Giro d'Italia 2015 stage 19: Gravellona Toce–Cervinia 236km

[Red Rick]

Stage 19: Gravellona Toce – Cervinia 236 kms MTF

Start time: 10:30, May 29th

Analysis:
Longest MTF stage of the race, and second longest overall. Starting from Gravellona Toce, the peloton will go through a pretty uneventful first 150 kms, with just a few bumps, including the GPM3 Croce Serra (6.9 kms at 3.8%). After those 150 kms, however, things get serious all of a sudden: three GPM1 back to back, by far the biggest climb combo of this Giro. The road starts going up to the Saint-Barthélemy (16.5 kms at 6.7%), which is quite a demanding climb, whose average gradient is lowered by a few flat stretches. After the descent starts the Col de Saint-Panthaléon (16.5 kms at 7.2%), the hardest climb of the day and possible keypoint of the stage. Here in 1997, on the same finale, Gotti attacked and went to win stage and jersey in Cervinia. After the short descent of S.Panthaléon the final climb starts, Cervinia (19.2 kms at 5.2%). The last 2 kms of this climb are basically flat, so you'd better attack earlier...

WINNERS IN CERVINIA

1960 Kazianka
1997 Gotti
2012 Amador

Expectations:
Expect Astana to try real hard to protect Aru's third place.

Also expect Taxus to keep making claims Landa can still win even if he gains no time today

 

[Netserk]

Contador will win.

 

[SeriousSam]

Mikel Landa will win.

 

[Anderis]

Hesjedal will win.

 

[Alcanelo]

Betancur will win.

Aru to bonk harder than Tommy V.

Landa will also drop another 40-60 secs

 

[staubsauger]

Is this finally the day of Steven Kruijswijk!?

He wants a stage win and the blue jersey. So he has to go. Otherwise it will be Landa to get the jersey and Hesjedal to pass him in the general classification.

Maybe he will wait for Finestre, though.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Steven to drop them all for a great solo win.

Back to earth, I think this could be won by the break as well.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

No Champremier and no Tze Core makes me a sad bat.

Both would have made beautiful additions. Tze Core-St Pantaléon-Cervinia would be great; Champremier-St Barthélemy-St Pantaléon-Cervinia would be amazing, Tze Core-Champremier-St Pantaléon-Cervinia would be best.

Beñat was 25 mins down today, he's going to attack and hope that Kruijswijk isn't allowed out of the bunch, as he has an interesting combination of being a long way down time-wise so Tinkoff won't care about him attacking, but quite high up the GC so Катюша, Sky and BMC may not be too keen to let him go. GPM is still open with three potential candidates - Beñat from the break, Landa from the lead group, and Kruijswijk from either of the two.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Re: Giro d'Italia 2015 stage 19: Gravellona Toce–Cervinia 23

Stage is for a GC-contender, Hesjedal looks great, but Contador could put his final mark on this Giro with a fine win.

...but I think it will be another one for Landa.

(*I don't think it would be another breakaway win.)

 

[staubsauger]

Somehow amazing ain't it? GC might be decided. But it's likely we'll see a big fight for the blue jersey to adequate honor the upcoming mountain stages!

 

[mrhender]

The pace to the first (cat.1) climb will be insane. No way this will be left for the break..

(performing a calculated jinx upon myself here)

 

[LaFlorecita]

Berto to take this one

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Probably a break-win with Intxausti, Betancur, Nieve, Pirazzi in the mix. Hoping for Betancur
Among the GC contenders, they will finish like this: Contador+Landa > Hesjedal > Kruijswijk > Trofimov > Aru

 

[staubsauger]

Aru looked absolutely bonked today!

If he somehow manages to keep the podium with this disastrous shape, he's a true campione!

Not a grande campione like Contador. But if Aru survives, some day he will be able to savor the pain not to defend himself, but to gain a victory!

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

No Champremier and no Tze Core makes me a sad bat.

Both would have made beautiful additions. Tze Core-St Pantaléon-Cervinia would be great; Champremier-St Barthélemy-St Pantaléon-Cervinia would be amazing, Tze Core-Champremier-St Pantaléon-Cervinia would be best.

