Giro d'Italia Giro d’Italia 2024, Stage 7: Foligno – Perugia, 40.6k (ITT)

[Unchained]

Don't want to use up my daily allocation of Luke Plapp compliments, but he really hard a solid ride. He just looks like he is riding good, don't want to be too positive and make anyone angry!!
Pogacar has a bizarre high pain threshold!! Guy can really really suffer, impressive!!

 

[kingjr]

Like this post if you want me as a mod . I am a fair and objective guy. Perhaps if we get 2 or 3 likes the mod team will consider me

I honestly think it's not a bad idea

 

[postmanhat]

Too soon to panic like that. They need to see if they can move up on GC by attrition first, I think.

Yes, hopefully tomorrow will be for the Italian breakaway riders. The stage is tough enough to expose any rival's weaknesses.

 

[Didinho]

Last 6,6km Pogi and Ganna averaged both 430W. (Velon)

 

[Froome]

Last 6,6km Pogi and Ganna averaged both 430W. (Velon)

What is the weight of them?

 

[zlev11]

Thomas says that the wind wasn't a big deal. He tried to negative split but didn't have it

well he got the negative right

 

[Red Rick]

Top-15 in GC by GC order	Time to T1	Time from T1 to T2	Time from T2 to Finish	Total time
Pogi	21'59"	17'31"	12'14"	51'44"
Martinez	+40"	+37"	+32"	+149"
Thomas	+08"	+32"	+1'20"	+2'00"
O'Connor	+42"	+50"	+35"	+2'07"
Plapp	+05"	+28"	+1'12"	+1'45"
Lutsenko	+41"	+45"	+57"	+2'23"
Uijtdebroeks	+57"	+59"	+59"	+2'55"
Tiberi	+23"	+18"	+40"	+1'21"
Zana	+39"	+43"	+1'12"	+2'34"
Fortunato	+1'12"	+1'21"	+1'04"	+3'37"
Arensman	-12"	+12"	+1'00"	+1'00"
Rubio	+1'11"	+1'25"	+1'44"	+4'20"
Hirt	+1'34"	+1'21"	+1'14"	+4'09"
Bardet	+102"	+1'00"	+48"	+2'50"
Juampe	+1'09"	+1'22"	+1'46"	+4'17"

I'm actually wondering if it's not Pogacar who paced it too negatively.

 

[Red Rick]

Last 6,6km Pogi and Ganna averaged both 430W. (Velon)

Thats really low for Ganna I think. For Pogacar that's probably like 6.7-6.8 which sounds like a normal number for him.

Edit - actually it doesn't make any sense to me that Ganna would lose only like 9% of time when being >>20% heavier doing the same watts

 

[Red Rick]

Here's the final section of the Mirador de Ezaro TT. The final split wasn't right at the bottom of the climb though so this includes about 7km of flat roads.

#	RIDER	TIME	BEHIND	AVG. SPEED
1	ROGLIČ Primož	16.05,28	16:05	34.311
2	MARTIN Dan	16.21,80	0:17	33.734
3	BARTA Will	16.22,77	0:18	33.701
4	CARTHY Hugh	16.29,11	0:24	33.485
5	CATTANEO Mattia	16.30,56	0:26	33.436
6	POELS Wout	16.31,30	,,	33.411
7	OLIVEIRA Nelson	16.31,47	,,	33.405
8	SOLER Marc	16.32,60	0:28	33.367
9	CHAMPOUSSIN Clément	16.38,78	0:34	33.160
10	ARMIRAIL Bruno	16.41,60	0:37	33.067

For Bergen I can only find the splits in the final result sheet. If I'm reading it correctly the top 5 seem to be:
1. Roglic
2. Dumoulin +5
3. Dennis +11
4. Tratnik + 24
5. Roche +27
...
9. Froome +30

I totally forgot they didn't have a time check right before the Muro. I seem to remember Rog being 25s down before it.

 

[Oldermanish]

Well it was moto like I was guessing. Still not as moto as Vingo at the Tour. Martinez great performance, he's got a good grip to the podium if all goes steady.

Moto like?
Putting a minute into Ganna on 5km of climbing at the end isn't unexpected nor "unreal". He did that ratio of gain in 2km of climbing at the end of the stage he won in this Giro already. And G Thomas was trying very hard to stay in the picture.

 

[Froome]

Thats really low for Ganna I think. For Pogacar that's probably like 6.7-6.8 which sounds like a normal number for him.

Edit - actually it doesn't make any sense to me that Ganna would lose only like 9% of time when being >>20% heavier doing the same watts

If he weighs 66 kg (PCS), he did 6.5 w/kg, but probably he weighs a bit less, probably did 6.6 w/kg.

The perfomances on this climb and oropa are similar with heat he did on marie blanque and the last climb of coumbloux, last year.

 

[shadowrider]

Pogacar doesn't love the TT bike on moderate climbing sections. I'm not entirely convinced Ganna explodes on the 3% sections. Plus the UAE TT bike is quite heavy.

So, as I predicted. Gana clearly faded at the end of the steep 1.4 km. Maybe only losing 15 to 20 seconds on that section. But not able to restore and push the high rear the last 4 km of the 3-4 % slope, as Pogacar could and did. Losing another 40 to 50 seconds. Only by analysing the past, the capacities of Ganna and Pogacar. Strange that so many followers got it wrong here.

 

[movingtarget]

Don't want to use up my daily allocation of Luke Plapp compliments, but he really hard a solid ride. He just looks like he is riding good, don't want to be too positive and make anyone angry!!
Pogacar has a bizarre high pain threshold!! Guy can really really suffer, impressive!!

Early days for Plapp. He's basically just learning to ride grand tours but the future looks bright.

