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Giro d'Italia 2013, stage 18: Oderzo - Val Di Zoldo 161 km

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Roglic has to attack today if he doesn't want to completely bank on the ITT (which he shouldn't as there's no indication he's better than the other two in an ITT right now). There's obviously no statistical significance but I think he slightly underperforms in super long/hard stages so maybe Tuesday wasn't an outlier. Tre Cime stage will be equally tough so I see no benefit on gambling on tomorrow. If the injury is still bothering him I also don't see how that one more day would make a big difference.

This Vuelta style stage is his bread and butter, Coi as the perfect launch pad, he's the better descender than the other two (also more happy to take risks) and he might profit from the fact that they look at each other too much in the last kilometers.
Looking forward to some great action. Roglic, who I've backed to win, disappointed two days ago. He would need to be 100 percent to outdistance Thomas and Almeida, and I'm not sure he is. Their riding style generally is not to attack so it's up to him to do so today if he wants to gain time. But I think he won't try unless he's feeling super. Even on the last climb he might only gain a few seconds. And if he's not able to drop them in a mountain stage he won't do so in a MTT, I'm afraid.

I am really impressed with Almeida. I thought he'd plateaued as a slightly below top level GC rider, but (even if he says he's only at 2021 level) he's stepped up. I'm not going to go into the "what ifs" regarding Remco and Tao (who despite being GT winners themselves haven't yet proven to be on Pog/Vingo level), so I'm just going to say that I think he can win this over Thomas.