Giro di Lombardia: Who is going to win it?

[The Hitch]

You do indeed need luck. But there's also a skill to turning ability and form into wins. I think that Mollema has the ability to rack up wins but he hasn't done so.

As theyoungest notes Dan Martin is a very similar rider to Mollema, is about the same age and made his step forward a year and a half ago at the same time as Mollema in the same race. Since then Martin has seven wins, Mollema has yet to add a second. I don't think that luck explains that.

I guess the points jersey from the Vuelta does kind of count.

He sprinted and put his hands in the air

So its 7-2 to Martin.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

yeah. and a 4th place in a GT is more impressive then anything martin has this year I guess.

But in the classics, I'd have trouble suggesting Mollema is better. They are probably pretty close.

WOuld be cool if a small break with the likes of rui costa could win this.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

On evidence so far, Martin has a better sprint and is probably a little better as an outright climber. Mollema is clearly better in the time trial and also seems more consistent. But, with the exception of the Mollema's advantage in the TT these are small differences between two very similar riders. Mollema clearly has loads of talent, but so far at least he just hasn't been able to win races.

 

[Escarabajo]

And he also won a stage at a GT.

What about Duarte. Good climber and demonstrated with his Under 23 WC win in 08 he can sprint. ( a dark horse/ hunch ) He has to do something soon.

That injury that he had earlier in the year set him back a little. He is a darkhorse of course, but no favotite IMHO.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

I dont think gilbert will win it

 

[Zoncolan]

Dani Moreno

 

[theyoungest]

On evidence so far, Martin has a better sprint and is probably a little better as an outright climber. Mollema is clearly better in the time trial and also seems more consistent. But, with the exception of the Mollema's advantage in the TT these are small differences between two very similar riders. Mollema clearly has loads of talent, but so far at least he just hasn't been able to win races.

It has to be said though that a lot of Martin's wins were in quite small races which Rabo didn't even participate in (actually I'd like Rabo to do more of these Italian races, they're more fun than the Dutch Food Valley Classic and all that crap).

Before the Vuelta I'd have agreed with you about Martin being the better outright climber, now I'm not that convinced anymore. Mollema has simply outclimbed him too often to still ascribe that completely to a better consistency.

 

[greatking88]

It has to be said though that a lot of Martin's wins were in quite small races which Rabo didn't even participate in (actually I'd like Rabo to do more of these Italian races, they're more fun than the Dutch Food Valley Classic and all that crap).

Before the Vuelta I'd have agreed with you about Martin being the better outright climber, now I'm not that convinced anymore. Mollema has simply outclimbed him too often to still ascribe that completely to a better consistency.

I agree with you to a point, if you take away the Vuelta timetrial, Dan Martin lost 2minutes to Mollema over the climbing stages. But also if you consider the amount of times Dan Martin made crazy attacks on certain stages e.g La Covatilla, Angliru and Pena Cabarga, Maybe if Martin didnt attack in these stages he could have just sat in with the favourites and cruised home, he would have been better placed with Mollema..I think there pretty equal as climbers to be honest. Martin makes for exciting racing though.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

You do indeed need luck. But there's also a skill to turning ability and form into wins. I think that Mollema has the ability to rack up wins but he hasn't done so.

As theyoungest notes Dan Martin is a very similar rider to Mollema, is about the same age and made his step forward a year and a half ago at the same time as Mollema in the same race. They even have the same ungainly riding style. Since then Martin has seven wins, Mollema has yet to add a second. I don't think that luck explains that. I think that Martin has picked up the knack of turning ability into wins faster than Mollema has. I have every confidence that Bauke will get there sooner or later however.

Mollema however made a huge leap above Martin GT-wise. Last year Martin was undeniable the stronger climber. This year, I would say Mollema is a stronger overall climber. And he also has better recuperation and time trial abilities.

While Martin virtually didn't progress much at all in 2011. Ofcourse he wins more, but as an overall rider he lost his advantage to Mollema completely. Which is weird.

 

[trevim]

Mollema however made a huge leap above Martin GT-wise. Last year Martin was undeniable the stronger climber. This year, I would say Mollema is a stronger overall climber. And he also has better recuperation and time trial abilities.

While Martin virtually didn't progress much at all in 2011. Ofcourse he wins more, but as an overall rider he lost his advantage to Mollema completely. Which is weird.

