Giro d' Italia 2009 - Part 1 by Dr. Michele Ferrari

[BigBoat]

Giro d' Italia 2009 - Part 1
By: Michele Ferrari
Published: 18 May 2009

1717 m/h was the VAM of the group of best riders led by Ivan Basso in the last 10 km of Alpe di Siusi (8.3% average gradient at an altitude of 1014 up to 1844m), a performance which is equal to 6.13 watt/kg.

A performance, that of Ivan, not so distant from his best ones in 2006: 6.27 w/kg on the Colle di S. Carlo (9.8% average gradient at an altitude between 1000 and 1900m), 6.39 w/kg on the Bondone (7.9% gradient, altitude between 278 and 1650m).

In the stage with the finish in Bergamo, on the Colle del Gallo (6.2 km at 7%, with an altitude between 328 and 763m) we have seen a small group formed by excellent riders such as Garzelli, Cunego, Pellizotti, Horner, Rogers, Leipheimer attack and literally devour the 435m of climbing in 14'11", with a resulting VAM = 1838 m/h, corresponding on such a gradient to an excellent 6.8 w/kg.

The group with the pink jersey Di Luca, Basso, Sastre, Menchov and a progressing Armstrong, got over the climb with a delay of 1', but still with the impressive VAM = 1720 m/h, equal to 6.35w/kg.



http://www.53x12.com/do/show?page=indepth.view&id=101


Oh and cheers bros

 

[karlboss]

minor point...

minor point for Dr. ferrari...which way was the wind blowing? I would think he is more intelligent than to ignore such small factors and try to relate VAM to watts per kg so directly, though they are closely related and more so when climbs are steeper.

 

[mherm79]

karlboss - the figures by Michele are indicators of the nett effort required - regarless whether some of the effort is wind assisted, or inhibited.

you can also question a single w/kg figure is given for a group of riders - are they all the same weight? No - but it's indicative as a comparision.

The most interesting part of his article is the claim Garzelli, Cunego, Pellizotti, Horner, Rogers, Leipheimer all posted figures > 6.7w/kg - his magical power figure required to win the TdF...even if it was only for 14min...are these guys peaking too early?

 

[Returnofthewolf]

karlboss - the figures by Michele are indicators of the nett effort required - regarless whether some of the effort is wind assisted, or inhibited.

you can also question a single w/kg figure is given for a group of riders - are they all the same weight? No - but it's indicative as a comparision.

The most interesting part of his article is the claim Garzelli, Cunego, Pellizotti, Horner, Rogers, Leipheimer all posted figures > 6.7w/kg - his magical power figure required to win the TdF...even if it was only for 14min...are these guys peaking too early?

Based on the way he is arriving at these numbers (gradient of climb/time/ weight of riders) - wind direction and road surface for example would change the required power output for a given speed.

With the figures for the colle del gallo it seems he has not factored in the effect of the draft going 16 mph. That "6.8" was probably closer to 6.15-6.2 for the average among the lead group. I think Ferrari fukt up on this calculation. Or more likely since he is meticulous and evil, he said this with some nefarious ulterior motive...muaahahhaha

 

[karlboss]

Vam

Allow me to clarify,
VAM=vertical meters/recorded time in seconds * 3600 and yields units of meters per hour
So wind does play a significant part. Imagine climbing a ramp of 5% with a 40kph tail wind or 40 kph head wind. Same climb vastly different VAMs. There is then a calculation directly correlating to give watts/kg for a rider, it is independent of a riders weight and becomes more accurate in less wind, and the steeper the climb as speed decreases and wind resistance plays a smaller roll along with rolling resistance and drivetrain friction etc. But I hope you can now see it isn't accurate. If all riders go up a hill at the same speed by themselves this assumes the same watts per kg. So everyone in a group apart from the front rider can be assumed to have the same sustainable watts/kg.
The assertion of a watts/kg greater than 6.7, once again which way was the wind blowing? that standard is held for a rider soloing for efforts of 30 mins, not a group working together for 14.
Whether ferrari's assertion everyone is still doping is true or not, science this bad isn't even close to proof.

 

[Leopejo]

The most interesting part of his article is the claim Garzelli, Cunego, Pellizotti, Horner, Rogers, Leipheimer all posted figures > 6.7w/kg - his magical power figure required to win the TdF...even if it was only for 14min...are these guys peaking too early?

Keep in mind that:
a) they had fresh legs (stage 5)
b) that was a short stage for their standards

I don't know how much that means in terms of wattage (a few tens of W/kg I'd assume), but Ivan Basso for example stressed that he couldn't make a difference because of the short stage.

