Giro d'Italia 2020, stage 10: Lanciano – Tortoreto 177 km

Time for one of them hyped hilly stages.

Stage 10: Lanciano – Tortoreto 177 km
Tuesday, October 13th, 11:55 CEST





Technical Overview:
Straight off the first rest day, the riders will face an awesome stage full of walls and tricky roads in the finale. The first GPM of the day comes after 45 km, possibly with the break of the day still forming. The wall of Chieti (GPM4, 1.8km at 7.8%), with its 1km long stretch at 11.5%, is a common sight at the Tirreno Adriatico, so most of the peloton should be familiar with it. From there the riders will head back to the coast, where they’ll stay for 60 km, all the way to the first intermediate sprint of Giulianova. At 60 km to go we reach Tortoreto, where the finish is supposed to be, but the route will take a long detour instead. First, the peloton will ride the GPM of Tortoreto (GPM4, 2.9 km at 7.3%), which is actually two steep walls connected by a short easier section. Its descent leads to another 10 km of flat along the coast to reach the town of Martinsicuro, where an impressive sequence of hills starts. The first one is also the hardest: Colonnella (GPM3, 3.1 km at 9.2%) is just a really tough climb that might do a lot of damage if the pace is high. The top is at 39 km to go, so not too long for attackers to seriously consider to try something. At the top there is a 5 km descending plateau, and then the road will go up again to the wall of Controguerra (900m at 9.7%), which instead of a GPM has the second intermediate sprint. This wall is much tougher than the average suggests, as it features a massive ramp of 250m at over 20% average. After the sprint (33 km to go) there is another descending false flat of 7 km which leads to a little climb of 3.5 km with mostly gentle slopes, having only one serious ramp at 8% in the last km. Another small descent will then bring the riders to yet another climb to Tortoreto (from a different road, 2.5 km at 7.1%). This uncategorized climb is quite irregular and hides another short 20% ramp in the middle. The top is at 18 km to go, and the following descent connects about halfway to the first climb of Tortoreto (GPM4, 1.8 km at 7.2%), so all that’s left is to climb the second wall of it, with max gradient 18%. From here only 11 km remain, 4 of which are a descent and the last 7 are flat and mostly straight along the coast.



The Climbs:
Chieti: GPM4, 1.8km at 7.8%

Used many times in Tirreno – Adriatico. Just short and very steep, with 1.1 km at 11.5% followed by a false flat. No official profile.

Tortoreto x2: GPM4, 2.9 km at 7.3%
This climb is divided into two ramps: the first one, that will be climbed only during the first passage, is 500m at 15.1%. The riders will enter the climb for the second passage just at the top of this ramp. After another km with gentle slopes, there is another steep ramp with very similar numbers to the first.


Colonnella: GPM3, 3.1 km at 9.2%
The hardest climb of this stage, it will be the perfect opener for the final sequence. It’s quite constant and does not offer any respite until the top.


Controguerra: 900m at 9.7%
Just a (really) steep wall. It is not categorized but we have an official profile, so I might as well add it.


Tortoreto (Via Badetta): 2.5 km at 7.1%
An irregular climb that hides very steep ramps along with lots of flattish sections, even a short descent near the top.


What to expect:
The stage suits pretty much any outcome, including a battle between the GC guys. It is possible to attack anywhere in the last 40 kms, and in any case a huge selection in the pack should be almost guaranteed. The last 7 flat kms might be a deterrent for the lighter guys, but still I don’t think they will be much of a factor.


Tortoreto Lido
 
I'd love for Fuglsang and Astana to go all out here but I don't really expect it. We just don't usually see all out gc racing on hilly stages even when the hills are as steep as they are here. I do see that after today some might want to eliminate Nibali on terrain that doesn't suit him, but usually it's really more the steep uphill sprints that hurt him, not steep hills in general.
 
I'd love for Fuglsang and Astana to go all out here but I don't really expect it. We just don't usually see all out gc racing on hilly stages even when the hills are as steep as they are here. I do see that after today some might want to eliminate Nibali on terrain that doesn't suit him, but usually it's really more the steep uphill sprints that hurt him, not steep hills in general.
The weird thing is Nibali tends to get better after a few repetitions. Like he can't do an uphill 3 minute effort at the end of a 10 minute climb but it's probably gonna be do a pretty good 5 minute effort if they just do it 8 times.

