Giro 2017 Field Discussion/Speculation

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Almost 70 kilometres of flat time trial in the Giro, a good and balanced amount. Here's a rank of how I'd expect them to perform:

1. Tom Dumoulin
2. Rohan Dennis (lets consider him a GC-contender until proven otherwise)
3. Jungels
4. Pinot
5. Mollema
6. G. Thomas
7. König
8. Nibali
9. Kruijswijk
10. TJ
11. Quintana
12. Aru
13. Landa

Theres obviously 2 standout time trialists, but apart from that, 3rd-12th is relatively even. Only Landa stands out as a below average time trialist in this field which on paper is a very good time trial-field.

Looks pretty good, I'd switch Mollema and Nibali.

Agree, especially in Italy. Nibali in Italy is much better than Nibali anywhere else for some reason.

Great list though and really shows how nicely balanced the Giro route could be. I'm not convinced Dumoulin, Dennis, Thomas and Jungels climb well enough to seriousy win overall, but the rest all look dangerous if they are going well.

Quintana is the big question mark I guess. If he comes in near to top form then he'd have to be an odds on favourite. But if he's even holding a tiny bit back for the Tour, it brings him back to the bunch. Great to have so many wild cards like Landa, Kruijswijk, Pinot even TJVG - who could go really well or could disappear completely.

 

[Escarabajo]

I know I am in the wrong thread, but I never bet so that's why I never go there. But every now and then I like to check the odds this far just to sense how people see the riders chances.

Nairo Quintana 6/4
Vicenzo Nibali 4/1
Steven Kruijswijk 8/1
Fabio Aru 8/1
Mikel Landa 11/1
Bauke Mollema 14/1
Esteban Chaves 14/1
Tom Dumoulin 14/1
Thibaut Pinot 14/1
Ilnur Zakarin 20/1
Rigoberto Uran 25/1
Tejay Van Garderen 33/1
Geraint Thomas 33/1

Quintana is the favorite. No surprise there. But I would have thought that with two recent podiums in 2016 Chaves would be higher in the bets.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I know I am in the wrong thread, but I never bet so that's why I never go there. But every now and then I like to check the odds this far just to sense how people see the riders chances.

Nairo Quintana 6/4
Vicenzo Nibali 4/1
Steven Kruijswijk 8/1
Fabio Aru 8/1
Mikel Landa 11/1
Bauke Mollema 14/1
Esteban Chaves 14/1
Tom Dumoulin 14/1
Thibaut Pinot 14/1
Ilnur Zakarin 20/1
Rigoberto Uran 25/1
Tejay Van Garderen 33/1
Geraint Thomas 33/1

Quintana is the favorite. No surprise there. But I would have thought that with two recent podiums in 2016 Chaves would be higher in the bets.

I'd have thought Chaves would be a bit higher as well. I guess the consensus may be that he is a decent bet for podium but unlikely to overhaul both Quintana and Nibali. Whereas the likes of Landa, Kruijswijk and Aru could do anything. They could win, or they could finish outside the top 10. Bookies not prepared to risk making any of them a long shot, while Chaves is a bit more predictable in his ability.

At this stage, until form and motivation becomes clear, there doesn't look any good bets though. Quintana is the clear favourite, but you can't bet on him at close to evens.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

Quintana is the favorite. No surprise there. But I would have thought that with two recent podiums in 2016 Chaves would be higher in the bets.

Chaves will likely have to race the Tour de France instead. I'm guessing Orica will send Adam Yates to the Giro.

Orica seemed to imply that the core of their TDF team was at the recent TDU

 

[GambadiLegno]

I can't see Quintana as the main favourite because of a reason, he's focused on the Tour de France. He'll ride Giro at 90%, he'll be there to win, but not taking any risk, not pushing as hard as in the Tour, and most important, not mentally motivated as he's for the Tour.