 

[Leopejo]

VAM is quite a good indicator of performance - much more "reliable" than the average speed of a time trial, especially if climb profile (average slope and slope variability) is taken into account. Surely wind affects VAM, but how often do you get 40 km/h winds on a climb? If you do, you can always try to account for it.

To split hairs, in identical conditions W/kg is not exactly equal for riders of different weight (aerodynamic drag and proportional bicycle weight). But I am only complaining because I am smaller than my competitors and my bicycle is a couple of kg more than theirs.

I wouldn't dismiss Dr. Ferrari's science. And I don't think he was saying "see, they are doping". On the other hand, I have seen some strange claims by him in the past.

 

[karlboss]

no, 40kph winds are not common, I merely used that to make the difference obvious, any wind makes a difference. 5kph swing from face to tail would make up for this small change.

What do you think Dr Ferrari is saying? Maybe he's pointing out doping is not effective? It's either that or Basso is doping again. I'll let you decide

 

[Leopejo]

What do you think Dr Ferrari is saying? Maybe he's pointing out doping is not effective? It's either that or Basso is doping again. I'll let you decide

No, he is only reporting on the cyclists' performance, without any hidden agenda.

He has done that for most Giros and Tours. He, like us, is interested in athletes' performances, and is kind enough to take timings and make a few calculations for us. Sometimes he adds some comments, like "they went slow, you see they are getting tired" or such. But really, I don't think that doping has anything to do with his VAM reports.

 

[BigBoat]

The estimated watts per kilo could actually be less than they really are due to a headwind or, curvy switchbacks. Also, was the road surface excellent or fair to partly cloudy?

Also, Basso pulled the group up most of these climbs. Clearly there was a headwind or neutral winds because after all, the groups drafted off one another and stayed together. I have done many a races where a tailwind on the climb broke the pack up. Not only that but > wind tends to blow in a constant direction, a curvy mountain climb will not always face the wind or run with the wind.

Cheers.

 

[Bala Verde]

I found his article analysing the the blood passport much more interesting...

and if you'd like o calculate your own VAM so that you can compare it to a pro's

http://www.ciclomaniac.com/vam.asp

fill out start altitude
fill out end altidue
fill out time in format hh.mm.ss

I bet it's metric

 

[Anonymous]

interesting that Di Luca, Basso, Sastre, Menchov and Armstrong are showing similar performance to that of basso in 2006.... :?

now im really confused..

 

[Returnofthewolf]

interesting that Di Luca, Basso, Sastre, Menchov and Armstrong are showing similar performance to that of basso in 2006.... :?

now im really confused..

Dimspace,

They are not putting out those kind of numbers. I dont know if Ferrari is drunk or has some agenda, but what he is saying does NOT add up.

For Alpe di Siusi I calculate approx 6.0W/kg for someone if they TT'd it solo at that grade and rate of ascent - let alone in a small group. The average among that front group was likely approx. 5.7 W/kg, a bit more (5.8) for the ones doing more of the work.

For Colle del Gallo "6.8" W/kg is what you would need to make that climb in 14:11 if you were SOLO, not in a small group - big difference when averaging 16 mph. Same goes for the Armstrong group quoted at 6.35 W/kg, likely closer to 5.9 for that 15 minutes.

I know this sounds INSANE, but the best I can tell, everything has been within in the realm of human capability (without blood manipulation). There are a couple guys I "suspect" though, but I'll keep that to myself.

 

[stephens]

There are a couple guys I "suspect" though, but I'll keep that to myself.

Good strategy. Now you have a 100% chance of getting to say, "Just as I thought," when the next failed test surfaces. Well played.

 

[BigBoat]

We'll see what Dr. Ferrari says about the TT and Giro part II. Sounds like legitimate doping evidence to me lol. You have to be super jacked to sustain even 6 watts per kilo after a 5 hour stage.

If I remember correctly clean 1-hour sustained wattage is about 5.7-5.8. For the very best rider that is...

 

[Returnofthewolf]

Now you have a 100% chance of getting to say, "Just as I thought,"

"getting to say"
haahaha oh YAAAAY for me, oh you got me sherlock! Um no turdferbrains, Im not certain, so why would i make accusations? Even if i had 99.9999% confidence I still wouldnt say anything. If my hunch was right, still wouldnt say anything. In hindsight, I shouldnt even have mentioned it.

 

[karlboss]

Dimspace,

They are not putting out those kind of numbers. I dont know if Ferrari is drunk or has some agenda, but what he is saying does NOT add up.

For Alpe di Siusi I calculate approx 6.0W/kg for someone if they TT'd it solo at that grade and rate of ascent - let alone in a small group. The average among that front group was likely approx. 5.7 W/kg, a bit more (5.8) for the ones doing more of the work.

