Giro d'Italia 2020

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I think this will be Nibali's last chance to win a GT. Route is good and field is weak as ***, unfortunately.

No clue who will win though, feel like its super open.
Nibali is trying to convince me the last chance was 2019.

I'm not really sure how to rate the Tirreno from the other guys, but I don't quite agree with people treating Thomas like he was riding in the 2018 Dauphine, but Yates would normally be a nearly impossible nut to crack if he doesn't break down like 2018. Though I still think the decisive stages are more favorable for Nibs that a finish like Sassotetto or say Etna, that's not gonna turn the fortunes when Nibali is as bad as he is now.
 
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I suppose it's too soon for any of the Tour dropouts to be ready for this?

I didn't watch T-A, but I guess Yates is in decent form. Bookies have Thomas as favourite, but after his Tour prep disaster I want to see the first week before putting any money on.

Nibali and Kruijswijk (before injury) haven't looked amazing. They along with Thomas will never get a better chance to win a(nother) GT.
 
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Jul 2, 2020
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Ewan, Viviani, Sagan, Gaviria, Dèmare, Matthews are the top sprinters, then there are Cimolai, Mareczko, Halvorsen, Cavendish, Ballerini, Barbier, maybe Nizzolo...
 
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Ewan, Viviani, Sagan, Gaviria, Dèmare, Matthews are the top sprinters, then there are Cimolai, Mareczko, Halvorsen, Cavendish, Ballerini, Barbier, maybe Nizzolo...
a lot of suckers for punishment this year. So much climbing, so few sprint opportunities. I wonder will Ewan end up at the Vuelta instead, not that the Vuelta is particularly sprinter friendly either.
 
a lot of suckers for punishment this year. So much climbing, so few sprint opportunities. I wonder will Ewan end up at the Vuelta instead, not that the Vuelta is particularly sprinter friendly either.
There are 4 stages for sprinters at the Vuelta (stage 4, 10, 11 and Madrid), only one in the first week. Any other stage is 99% too tough for Ewan considering how he was climbing in the Tour. Stage 14 would probably be a sprint earlier in the race but I thik a late attack will take it in the third week.

I think the Giro is a bit more nuanced.
  • Stage 4 has a very long and gentle climb about 70 km from the finish and comes right after 3 relevant stages for the GC. If the sprinter teams are committed they definitely have a chance (stage 2 of the 2017 Giro had a similar climb 50 km before the finish and Greipel won).
  • Stage 7 is 100% a sprint
  • Stage 8 will be harder to control but most likely a sprint
  • Stage 11 is 100% a sprint
  • Stage 19 is 100% a sprint
So there's potential for 5 sprint stages and 3 of them are in the first week, you can go home earlier if you don't fancy the mountains.
Also, considering the current COVID-19 situation in Italy and Spain, the Giro is more likely to go through than the Vuelta.
 
Yes, no idea if the Vuelta actually takes place.
If it happens the weather will be really different, most of the race takes place in northern Spain and durning late October/early November we can expect Pais Vasco weather instead of the usual heat.
 
The tour is just over and in less then 2 weeks the giro will already start.

For GC I see Yates, Thomas, Kruiswijk, Nibali and perhaps Vlasov as the main contenders.
For the race dynamics it will be also important, if there will be a team who is able to control everything like Jumbo Visma did at the tour.
My hope it that this will not be the case.

Jumbo already announced their squad:
.. PFINGSTEN Christoph
.. FOSS Tobias
.. KRUIJSWIJK Steven
.. BOUWMAN Koen
.. MARTIN Tony
.. TOLHOEK Antwan
.. HARPER Chris
.. VAN EMDEN Jos

Don´t know how Jumbo Visma convinced Tony Martin to ride another 1000 km at the front.. ;)
 
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The tour is just over and in less then 2 weeks the giro will already start.

For GC I see Yates, Thomas, Kruiswijk, Nibali and perhaps Vlasov as the main contenders.
For the race dynamics it will be also important, if there will be a team who is able to control everything like Jumbo Visma did at the tour.
My hope it that this will not be the case.