The thing is that even at 90% he's one of the favourites, but guys like Kruisjwijk, Nibali, Aru or Chaves have the Giro as their top objective of the year, and that counts a lot. For us IMO it will be better, with Quintana thinking in the Tour too, the others can be at his athletic level.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I can't see Quintana as the main favourite because of a reason, he's focused on the Tour de France. He'll ride Giro at 90%, he'll be there to win, but not taking any risk, not pushing as hard as in the Tour, and most important, not mentally motivated as he's for the Tour.

The thing is that even at 90% he's one of the favourites, but guys like Kruisjwijk, Nibali, Aru or Chaves have the Giro as their top objective of the year, and that counts a lot. For us IMO it will be better, with Quintana thinking in the Tour too, the others can be at his athletic level.

I think it would be a major error if Quintana turned up at the Giro at 90%. He'd basically be throwing away his shot at both GTs if he did that; he's very unlikely to beat Froome at the Tour even on top form with no Giro in his legs, and wouldn't beat Nibali at the Giro unless he's close to 100%. He's got to go all out for the Giro and then see what he has left for the Tour - try for the GC but if the Giro took too much out of him he can still stagehunt or help Valverde.

That's not to say you're wrong though - he may well try to do it. Maybe riding so strongly in his second GT last year has convinced him and Movistar that doing the Giro is the best prep for the Tour. But it almost certainly isn't.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I know I am in the wrong thread, but I never bet so that's why I never go there. But every now and then I like to check the odds this far just to sense how people see the riders chances.

Nairo Quintana 6/4
Vicenzo Nibali 4/1
Steven Kruijswijk 8/1
Fabio Aru 8/1
Mikel Landa 11/1
Bauke Mollema 14/1
Esteban Chaves 14/1
Tom Dumoulin 14/1
Thibaut Pinot 14/1
Ilnur Zakarin 20/1
Rigoberto Uran 25/1
Tejay Van Garderen 33/1
Geraint Thomas 33/1

Quintana is the favorite. No surprise there. But I would have thought that with two recent podiums in 2016 Chaves would be higher in the bets.

Since he isn't confirmed. If he was to be confirmed, his odds would hover between 8-10 like Kruijswijk, Aru and Landa.

 

[Singer01]

I am very excited for the Giro, having so many people who could theoretically win makes me salivate for 3 weeks in italy.

 

[portugal11]

Re:

I know I am in the wrong thread, but I never bet so that's why I never go there. But every now and then I like to check the odds this far just to sense how people see the riders chances.

Nairo Quintana 6/4
Vicenzo Nibali 4/1
Steven Kruijswijk 8/1
Fabio Aru 8/1
Mikel Landa 11/1
Bauke Mollema 14/1
Esteban Chaves 14/1
Tom Dumoulin 14/1
Thibaut Pinot 14/1
Ilnur Zakarin 20/1
Rigoberto Uran 25/1
Tejay Van Garderen 33/1
Geraint Thomas 33/1

Quintana is the favorite. No surprise there. But I would have thought that with two recent podiums in 2016 Chaves would be higher in the bets.

Dumoulin has a very low odd. This is strange because tom isn't a confirmed gt rider.

 

[Ikbengodniet]

Re: Re:

I know I am in the wrong thread, but I never bet so that's why I never go there. But every now and then I like to check the odds this far just to sense how people see the riders chances.

Nairo Quintana 6/4
Vicenzo Nibali 4/1
Steven Kruijswijk 8/1
Fabio Aru 8/1
Mikel Landa 11/1
Bauke Mollema 14/1
Esteban Chaves 14/1
Tom Dumoulin 14/1
Thibaut Pinot 14/1
Ilnur Zakarin 20/1
Rigoberto Uran 25/1
Tejay Van Garderen 33/1
Geraint Thomas 33/1

Quintana is the favorite. No surprise there. But I would have thought that with two recent podiums in 2016 Chaves would be higher in the bets.

Dumoulin has a very low odd. This is strange because tom isn't a confirmed gt rider.

Neither is Landa.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

I know I am in the wrong thread, but I never bet so that's why I never go there. But every now and then I like to check the odds this far just to sense how people see the riders chances.

