Giro di Lombardia: Who is going to win it?

[la.margna]

cobo
felline
fuglsang
zaugg
are they starting? might be a candidate

 

[movingtarget]

Gilbert will win and will make it look easy like most of his other wins this year.

 

[Duartista]

cobo
felline
fuglsang
zaugg
are they starting? might be a candidate

Cobo and Felline are in the Geox squad. De la Fuente and Duarte seem to be in better form though, judging by Sabatini/Emilia.

 

[greatking88]

There is little or no case to be made for Mollema being a stronger climber, certainly not one stemming from the Vuelta. Better GT GC rider yes, better climber certainly not. Martin attacked on pretty much every mountain stage at the Vuelta, sometimes attacking on the penultimate climb as well as the final one, won a MTF, and still beat Mollema up to the top as often as Mollema beat him sitting with the favourites. If you are as good or better while riding in a considerably less optimal manner (because you want the win not time), you are stronger. At full gas on a good day for each, Martin is a stronger climber.

Mollema's advantage over Martin came from the Time Trial and to a lesser extent from one single bad day. That bad day represents his advantage in consistency, which is actually less than I'd have put it at before the Vuelta. Martin was surprisingly consistent for a rider with a reputation for challenging for a win one day and being in the autobus the next. He had one bad day and even that wasn't a disaster. However, he was dire in the Time Trial and unless he improves drastically at that, will never be as good a GC rider because a marginal advantage as a climber doesn't compensate for the stupid sort of time he gave away against the clock.

If Martin can improve his time trial, the Vuelta convinced me he can be a GC rider. But that's a big if. If I was part of Garmin management, I'd have him spend the entire period between the end of Catalonia and the end of the Giro, when his allergies screw up his competitiveness going around and around some indoor track on a time trial bike. With David Millar hitting him with a stick every time he gets out of optimal position. He'll never be a very good time triallist because his build is all wrong, but there's absolutely no reason why he can't learn proper technique.

Totally agree with this analysis. Martin actually said himself that he is a pure climber and will find it difficult to compete in Tours because of his TT ability. I really hope he can improve his TT to a competent level.

I'm going for an Irish rider to win Lombardy hopefully
Or maybe Samu.

 

[Gingerale]

Yes, I agree, particularly about the aesthetically dire but strangely endearing riding style. Whatever about Mollema having an explanation, because he took up racing pretty late, Martin has absolutely no excuse for it. His dad was a pro and his uncle was renowned for his beautiful peddling style. Grace on a bike sure as hell isn't genetic.

I pretty much find myself cheering for these guys in most races they are in. Fortunately they are both young and will both improve. I just hope that Martin sorts out his time trialling so that he isn't giving away time hand over fist and that Mollema figures out how to turn his strong performances into wins. It would be nice if he started with Lombardia, but that's probably a bit too much to hope for!

that made me lol. so true.

thinking back on the vuelta, dan and bauke made some of my favorite moments watching that race. not a pretty style but i find myself cheering them too.

 

[Tei6chai]

What planet?

I'm baffled by the options listed in the poll at the top of this thread.

For what it's worth, here's Davide Cassani's RAI (Italian State Broadcaster) ratings:

Gilbert *****
Nibali ****
M. Fernandez ****
Mollema ****
Uran ****
J. Rodriguez ***
Visconti **
Marcato **
Lovquist **
Betancourt **
Basso *
Paolini *
Martin *
S. Sanchez *
Cunego *

Much more realistic in my view

 

[The Hitch]

I'm baffled by the options listed in the poll at the top of this thread.

For what it's worth, here's Davide Cassani's RAI (Italian State Broadcaster) ratings:

Gilbert *****
Nibali ****
Hernandez ****
Mollema ****
Uran ****
Fernandez ***
Visconti **
Marcato **
Lovquist **
Betancourt **
Basso *
Paolini *
Martin *
S. Sanchez *
Cunego *

Much more realistic in my view

Would that be Fuji Hernandez as one of the mega favourites?

