Giro 2017, stage 18: Moena - Ortisei 137 km

[sir fly]

Looking at the climbs, and thinking about what kind of effort they require...
What do you, people, think?

 

[Cookster15]

Dumoulin to bounce back! I must add, the Pordoi makes for stunning scenery for a bike race. Made more famous in recent years thanks to Top Gear. A bit easier in a Lamborghini though.

 

[Escarabajo]

Do you think that Nibali thinks he will get the 3 minutes with just on Pontives, Piancavallo and Grappa-Foza climbs?
He needs 2 minutes on Dumo before the final TT to be safe against him and Piancavallo stage doesn't suit Nibali. Actually Dumo can even gain time on Piancavallo.
I think Nibali will try something early if he manages to send 1-2 teammates into the breakaway.

I think everyone is underrating both stage 20 and how much expending energy fruitlessly can end up costing a GC contender. If Nibali/Quintana need minutes they'll look for them up Grappa.

Waiting to cut minutes in the last mountain stage will be a big mistake. Risk factor increases with the day. Fatigue and opportunity makes it hard to take time only on that one stage.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Zero chance NQ does anything before the last climb. Nibs though...I could see trying it from that penultimate climb.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Re: Re:

His descending yesterday was also faster than Nibali...

It wasn't - you're comparing to Landa's time I think.
That said, Dumoulin is a pretty good descender.

Very possible I made a brain fart. I thought I saw a graphic during today's stage comparing Quintana, Nibali and Dumoulin's descent times and top speeds, but it may have been other information...

 

[carton]

Waiting to cut minutes in the last mountain stage will be a big mistake. Risk factor increases with the day. Fatigue and opportunity makes it hard to take time only on that one stage.

Risk factor increases by multiples by going for broke. If they can take time of Dumoulin in the next three stages they won't need to.

there are 15 kms of flat between the end of Grappa descent and start of Foza climb.

You say that like it's a bad thing.

I mean, don't get me wrong, I'd love to see them go from the gun tomorrow. But that's what my strategic calculus puts out, FWIW.

 

[DFA123]

I think this an all-in stage for Bahrain from the start. This is potentially the stage where Nibali can win the race. They have to test Quintana hard to see if there are still any effects of the crash, and Dumoulin will fall by the way side.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Can't wait for the commentators to go on and on about how this is a really explosive stage, a modern way of thinking cycling etc etc.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Can't wait for the commentators to go on and on about how this is a really explosive stage, a modern way of thinking cycling etc etc.

You just gave me a great idea for a drinking game

 

[SeriousSam]

I very much doubt it would be revealed that Quintana is vulnerable if he really is, when there is a good chance his failure to attack yesterday could be mistaken for cautiousness by his rivals.

 

[Mr.White]

I don't really see anything happening before the last climb. Nobody needs a big chunk of time and with 2 more mountain stages to come nobody will want to take any big risks. That said, maybe someone who is a bit further down in the gc will try something.

2-3 minutes is a big chunk of time. Nibali should try something, and I think he will. Quintana should try something too, but he won't.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I don't understand why people always look at the gradients and then say is going to be boring or no action. In fact the hardest gradient mountains have provided no action many times. With small time gap differences. This one has the ingredients to be a good stage:

- High altitude
- Short stage
- Multi-climbs not so steep.

In fact the Passo Pinei looks perfect for Nibali to launch an attack. Short and steep descent after it.

The soft gradients usually have a inverse effect on the riders because they are not afraid of them, or afraid of bonking or losing too much time.

Some GC contenders will be less afraid of this stage than the queen stage and probably will attack before the last climb: Pinot, Nibali, Zakarin, Yates, Kruijswijk, hec even Quintana won't be afraid.

100% this. Another big factor is cumulative fatigue. Etna, Blockhaus and Stelvio are great climbs, but everyone was so fresh having had easy stages or rest days preceding, that there was relatively little action.

