Giro 2018 2nd Rest Day - Winner Poll

[Eshnar]

Here's the obligatory poll after the first block of the race. Who's gonna win it?

 

[DNP-Old]

I picked Chavito before the Giro, I'm picking Chavito right now.

 

[Climber123]

Dumoulin still the favourite by some distance.

Dumo
Pinot
Yates
Chaves
Superman

 

[Squire]

Pinot has this in his pocket

 

[Stella0596]

Still Dumoulin for me.

 

[Laplaz]

It is MS-duo vs. Pinot for me.

 

[fauniera]

Voted Chaves, with Pinot a close second. My pre race favorite Lopez doesn't appear to be in top shape, but who knows.

As long as the climbers defeat the time trialists, i will be happy with the outcome.

 

[Red Rick]

It depends on whether Yates fades or not.

 

[Koronin]

I'm sticking with Pinot. He hasn't done anything to show he can't win it.

 

[mosh1992]

Is also sticking with Pinot, was my pick before, still my pick now.

 

[Poursuivant]

Yates will smash everyone on the Zoncolan, it’s his race to lose.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Pinot has this in his pocket

Yep, still sticking with Tibo. His race is going exactly as I imagined it would: always among the very best

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I find Pinot an interesting pick. Arguably unproven would be a better status than someone who has tried and been found wanting so many times. Top 10 in his first GT, and has only managed to finish half the ones he's entered since, never better than 3rd when he did finish.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

It depends on whether Yates fades or not.

Agree. And if he does, they also have another okayish rider and a decent team as well.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Pinot is turning 28 at the end of May. We know most riders continue to develop until their peak which is usually somewhere between 28 and 32. I don't agree it's weird to think he could have found the extra 1% this winter that can land him a GT win against a less-than-stellar field.
I mean, who are the other candidates?
Froome: obviously doesn't have it
Dumoulin: still a big favorite but seems to lack something in the climbing department
Yates: looks in great form but most other contenders will be peaking later in the Giro
Chaves: looks good but has been absolutely terrible in the last 1.5 year, can he pull off 3 weeks without an off day.
Pozzovivo: climbing well for a possible podium but does anyone really see him win?

The reason I believed in Pinot before the Giro is because while he isn't really the best anywhere, he is always up there among the best of the GC contenders, in punchy finishes, long climbs, TTs, and he is always looking to gain a few seconds here and there. So far he has taken 14 seconds thanks to his great final sprint and there are many more opportunities to come. I am still a big believer.
I wonder, Waterloo Sunrise, who your pick for the win would be?

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Sticking with Pinot. TD needs to do something in the mountains to win this as I don't think he can rely on his TT to give him the necessary time needed to wheelsuck the rest of week 3. Hoping Yates and Chaves can stay up there to finish off the podium. My original picks of Poels and Aru gone the same way as Froome, but I have a feeling Froome may just rise from the ashes to gain a top 5 if he makes it to week 3. Not bad race so far, looking forward to the rest.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Dumoulin still the favourite by some distance.

Dumo
Pinot
Yates
Chaves
Superman

Lopez fifth? Interesting. He's looked terrible and he's already 2.34 back. Although I suppose he isn't a terrible time-triallist

 

[SlickMongoose]

Yates. He just looks so comfortable at the moment.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Re:

Pinot is turning 28 at the end of May. We know most riders continue to develop until their peak which is usually somewhere between 28 and 32. I don't agree it's weird to think he could have found the extra 1% this winter that can land him a GT win against a less-than-stellar field.
I mean, who are the other candidates?
Froome: obviously doesn't have it
Dumoulin: still a big favorite but seems to lack something in the climbing department
Yates: looks in great form but most other contenders will be peaking later in the Giro
Chaves: looks good but has been absolutely terrible in the last 1.5 year, can he pull off 3 weeks without an off day.
Pozzovivo: climbing well for a possible podium but does anyone really see him win?

The reason I believed in Pinot before the Giro is because while he isn't really the best anywhere, he is always up there among the best of the GC contenders, in punchy finishes, long climbs, TTs, and he is always looking to gain a few seconds here and there. So far he has taken 14 seconds thanks to his great final sprint and there are many more opportunities to come. I am still a big believer.
I wonder, Waterloo Sunrise, who your pick for the win would be?

It feels quite long odds for all 3 of the riders above Pinot to go wrong somehow. I can see an argument for Tom, although he looks awful and I don't expect him to win. Just struggling to see both Yates and Chaves fall away, and haven't seen anything from Pinot to place him above others to pick up the pieces even if that did all happen.

I've gone for Yates, as I don't see an elite level talent to really force a collapse out of him. He's looked great all year and is clearly in form, which does give questions for the 3rd week, but I just don't see anyone else to be afraid of.