I disagree when you say Martin hasn't improved this year. This year he showed that he can play a role in 3-weeks races while last year (and before) his most (and almost single) result in a GT was a 8th place on Zoncolan. Impressive but not what you expect from a guy who was supposed to ride for GT.

Anyway Mollema is overall a better rider I think. Better TT, more consistency on mountains (even if I think that when Martin is on he's better) and a very good recovery that Martin hasn't shown.

In my opinion Mollema has to improve his tactical sense a bit more to win races. Martin has that I think and is slightly better sprinter so he can win more "easily".

 

[Tank Engine]

I agree with you to a point, if you take away the Vuelta timetrial, Dan Martin lost 2minutes to Mollema over the climbing stages. But also if you consider the amount of times Dan Martin made crazy attacks on certain stages e.g La Covatilla, Angliru and Pena Cabarga, Maybe if Martin didnt attack in these stages he could have just sat in with the favourites and cruised home, he would have been better placed with Mollema..I think there pretty equal as climbers to be honest. Martin makes for exciting racing though.

I pretty much agree. After the time trial Danny Boy concentrated on stages rather than GC, but he did have a bad day on the day Taaramae won. Mollema wins hands down in TTs and maybe edges Danny in terms of consistency in grand tours (although there's a small sample size here).

 

[Fowsto Cope-E]

This season has been odd; TGBM is no longer just a joke choice in these polls. You have to go for Gilbert in this one, but for the hell of it, i'll pick Visconti.

 

[Winterfold]

Philbert has to lose at some point (when he is properly going for the win rather than deciding he wont and backing off)

I went for Mollema as Uran was I guess 'Other'.

Dim's top 3 looks good to me.

But... reality check... Gilbert will probably still be on another planet on this kind of one day parcours.

Wierd how total dominance moulds your opinion of a rider...

 

[Fowsto Cope-E]

Philbert has to lose at some point (when he is properly going for the win rather than deciding he wont and backing off)

I went for Mollema as Uran was I guess 'Other'.

Dim's top 3 looks good to me.

But... reality check... Gilbert will probably still be on another planet on this kind of one day parcours.

Wierd how total dominance moulds your opinion of a rider...

+1, Gilbert is gonna lose one of these days, but still, you have to think he's going to win.

 

[Gingerale]

i loved this race last year and would like to see danny boy or nibs or cunego or samu win. a mollema win would be awesome too.

voted for phil though gilbert ftw

 

[US Patent Exploding Cyclist]

I'm not picking him above Gilbert, but I'm surprised no one has mentioned Scarponi at all. Did he say he is riding for Cunego?

 

[the asian]

GVA has a chance. The way he is riding. 2nd at Piemonte is good warm up.

 

[auscyclefan94]

GVA has a chance. The way he is riding. 2nd at Piemonte is good warm up.

Well Dekker_Tifosi and Greg himself said Lombardia generally doesn't suit him with the form he has Greg has given him a shot at being up there at the finish.

 

[Kwibus]

I pretty much agree. After the time trial Danny Boy concentrated on stages rather than GC, but he did have a bad day on the day Taaramae won. Mollema wins hands down in TTs and maybe edges Danny in terms of consistency in grand tours (although there's a small sample size here).

To me it seems that Mollema is mostly a lot more consistent compared to Martin. Daniels inconsistency will make it hard for him to ride top10 in GC's, but it certainly makes him win races. Something Mollema didn't do this year.

 

[Kwibus]

I'm not picking him above Gilbert, but I'm surprised no one has mentioned Scarponi at all. Did he say he is riding for Cunego?

Good you mentioned him. I totally forgot about him for this race. Definately a contender unless his form is still at Vuelta level.

Really looking forward to the race! Weather prediction seems to be rather good.

 

[Kvinto]

I'm not picking him above Gilbert, but I'm surprised no one has mentioned Scarponi at all. Did he say he is riding for Cunego?

i'm actually looking forward to see both Scarponi and Cunego working for Niemiec, it would be funny But seriously, when the rider abandons Vuelta on 3 Sep after 14 stages and since that moment he rides only one race i don't see much chances for contending in Lombardia on 15 Octon 15 Oct

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Mollema however made a huge leap above Martin GT-wise. Last year Martin was undeniable the stronger climber. This year, I would say Mollema is a stronger overall climber. And he also has better recuperation and time trial abilities.