For Colle del Gallo "6.8" W/kg is what you would need to make that climb in 14:11 if you were SOLO, not in a small group - big difference when averaging 16 mph. Same goes for the Armstrong group quoted at 6.35 W/kg, likely closer to 5.9 for that 15 minutes.

I know this sounds INSANE, but the best I can tell, everything has been within in the realm of human capability (without blood manipulation). There are a couple guys I "suspect" though, but I'll keep that to myself.

What numbers are you using and formula to go from VAM to watts/kg?

 

[Returnofthewolf]

What numbers are you using and formula to go from VAM to watts/kg?

Ive plugged the vam/time/distance that Ferrari gives into analyticcycling.com, and used 68kg rider weight and 8kg equipment weight. A heavier rider will require slightly less W/kg and a lighter rider slighty more to go the same speed(but close enough for these purposes). Ive cross checked their calculator with a powertap numerous times and it seems to be pretty much dead on. The final "W/kg" is ex-equipment weight. An SRM probably adds about 10 watts, I factored this in and rounded the numbers up 0.1 W/kg.

The point is the numbers he gives dont jibe with the W/kg he gives. If the VAM and times he has given are correct, then I feel the W/kg numbers Ive stated are alot more accurate. You cant just completely discount the draft when going those speeds even in a small group. Ferrari himself says approx 40 watts saved when sitting second wheel @ 15 mph. Nobody has had a performance like Basso-2006 the best i can tell.

going to bed, cheers.

 

[stephens]

If my hunch was right, still wouldnt say anything. In hindsight, I shouldnt even have mentioned it.

Precisely my point. Now pass it along to mr.boat.

 

[Leopejo]

Also, Basso pulled the group up most of these climbs. Clearly there was a headwind or neutral winds because after all, the groups drafted off one another and stayed together.

Probably neutral, but basing pro tactics on your races...

 

[Leopejo]

I found his article analysing the the blood passport much more interesting...

and if you'd like o calculate your own VAM so that you can compare it to a pro's

http://www.ciclomaniac.com/vam.asp

fill out start altitude
fill out end altidue
fill out time in format hh.mm.ss

I bet it's metric

You don't need such a website. Just elevation gain (meters) divided by time in hours, or times sixty divided by time in minutes, or times 3600 divided by time in seconds. No rocket science here.

At least in Italy, VAM is used by almost every Sunday cyclist. You seldom hear anyone bragging about "my speed on the flats is 42 km/h", but "I kept a 1200 VAM" is everyday language. As long as a climb is steep enough (more than 5-6 % for not-so-fast cyclists) and long enough (15-20+ minutes), VAM tends to be quite consistent (yes, I know everything about power-vs-time, drafting, etc.).

 

[Leopejo]

If I remember correctly clean 1-hour sustained wattage is about 5.7-5.8. For the very best rider that is...

 

[ElChingon]

and if you'd like o calculate your own VAM so that you can compare it to a pro's

http://www.ciclomaniac.com/vam.asp

So where is the Pro Riders listed VAM's to see who I can drop

 

[messisgod]

interesting that Di Luca, Basso, Sastre, Menchov and Armstrong are showing similar performance to that of basso in 2006.... :?

now im really confused..

Yeah, let me get this straight...

Several riders, in the new "cleaner" era of cycling, are putting out the same power as doped to the gills Basso when he didn't even have to push himself to a dominating Giro win in 2006?

The French cycling magazine that has been estimating rider's power based on climb times for several years has estimated Basso is missing 35 watts from 2006, but from the numbers they show I'm not sure how they arrived at that. It looks more like he's missing 50 or more watts.

Whatever happened to that magic number of 7 w/kg that Armstrong and co. use to claim was required to win a GT?

 

[BigBoat]

Yeah, let me get this straight...

Several riders, in the new "cleaner" era of cycling, are putting out the same power as doped to the gills Basso when he didn't even have to push himself to a dominating Giro win in 2006?

The French cycling magazine that has been estimating rider's power based on climb times for several years has estimated Basso is missing 35 watts from 2006, but from the numbers they show I'm not sure how they arrived at that. It looks more like he's missing 50 or more watts.

Whatever happened to that magic number of 7 w/kg that Armstrong and co. use to claim was required to win a GT?

Bros we dont know exactly what it was but I can tell you past freaks like Lemond and Hinault didnt have better than 5.5-5.7 on a long stage with 10k climbs like that...

A few "donations" and extra brain power among the Italian riders in Italy on home turf with many of the officials and authorities as their friend goes a LONG way me thinks....