Looking forward to some great action. Roglic, who I've backed to win, disappointed two days ago. He would need to be 100 percent to outdistance Thomas and Almeida, and I'm not sure he is. Their riding style generally is not to attack so it's up to him to do so today if he wants to gain time. But I think he won't try unless he's feeling super. Even on the last climb he might only gain a few seconds. And if he's not able to drop them in a mountain stage he won't do so in a MTT, I'm afraid.
I am really impressed with Almeida. I thought he'd plateaued as a slightly below top level GC rider, but (even if he says he's only at 2021 level) he's stepped up. I'm not going to go into the "what ifs" regarding Remco and Tao (who despite being GT winners themselves haven't yet proven to be on Pog/Vingo level), so I'm just going to say that I think he can win this over Thomas.