And im pretty sure thats not his teammate Koldo 3 names down

Dont want to be called a fanboy again by people incapable of discussion, but I do think Gonzalez shouldnt be below 1 or 2 of the people above him.

Also is Oliver riding the race?

 

[Tei6chai]

Would that be Fuji Hernandez as one of the mega favourites?

Oops ... thinko

Got confused between the bookies table shown on screen and Davide Cassani's modifications in the audio commentary.

There should be no Hernandez. It's supposed to be M. Fernandez

 

[The Hitch]

Oops ... thinko

Got confused between the bookies table shown on screen and Davide Cassani's modifications in the audio commentary.

There should be no Hernandez. It's supposed to be M. Fernandez

Well then whose the Fernandez 3 lines down?

 

[Tei6chai]

Well then whose the Fernandez 3 lines down?

I'm guessing Daniel Moreno Fernández (on the basis of his Piemonte win this week).

 

[The Hitch]

I know that Daniel Moreno is Fernandez, but there is both a Hernandez and a Fernandez in your list.

Gilbert *****
Nibali ****
Hernandez ****
Mollema ****
Uran ****
Fernandez ***
Visconti **
Marcato **
Lovquist **
Betancourt **
Basso *
Paolini *
Martin *
S. Sanchez *
Cunego *

Much more realistic in my view

so I was asking if the Hernandez with **** was Moreno, who was the Fernandez with ***

Edit: i now see youve changed Hernandez to Fernandez and Fernandez to J. Rodriguez.

BTW why do you refer to Moreno by his mothers surname but Sanchez and Purto by their fathers one?

 

[Tei6chai]

I know that Daniel Moreno is Fernandez, but there is both a Hernandez and a Fernandez in your list.



so I was asking if the Hernandez with **** was Moreno, who was the Fernandez with ***

Edit: i now see youve changed Hernandez to Fernandez and Fernandez to J. Rodriguez.

Yep, like I said, a 'thinko' ... I just got confused while transcribing from one virtual desktop (with the RAI video recording on) to another virtual desaktop (with the browser on).

BTW why do you refer to Moreno by his mothers surname but Sanchez and Purto by their fathers one?

Cos I'm not anally retentive. That's what RAI showed, so that's what I typed.

 

[Scansorial]

What about Joaquim Rodriguez? I figured more people would mention him. Does he not have any form at the moment? Is Katusha riding for someone else? I can't see them putting all their faith in Pozzato after how they treated him this year.

 

[AntonioRossi]

Mollema FTW. Definitely podium place for him is definitely possible. Don't think GVA or Gilbert is gonna win. Hopefully de Gendt has some good form

 

[Duartista]

I'm baffled by the options listed in the poll at the top of this thread.

For what it's worth, here's Davide Cassani's RAI (Italian State Broadcaster) ratings:

Gilbert *****
Nibali ****
M. Fernandez ****
Mollema ****
Uran ****
J. Rodriguez ***
Visconti **
Marcato **
Lovquist **
Betancourt **
Basso *
Paolini *
Martin *
S. Sanchez *
Cunego *

Much more realistic in my view

Missing the Movistar and Euskaltel (except Sanchez) blocks. Both teams will have at least 1 guy up there in the top 10, I should think.

 

[Havetts]

NOS Stream goes live at 14;30 for the Dutch people (geo-restricted ).

http://nos.nl/dossier/218768-wielerklassiekers-2011/tab/125/live/

 

[Zoncolan]

Nobody came close

 

[bicycle_rack]

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Nobody came close

Yep, I think we can safely say that one came out of left field.

The four people who picked Dan Martin deserve some kind of honourable mention, I suppose. I certainly didn't pick him, because I just thought he seemed a bit tired in the warm up races. Mollema was a bit disappointing, given that he showed form at Emilia.

 

[mewmewmew13]

I picked van Summeren and he kicked up some dust in the beginning