 

[shadowrider]

It is incomprehensible that so few thought this possible. Myself and a few others predicted Pogacar would destroy Ganna in the end of the TT. Not only in the short 1.4 km steep slope, but even more in the last 4 km at 2-4 %. Because Ganna would give all in the first 30 km (Poga still keeping some reserves). Because Ganna would explode at the end of the 1.4 steep slope (he did the last 200 m). Because Ganna wouldn't be able to crank up the engine again for the difficult last 4 km. That's exactly what happened.
Of course, I'm not Madame Soleil. Whether Poga could take 40, 50 or more than 60 seconds back was not clear, I couldn't predict that. But when I realised that Ganna started way to fast, taking more than 40 seconds on Pogacar, it was clear Poga could take a minute back during the climb. If Ganna had dosed more, he would have lost less time on the final climb. Poga would still have won, but maybe with 3 or 4 seconds.

 

[Cookster15]

Wow, not often I am right but this time I was ...

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Gonna put my neck out and predict it will be a Pog demolition. Small clue was how Pogacar restrained himself on stage 6. I get the feeling he is in top shape.

Obviously we will know by this time tomorrow but I can’t see Lutsenko holding a candle to Pog on the climb and then hold that level to the finish line. That’s a VO2 max test.

This is exactly what eventuated. The GC gaps are enormous. Good rides by Arensman, Plapp and O'Conner. I hope it was just a bad day by Thomas and not a sign of age.

But very funny going back to read the early predictions here and how wrong you all were

Now interested to see if Pogacar can effectively put away the Giro tomorrow.

 

[Froome]

It is incomprehensible that so few thought this possible. Myself and a few others predicted Pogacar would destroy Ganna in the end of the TT. Not only in the short 1.4 km steep slope, but even more in the last 4 km at 2-4 %. Because Ganna would give all in the first 30 km (Poga still keeping some reserves). Because Ganna would explode at the end of the 1.4 steep slope (he did the last 200 m). Because Ganna wouldn't be able to crank up the engine again for the difficult last 4 km. That's exactly what happened.
Of course, I'm not Madame Soleil. Whether Poga could take 40, 50 or more than 60 seconds back was not clear, I couldn't predict that. But when I realised that Ganna started way to fast, taking more than 40 seconds on Pogacar, it was clear Poga could take a minute back during the climb. If Ganna had dosed more, he would have lost less time on the final climb. Poga would still have won, but maybe with 3 or 4 seconds.

I have to admit, looking at the profile of the ITT before the stage, i didn't expected the last climb was so hard.

 

[Didinho]

I have to admit, looking at the profile of the ITT before the stage, i didn't expected the last climb was so hard.

The first 1,3km was 11,8%. That’s like Roche aux Faucons from LBL but even a bit harder. Really tough. With 3-4km climbing immediately after. Ganna with 15kg extra. Thought he paced the climb really well but had a bad moment and lost even more after the steep part.

 

[Froome]

The first 1,3km was 11,8%. That’s like Roche aux Faucons from LBL but even a bit harder. Really tough. With 3-4km climbing immediately after. Ganna with 15kg extra. Thought he paced the climb really well but had a bad moment and lost even more after the steep part.

Even the last km and half was really hard, with some really steep ramps. I thought the last kilometres were basically flat.

 

[Pantani_lives]

And for the third day in a row I feel sorry for the second. Why didn't the Italian organizers keep the time trial flat?

I didn't expect Pogacar to take back that much, but he kept a really high rhythm on a smaller gear than his opponents. The biggest surprise to me was Daniel Martinez, who for once comes through the first week of a GT without crashes.

And of course those doom predictions about Uijtdebroeks were wrong. His headwear reminded me of a pith helmet.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Cograts to Teddy! Negative split strategy at its finest, has there ever been a better example? 44 sec to Ganna after the first section and 10th overall. Poor! Strong 2nd section and only 3 further seconds lost to Ganna, jumped to 3rd. Getting stronger, can he overcome the deficit in the last climbing section? Then, boom. Watt bomb in the last climb, smashing Ganna and the rest. GC gaps are big already, Thomas weaker than expected esp. on the climb. The race is almost sealed barring some crash or other disaster by Teddy. Tomorrow he will want to win Prati di Tivo and make the gap even bigger basically killing the race. Afterwards I am expecting a more conservative ride by the leader.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If he weighs 66 kg (PCS), he did 6.5 w/kg, but probably he weighs a bit less, probably did 6.6 w/kg.

The perfomances on this climb and oropa are similar with heat he did on marie blanque and the last climb of coumbloux, last year.

I find it hard to compare a climb at the end of 52 minute effort vs overall much shorted efforts. Such comparisons make no sense.

 

[Cookster15]

Afterwards I am expecting a more conservative ride by the leader.

Yes, Giro Tour double strategy. Great ride today, who will bet against Pog killing the Giro tomorrow?

 

[Lequack]

This pic just never gets old, Ganna and Plapp watching Pog like

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I'm actually wondering if it's not Pogacar who paced it too negatively.

Its better to ride flat part of the TT at lower wattage and uphill part at higher vs even power output for the whole TT. Its because one can gain relatively more time uphill (almost linear speed and power relation on steep sections) than on flat (speed is closer to square or even cube root of power).

But yeah, the question is if he shouldnt have ridden both flat parts more evenly.

 

[armchairclimber]

Impressive today. A few riders shone. But this is the Giro... anything can happen. And usually does.
I'm not crowning Pog (brill though that was)
I'm not writing off Thomas (bobbins though that was)

Still a long way to go. Mechanicals, tumbles, bad decisions, lucky breaks .... they can all still happen.
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