Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia 2025 Stage 17: San Michele all’Adige – Bormio, 155 km

[dobrien]

There's a lot of talk about Finestre, but little about Friday's stage.
The Finestre stage will also depend on how hard Friday's stage is.
Or do you think the riders will be conservative with Finestre in mind?

I don't think Friday is going to be raced conservatively, at least not to start. We have in front of us something looking more like a bunch of hungry dogs thrown into a pit, instead of an actual bike race. Certainly we could have something looking like a stalemate if after probing attacks everyone seems about on the same level, but I'm just not seeing it. For sure Carapaz, if he smells the slightest weakness will take every opportunity to stick the knife in, or if Gee is feeling great, perhaps he doesn't want to leave it all to Finestre and attacks with Pellizzari? Lots of scenarios possible, my point simply being, this race is WAY too up in the air for this bunch to leave Friday on the table. Just not seeing it.

 

[Extinction]

I do think most will try to be conservative, but I also think Friday is going to expose some tired legs. It's a lot of repeated climbs.

Friday is a case if anyone shows weakness, then rivals will have to go full gas to take advantage and not think about Finestre. There is simply no time for measured calculations. It's not the first or second week.

 

[Brullnux]

According to what? A bad day (as was pointed on TV) after the rest day?

I have switched back and forth between Del Toro and Carapaz over the last week, and while I would put Carapaz as the favorite, we really don’t have a clue how Del Toro will respond yet.

A lot of these prognostications on here read like a bunch of folks huffing hopium.

All we know is that the last time Del Toro rode the big mountains was the 2023 Tour de Avenir stage that finished on the Col de Loze (a monster climb).

He won that stage ahead of Riccitello and putting 1:14 into 2025 forum climbing hero/revelation… Gino Pellizari.

That’s all we have to go on besides a bad day yesterday.

He also got gapped by Zana on Covadongas last year.

It's besides the point, but so is the Avenir. I think it's worth remembering that today Del Toro also got dropped on the longest/hardest climb of the day while still being the best on La Motte. He defended very well over the Mortirolo, but if he'd had the legs to follow Carapaz he would've, and he didn't. So even today, a day in which he was clearly strong, he didn't look quite at the level of Carapaz on the day's hardest climb. I don't think it's hopium to think that this is a pattern.

Of course, lads, it's Carapaz, he might self-immolate this weekend, so nothing is guaranteed.

 

[Cycling111]

Friday is a case if anyone shows weakness, then rivals will have to go full gas to take advantage and not think about Finestre. There is simply no time for measured calculations. It's not the first or second week.

I think the same. Everyone thinks Carapaz can win the Giro in Finestre.
Finestre is very hard, but it's the only hard climb before Sestriere.
If del Toro holds on, he might not lose that much.
Del Toro struggled on a stage with four climbs. There are three first-category climbs on Friday.

Aside from the Giro victory, anyone who wants to reach the podium will have to try both days; they don't have time.

 

[Extinction]

I think the same. Everyone thinks Carapaz can win the Giro in Finestre.
Finestre is very hard, but it's the only hard climb before Sestriere.
If del Toro holds on, he might not lose that much.
Del Toro struggled on a stage with four climbs. There are three first-category climbs on Friday.

Aside from the Giro victory, anyone who wants to reach the podium will have to try both days; they don't have time.

Exactly, but in the third week you either show you can handle the attrition or fade away. It's not about absolute strength, but balance of power or how much is left in the tank. And with Del Toro we are naturally in the dark here. At any rate, curious eyes shall be watching.

 

[Red Rick]

Why look at WT results of the past 2 years when you can look at Tour de l'Avenir where stages are 100km and nothing makes sense.

 

[red_flanders]

...

He defended very well over the Mortirolo, but if he'd had the legs to follow Carapaz he would've, and he didn't. So even today, a day in which he was clearly strong, he didn't look quite at the level of Carapaz on the day's hardest climb. I don't think it's hopium to think that this is a pattern.

I think this is a really good point, but also think some of the discussion around Del Toro gets a little wonky as some folks may be referring to his potential as a GT racer, while others may be referring to who he is right now.

Maybe there's a bit of that in this discussion? I agree it looks like a pattern for him now, yes. But I don't have enough data on the guy to have much confidence in that assessment, and I don't think it's going to be a pattern for him in the future. Or rather I'd be a bit surprised, given what he's showing now.

 

[Red Rick]

He also got gapped by Zana on Covadongas last year.

It's besides the point, but so is the Avenir. I think it's worth remembering that today Del Toro also got dropped on the longest/hardest climb of the day while still being the best on La Motte. He defended very well over the Mortirolo, but if he'd had the legs to follow Carapaz he would've, and he didn't. So even today, a day in which he was clearly strong, he didn't look quite at the level of Carapaz on the day's hardest climb. I don't think it's hopium to think that this is a pattern.

Of course, lads, it's Carapaz, he might self-immolate this weekend, so nothing is guaranteed.

Mortirolo itself was paced pretty slowly until basically the final 2.5km, and it had a short recovery section before they hit the steep bit. I don't think it bodes well that he was struggling to follow Simon Yates on the steep section.

