Giro d'Italia Stage 15: Mestre - Monte Zoncolan (222km)

[trompe le monde]

Kiserlovski will have to limit time losses on Mollema though, already lost '2 today and that's mainly due to the downhill where he won back time in a big group.

Tomorrow Kiserslovski might lose way more

Sure, it's possible. But for Mollema to be in the White Jersey after the assent of the Zoncolan he would have to make up over 11 and a half minutes. Again, possible, though I can't comment definitively because I don't know much about Kiserlovski. Still, 11'30 is a lot of time to make up in one stage. Maybe after the Plan De Corones TT Mollema will be in white.

 

[maltiv]

I think Sastre used less energy today than for example Vinokourov and Nibali, so hopefully he will be fresher tomorrow and might be up there. Vino will crack for sure.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Sure, it's possible. But for Mollema to be in the White Jersey after the assent of the Zoncolan he would have to make up over 11 and a half minutes. Again, possible, though I can't comment definitively because I don't know much about Kiserlovski. Still, 11'30 is a lot of time to make up in one stage. Maybe after the Plan De Corones TT Mollema will be in white.

Not in 1 stage, but with Zoncolan, Kronplatz, Mortirolo and Gavia to come..11 minutes is not so much

 

[Gregory]

Simoni is saving everything for one stage. This could be the one.

Good observation. He was deliberately losing time from the beginning, coming to finish with the autobus, losing as little energy as possible. It's worth noticing that on last stage, he came higher than usually, which may be an indication that his form is not that bad. He will definitely try - he will certainly be in an escape. If the escape doesn't get caught, I say he has a very good chance of taking it. It all depends on the pace setting behind. If Liquigas sets tempo on all climbs, than the escape may not make it. If on the other hand Liquigas will allow the leader's team to do that, and will start working on the last climb, than escape will surely make it.

 

[Barrus]

Good observation. He was deliberately losing time from the beginning, coming to finish with the autobus, losing as little energy as possible. It's worth noticing that on last stage, he came higher than usually, which may be an indication that his form is not that bad. He will definitely try - he will certainly be in an escape. If the escape doesn't get caught, I say he has a very good chance of taking it. It all depends on the pace setting behind. If Liquigas sets tempo on all climbs, than the escape may not make it. If on the other hand Liquigas will allow the leader's team to do that, and will start working on the last climb, than escape will surely make it.

I hope they do him this one honour, to let him win this, it would truly be the best manner for him to close his career. Although realistically I think this won't happen. Probably something unexpected will happen once again, but what will it be this time? Mollema winning?

Allright, completely realistic I think Basso will have a good shot at this, he makes a very good impression, especially compared to most of the other climbers, I just hope he and Liquigas as a whole didn't spend too much energy today

 

[the vagabond]

Basso the fav. Arroyo should stay in pink. Besides Arroyo, one or two of the newbie contenders will ride super-well and become a true favorite for the overall along with, probably, Basso. Not sure who, but at least one other besides Wiggins or Sastre. I like Evans, but I am afraid both he and Vino will lose just enough time (or not make up any significant time on the overall) to be effectively be out of it. Both will be lucky to stay with Nibali.

 

[dgodave]

Hopefully there will be a nice palazzo or two, or a cute mountain town.
.

 

[Mellow Velo]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think Gibo can live with the full race pace anymore.
FWIW, I think if Sastre really is interested in winning this Giro, he'll show his full hand tomorrow.
Even for him, the mighty Z may be too steep.
Unless that was a little bluff, today, Cuddles won't be able to hold whoever's wheel he decides to latch onto.

 

[Nicoper]

Vai Gibo

But I fear that tomorrows stage will be to fast for escape. Liquigas will do everything to make lives difficult for all those who sneaked into GC in front of Basso and Nibali. They will be driving long and hard. I am expecting group of 10 in the foot of the final climb.
How I hope I am wrong.....