Jumbo already announced their squad:
.. PFINGSTEN Christoph
.. FOSS Tobias
.. KRUIJSWIJK Steven
.. BOUWMAN Koen
.. MARTIN Tony
.. TOLHOEK Antwan
.. HARPER Chris
.. VAN EMDEN Jos

Don´t know how Jumbo Visma convinced Tony Martin to ride another 1000 km at the front.. ;)
Is it me or is that a very weak squad for locking up the mountains? Good to hear.
Steven will have to be very very on form to perform with that team (haven't seen every other lineup tho)
 
Is it me or is that a very weak squad for locking up the mountains? Good to hear.
Steven will have to be very very on form to perform with that team (haven't seen every other lineup tho)
Agree, Tolkhoek and Bouwman are on paper the last mountain domestiques for Kruiswijk with Foss a bit unpredicatable. So we will not see the same picture we saw the last three weeks.
 
There are 4 stages for sprinters at the Vuelta (stage 4, 10, 11 and Madrid), only one in the first week. Any other stage is 99% too tough for Ewan considering how he was climbing in the Tour. Stage 14 would probably be a sprint earlier in the race but I thik a late attack will take it in the third week.

I think the Giro is a bit more nuanced.
  • Stage 4 has a very long and gentle climb about 70 km from the finish and comes right after 3 relevant stages for the GC. If the sprinter teams are committed they definitely have a chance (stage 2 of the 2017 Giro had a similar climb 50 km before the finish and Greipel won).
  • Stage 7 is 100% a sprint
  • Stage 8 will be harder to control but most likely a sprint
  • Stage 11 is 100% a sprint
  • Stage 19 is 100% a sprint
So there's potential for 5 sprint stages and 3 of them are in the first week, you can go home earlier if you don't fancy the mountains.
Also, considering the current COVID-19 situation in Italy and Spain, the Giro is more likely to go through than the Vuelta.
thanks for the analysis. I suppose I’m still thinking a bit too much of this Tour in that I look at stage 4 and stage 8 and think that there might be sprints but if there are Ewan will be minutes back down the road. Of course he will have a couple of easy weeks first to recover, there won’t be teams going full bananas for a points jersey and in general things won’t be raced with the same level and intensity as the Tour. So it’s not as obvious that Ewan and various “strictly no climbing please I’m 80 kg” type sprinters will be dropped.

On the other hand, if I’m a DS for a team with serious sprint hopes and I’ve been watching the Tour, my priority number two, after ensuring that there is a sprint on those stages, is burying Ewan before that sprint. The only guy in that lineup who has any right to fancy his chances against him in a normal big bunch sprint is Gaviria, and that’s only if Gaviria is back to his best. The rest are in the it has to be messy for them to win category.
 
Agree, Tolkhoek and Bouwman are on paper the last mountain domestiques for Kruiswijk with Foss a bit unpredicatable. So we will not see the same picture we saw the last three weeks.
it looks to me like Ineos will in theory have the strongest mountain support, but it will also be much flimsier than previous incarnations of the train. Dunbar is coming back from a broken collar bone, Geoghegan Hart’s level is unpredictable. TJV don’t look like a “train” team, but they may still try it. As far as Mitchelton Scott are concerned, Yates just needs one guy who can stick with him till late in case something goes wrong, but he’s certainly not going to be trying to keep things super orderly and the team isn’t equipped for it anyway. Nibali also unlikely to be riding a train.

so yeah, we could be seeing an unusually Mano a Mano style GT for our current period, with no one team leader surrounded by minions late on.
 
it looks to me like Ineos will in theory have the strongest mountain support, but it will also be much flimsier than previous incarnations of the train. Dunbar is coming back from a broken collar bone, Geoghegan Hart’s level is unpredictable. TJV don’t look like a “train” team, but they may still try it. As far as Mitchelton Scott are concerned, Yates just needs one guy who can stick with him till late in case something goes wrong, but he’s certainly not going to be trying to keep things super orderly and the team isn’t equipped for it anyway. Nibali also unlikely to be riding a train.

so yeah, we could be seeing an unusually Mano a Mano style GT for our current period, with no one team leader surrounded by minions late on.
Jep, my status is that the giro team of Ineos is still not fixed yet. A few days ago I read an article here that Bernal will perhaps ride also the giro. This could have a big influence for the whole dynamic of the race..
 
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Mitchelton Scott will have a strong team - Mountain support from Haig and Hamilton - Hepburn and Affini to ride the flats - Bookwalter and Meyer to ride hillier parts - Zeits would have been in the team but he's disappeared off the face of the earth since the COVID lockdown.
 

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