Beñat was 25 mins down today, he's going to attack and hope that Kruijswijk isn't allowed out of the bunch, as he has an interesting combination of being a long way down time-wise so Tinkoff won't care about him attacking, but quite high up the GC so Катюша, Sky and BMC may not be too keen to let him go. GPM is still open with three potential candidates - Beñat from the break, Landa from the lead group, and Kruijswijk from either of the two.

What is so great about the core and champremier. You always mention it but for me these climbs don't seem to be so much better

 

[Jspear]

AC and Landa to be the last two standing, AC will win from an attack in the last K. Aru will slip off the podium. Hesjedal will move up one more place in the gc.

 

[Carols]

Humm at what KM to go will AC be isolated? Will he isolate himself attacking? These are the burning questions

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

No Champremier and no Tze Core makes me a sad bat.

Both would have made beautiful additions. Tze Core-St Pantaléon-Cervinia would be great; Champremier-St Barthélemy-St Pantaléon-Cervinia would be amazing, Tze Core-Champremier-St Pantaléon-Cervinia would be best.

Beñat was 25 mins down today, he's going to attack and hope that Kruijswijk isn't allowed out of the bunch, as he has an interesting combination of being a long way down time-wise so Tinkoff won't care about him attacking, but quite high up the GC so Катюша, Sky and BMC may not be too keen to let him go. GPM is still open with three potential candidates - Beñat from the break, Landa from the lead group, and Kruijswijk from either of the two.

What is so great about the core and champremier. You always mention it but for me these climbs don't seem to be so much better

Champremier is, like San Carlo, a different style of climb to most of the rest of the Valdostan climbs. It helps mix the stage up and make it harder to tell who a stage will suit.

Tze Core is one of my absolute favourite of all climbs. It keeps the classic build-up part of all climbs from Verrès (like Joux or Brusson-Estoul) but where they flatten out and have that Tour de France like epic quality, Tze Core then throws a really steep bit in it, close enough to the end to tempt people if it's second last climb of the day, and far enough away from the end of the climb to not be completely dependent on its finale. It's a really great compromise between long, drawn out classic Alpine climb with just enough hints of brutality, but without becoming a Javier Guillén festival of sidewinding to make Escartín look like he's rock steady. The scenery is some of the best , even for the Valle d'Aosta (see this shot from the first half of the climb, the part shared with Joux and Estoul).

This Giro della Valle d'Aosta stage from a few years ago is one of my favourites:

 

[LeindersGains]

Amador to take it again.

 

[red_flanders]

Interesting stage for sure. I wouldn't put 2 cents on a prediction given how this race has played out. Seems like almost anything could happen.

That said, Contador is really strong and has all the tactical advantage in the world. Astana will almost certainly isolate him on or before the penultimate climb, and from there he's following wheels. If there's still a break up the road, and I think there will be, it's not clear anyone on GC is motivated to catch them, or that it's in their tactical interest. I think the break wins and Landa picks up a few seconds on Contador in the last couple of K before the flattish finish.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Humm at what KM to go will AC be isolated? Will he isolate himself attacking? These are the burning questions

I think our Berto will get isolated near the top of Saint Pantaleon but Berto will not panic of course and will follow the Astana train until he feels the time is right to attack!

 

[Taxus4a]

This stage has non sense. the strong rtider of the Giro cant attack, so, it is a pity, this way they are finishing cycling.
Other way would be an stage to remember very long.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

Humm at what KM to go will AC be isolated? Will he isolate himself attacking? These are the burning questions

I think our Berto will get isolated near the top of Saint Pantaleon but Berto will not panic of course and will follow the Astana train until he feels the time is right to attack!

'our berto' ?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Humm at what KM to go will AC be isolated? Will he isolate himself attacking? These are the burning questions

I think our Berto will get isolated near the top of Saint Pantaleon but Berto will not panic of course and will follow the Astana train until he feels the time is right to attack!

'our berto' ?

Yes he's ours.... don't you dare say otherwise

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

This stage has non sense. the strong rtider of the Giro cant attack, so, it is a pity, this way they are finishing cycling.
Other way would be an stage to remember very long.

I thought he attacked last 3 mountain stages in a row, maybe you werent paying attention