 

[Gigs_98]

I voted Yates but it's really hard to say. If he doesn't fade he is almost certainly the winner, but the longer I think about it the more likely I think he will indeed fade. The reason I still voted for him is that in case of him fading, there are really a lot of riders with a chance to win.
Considering the ITT Dumoulin is still in a decent position. What makes me very interested as him as a gc contender for this giro is that he is probably fine as long as he only loses a few seconds every mtf (again, just in case Yates fades, otherwise I fear he doesn't have a chance anyway). Now some will say that as soon as the gc contenders realize just attacking on the final kilometer doesn't gain them enough time they will just start to attack from further out, but I'm not sure that's gonna be any more effective. DekkerTifosi has already pointed that out, he was never able to immediately respond to accelerations on big climbs, he has to pace himself up the ascent. Therefore he can't follow late accelerations like todays and loses time, but if Pozzovivo had split the group like that two kilometers earlier Dumoulin might have slowly but surely closed the gap and hadn't lost any time at all. That's basically how Dumoulin won the giro last year. So the other gc contenders might despair of him in the last week.
Pinot is my 2nd biggest favorite right now. I don't see him dropping all his rivals on mountain top finishes with 10 kilometers to go, but if Yates fades and if Dumoulin starts to lose more time than just a few seconds here and there, that might very well be enough to win a giro without a dominant climber. One problem he has is that I think his team isn't exactly great. That hasn't been a problem so far, but if he takes pink somewhere in the last week the last two mountain stages could be a nightmare
Pozzovivo is the contender I'm rooting for but I honestly don't see him winning the giro. I just think his ceiling isn't high enough. He is a little bit like Pinot in terms of just climbing with the best on every mountain stage but never gaining much time. His problem is that Pinot is just a little bit better at doing that since he has a way better punch for the finish line and can gain crucial seconds that way.
Then there is Chaves who is still a little bit of an unknown to me. The thing is, when has Chaves actually been so impressive on a climb that you would think he is a future gt winner. Yeah he is currently well positioned, has a strong team and more experienced as a gc contender than Yates, but think back to 2016 when he had his great season. He was good but not great for most of the giro (he didn't only crack on the last mountain stage, he also lost a lot of time to Nibali on Rissoul and got dropped on the penultimate climb on stage 17) and in the Vuelta there were hardly any gc contenders in the race, and the only serious gc rider he had to beat was a garbage Contador. Last year he faded massively after a great first week in the Vuelta, so I feel he is a little overrated as a climber. And let's not forget he will probably lose around three minutes to Dumoulin in the TT.

Because I'm not 100% convinced about anyone I still think someone who is already far down could upset everyone and make a big comeback. Not necessarily Froome, but Lopez might still ride himself into a great form and crush everyone in the alps, and I don't even 100% rule out Aru, as I think he planned to peak a lot later this year after his badly placed peak in last years tour. If he is suddenly at his best for the rest of the race on stage 14 everyone has to be afraid of him. That said, both options I just mentioned are very very unlikely.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Voted for Yates, unfortunately. There is no hope for my Dark Knight..

 

[Red Rick]

Dumoulin mentioned multiple times that he specifically didn't want to react to the attacks because of the altitude. Nobody really did any sustained effort today apart from Pozzovivo, and Yates ate by far the least wind in the final kms. He definitely looked less impressive in this weekend than on the Etna.

I'm still sceptic about Chaves cause he indeed never has seemed great enough uphill to make up for his terrible ITT.

Pinot might score a miracle win but I don't understand how he polls better than Yates.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Dumoulin mentioned multiple times that he specifically didn't want to react to the attacks because of the altitude. Nobody really did any sustained effort today apart from Pozzovivo, and Yates ate by far the least wind in the final kms. He definitely looked less impressive in this weekend than on the Etna.

I'm still sceptic about Chaves cause he indeed never has seemed great enough uphill to make up for his terrible ITT.

Pinot might score a miracle win but I don't understand how he polls better than Yates.

Because everyone seem to love Pinot for some reason. He would indeed have to pull a miracle win, but he is extremely consistent and can hunt for bonus. Would be a meh winner tho, but I feel like everything can happen. Haven't completely written Froome or MAL of either.

Yates definitely didn't look as good, but on the other hand, he was pretty amazing on Etna.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Re: Re:

Dumoulin mentioned multiple times that he specifically didn't want to react to the attacks because of the altitude. Nobody really did any sustained effort today apart from Pozzovivo, and Yates ate by far the least wind in the final kms. He definitely looked less impressive in this weekend than on the Etna.

I'm still sceptic about Chaves cause he indeed never has seemed great enough uphill to make up for his terrible ITT.

Pinot might score a miracle win but I don't understand how he polls better than Yates.

Because everyone seem to love Pinot for some reason. He would indeed have to pull a miracle win, but he is extremely consistent and can hunt for bonus. Would be a meh winner tho, but I feel like everything can happen. Haven't completely written Froome or MAL of either.

Yates definitely didn't look as good, but on the other hand, he was pretty amazing on Etna.

Pinot is the man in the middle of the spectrum between the punchy and the diesel. Won't lose as much time as Yates (and Pozzo, Lopez, Chavez...) in the TT, and won't lose as much time on the big mountains as Domoulin.

People are also skeptical of Yates's ability in the third week.

In that sense, there is some safety and reliability in picking Pinot.

 

[Poursuivant]

MS have an amazing team here too, Haig, Nieve, Kreuziger and to an extent Chaves to help Yates in the mountains, that is not bad at all.