Giro d'Italia 2020, stage 10: Lanciano – Tortoreto 177 km

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if he’s the strongest climber and he races with consistent aggression in the mountain stages he can still win the Giro. If he Isn’t or he doesn’t, he can’t.
He needs an attack like the one from Froome some years ago - but a thing like that only happens once in a century.

How often does a rider who is outside the Top 10 halfway through a GT end up winning the whole contest? And if that same rider finished 100th in the first time trial?
 
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fuglsang is not a gc winner, how many punctures does this guy have? And besides that he is not looking particularly strong, Nibali didn't look great either. Pozzo and Kelderman look the strongest for now.
 
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He needs an attack like the one from Froome some years ago - but a thing like that only happens once in a century.

How often does a rider who is outside the Top 10 halfway through a GT end up winning the whole contest? And if that same rider finished 100th in the first time trial?
This is not a remotely typical situation. He’s 140 seconds down in 11th place. Nibali is the only rider in the top 10 who has ever won a GT, but more importantly he’s the only rider in the top 10 who has ever been remotely close to winning a GT and he hasnt won one in four years and is about to turn 36.

Fuglsang hasn’t been remotely close either and he’s also old. So it was always likely that he would be unable to put three weeks together again. Losing a minute here makes it almost impossible for him to win by being the best climber while racing conservatively. But it remains the case that if he (a) is the best climber, (b) stays the best climber for three weeks and (c) uses every mountain stage to demonstrate that, he can still win.
 
This is not a remotely typical situation. He’s 140 seconds down in 11th place. Nibali is the only rider in the top 10 who has ever won a GT, but more importantly he’s the only rider in the top 10 who has ever been remotely close to winning a GT and he hasnt won one in four years and is about to turn 36.

Fuglsang hasn’t been remotely close either and he’s also old. So it was always likely that he would be unable to put three weeks together again. Losing a minute here makes it almost impossible for him to win by being the best climber while racing conservatively. But it remains the case that if he (a) is the best climber, (b) stays the best climber for three weeks and (c) uses every mountain stage to demonstrate that, he can still win.
Nibali finished 2nd and 3rd in 2017 and another 2nd in 2019 and crashed out the only other GT he tried to ride for GC, and his biggest losing margin was like 2 minutes. He is old but still class.
 
He needs an attack like the one from Froome some years ago - but a thing like that only happens once in a century.

How often does a rider who is outside the Top 10 halfway through a GT end up winning the whole contest? And if that same rider finished 100th in the first time trial?
If we argue that Nibali is the man to beat then the gap is 1:19.
If it is Keldermann 1:46.
And for the very unlikely scenario that it is Almeida - 2:20.

Pogacar's gap at the Tour was 1:25 to Roglic after stage 7 and 1:28 to Yates. He won by 0:59 over Roglic in the end, making up 2:24. More than all the gaps above. So, if he is indeed the strongest rider in week 3 it is still very much possible and we don't have to go back to Froome to prove this.
 
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Sagan's victory today was shades of Froome in 2018 - Sagan is a super,strong rider and one of the few in the peleton who can strongly compete in back to back GT's.
TBF for many years lots of sprinters didn't have trouble competing in back to back GTs (though frequently that would also be because they'd withdraw after 2 weeks and move onto the next one, which we aren't talking here, as well as there being less of a break between them). Well, he was struggling for form like anything second half of the Tour and people were talking about him being toast in the Giro as a result. And he's started it inconsistently, he was great in the stage Ulissi won, then had some iffy days of some stronger than others, then was really strong again today. He can also probably thank some of those iffy days for the fact the rest of the break were happy to battle with him, if he'd been at his best throughout the race, there's a much greater chance that the break inevitably peters out (no pun intended) because nobody wants to work with him (which was of course one of his biggest problems in the Classics for a lot of his career). Similar to how when there's a really dominant sprinter, other sprint teams don't help that team chase the break down as hard. He's got the versatility that he should be able to compensate for no longer being hilariously strong by racking up wins on strategy and smarts, as long as he's interested in prolonging his career. I mean, the day he hangs up the cleats is a day I'll cherish, sure, but so long as he wants to keep racing on the road, and he (and his fans) can accept that he has to pick and choose his battles a bit more as he grows older, he's still got plenty of days like this left in him.
 
Probably not, but I don’t think it’s certain. Riders can get old very suddenly and in recent times quite unexpected riders can be very strong. The last six GT winners were all first time winners.
Agree, nothing is certain. We'll find out more after the TT and Piancavallo, actually the first 2 important GT stages where there's no place to hide.
 
I am really liking this Giro ...would have preferred if JV and M S were still in it with a full team

But its a good race and has plenty of drama and is very unpredictable;

I prefer it to the Tour where most GC action was very limited and predictable
Though stage wins were good in the Tour but they are also in the Giro ...todays was as good as they get

A race doesn't need Pogacar or Roglic or indeed Richie Porte to be good...It needs evenly matched competitors with unique differences (handicaps) and some unpredictability and attacking which the Giro has

I find myself looking forward to the next stages and no one knows what going to happen

I hope it lasts

And cant stand all this elitist rubbish about the level of competition

We had the top GC guys at the Tour...we werent going to see the same again here and I for one dont need to in order to enjoy a race
 
It’s rare to see such a breakaway kept on a short leash then still end up with a victory at the end. This was the kind of display of strength and racecraft from so far out reserved for very few people in cycling. He was doing a great deal of work against some very motivated chasers then to have the legs to despatch the GC chasers handily at the end was something else, probably my favourite victory of his, at least even with the green/yellow flat breakaway in 2016, mainly because I didn’t think he had this sort of thing left in him.

He acts casual but did I detect the Kyrienka at the end? Put the sunglasses on to hide the tears? Certainly seemed emotional in the interview.
 
I copy one great comment from massages under the new CN article about today stage.

Peter wasn't attacking, he just trying to leave the race early.
It’s rare to see such a breakaway kept on a short leash then still end up with a victory at the end. This was the kind of display of strength and racecraft from so far out reserved for very few people in cycling. He was doing a great deal of work against some very motivated chasers then to have the legs to despatch the GC chasers handily at the end was something else, probably my favourite victory of his, at least even with the green/yellow flat breakaway in 2016, mainly because I didn’t think he had this sort of thing left in him.

He acts casual but did I detect the Kyrienka at the end? Put the sunglasses on to hide the tears? Certainly seemed emotional in the interview.
Thee
The same here. Stage 11/2016. My most favorite one.
100 hundred times re-watched final kilometers in YouTube. More than RVV, P-R, and WCRR wins together.
 
And cant stand all this elitist rubbish about the level of competition

We had the top GC guys at the Tour...we werent going to see the same again here and I for one dont need to in order to enjoy a race
I agree. There are three GT's within a couple of months this year, and the teams decide who is going to race in France, Italy and Spain - the best riders can't race in them all. To the TV viewer, I don't see how it can make much of a diffference. As I see it, the speed is equally high as in the Tour de France, and the stages are at least just as spectacular.
 

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