Giro d'Italia 2017 STAGE 21: Monza – Milano 29.3 km ITT

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

FYI, Alberto Contador went from being ITT fodder to smashing them between 2007 and 2008, so anything is possible. With that said, unless Quintana improves his ITT he is more likely to have a Sastre/Andy Schleck career than a Contador/Froome career.

Then again Sastre won a Tour de France with the ITT of his life and Schleck "won" a Tour de France so Quintana shouldn't give up completely.

Say what?

1st 2003 Tour de Pologne stage 7b (19 km)
5th 2004 Paris-Nice stage 1 (13 km)
7th 2005 Paris-Nice stage 1 (4 km)
4th 2005 Setmana Catalana stage 6 (16 km)
1st 2005 Vuelta al Pais Vasco stage 5b (9 km)
4th 2006 Paris-Nice stage 1 (5 km)
8th 2006 Criterium International stage 3 (8 km)
8th 2006 Vuelta al Pais Vasco stage 6 (24 km)
7th 2006 Tour de Romandie stage 5 (20 km)
5th 2007 Paris-Nice stage 1 (5 km)
5th 2007 Vuelta a Castilla y León stage 1 (10 km)
2nd 2007 Vuelta al Pais Vasco stage 6 (14 km)
6th 2007 Tour de France stage 13 (54 km)
5th 2007 Tour de France stage 19 (55,5 km)

Granted, in 2008 he had his best TT results to that date with a 1st place in Castilla y León and Pais Vasco, a 2nd place at the Giro and 4th places at the Vuelta and Olympic Games, but I don't see how he ever qualified as "TT fodder". He was always a strong TTer, the results on paper may not mean much but if you look deeper, some of those results are very impressive. Take for example the 2004 Paris-Nice ITT:

1 Jorg Jaksche (Ger) Team CSC 17.19 (45.74 km/h)
2 Davide Rebellin (Ita) Gerolsteiner 0.04
3 Erik Dekker (Ned) Rabobank
4 David Millar (GBr) Cofidis, le credit par Telephone 0.13
5 Alberto Contador (Spa) Liberty Seguros
6 Alex Zülle (Swi) Phonak Hearing Systems 0.14
7 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC 0.16
8 Grischa Niermann (Ger) Rabobank 0.22
9 Jens Voigt (Ger) Team CSC
10 Laurent Brochard (Fra) Ag2R Prevoyance

There's quite some TT power in there, and, as a 21-year old, he's in that top-10 with riders between the ages of 27 and 35, average age 31.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

He began smoking in 2009.

What? Do you mean that as a metaphor for the decline in his form or literally?

Neither, I hope, although it could explain his decline in form

I read it as staubsauger saying Contador began smoking TTs in 2009 which isn't wrong

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

I'm suddenly thinking: dark horse Zakarin could take this.

Looks the freshest to me + has the tt pedigree. TD reminds me of Evans in the '08 tour - just a bit spent.

Where do I sign?
Any of Dumo, Tibo or Zaka will do

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

What's your point caller? TTs don't get broken down into weight classification

this... we don't have weight categories for climbing either. If you're featherweight, you have an advantage uphill, if you're heavy, you have an advantage on the flat. If you're in between (Pinot, Zakarin, Contador, Nibali; Froome, Dumoulin, Jungels depening on your definition of "heavy", "featherweight" and "in between") you're lucky, you can do both.

 

[Pharazon]

i remember a final giro tt a few years ago that Marco Pinotti won where he was basically motor paced around the whole course. i just hope that the same type of blatant stuff doesn't go on today

 

[movingtarget]

Dumoulin will be happy to be starting behind Zakarin but of course he still needs to have the legs. But I think even though Dumoulin looked very tired yesterday he wasn't the only one and I think his TT pedigree even not at 100% will be enough to get him the overall but it could be much closer than expected.

 

[Red Rick]

I actually think Dumoulin probably has an advantage in that he's used riding TTs with big titles directly on the line.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re:

I actually think Dumoulin probably has an advantage in that he's used riding TTs with big titles directly on the line.

As Cyrille Guimard used to say, you ride every TT full on even if you don't have a prayer of a result because one day that experience will be crucial

 

[Billie]

Re:

I actually think Dumoulin probably has an advantage in that he's used riding TTs with big titles directly on the line.

he always came up short in the biggest TT's in his life though. Utrecht, Worlds, Olympics

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Start time list finally available:*
Times in CET
1st rider out 13:45
1st TT specialist (Bialoblocki) 13:46
Van Emden 14:26
Kiriyenka 14:45
Dillier 15:20
Sanchez 15:42
Siutsou 15:52
last 1minute gap/beginning of 3 minute gaps (top 15) 16:11
Jungels 16:32
Zakarin 16:44
Dumoulin 16:47
Pinot 16:50
Nibali 16:53
Quintana 16:56
All done by 17:31 (or 17:31:30 if Quintana is off the podium)


*: in case anyone is interested in discussing Stage 21 of the Giro in this thread

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

I actually think Dumoulin probably has an advantage in that he's used riding TTs with big titles directly on the line.

he always came up short in the biggest TT's in his life though. Utrecht, Worlds, Olympics

In his defense, he did well in Utrecht, the course was simply not his (flat, fast, better for dennis/cancellara).
In the worlds he has only been in top form once. Last year he was too tired (and it was not a real goal anymore as he already peaked twice), and the year before he just had his Vuelta breakthrough (still came in 5th and better than T. Martin).