Nairo Quintana 6/4
Vicenzo Nibali 4/1
Steven Kruijswijk 8/1
Fabio Aru 8/1
Mikel Landa 11/1
Bauke Mollema 14/1
Esteban Chaves 14/1
Tom Dumoulin 14/1
Thibaut Pinot 14/1
Ilnur Zakarin 20/1
Rigoberto Uran 25/1
Tejay Van Garderen 33/1
Geraint Thomas 33/1

Quintana is the favorite. No surprise there. But I would have thought that with two recent podiums in 2016 Chaves would be higher in the bets.

Dumoulin has a very low odd. This is strange because tom isn't a confirmed gt rider.

The more people who bet on him relative to other riders, the lower his betting odds. I guess Dumoulin has MANY more Dutch fans than Mollema does, as the former's odds are indeed comically low.

 

[Red Rick]

Only Quintana and Nibali look interesting. Rest seems pretty low to me and Chaves being in there while he's not riding is just a scam imo.

 

[HelloDolly]

Adam Yates came 4th in the Tour and doesn;t even make the list...His brother was 5th at the Vuelta and he is not on it either

These boys can do top 5 ...not sure which one wil lbe there ....

 

[Red Rick]

Definitely rating the Yates bro's higher than Thomas, TJVG, Uran and Chaves.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Only Quintana and Nibali look interesting. Rest seems pretty low to me and Chaves being in there while he's not riding is just a scam imo.

I see you haven't boarded the Landa hype-train for this season yet

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Re: Re:

I know I am in the wrong thread, but I never bet so that's why I never go there. But every now and then I like to check the odds this far just to sense how people see the riders chances.

Nairo Quintana 6/4
Vicenzo Nibali 4/1
Steven Kruijswijk 8/1
Fabio Aru 8/1
Mikel Landa 11/1
Bauke Mollema 14/1
Esteban Chaves 14/1
Tom Dumoulin 14/1
Thibaut Pinot 14/1
Ilnur Zakarin 20/1
Rigoberto Uran 25/1
Tejay Van Garderen 33/1
Geraint Thomas 33/1

Quintana is the favorite. No surprise there. But I would have thought that with two recent podiums in 2016 Chaves would be higher in the bets.

Dumoulin has a very low odd. This is strange because tom isn't a confirmed gt rider.

The more people who bet on him relative to other riders, the lower his betting odds. I guess Dumoulin has MANY more Dutch fans than Mollema does, as the former's odds are indeed comically low.

Giro Fantasy is gonna be really hard this year...

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Adam Yates came 4th in the Tour and doesn;t even make the list...His brother was 5th at the Vuelta and he is not on it either

These boys can do top 5 ...not sure which one wil lbe there ....

... because they aren't confirmed. Jeez.

I think Landa had big chances of winning in 2015 where he clearly was the strongest climber and in 2016. For 2017, I don't really believe that much in him, unfortunately.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

Adam Yates came 4th in the Tour and doesn;t even make the list...His brother was 5th at the Vuelta and he is not on it either

These boys can do top 5 ...not sure which one wil lbe there ....

... because they aren't confirmed. Jeez.

I think Landa had big chances of winning in 2015 where he clearly was the strongest climber and in 2016. For 2017, I don't really believe that much in him, unfortunately.

Well Jeeez alot on the list aren't confirmed either ..LIke Chabes, Uran .. maybe try not to be rude

 

[yaco]

Re:

Adam Yates came 4th in the Tour and doesn;t even make the list...His brother was 5th at the Vuelta and he is not on it either

These boys can do top 5 ...not sure which one wil lbe there ....

I believe both Yates boys are riding the Giro.

 

[MADRAZO]

Re: Re:

I know I am in the wrong thread, but I never bet so that's why I never go there. But every now and then I like to check the odds this far just to sense how people see the riders chances.

