Giro 2018 2nd Rest Day - Winner Poll

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Dumoulin mentioned multiple times that he specifically didn't want to react to the attacks because of the altitude. Nobody really did any sustained effort today apart from Pozzovivo, and Yates ate by far the least wind in the final kms. He definitely looked less impressive in this weekend than on the Etna.

I'm still sceptic about Chaves cause he indeed never has seemed great enough uphill to make up for his terrible ITT.

Pinot might score a miracle win but I don't understand how he polls better than Yates.

Because everyone seem to love Pinot for some reason. He would indeed have to pull a miracle win, but he is extremely consistent and can hunt for bonus. Would be a meh winner tho, but I feel like everything can happen. Haven't completely written Froome or MAL of either.

Yates definitely didn't look as good, but on the other hand, he was pretty amazing on Etna.

Pino is consistent until he's not. MS, Yates and Chaves have all the cards to play, if they play it well like a team and can keep a similar form till the end, Yates wins. Pozzo will make a solid top 5 as usual, he needs to invent something to get higher but I don't see him as an adventurer. Tom can win if he doesn't loose his cool when he'll be attacked left and right, he is though the only one who actually won the damn thing once. Froome is done.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

[quote="Valv.Piti[/url Because everyone seem to love Pinot for some reason. He would indeed have to pull a miracle win, but he is extremely consistent and can hunt for bonus. Would be a meh winner tho, but I feel like everything can happen. Haven't completely written Froome or MAL of either.

Yates definitely didn't look as good, but on the other hand, he was pretty amazing on Etna.[/quote]
A meh winner? I challenge you to a duel Valv.Piti ...

LaFlo can tell a Champion when she sees one, unlike many here. Tibipino is Il Grandissimo. He shall crush the field and show no mercy. Bow before his greatness, or be destroyed!

Nice to see that he's getting a little love, it hasn't always been the case...

Dumoulin still is the man to beat.

 

[Robert5091]

Sticking with Dumoulin

 

[Laplaz]

I'm not sure Pinot will do better in the ITT than Yates...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Last year at this point Dumoulin was 30s back from Quintana after 1 (i cannot count Etna) serious mt stage. In 3rd place.
Now he is 3rd at 38 from Yates after 2 serious mountain stages. I think he's still man to beat, BUT, Yates looks better than Quintana last year, AND, there's Zoncolan, which I'm not too sure if Dumoulin can limit the damage there.

edit: I would like to add that I can see Yates fading in week 3, but being replaced by Pinot.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Yates, because he looks like the best climber at the moment. However he needs to take more time on the Zoncolan, not just another 10 seconds. There's a danger that he might fade in the third week. Keeping two irons in the fire is good for M-S. It would be great if Yates and Chaves attacked together on the Finestre. Pinot looks like a certainty for the top 4, but he will need to attack hard in the mountains if he wants to win.

 

[SafeBet]

Pinot.
He was consistent last year even in less than ideal conditions. So I'm betting on him being as consistent as last year but a little better (cool weather will help him).

Dumoulin is in a very similar position to last year, but with almost 40 less TT km to gain time on his rivals. Very likely to be on the podium, but needs to improve a little to win it.

Yates looks great atm but I'm not sure he can keep it up for two more weeks. Same goes for Chaves. If they don't fade it's probably a 1-2, considering how strong tgeir team is.

I actually believe Lopez still has a chance to win the Giro if he hits peak shape at the right time. Current time gaps are nothing. I keep reading posts about riders being out of contention because they're two minutes behind. With two weeks to come and every relevant stage still to be raced. You guys can't be serious. This is the Giro.

 

[Escarabajo]

Voted Chaves, with Pinot a close second. My pre race favorite Lopez doesn't appear to be in top shape, but who knows.

As long as the climbers defeat the time trialists, i will be happy with the outcome.

I can be happy with this as well!

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Last year at this point Dumoulin was 30s back from Quintana after 1 (i cannot count Etna) serious mt stage. In 3rd place.
Now he is 3rd at 38 from Yates after 2 serious mountain stages. I think he's still man to beat, BUT, Yates looks better than Quintana last year, AND, there's Zoncolan, which I'm not too sure if Dumoulin can limit the damage there.

edit: I would like to add that I can see Yates fading in week 3, but being replaced by Pinot.

