Carapaz was obviously helped by the theatrics of Nibali and Roglic but I thought an organized Movistar rode that race well which was more unusual. Roglic had peaked too early as many suspected and also had a crash that may have effected him, Lopez had his usual issues. I still think Nibali would have had trouble dropping Carapaz who was in great form. It will be a bigger fail if he loses this race or at least doesn't finish in the top two. Two of his biggest rivals are gone already and he is up against who ? None of the others have won a grand tour, only SK has been close. Obviously he isn't prime Nibali and he hasn't won a grand tour since 2016. The TTs should be interesting as the mountain stages may not decide it and there isn't a dominant team.
His biggest hurdle in the third week could be aging legs. He will be 36 next month. that always counts in grand tours as the record books show.