A stage like this, even with modest gradients, comes on the back of 440km and 9000m of climbing in the last two days. It should be a great watch; some riders are going to crack big time.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

I very much doubt it would be revealed that Quintana is vulnerable if he really is, when there is a good chance his failure to attack yesterday could be mistaken for cautiousness by his rivals.

Yeah. He's ok I think. Just little mind games from his team...

 

[Rollthedice]

I can't see other opportunity for Nibs and Nairo to try and get the 3 minutes needed on Dumoulin. Tom was very strong on Stelvio stage. Quintana's waiting game in the queen stage could've cost him the chance to win the Giro if not for poopgate. Maybe all the geniuses at Movistar can come up with a strategy today. Unfortunately Nibali does not have a proper team to turn the race on it's head and has to rely on Quintana who is waiting and waiting and waiting until it's too late. Major Tom is a force in this Giro, he will not crack, he needs to be ambushed.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I very much doubt it would be revealed that Quintana is vulnerable if he really is, when there is a good chance his failure to attack yesterday could be mistaken for cautiousness by his rivals.

There's a point at which Nibali will have to attack balls out. Nibali needs a bunch of time on Dumoulin, and he knows that if he just waits for the MTF's, he's toast anyway.

 

[Koba80]

It's a holiday in Austria tomorrow. Gigs is also in Austria.
You've got something better to do tomorrow, right Gigs?

 

[bassano]

Do you think that Nibali thinks he will get the 3 minutes with just on Pontives, Piancavallo and Grappa-Foza climbs?
He needs 2 minutes on Dumo before the final TT to be safe against him and Piancavallo stage doesn't suit Nibali. Actually Dumo can even gain time on Piancavallo.
I think Nibali will try something early if he manages to send 1-2 teammates into the breakaway.

I think everyone is underrating both stage 20 and how much expending energy fruitlessly can end up costing a GC contender. If Nibali/Quintana need minutes they'll look for them up Grappa.

Yeah, absolutelly agree

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I very much doubt it would be revealed that Quintana is vulnerable if he really is, when there is a good chance his failure to attack yesterday could be mistaken for cautiousness by his rivals.

Yeah, the chance to really attack him has probably passed now. But he did crash on sunday, and didn't look in amazing form yesterday so chances are he's going to be more vulnerable now than in the next few days.

Before the Stelvio stage they said he was 100%, now they say he is feeling the effects of the crash. It's probably reasonable to expect that the truth is the other way round. But Nibali still needs a bit of time so might as well go for it, because he'll probably lose a few seconds the day after on the MTF.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

It's a holiday in Austria tomorrow. Gigs is also in Austria.
You've got something better to do tomorrow, right Gigs?

Well actually I currently have a one month long "holiday" which is actually a one month long pause between my written and oral final school exams. Thats the main reason why so far I could watch almost every stage of this giro.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Can't wait for the commentators to go on and on about how this is a really explosive stage, a modern way of thinking cycling etc etc.

You just gave me a great idea for a drinking game

Could actually be fun. Like when Rolf Sorensen speaks about himself, just better.

 

[klintE]

Pino attack from 5km to finish line.
Landa in the break.

 

[Tank Engine]

There will be the usual large break of stage hunters and Movistar riders waiting for Quintana to jump across. He will do, but on the last climb when the breakaway riders are spent. Bahrain and Nibali will be the ones to light up the GC battle on the penultimate climb. Stoneface to catch the Shark on the steep section of the last climb and put 30-40secs into Tom D, only for Tom to turn on the afterburners on the false flat and hold on to the pink jersey (whether he leads by a few seconds or is overtaken by a few seconds is of no real relevance, since he will be treated as the leader, due to the final time trial).

Landa to win the stage and virtually guarantee the mountains jersey in the process.

It's a shame that Dan Martin was a non-starter today, tomorrow's stage would be ideal for him

 

[Dazed and Confused]

This will be good and not just because of the pink jersey taking a dump.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

This will be good and not just because of the pink jersey taking a dump.

It wasnt even good yesterday

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Re: Re:

This will be good and not just because of the pink jersey taking a dump.

It wasnt even good yesterday

It was ok considering the current status of GC racers.