And in the olympics he just barely recovered in time from his broken wrist, which was still hampering him on some parts of the course.

So if you sum it up the way you do, it sounds way worse than it actually was. He still did relatively good TT's. You just can't win all the time.
But now he's not up against Dennis, Martin and Cancellara, and he doesn't need to win the time trial. He needs to keep Nibali, Pinot and especially Quintana at a big distance.
Entirely different.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I actually think Dumoulin probably has an advantage in that he's used riding TTs with big titles directly on the line.

he always came up short in the biggest TT's in his life though. Utrecht, Worlds, Olympics

In Utrecht he was 4th in an incredibly tough field, putting I think it was 53s into Quintana in 13.8km. His Olympics performance was hampered by the Tour crash and both of the last worlds TT's failed because it was just post peak.

 

[Squire]

So much weird stuff has happened this Giro that I just can't believe we'll have a normal, incident-free TT.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

So much weird stuff has happened this Giro that I just can't believe we'll have a normal, incident-free TT.

Just imagine Dumoulin throws away the giro win by doing a Menchov on the last km. I mean something has to happen, because I still can't believe that a Dutch might win a gt.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

I actually think Dumoulin probably has an advantage in that he's used riding TTs with big titles directly on the line.

he always came up short in the biggest TT's in his life though. Utrecht, Worlds, Olympics

In Utrecht he was 4th in an incredibly tough field, putting I think it was 53s into Quintana in 13.8km. His Olympics performance was hampered by the Tour crash and both of the last worlds TT's failed because it was just post peak.

The wind definitely played a part in Utrecht. I don't remember any of the late starters getting within 40 seconds of Dennis, so we shouldn't use that as a comparison.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

Start time list finally available:*
Times in CET
1st rider out 13:45
1st TT specialist (Bialoblocki) 13:46
Van Emden 14:26
Kiriyenka 14:45
Dillier 15:20
Sanchez 15:42
Siutsou 15:52
last 1minute gap/beginning of 3 minute gaps (top 15) 16:11
Jungels 16:32
Zakarin 16:44
Dumoulin 16:47
Pinot 16:50
Nibali 16:53
Quintana 16:56
All done by 17:31 (or 17:31:30 if Quintana is off the podium)


*: in case anyone is interested in discussing Stage 21 of the Giro in this thread

Not to be a jerk, but the starting times have been available since yesterday.

 

[spiritualride]

I think Dumo wins the giro with plenty of time to spare, as much as I wish to see a surprise instead. I don't buy it that he is more tired than the others. He's climbed like a beast this week when considering his size.

 

[wirral]

Re:

I think Dumo wins the giro with plenty of time to spare, as much as I wish to see a surprise instead. I don't buy it that he is more tired than the others. He's climbed like a beast this week when considering his size.

I agree [barring Rabofail] (yes I know he doesn't ride for Rabo-Jumbo)

(Never underestimate the power of Rabofail.)

 

[mavmav]

Re:

I am not sure I will get to watch the full stage today, but I don't feel 100% sure that either Quintana or Dumoulin will win. Both have to have the best TT possible, and for the others to be mediocre...I guess its all to play for with the top 5 riders.
And anyway, I would like to see Nibali win...

So if Dumoulin has the best TT possible, he needs Nibali and Pinot to be mediocre too pass them?

Ok...

 

[saneguy]

I think TD will have this one nice and easy. Quintana will probably be off the podium.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I would love to see a Dumoulin, Pinot, Zakarin podium. Nibali in there somewhere would also be fine. Just hoping that Quintana will fall out of the podium and I'm happy.

 

[Chomsky]

Re: Re:

Anyone know where I can find the results at the 1st time check of stage 10?

Thank you.

http://06.live-radsport.ch/details_210710/Giro_d%E2%80%99Italia__Etappe_10.html

 

[SafeBet]

I rode the middle part of the TT this morning. As I said, very wide roads, panflat, there's a slight headwind when you get out of Monza heading towards Sesto San Giovanni, maybe a couple of kms.

From then on, plenty of buildings along the road so wind shouldn't be a factor.

Funny note: I wasn't far from Bob Jungels when he did his recon of the route. Don't know if he was going full gas but I have never felt so useless on a bike as today

 

[Kwibus]

This will be a tt long remembered. Im pretty sure it will come down seconds.

Some people seem to convinced of the outcome, but I'm certainly not. After 3 weeks of racing fatigue will play a big role and I think Tom certainly is Pretty much dead, but I've also seen others struggling. I think there might be some upsets today.
Tom is dutch afterall and the dutch tend to fail when it matters.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re: Re:

Not to be a jerk, but the starting times have been available since yesterday.

My gratitude to those who were aware of this and posted the info here. Oh, wait...

It was not evident on the Giro site, or a google search, before I went to bed or when I first got up.