Don't forget there is one less TT!
I think that's the big difference.

 

[The Barb]

Dumoulin must still be the clear favourite. He’s ridden a very smart race to this point.

Unlike most, it seems, I think the best chance for his opponents is not Zoncolan but the day after, Stage 15, where there is a possibility of Yates, Chaves and a couple of others isolating and distancing Dumoulin with 40-50km to go. To me that is the best chance they have of getting the advantage they will need for the time trial. While Dumoulin will likely lose time on Zoncolan, he can grind his way up and won’t lose a huge chunk.

 

[Robert5091]

Thursday's & Friday's stages have a grand total of 0 mountain points = pancake flat, so apart from mechanicals or poopy stops they'll be not a lot of GC movement before Saturday. Tuesday's stage 11 could produce some small gaps.

 

[Jspear]

Originally I picked Pinot, but I wasn’t expecting this type of performance by Yates. Yates seems really confident and White is a good leader. I think they have a decent shot at pulling the win off. I’d be happy with that. If they do crack a little, I give it to Pinot.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Last year at this point Dumoulin was 30s back from Quintana after 1 (i cannot count Etna) serious mt stage. In 3rd place.
Now he is 3rd at 38 from Yates after 2 serious mountain stages. I think he's still man to beat, BUT, Yates looks better than Quintana last year, AND, there's Zoncolan, which I'm not too sure if Dumoulin can limit the damage there.

edit: I would like to add that I can see Yates fading in week 3, but being replaced by Pinot.

Don't forget there is one less TT!
I think that's the big difference.

Not having toilet gate also means a 2 min difference, but on the other side. So I'm not so sure that's the big difference

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Pinot.
He was consistent last year even in less than ideal conditions. So I'm betting on him being as consistent as last year but a little better (cool weather will help him).

Dumoulin is in a very similar position to last year, but with almost 40 less TT km to gain time on his rivals. Very likely to be on the podium, but needs to improve a little to win it.

Yates looks great atm but I'm not sure he can keep it up for two more weeks. Same goes for Chaves. If they don't fade it's probably a 1-2, considering how strong tgeir team is.

I actually believe Lopez still has a chance to win the Giro if he hits peak shape at the right time. Current time gaps are nothing. I keep reading posts about riders being out of contention because they're two minutes behind. With two weeks to come and every relevant stage still to be raced. You guys can't be serious. This is the Giro.

Great post, I agree with all of this. One thing with Pinot I think is that he needs to try to go from far on one of the mountain stages to try to gain really big time, and I'm not sure he will. In the last couple of years he seems more to rely on his sprint and fast finish to gain a few seconds here or there. I think he will have to take risks, which could backfire, in order to win. But he definitely has the potential to do it imo. At least I hope so.

 

[del1962]

We have yet to see Pinot tested downhill

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

We have yet to see Pinot tested downhill

There aren't many stages to test downhill skills in this Giro.
Which is another reason why I believe Pinot is more likely to win than last year.

 

[Netserk]

I think Pinot will tank the TT. Maybe even as badly as Chaves. It is after a restday

So far, it's still Tom for me, although Chaves is looking really good too - I am still skeptical of how well Yates will do in the third week.

 

[Escarabajo]

@Gigs_98, I know that Dumoulin do not follow quick accelerations and he usually reels them back. But that is not always truth. That's how he lost the Vuelta 2016 when the elastic broke and he no longer could reel them back. Last year he found a subpar Quintana and Subpar Nibali. Otherwise I believe that they would have broken the elastic at would have taken more time on him. Additionally he had an extra TT to rely on. It would be more difficult this time around unless he improves in the mountains.

My 2 cents.

 

[SafeBet]

Is this "subpar Quintana and subpar Nibali" narrative a real thing though? Is it backed by numbers?
Just asking.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Is this "subpar Quintana and subpar Nibali" narrative a real thing though? Is it backed by numbers?
Just asking.