Realistically, he looked like 8th strongest on the Mortirolo, which would be consistent with yesterday. After that there's a descent and a long false flat to recover. Even Le Motte wasn't paced hard, and Del Toro rode away more on anaerobic ability than aerobic ability.

 

[Brullnux]

I think this is a really good point, but also think some of the discussion around Del Toro gets a little wonky as some folks may be referring to his potential as a GT racer, while others may be referring to who he is right now.

Maybe there's a bit of that in this discussion? I agree it looks like a pattern for him now, yes. But I don't have enough data on the guy to have much confidence in that assessment, and I don't think it's going to be a pattern for him in the future. Or rather I'd be a bit surprised, given what he's showing now.

I have zero faith in my ability to make long term predictions, but I do think until now Del Toro hasn't impressed me on longer climbs but has looked really, really good (best in the race) on shorter efforts.

 

[red_flanders]

I have zero faith in my ability to make long term predictions, but I do think until now Del Toro hasn't impressed me on longer climbs but has looked really, really good (best in the race) on shorter efforts.

I think the only question is whether that's a "he's just 21" thing, or it's a "that's where his limits are" thing.

 

[perico]

Why look at WT results of the past 2 years when you can look at Tour de l'Avenir where stages are 100km and nothing makes sense.

Because we have no data other than Monday to base it on other than a GT at 20 years old which he wasn’t riding in contention.

So neither idea makes perfect sense, but nobody here has a clue how this kid will respond or the factors that caused him to lose time. Not all of us are passive aggressive enough to indirectly quote someone.

My point was that we don’t know and can cherry pick anything at this point in his career. He could have had dead legs after the rest day. We just don’t know, and it would be a lot more honest for people to admit that they don’t have a clue what to expect from the kid instead of making sweeping proclamations about anything.

 

[Sciatic]

The problem is that the strongest climbers get hindered. This race has literally 1 proper MTF (Stage 16) and one puncheur's finish (Stage 7). With a proper route this race would have been much better.

Could you say that several more times—I’m not sure have heard it enough?

 

[red_flanders]

Finally got a chance to watch the stage undistracted–was half watching it before work today. Wow! Really fun. I hope Carapaz and Del Toro attack one another to the last, the back and forth today was super fun to watch. Don't care much who wins, just hope it's close to the last.

And again, I think the course design is nudging riders toward some attacking riding, and as a fan of classics and attacking versus trains dominating in GTs, this course with it's smaller potential for differences, makes for more entertainment (than usual) to my view. It's not the most spectacular, and it's not the most beautiful course, but the racing has been close and exciting.

Those two dudes are stylish, attacking riders, and the Matador move at the line was top-notch stuff. Great stage.

 

[veganrob]

Maybe he wont win this Giro but del Toro will be winning many GTs after all these guys have retired
It is hard to beleive this is his first GT

Shows a lot of poise for being the first time in this position under lot of pressure.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Great Del Toro! Defending the pink like it should be. The gap is quite small and it will be very difficult to hold it against Carapaz on stages 19-20 but I'm hoping the youngster will fight well.

 

[KOM]

I personally don’t care for a bunch of downhill finishes. I’ve seen enough tragedies over the past decade in this sport and it could literally happen to anyone with one ill timed tire exploding. More descent finishes just increases the odds of it happening again.

With that sort of argument you could make a case to ban almost anything, highways for example

 

[Squire]

Finally got a chance to watch the stage undistracted–was half watching it before work today. Wow! Really fun. I hope Carapaz and Del Toro attack one another to the last, the back and forth today was super fun to watch. Don't care much who wins, just hope it's close to the last.

And again, I think the course design is nudging riders toward some attacking riding, and as a fan of classics and attacking versus trains dominating in GTs, this course with it's smaller potential for differences, makes for more entertainment (than usual) to my view. It's not the most spectacular, and it's not the most beautiful course, but the racing has been close and exciting.

Those two dudes are stylish, attacking riders, and the Matador move at the line was top-notch stuff. Great stage.

Agreed that the two main protagonists are really likeable. But I'm definitely rooting for Carapaz. He deserves a final GT win for all the entertainment he has served up over the years.

As for the route, I'm also not as doomy and gloomy about the 'main climb far from finish' concept as many others. It does make it less formulaic and can potentially lead to some interesting tactical racing. And a bunch of shootouts on some hard final climb does get a bit repetitive. But the success of a route like the 2025 Giro is also really dependent on the riders/teams and the race situation. A Team Sky or a super strong UAE would have just locked this race down and it would have been dreadful. And I also think there could have been a lot more difficulties spread across the first and second weeks instead of having it all in the third.

 

[red_flanders]

Agreed that the two main protagonists are really likeable. But I'm definitely rooting for Carapaz. He deserves a final GT win for all the entertainment he has served up over the years.

As for the route, I'm also not as doomy and gloomy about the 'main climb far from finish' concept as many others. It does make it less formulaic and can potentially lead to some interesting tactical racing. And a bunch of shootouts on some hard final climb does get a bit repetitive. But the success of a route like the 2025 Giro is also really dependent on the riders/teams and the race situation. A Team Sky or a super strong UAE would have just locked this race down and it would have been dreadful. And I also think there could have been a lot more difficulties spread across the first and second weeks instead of having it all in the third.

All true, and also true that a team Sky locked down just about every course and pounded it into boredom.