Giro d'Italia Stage 15: Mestre - Monte Zoncolan (222km)

[Moondance]

Here it is. The toughest stage of the Giro. A mountain top finish to the toughest climb in Europe. With three categorized climbs (a bit of uncategorized climbing too) legs will be aching already when the riders reach the base of the climb. With the long awaited (by the riders) rest day coming up after tomorrow's stage, I hope that the GC favorites will throw all caution to the wind. Liquigas rode aggressively throughout the finale today, and I hope it continues. After Nibali's attack on stage 14, I expect the Liqui mountain train to get its groove on again, and deliver a stage win (and only the second victory since his comeback) for Ivan Basso.

 

[Jamsque]

Getting a bit previous aren't we?

 

[Moondance]

Getting a bit previous aren't we?

I have somewhere to go right now.... Am already stalling to see Nibali win. Had to write it up in advance.

I hope you can forgive me.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Basso or evans ftw.

 

[eljimberino]

Basso or evans ftw.

I'm not sure Evans can hang in there after watching him climb today. May be the sickness rumours are true.

I think Sastre will be targetting this one. For some months too.

Most important though, how much time will Arroyo lose?

 

[python]

nibali and basso.

scarponi and evans will lose a minute.

vino will lose 2 minutes.

 

[al_pacino]

Sastre to go on the climb before the Zoncolan maybe.

 

[MadPain]

I think Basso will do pretty good, he looked relaxed while being dragged along the last 20 kms today while Nibali, Evans and Vino did their little ITT ... so guess he was able to safe some energy

 

[kjetilraknerud]

This will be fantastic. GC is still wide open, and anything could happen. Liquigas is by far the strongest team, Szmyd will put the hammer down on the Zoncolan and break the peloton apart. The lesser climbers; Porte, Kiserlovski, Pinotti, Gerdemann etc. managed to hang on today to a certain degree, but tomorrow they'll suffer. Sastre, on the other hand, could be back to his best - he is quite unpredictable.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I'm not sure Evans can hang in there after watching him climb today. May be the sickness rumours are true.

I think Sastre will be targeting this one. For some months too.

Most important though, how much time will Arroyo lose?

hopefully he can get over it. he didn't look good all day but did very well to stick in there.

 

[The Sheep]

Wonder who will be battling for white as well should be clear who can get it after this stage.

 

[BroDeal]

Simoni is saving everything for one stage. This could be the one.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

^ shame mollema missed the break on the L'Aquila stage.

---

I say Basso wins this. Looking strong.
I also think sastre might be better tomorrow.

 

[DenisMenchov]

I think that apeloton will break before ZOncolan. Becasue you can`t expect Arroyo will lose 6 minutes on ONE climb., But on consecutive climbs yes. Maybe we will see Mollema, Karpets or some other guy that trails a lot in GC in the breakaway. But one thing is sure it will be exacting to wach. Can`t wait.

 

[DenisMenchov]

^ shame mollema missed the break on the L'Aquila stage.

---

I say Basso wins this. Looking strong.
I also think sastre might be better tomorrow.

Yes he could have fought for the win, and surely win white jersey. But now I`m really sad to see him climbing so good in vain.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Yes he could have fought for the win, and surely win white jersey. But now I`m really sad to see him climbing so good in vain.

Meh, he was never gonna win the giro.
WHite jersey, I agree he would have won.

However I don't think it's in vain. This is a great learning experience for him. Give him a couple more seasons, and he could seriously challenge at a GT.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Meh, he was never gonna win the giro.
WHite jersey, I agree he would have won.

However I don't think it's in vain. This is a great learning experience for him. Give him a couple more seasons, and he could seriously challenge at a GT.

Ofcourse he was nevver gonna win, but I`m sure that you would say that for Arroyo at the bigging of the Giro. And Rabo can be very very strong in years to come with Mollema and Gesink.

 

[xmoonx]

wow! what a race, and to think the hard part just started...
Basso, Nibali tomorrow. Ideal for Sastre, but unless he's feeling really, really good, he wont go. He only has to keep things in check...
I hope not, yet i think Vino may be sick and read maybe Evans too...

 

[BroDeal]

wow! what a race, and to think the hard part just started...
Basso, Nibali tomorrow. Ideal for Sastre, but unless he's feeling really, really good, he wont go. He only has to keep things in check...
I hope not, yet i think Vino may be sick and read maybe Evans too...

I think Vino is tired after the first two weeks. He burned a lot of energy. The rest day should really help both Vino and Evans.

 

[Frosty]

A prestigious stage and one that a lot of climbers will be extra keen to win. Might be able to guess who these will be by looking in the results for anyone finishing well below where they should do. I think both Moncoutie and Simoni will be up for getting in the break. Of the GC guys...

Basso
Nibali
Scarponi
Sastre
Evans

Arroyo to finish 4:30 back and to do enough to keep the jersey through the rest day. Tondo could threaten this though but i dont think he will pull back over 2 minutes.


I think Liquigas will start really pushing on the third last climb which is 10% for 4km and then try and keep the pace high thereafter. The break must need a lot of time tomorrow - for their sake they must be hoping that the break gets away early and the peloton just take it easy until the first of the big climbs at 132km

 

[ttrider]

interesting observations about what comes before the Zoncolan does anyone think they will try and drop a favorite before the main climb itself, i would actually say that the team is no disadvantage tomorrow for evans etc drafting will have a minimal effect the Zoncolan is every man for himself. Really not sure on the victor get the feeling basso cant do it but i dont see anyone better than him as nibali is so tired after today

 

[zapata]

fingers crossed for gilberto simoni.

 

[taiwan]

Wow it's get off and push material! Surprised at the amount of people liking Basso for this stage. it's also a bit crazy to think how hard everyone's been riding until now: pretty much only one stage where they just let the break go.

Wondering now if people were taking it easier today with this in mind, but I didn't actually see the stage. I half suspect Garzelli has something up his sleeve with that big time loss. Half.

This is relevant:the result of the 2007 Giro stage featuring the Zoncolan.
In fact, I'll say Garzelli for the win then Serpa (providing he's not staying with Scarponi). Nibali or Cunego to bring the favourites in.

 

[trompe le monde]

Gazzetta have updated their full general classification. Sometimes they can be a bit slow with the updates, but I suppose with an Italian winning a third consecutive stage maybe the webmaster is a bit more excited.

Fun facts:

-Vinokourov is the new Maglia Rossa.
-BMC and Lampre are at the bottom of the Fair Play category.

It's odd to think of Caisse as not being a major protagonist at a GC, and yet tomorrow they will have the Maglia Rosa and it was to some extent unexpected. Strange thing is if that Arroyo cracks and Gerdemann manages to limit his losses, he might be the new Maglia Rosa torso model after tomorrow. How unexpected would that be?

I half expect Kiserlovski to take the Maglia Bianca from Porte after tomorrow. Partially because Liquigas is a meatgrinder on wheels when the roads start to point up and also because Sørensen must be exhausted shepherding Porte over the Monte Grappa today. Who can pace him tomorrow?

Go Sastre!

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Kiserlovski will have to limit time losses on Mollema though, already lost '2 today and that's mainly due to the downhill where he won back time in a big group.

Tomorrow Kiserslovski might lose way more