There is little or no case to be made for Mollema being a stronger climber, certainly not one stemming from the Vuelta. Better GT GC rider yes, better climber certainly not. Martin attacked on pretty much every mountain stage at the Vuelta, sometimes attacking on the penultimate climb as well as the final one, won a MTF, and still beat Mollema up to the top as often as Mollema beat him sitting with the favourites. If you are as good or better while riding in a considerably less optimal manner (because you want the win not time), you are stronger. At full gas on a good day for each, Martin is a stronger climber.

Mollema's advantage over Martin came from the Time Trial and to a lesser extent from one single bad day. That bad day represents his advantage in consistency, which is actually less than I'd have put it at before the Vuelta. Martin was surprisingly consistent for a rider with a reputation for challenging for a win one day and being in the autobus the next. He had one bad day and even that wasn't a disaster. However, he was dire in the Time Trial and unless he improves drastically at that, will never be as good a GC rider because a marginal advantage as a climber doesn't compensate for the stupid sort of time he gave away against the clock.

If Martin can improve his time trial, the Vuelta convinced me he can be a GC rider. But that's a big if. If I was part of Garmin management, I'd have him spend the entire period between the end of Catalonia and the end of the Giro, when his allergies screw up his competitiveness going around and around some indoor track on a time trial bike. With David Millar hitting him with a stick every time he gets out of optimal position. He'll never be a very good time triallist because his build is all wrong, but there's absolutely no reason why he can't learn proper technique.

 

[theyoungest]

There is little or no case to be made for Mollema being a stronger climber, certainly not one stemming from the Vuelta. Better GT GC rider yes, better climber certainly not. Martin attacked on pretty much every mountain stage at the Vuelta, sometimes attacking on the penultimate climb as well as the final one, won a MTF, and still beat Mollema up to the top as often as Mollema beat him sitting with the favourites. If you are as good or better while riding in a considerably less optimal manner (because you want the win not time), you are stronger. At full gas on a good day for each, Martin is a stronger climber.

Mollema's advantage over Martin came from the Time Trial and to a lesser extent from one single bad day. That bad day represents his advantage in consistency, which is actually less than I'd have put it at before the Vuelta. Martin was surprisingly consistent for a rider with a reputation for challenging for a win one day and being in the autobus the next. He had one bad day and even that wasn't a disaster. However, he was dire in the Time Trial and unless he improves drastically at that, will never be as good a GC rider because a marginal advantage as a climber doesn't compensate for the stupid sort of time he gave away against the clock.

If Martin can improve his time trial, the Vuelta convinced me he can be a GC rider. But that's a big if. If I was part of Garmin management, I'd have him spend the entire period between the end of Catalonia and the end of the Giro, when his allergies screw up his competitiveness going around and around some indoor track on a time trial bike. With David Millar hitting him with a stick every time he gets out of optimal position. He'll never be a very good time triallist because his build is all wrong, but there's absolutely no reason why he can't learn proper technique.

Martin is definitely a more exciting rider to watch, that's for sure. Mollema is a clever little fella, doesn't ride into the wind too often.

What I like about both is their "unconventional" riding style. With Mollema, I assume it's because he only took up bike racing at age 18. In fact, just before the Vuelta he mentioned on his website that he'd done his first ever training behind a scooter. That's how inexperienced this guy still is.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Martin is definitely a more exciting rider to watch, that's for sure. Mollema is a clever little fella, doesn't ride into the wind too often.

What I like about both is their "unconventional" riding style. With Mollema, I assume it's because he only took up bike racing at age 18. In fact, just before the Vuelta he mentioned on his website that he'd done his first ever training behind a scooter. That's how inexperienced this guy still is.

Yes, I agree, particularly about the aesthetically dire but strangely endearing riding style. Whatever about Mollema having an explanation, because he took up racing pretty late, Martin has absolutely no excuse for it. His dad was a pro and his uncle was renowned for his beautiful peddling style. Grace on a bike sure as hell isn't genetic.

I pretty much find myself cheering for these guys in most races they are in. Fortunately they are both young and will both improve. I just hope that Martin sorts out his time trialling so that he isn't giving away time hand over fist and that Mollema figures out how to turn his strong performances into wins. It would be nice if he started with Lombardia, but that's probably a bit too much to hope for!

 

[hatcher]

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/1...ardia-Cunego-sole-captain-for-Lampre-ISD.aspx

Scarponi out. Tonsillitis.