Giro d'Italia 2020, stage 19: Morbegno › Asti (258k)

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For those interested in a bet, I feel strongly that the market is wrong on this one. It is priced as though it's highly likely to be a sprint finish, which I think is very unlikely. FDJ will get little or no assistance (why chase to give another win to Demare) and 258km in bad weather is too much for the 5 remaining FDJ domestiques. Also Demare leads Sagan in the points competition so FDJ may well be happy to let the break take the points rather than risk that something goes wrong with Demare and Sagan can close right up in the points comp.

It's a day to spec some really long odds riders. Preferably someone with a big engine on a day the weather could make pretty hard . Sobrero and Cerny two good options.

So yes, I agree it's a boring stage overall but at least the first and last half hour should be ok.
The more I'm thinking about it, esp. how tired they will be after today, and the crappy weather tomorrow, I think it might go into a break... Maybe Sagan can join in, too:p:p:p
 
I will be the minority and say I really like the nature of a 260k sprint stage between (the) two big mountain days.

Boo-hoo. Don't get to have a 3-hour TV binge? Read text updates to see who's in the break, when they get caught, and catch a final 3-km replay on youtube. I think it creates an interesting race dynamic.
 
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It's like when people are shocked that the first few hours of Worlds is boring. Like just because there's bike racing on TV doesn't mean you need to watch all of it lol.

They aren't likely to start broadcasting less than a hundred KM in or so, anyway, so I don't get what the point of complaining about the length is unless you're riding tomorrow.
 
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Demare. It's not like last year where Ackermann and Demare's teams were more concentrating on finishing their rider ahead of each other for the points jersey than they were on the stage win.
 
Demare. It's not like last year where Ackermann and Demare's teams were more concentrating on finishing their rider ahead of each other for the points jersey than they were on the stage win.
That day Demare and Ackermann both fancied their chances of winning the stage, had 16 domestiques between them, and still screwed it up.

Because Demare is so clearly the fastest rider this time he is less likely to get help - and FDJ has only 5 domestiques left which is not enough on a stage this long.

So who might help?

Bora for Sagan? Possible but unlikely given Konrad and Majka won't contribute and Fabbro is little use on the flat. They're better to put Benedetti in the break.

DQS for Hodeg? They will be exhausted from their recent efforts and Hodeg's poor form doesn't justify another big effort. They probably have no designs on the stage but if they do then Honore in the break is a better option.

The more I think about it the more certain I become that the break wins, and perhaps by 20 minutes or so.
 
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There will be rain, wind, and Nibali finally pulling something good out of his bag.
I wish this stage wasn't pan flat. Even a couple of cat 3s in the middle followed by 120kms of flat. Some terrain to spring an ambush.

Oh well, the wetter and windier the better. Has a chance to be an epic stage, overwhelming likelihood is a dull, 7 hour slog.
 
No crosswinds expected, I suppose?
In the plains of north Italy, where I live, strong wind is rare.

Only foehn from the northwesterns alps, and, rarely, scirocco from Adriatic Sea can be very strong.

Another source of wind here are sometimes the thunderstorm during summer, but the time of this
events is gone this year :)


However we are talking of 4-5 days per year
and today there are no forecast of these winds.
 
It's like when people are shocked that the first few hours of Worlds is boring. Like just because there's bike racing on TV doesn't mean you need to watch all of it lol.

They aren't likely to start broadcasting less than a hundred KM in or so, anyway, so I don't get what the point of complaining about the length is unless you're riding tomorrow.
But if even the likes of us don't watch it, why would they bdoadcast it? And if advertisers are not willing to support full length transmissions because of our response to days like this, will they appreciate the nuances of the sport enough to show full length of stages like yesterday?
 

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