In Tirreno the gaps were quite small on the Murito stage, and in this case I think the hardest ones are quite far from the finish. It's gonna be nervous as ***
 
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What about the weather btw? I imagine a big part of that finale will take place on twisty and rather narrow roads, so one way this stage absolutely could explode is if the peloton splits on a wet descent with a gc contender caught up behind.
 
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If this was T-A I would expect a busy stage with lots of action and meaningful time gaps but with no team good enough to really put the hurt on I doubt there will be a big selection and the breakaway will win yet again.
 
Fuglsang should try to gain time on this stage and maybe Kelderman, too. This is where not having Lopez and Vlasov around really hurts for Astana.
I can't imagine significant gaps between the actual GC contenders tbh. I think there will still be domestiques in the chasing group who 'd reel them back in. It might be a wild goose chase with them burning energy, and guys like Nibali and Kruijswijk letting their doms do the work in the chase, and finish along with Fuglsang and Kelderman in that scenario. If they see a rival struggle on one of the first steep climbs, that could change things.
 
I can't imagine significant gaps between the actual GC contenders tbh. I think there will still be domestiques in the chasing group who 'd reel them back in. It might be a wild goose chase with them burning energy, and guys like Nibali and Kruijswijk letting their doms do the work in the chase, and finish along with Fuglsang and Kelderman in that scenario. If they see a rival struggle on one of the first steep climbs, that could change things.
I also don't expect significant gaps between the GC contenders. But if you can take 15s on Nibali and Kruijswijk you should try imo. The stage profile suggests there's hardly any meter of flat for more than 30km in that hilly section. That's LBL like, that's Fuglsang territory. Of course the distance is not quite the same and there's probably no team that can ride a fast enough tempo to get rid of enough domestiques to set up a strong attack. Astana can't. Maybe Sunweb and Bora could. The question is if they want to.
 
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I'd love for Fuglsang and Astana to go all out here but I don't really expect it. We just don't usually see all out gc racing on hilly stages even when the hills are as steep as they are here. I do see that after today some might want to eliminate Nibali on terrain that doesn't suit him, but usually it's really more the steep uphill sprints that hurt him, not steep hills in general.
Having lost Lopez and Vlasov early, I think Fuglsang is not going to do much.
Except for on the really big mountain stages, and the very end of intermediate stages, the strategy has shifted to riding a defensive race and conserving energy for the team.

I hope I am wrong of course ;)
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
well, it's not like Vlasov and Lopez would have made much of a difference on a stage like this, I think. Both lack the punch for these kind of climbs, Astana would basically need to have the Tour de France team around
 
Breakaway. Those climbs are Haig-climbs. I hope he can take the win.

But Sunweb needs to control the peloton for once. They have a good chance of winning this stage.

If Fuglsang and Kelderman decides to team up, I could see them out-punching the rest on one of the last climbs and stay together to the finish line.. but it seems very unlikely.

It's too hard for Sagan, but Michael Matthews is a good bet if Sunweb are doing some work up front. He can survive in surprisingly hard terrain.
 
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Jan 8, 2020
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What about the weather btw? I imagine a big part of that finale will take place on twisty and rather narrow roads, so one way this stage absolutely could explode is if the peloton splits on a wet descent with a gc contender caught up behind.
Thought the same but forecast looks good.

Probably too much to expect an ambush but the opportunity is there if someone's bold enough, great stage design.
 
It's too hard for Sagan, but Michael Matthews is a good bet if Sunweb are doing some work up front. He can survive in surprisingly hard terrain.
I don't know. What I've learnt in the past few years is that everything Matthews can do, Sagan does it better (except for time trialing). Even in this year's form. There were times when I was thinking surely Matthews is in better form so he'll beat Sagan in head to head situations but usually is the formet World Champion who comes out on top. I didn't look specifically at head to head results, just going by memory.

So I have a hard time saying that a race/stage which suits Matthews is too hard for Sagan.
 
well, it's not like Vlasov and Lopez would have made much of a difference on a stage like this, I think. Both lack the punch for these kind of climbs, Astana would basically need to have the Tour de France team around
They could have made more of a difference than those that remain.

But it's not about strength, it's about having a lieutenant placed well on GC, that you can use to put pressure on the other GC teams, which both Lopez and Vlasov would be able to, with the small differences that still exist on GC.

That is the only way a stage like tomorrow comes into play on GC.
 

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