 

[ttrider]

10 on the final climb would be truly awesome, with Smyd Agnoli Kiserlovski they may have 3 mountain domestiques capable of that which would certainly make massive time gaps

 

[Zoncolan]

I'd love to see Gibo win, but to me he looks like he's carrying a little extra weight compared to previous years. That coupled with his age = no win on the Zoncolan. Especially with Liquigas riding the way they have today.
Basso is starting to show glimpses of his old form, he might win the stage.
We'll see tomorrow what kind of form Sastre is really on.
If the Liquigas domestiques start to pile it on on one of the climbs that precede Zoncolan, Vino should lose 2 minutes +, also Evans should lose time.
Arroyo still in pink after tomorrow, but with a much smaller gap.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Agree with everyone! I'd love to see Gibo win, but I think the cards will have to fall just right. If he does happen to be with the leaders in the last 100m, they may honor him with the stage. Maybe. He'd certainly be given the favorable position in the last 1k or so. If someone wheelsucks and goes around him to win it, they may never ride in Italy again!

I think Arroyo will hang for a while, but if there are a lot of attacks and splits on the earlier climbs, he could lose a few minutes. But wearing that jersey makes one a better rider, and I think he will show well.

Basso and Sastre stayed in the shadows today, and will likely ride strong tomorrow. I like them, and a few other climbers (Moncoutier? Garzelli, with pride?) towards the finish.

Evans is a question mark. He must finish with the leaders to have any shot at this thing.

I think Vino may be cooked. He's done too much work, and this isn't his kind of climb. The rest day will serve him, and Evans well.

 

[Potomac]

As pointed out earlier lack of team will be only a minor factor on the final climb, which is why liquigas needs to use the strength of the team to make an early selection and isolate the likes of Vino and Evans before reaching the base of the Zonker.

 

[Bala Verde]

nice article in "het nieuwsblad" on the Zoncolanhere.

With a quote from one of the lesser gods:

'Acht à negen kilometer per uur', zegt Aerts. 'Over de hele beklimming, amper tien kilometer, doe je dus ongeveer een uur. Dat dúúrt en dat dúúrt. Pas op: je trapt nog relatief vlot, en je denkt soms dat je goed vooruit gaat. Maar als je dan op je kilometerteller kijkt, zie je daar een acht staan. Met moeite een negen. Echt frustrerend. Bij momenten zag ik het niet meer zitten.'

8-9 km/hr, says Aerts. The whole climb, hardly 10kms, takes you one whole hour. It goes on forever. And be mindful: your cadence is sometimes quite good, and you'll start thinking that you are doing really well. When you look at your speedometer, you'll be staring at an 8. With some luck, a 9. Really frustrating. At moments I didn't think I was going to make it.

and instead of the commonly used 39-25, they'll mount a 34-27

 

[Cobblestones]

Gaps between the contenders:

Sastre: 0:00
Wigans: +1:05
Nibali: +1:24
Vino: +1:48
Cuddles: +1:59
Basso: +2:16

assuming, of course, Arroyo, Porte, Tondo, Kiserlovski, Gerdemann at one point or another will lose big time.

I think it's great that beginning of week 3, there's still 5-6 credible GC men within ~2' of each other.

Wigans is probably the worst climber of the bunch. Vino likely has peaked and will suffer in week 3. Cuddles has found his fighting spirit but still needs to make up time. Sastre is a bit of an enigma. He wasn't great so far, but is actually ahead of the others. My feeling is that he's improving, but he isn't quite there, yet. Zoncolan might come a few days early for him. Leaky has two men in there, but Nibali might be the slightly weaker one, and Basso trails everybody else. They rode impressive today, but Nibali might have spent quite a bit of energy and Basso didn't make up that much time.

Zoncolan will definitely be interesting.

 

[killswitch]

Predictions

Vino will probably lose 5+ minutes. He may have peaked too early. Evans may just hang on or lose up to a minute.
Leaky will probably set a hard tempo on the first climb so that nobody can attack and get away and tire the others.
Gibo, Moncotie, a Rabo rider and two or three more to get in the breakaway
and be caught at the foot of the Zoncolan.
Basso/Sastre for the win.

