Actually, I believe Del Toro would have won the race. Yes, I know everything—and I mean everything—went Simon’s way: EF and UAE refusing to control the break, UAE not sending anyone up the road like Visma did, and EF going absolutely bananas at the base of an 18 km, 9% climb—that was always a baffling move. Then there's Carapaz launching attacks (which is his style, but on Stage 16 he was more calculated), and Del Toro refusing to take even a single pull during the climb—seriously? I get that it’s his strategy, but no one in their right mind should have let Simon go that easily. And worst of all, not taking a single pull from the top of Finestre to Sestriere—on terrain that suited him perfectly—was incredibly frustrating. The least he could’ve done was help Carapaz, regardless of Wout being up the road. If you're racing to win, you don’t just give up. You can’t. What are they supposed to say—“Wout’s ahead, we’ve lost, so we’re just going to sit up”? Come on. That’s not how true contenders race.
Everything unfolded like a script for Simon. It begs the question: if even one of these things hadn’t gone his way, who would’ve won? In my opinion, it’s Del Toro.
Some podcasters mentioned Simon was on his greatest day. Fair enough. But you can’t tell me with certainty that if Del Toro had contributed just a bit—helped once or twice during those attacks—they wouldn’t have reeled Simon in. That might’ve broken his spirit. People say Del Toro was at his limit, but two minutes later, he’s shutting down every Carapaz move. I’m not saying his approach was completely wrong, but I don’t buy for a second that he was on the limit—not then, and not on the descent either. Come one man, you have to at least make a couple of pulls.
That’s just my take. Honestly, it sometimes feels like UAE relies purely on brute force. Pogacar can afford tactical mistakes simply because he’s so overwhelmingly strong.
All that said—chapeau to Simon and to Visma. At least they had a plan and executed it to perfection. That was incredible. Real cinema.
Just my two cents.