand tour in France this year will be when the Giro finishes on the Galibier) but granted Alpe d'Huez and Ventoux are still killers even if they're not as elevated. Against the clock the total difference is just 2km in favour of the Giro, though there's a 10km difference individually. The main difference is the long ITT of 56km in the Giro, though that said the other ITT in Italy is all uphill. I'm not saying it's an easy Tour, but the Giro most definitely is not a soft option. In terms of Wiggins, I think this Giro is a much tougher task than the 2012 Tour was - the Stelvio, Galibier, Giau, Gavia, Sestrieres and Tre Cime will not be easy.

the only people who think the tour is harder than the giro next year are the usual morons who hype the tour to extreme lenghts and think alpe d huez twice is some monster new breed stage that will have the peloton on their feet dragging their bikes over the line.

 

[hfer07]

looking closely- the first week is hard !! stages 3, 4 & 5 are averaging 200k with hilly terrain-very demanding & appropriate for breakaways. With those lengths- the race has to be controlled by the main GC teams early on. These conditions can create early surprises if a breakaway success with a good rouller taking over the maglia rosa for the entire week.

fast forward- after stage 14 is all about the title-there is no place to hide anymore.......
I actually changed my mind about this Giro's rate & was wrong-this one looks very promising

 

[Alphabet]

I don't think Purito has much of a chance. With a time trial like that, Wiggins could put 4 minutes into him, which I can't see Purito taking back on the climbs. Even on the MTT, I fancy Wiggins to put in another 90 seconds or more into Purito.

Also, thanks Eshnar for a great write up .

 

[Ferminal]

I think this Giro is a much tougher task than the 2012 Tour was - the Stelvio, Galibier, Giau, Gavia, Sestrieres and Tre Cime will not be easy.

Roughly listing them,

Tour has:

Pailheres
Ventoux
Sarenne
Huez
Glandon
Madeleine
Semnoz

So 7 proper HC+ climbs.

Giro has:

Passo Cason di Lanza
Cenis
Telegraphe-Galibier
Gavia
Stelvio
Martello
Giau
Tre Croci-Tre Cime

8

In absence of the list @ Plataforma Recorridos:

Telegraphe-Galibier
Ventoux
Cenis
Tre Croci-Tre Cime
Gavia
Cason di Lanza
Madeleine
Stelvio
Sarenne
Pailheres
Giau
Semnoz
Huez
Glandon
Martello

Just a guess.

So around 5 of the hardest 6 are in the Giro.

Tour has 2 stages with 2 HC. Giro has 1 stage with 3 HC and 2 stages with 2HC. Which means the Giro has at least one HC on 4 stages whilst for the Tour it is 5.

 

[greenedge]

1,3,5,7 and 17 all seem perfect for Sagan if Cannondale can control it. If not Moser.

Thx for the thread.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I hope Gilbert will do the Giro instead of Tour. At least part of the Giro. Sounds like a way better plan, no? Giro and then Vuelta as Worlds preparation.

 

[Cult Classics]

I hope Gilbert will do the Giro instead of Tour. At least part of the Giro. Sounds like a way better plan, no? Giro and then Vuelta as Worlds preparation.

I'd like to see it but I can't see it. He does so much racing during classics season. He's more or less the only big name classics rider to do all the races (he skips Roubaix but he'll do most races from Omloop, Strade Bianche through to Liege), so it just seems unlikely he'd do the Giro too. Higher chance of either kicking back at the tour of Belgium or fulfilling some sponsor obligations in the rainbow at the tour of California I think.

 

[Netserk]

He should be a/the favourite for stages: 3, 5, 7, 9 & 13. And an outsider for 4, 11 & 17. IMO he should start and then DNS stage 14.

 

[the asian]

Consensus seems to be that the Giro is easier than the Tour this year... I don't see it at all.

Giro is tougher than the Tour. Don't think many said otherwise.

1,3,5,7 and 17 all seem perfect for Sagan if Cannondale can control it. If not Moser.

Thx for the thread.

Hopefully Sagan would not win stage 3. It's the only stage where Nibali can attack on the descent. For the other stages he should be favourite.

 

[Descender]

Roughly listing them,

Tour has:

Pailheres
Ventoux
Sarenne
Huez
Glandon
Madeleine
Semnoz

So 7 proper HC+ climbs.

Giro has:

Passo Cason di Lanza
Cenis
Telegraphe-Galibier
Gavia
Stelvio
Martello
Giau
Tre Croci-Tre Cime

8

In absence of the list @ Plataforma Recorridos:

Telegraphe-Galibier
Ventoux
Cenis
Tre Croci-Tre Cime
Gavia
Cason di Lanza
Madeleine
Stelvio
Sarenne
Pailheres
Giau
Semnoz
Huez
Glandon
Martello

Just a guess.

So around 5 of the hardest 6 are in the Giro.

Tour has 2 stages with 2 HC. Giro has 1 stage with 3 HC and 2 stages with 2HC. Which means the Giro has at least one HC on 4 stages whilst for the Tour it is 5.

I'd say Madeleine and Stelvio are too low and Tre Cime too high.

 

[Eshnar]

I'd say Madeleine and Stelvio are too low and Tre Cime too high.

And Costalunga is definitely an HC.
And we could argue whether Sestriere is on not.

 

[Afrank]

I hope Gilbert will do the Giro instead of Tour. At least part of the Giro. Sounds like a way better plan, no? Giro and then Vuelta as Worlds preparation.

Well, Gilbert said he was unsure of if he will do the tour so he might try to take his classics form into the Giro and go for a couple stages. I think it would be a good idea, and he will definitely have more chance at the Giro than he would at the tour. Plus it would work well with his preparation for worlds.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/gilbert-unsure-on-tour-de-france-participation

1,3,5,7 and 17 all seem perfect for Sagan if Cannondale can control it. If not Moser.

Thx for the thread.

I can't see Sagan skipping the tour for the Giro at this point. It would be a good race for him but he has a points jersey to defend both in California and the tour. Plus Sagan seems to really like California, he does it every year and wins there every year.

 

[Gloin22]

Well, Gilbert said he was unsure of if he will do the tour so he might try to take his classics form into the Giro and go for a couple stages. I think it would be a good idea, and he will definitely have more chance at the Giro than he would at the tour. Plus it would work well with his preparation for worlds.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/gilbert-unsure-on-tour-de-france-participation



I can't see Sagan skipping the tour for the Giro at this point. It would be a good race for him but he has a points jersey to defend both in California and the tour. Plus Sagan seems to really like California, he does it every year and wins there every year.

Plus Cannondale is the main sponsor, they're American team now and AtoC is more important for them than Giro. Sagan will do AtoC, I am sure of it.