Pretty sure Blockhaus was one best perfromances of the year on a 40 minute climb. Oropa climbing time was insane. Umbrail and Pontives don't really have much reference cause the stages were that hard. Piancavallo wasn't super fast.

 

[Flat Out]

Is this "subpar Quintana and subpar Nibali" narrative a real thing though? Is it backed by numbers?
Just asking.

Nibali said at the Vuelta he put his highest numbers ( and could not drop a single Sky domestique) while at Giro he was not at 100%, can't say anything about Quintana.

 

[Red Rick]

Is this "subpar Quintana and subpar Nibali" narrative a real thing though? Is it backed by numbers?
Just asking.

Nibali said at the Vuelta he put his highest numbers ( and could not drop a single Sky domestique) while at Giro he was not at 100%, can't say anything about Quintana.

I don't know the exact quote, but it's not that weird cause domestiques work a shorter amount of time, and the Vuelta does have the shortest climbs typically. IIRC a lot of the big MTFs also had headwind. Calar Alto being the most prominent one.

Nibali's inconsistency and tactics in the first 2 weeks of the Giro were his biggest problem. Blew himself up trying to follow Quintana and Dumoulin on Blockhaus and Oropa respectively. After that he was caught between a rock and a hard place cause he had to drop Dumoulin but couldn't really expect to take back Quintana in the ITT.

And many say that Dumoulin was let off the hook in that Giro, but I only feel that's the case for the last mountain stage. He was cracking under the pressure of Katusha on the Monte Grappa, and if they'd pushed there and had domestiques from the break Dumoulin doesn't top 5 that Giro.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Is this "subpar Quintana and subpar Nibali" narrative a real thing though? Is it backed by numbers?
Just asking.

Quintana was visibly subpar the last week. I haven't had the time to put the numbers and didn't even bother after looking at his performances.

He called off the big attack on stage 16. You could see Anacona going back and forth calling the car to find out what was going on. He tried several times to make a separation and couldn't make a difference on Stage 18. He wasn't good enough. Towards the ending of stages 19 and 20 he was below the performance of the other climbers. He couldn't make a separation either. At some points he was being dropped by the others. TBH, I wasn't sure what was wrong with Quintana during that week. I wasn't only comparing him against Dumo but the others that were in the race.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Is this "subpar Quintana and subpar Nibali" narrative a real thing though? Is it backed by numbers?
Just asking.

Quintana was visibly subpar the last week. I haven't had the time to put the numbers and didn't even bother after looking at his performances.

He tried several times to make a separation and couldn't make a difference. Towards the ending of stages 19 and 20 he was below the performance of the other climbers. He couldn't make a separation. At some points he was being dropped by the others. TBH, I wasn't sure what was wrong with Quintana during that week.

I wasn't only comparing him against Dumo but the others that were in the race.

Nibali and Quintana were definitely weakening at the end. The stage to Bormio they were still quite strong and the Dolimiti stage is hard to estimate cause they spent the most energy attacking on Passo Gardena. It was bad luck that the domestiques weren't strong enough to get their ass over the climb before Dumoulin had brought them back.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Is this "subpar Quintana and subpar Nibali" narrative a real thing though? Is it backed by numbers?
Just asking.

Quintana was visibly subpar the last week. I haven't had the time to put the numbers and didn't even bother after looking at his performances.

He called off the big attack on stage 16. You could see Anacona going back and forth calling the car to find out what was going on. He tried several times to make a separation and couldn't make a difference on Stage 18. He wasn't good enough. Towards the ending of stages 19 and 20 he was below the performance of the other climbers. He couldn't make a separation either. At some points he was being dropped by the others. TBH, I wasn't sure what was wrong with Quintana during that week. I wasn't only comparing him against Dumo but the others that were in the race.

I really think Quintana calling off the big stage 16 attack rather had something to do with not being gutsy enough than being weakened. If you can follow Nibali's attack on the Umbrailpass I doubt you can't even attack on the climb before. If that attack would have worked is a different question but I still think Quintana threw away the giro there.