Nairo Quintana 6/4
Vicenzo Nibali 4/1
Steven Kruijswijk 8/1
Fabio Aru 8/1
Mikel Landa 11/1
Bauke Mollema 14/1
Esteban Chaves 14/1
Tom Dumoulin 14/1
Thibaut Pinot 14/1
Ilnur Zakarin 20/1
Rigoberto Uran 25/1
Tejay Van Garderen 33/1
Geraint Thomas 33/1

Quintana is the favorite. No surprise there. But I would have thought that with two recent podiums in 2016 Chaves would be higher in the bets.

Since he isn't confirmed. If he was to be confirmed, his odds would hover between 8-10 like Kruijswijk, Aru and Landa.

If bookies pay back bets for nonstarters (Im unsure about where these odds are taken from, most likely Paddypower some days ago, where I dont know the policy, but most UK-bookies do like 365 that offers 18/1 for him) then the odds should not reflect uncertaincy if he starts or not. I simply think the odds are just what they think his chances are in a very strong field. He was clearly below Kruijswijk last year and could not beat a Nibali that was in poor shape, and now Quintana comes a long with Mollema, Aru, Pinot, Van Garderen and wild cards Dumoulin and Landa. And also the route does not favor him much with the amount of time trialing. Chaves has a chance but has to improve a lot to get another podium or even win this year.

 

[Akuryo]

Also no love for Jungels? He was 6th last year and given his age should be able to improve on that result. I don't say that he will win but he should be at least be a consideration after his 2016 accomplishments. At leat better than Thomas, Zakarin or Dumoulin from that list ... and he is confirmed to be captain again.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Thats a good point, MADRAZO. I think they are paying back for non-starters and if thats the case, there is definitely value to be found in that odds. But Im pretty certain that Chaves won't ride anyways.

Time trial rankings v 2.0

1. Tom Dumoulin
2. Rohan Dennis (lets consider him a GC-contender until proven otherwise)
3. Jungels
4. Pinot
5. Mollema
6. G. Thomas
7. Amador
8. König
9. Nibali
10. Kruijswijk
11.Zakarin
12. Rui Costa
13.TJ
14. Quintana
15. Aru
16. Landa
17. Rolland

 

[portugal11]

Re:

Thats a good point, MADRAZO. I think they are paying back for non-starters and if thats the case, there is definitely value to be found in that odds. But Im pretty certain that Chaves won't ride anyways.

Time trial rankings v 2.0

1. Tom Dumoulin
2. Rohan Dennis (lets consider him a GC-contender until proven otherwise)
3. Jungels
4. Pinot
5. Mollema
6. G. Thomas
7. Amador
8. König
9. Nibali
10. Kruijswijk
11.Zakarin
12. Rui Costa
13.TJ
14. Quintana
15. Aru
16. Landa
17. Rolland

Why did you put mollema in fifth place?

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

Thats a good point, MADRAZO. I think they are paying back for non-starters and if thats the case, there is definitely value to be found in that odds. But Im pretty certain that Chaves won't ride anyways.

Time trial rankings v 2.0

1. Tom Dumoulin
2. Rohan Dennis (lets consider him a GC-contender until proven otherwise)
3. Jungels
4. Pinot
5. Mollema
6. G. Thomas
7. Amador
8. König
9. Nibali
10. Kruijswijk
11.Zakarin
12. Rui Costa
13.TJ
14. Quintana
15. Aru
16. Landa
17. Rolland

Why did you put mollema in fifth place?

Why do you ask?

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Thats a good point, MADRAZO. I think they are paying back for non-starters and if thats the case, there is definitely value to be found in that odds. But Im pretty certain that Chaves won't ride anyways.

Time trial rankings v 2.0

1. Tom Dumoulin
2. Rohan Dennis (lets consider him a GC-contender until proven otherwise)
3. Jungels
4. Pinot
5. Mollema
6. G. Thomas
7. Amador
8. König
9. Nibali
10. Kruijswijk
11.Zakarin
12. Rui Costa
13.TJ
14. Quintana
15. Aru
16. Landa
17. Rolland

Not sure if Pinot deserves to be that high up, and I think Nibali is a better time trialler than Konig. TJ can be pretty good too, as can Rui and Kruijswijk. There is a lot of good quality, but not exceptional, time triallers there, who are all at a similar level.