 

[taiwan]

Can anyone explain why they fancy Basso for this? The couple of times I've seen him ride during the last year, I haven't seen him theaten to win any mountain stage, let alone a huge wall like the Zoncolan. Even in the Giro del Trentino which he won last year (didn't see it) he didn't win a stage. Could understand his abilities gradually improving after his return, but has he shown that much yet? Excuse me if I'm underestimating him because of his riding style.

 

[Zoncolan]

Can anyone explain why they fancy Basso for this? The couple of times I've seen him ride during the last year, I haven't seen him theaten to win any mountain stage, let alone a huge wall like the Zoncolan. Even the Giro del Trentino wich he won last year (didn't see it) he didn't win a stage. Could understand his abilities gradually improving after his return, but has he shown that much yet? Excuse me if I'm underestimating him because of his riding style.

With every climb that he climbed at the Giro this year, he looks to me more and more like the Basso that easilly rode away from everyone at the 2006 Giro. He did a lot of pulling up the Grappa and even dropped Evans towards the top.

 

[Gregory]

Can anyone explain why they fancy Basso for this? The couple of times I've seen him ride during the last year, I haven't seen him theaten to win any mountain stage, let alone a huge wall like the Zoncolan. Even in the Giro del Trentino which he won last year (didn't see it) he didn't win a stage. Could understand his abilities gradually improving after his return, but has he shown that much yet? Excuse me if I'm underestimating him because of his riding style.

Good observation. It is not Basso at all who will be a favourite, but Nibali. Nibali is not growing weaker at all during the Giro. At Liquigas they dropped the idea of Basso as a leader, and Nibali as helper. They are now on equal footing. Nibali may reveal himself as a new force in cycling. It may have been a bad mistake to make Nibali wait for Basso at the "dirty" stage

 

[Zoncolan]

Good observation. It is not Basso at all who will be a favourite, but Nibali. Nibali is not growing weaker at all during the Giro. At Liquigas they dropped the idea of Basso as a leader, and Nibali as helper. They are now on equal footing. Nibali may reveal himself as a new force in cycling. It may have been a bad mistake to make Nibali wait for Basso at the "dirty" stage

Nibali isn't that great on the really steep gradients. Look at how he climbed at the '07 and '08 Giros. Basso will be better on Zoncolan.
Besides, it will be Basso who attacks first, so as to make the other favorites chase.

 

[Gregory]

Nibali isn't that great on the really steep gradients. Look at how he climbed at the '07 and '08 Giros. Basso will be better on Zoncolan.

That's possible. But on the other hand you have take into account the fact, that Nibali is still an improving rider. Climbers usually reach full maturity and class near 30. This may be the moment for Nibali. But yes, anything is possible, including Basso's revival

 

[Mellow Velo]

For an idea about live feed times.
Eurosport will be "sketchy" tomorrow, due to things with engines and the qualifying round of a tennis tournament, that the French annoyingly put on, each year, to disrupt the Giro.
Rai have split coverage.
RAITRE: 12-55cet-14-00 (plus chatty, chatty)
RAI SPORT: 14-00-14-30 (thats all, some hickey, hockey match)
RAITRE: 14-30 - 17-45.
So you may have to shop around for feeds.

Tomorrow: There Will Be Blood.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

On the grappa, Basso was stronger than Nibali in my opinion. Don't let a downhill, Nibali's strength, fool you.
I think Nibali will have problems on the Zoncolan. Nibali is more the tempo-col kind of rider

 

[Gregory]

Nibali is more the tempo-col kind of rider

There was a time when they were saying the same thing about Basso...
This made me realize the similarities between Nibali's and Basso's early career. Although both Italian, they made the name for themselves in the Tour winning white jersey. Both rode pretty conservatively, keeping with the leaders as long as possible. Both were considered "tempo-col".

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Nibali is more of a time triallist and much more of a winner than Basso. I don't agree about the similarities

If you are searching someone similar to Basso, I'd name Gesink, he could be a clone.