Giro d'Italia Stage 11: Lucera - L'Aquila (262km)

Having reached its southernmost point of this year's race during today's stage, the Giro turns north, which to fans of bears the promise of the Dolomites and Verona. But that is for another day, since tomorrow's stage is daunting enough in its own right.

At 262km it is by a wide margin the longest stage of this year's Giro, and with almost 4km of climbing, will certainly be yet another taxing day at the office for the peloton. The break will have to comprise many hardy men to survive a day like this; and my guess is that a break won't make it unless all big teams are represented. The climbing will thin the peloton out significantly. Since the toughest climbing is some distance from the finish line I doubt gaps between the GC men will be large, but certainly the Italians will still be motivated to use the small bumps just before the finish to try and go for victory. For symbolic reasons discussed below I would hope Pozzato manages to get the victory here, but I fear the stage will be too taxing for him. Therefore I'll pick Scarponi to power away out of a select grouping and take the victory for himself and Italy as well.

The stage travels from the site of one historic tragedy to a recent one. Lucera once represented the last stronghold of medieval Islamic Italy. After a century of campaign and forced relocations to Lucera, by 1300 its population had swelled to almost 20'000 Muslims. A 'Christian' army under the command of the King of Naples and Sicily sacked the prosperous city, forcibly converting many to Christianity and expelling the rest. It ended over four centuries of Islamic influence over Southern Italy.

The recent tragedy is centered around L'Aquila in the Abruzzo, where the same plate tectonics that produced the spectacular Apennines which surround the city caused an earthquake in the early hours of the morning of April 6 last year. The earthquake wreaked havoc on the many old and medieval buildings which comprised the picturesque city. On that April morning 308 people lost their lives. This stage is dedicated to their memory.








 
Mar 11, 2009
5,841
3
0
I think Cunego and Pozzato will both be motivated to try something, but the way Evans and Vino are riding either of them could take it too.
 
Apr 21, 2010
93
0
0
I'll go with Garzelli, Gadret, Cunego, Scarponi or Pozzovivo for the win.

little off-topic question:

who out of these riders do you think will get the best stage results tomorrow and in the last week:

Tondo
Didier
Kiserlovski
Dupont
arroyo
 
Aug 18, 2009
4,993
1
0
Luke Roberts to win from a break containing Thomas Voeckler and Vasil Kiryienka. And David Millar, seeing as the GC game's up. And Michael Albasini. Big dudes mark each other and cross the line together.

[edit] Matt Lloyd in the break too.
 
May 13, 2009
3,093
2
0
That's an interesting profile. Since it's such a long stage, we might see attempts of GC man to profit from the last two molehills. In particular if the tempo is kept high.
 
Apr 21, 2010
93
0
0
little off-topic question:

who out of these riders do you think will get the best stage results tomorrow and in the last week:

Tondo
Didier
Kiserlovski
Dupont
Arroyo
Moncoutié
 
Aug 18, 2009
4,993
1
0
Cobblestones said:
That's an interesting profile. Since it's such a long stage, we might see attempts of GC man to profit from the last two molehills. In particular if the tempo is kept high.
Vino would seem to agree.
Vino said:
Tomorrow will be very different. It's like a classic. People say the terrain gives me the opportunity to attack but I think it's more up to the other riders to attack me.
 
Looking forward to this stage and hoping for Cunego.

Tornadin said:
ittle off-topic question:

who out of these riders do you think will get the best stage results tomorrow and in the last week:

Tondo
Didier
Kiserlovski
Dupont
Arroyo
Moncoutié
Arroyo. I think his form is good judging by stage 7.
 
Jan 11, 2010
12,582
0
0
Tornadin said:
little off-topic question:

who out of these riders do you think will get the best stage results tomorrow and in the last week:

Tondo
Didier
Kiserlovski
Dupont
Arroyo
Moncoutié
Tondo. Not Didier, that's for sure.
 
I think tomorrow will be really entertaining.

I'm not quite sure whether a break can make it to the finish. Therefore I'm going with Scarponi for the win. Cunego is certainly a contender for sure and so is Vinokourov and, especially, Evans.
 
Apr 21, 2010
93
0
0
theyoungest said:
Tondo. Not Didier, that's for sure.
Thank you guys, I think I'm gonna go with Tondo, cause he's cheaper than Arroyo.

Another question:

who do you think will get the better result:

Tondo tomorrow or William Bonnet on stage 12 ?
 
Tornadin said:
Thank you guys, I think I'm gonna go with Tondo, cause he's cheaper than Arroyo.

Another question:

who do you think will get the better result:

Tondo tomorrow or William Bonnet on stage 12 ?
Tricky.... I'd edge towards Tondo. While Tondo doesn't have a great sprint, he's still some ways down, so if he attacks late (like 2 days ago) he might get some room. Stage 12 is gonna be a mad dash for the sprint since it'll be the last chance many have before pulling out... The bump in the road 10km before the finish will suit Bonnet though....

It's really close but I'd pick Tondo if you're getting the better odds with him. If the odds on Tondo are short I'd say it's not worth your money.

DISCLAIMER: If any money is lost on my account I will disavow any knowledge of having made this suggestion. :p
 
Apr 21, 2010
93
0
0
Moondance said:
Tricky.... I'd edge towards Tondo. While Tondo doesn't have a great sprint, he's still some ways down, so if he attacks late (like 2 days ago) he might get some room. Stage 12 is gonna be a mad dash for the sprint since it'll be the last chance many have before pulling out... The bump in the road 10km before the finish will suit Bonnet though....

It's really close but I'd pick Tondo if you're getting the better odds with him. If the odds on Tondo are short I'd say it's not worth your money.

DISCLAIMER: If any money is lost on my account I will disavow any knowledge of having made this suggestion. :p
don't worry, I'm not betting, just fantasy gaming^^

thanks for the advice^^

It's not about odds, it's about points.

I'll switch bonnet who is in my team right now for Tondo, the question is when?

the top 20 drivers of each stage get points, the winner 50, the 20th 5
 
Mar 18, 2009
775
0
0
My guess is that despite his denials, Vino is going to try something tomorrow. The stage is like a classic which suits both him and his team, and with the mountains coming up he knows he needs to put more time between himself and Evans. If Astana drives the pace it won't be hard to isolate Evans, and then Vino can attack and attack. I think it's going to be an exciting stage.

I'd love to see Cunego win it.
 
Tondo........uuumm, now there's a thought.

Cuddles, Vino and Damiano is a 3 way LBLia showdown?
Garzelli and Scarponi in the mix too, maybe.
Has to be that day of slaughter that the Giro always has hidden in mid-race....

........or a breakaway to stayaway? No idea.
I like being like Polish................clueless!:D
 
Apr 26, 2010
1,035
0
0
Wallace said:
My guess is that despite his denials, Vino is going to try something tomorrow. The stage is like a classic which suits both him and his team, and with the mountains coming up he knows he needs to put more time between himself and Evans. If Astana drives the pace it won't be hard to isolate Evans, and then Vino can attack and attack. I think it's going to be an exciting stage.
Watching three consecutive stages of Evans shadowing Alexandre like he's domestique of his, i don't really see how you can isolate Evans unless you start to push him away.
________
Glass Bubblers
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY