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Giro d'Italia Stage 19: Brescia - Aprica (195km)

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Zoncolan said:
They said they will decide on the day before.

Liquigas will blow it apart (I hope). Basso goes over the top of Mortirolo first, then Evans, Scarponi, and Nibali catch him on the way down. Scarponi takes the stage.

They won't cancel it unless Basso is in pink. :)

I don't think they will cancel it if it is at all possible to ride. Zomegnan wants a spectacle that will rival those of legend.
 
ttrider said:
Gavia being dropped is good news for 2 people, Arroyo and Porte

I disagree.
The Gavia was being climbed from the "easier" side. 24kms sure, but at an average gradient under 6%. A high tempo grind, is better for Arroyo.
If the Mortirolo comes in, from that side, it's 15kms at 8.3%.
Not so good for Arroyo.

If the Gavia goes, it's a win, win situation for Ivan the Terrible. (descender)
 
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Magnus said:
Then fly in hampsten.:rolleyes:

ilmeteo.it says the 0 degree celsius altitude will be 3000 m in bormio at saturday. Has there been any anouncements about cancelling or is it just gessing?

What about Breukink, he didn't need some wimpy jacket on the descent :cool:
 
I too can see Liquigas sending Nibali out and making Cadel pull Basso along. But Basso likes to attack in back-to-back mountain stages, and this one really fits his style, so he could put the heat on here, knowing others will be worn out tomorrow where he'll attack again.

I would say the two hardest climbs in cycling are the Zoncolon and Angliru. But many others could be listed. Lots of roads in Europe as steep, or steeper than these, but not raced.
 
Alpe d'Huez said:
I too can see Liquigas sending Nibali out and making Cadel pull Basso along. But Basso likes to attack in back-to-back mountain stages, and this one really fits his style, so he could put the heat on here, knowing others will be worn out tomorrow where he'll attack again.

I would say the two hardest climbs in cycling are the Zoncolon and Angliru. But many others could be listed. Lots of roads in Europe as steep, or steeper than these, but not raced.

That sounds like what Liquigas should be doing tomorrow, but I don't want to predict anything. Should be great! :D Maybe we'll see Moncoutie sometime over the next two days, but I doubt it.

Agree with the second point.
 
The Basso di Mortirolo...
I wonder what will happen after the Mortirolo. It's still 33 km from there. Will Basso still have Nibali and maybe Smith with him? How far will Arroyo be behind and will he have support from team mates or riders from other teams? Is the final climb in Evans' advantage?
 
Vonn Brinkman said:
Awful downhill skills? Did you perhaps see stage 14??? Nibali attacks, Evans and Scarponi try to respond and do their best descending and Basso simply danced around them comfortably racing down without losing a single second.
Basso will be fine. He, Scarponi, Evans, Nibali, Cunego (just for kicks):p to go over top together, Basso to attack on the final climb, will fail, Cunego wins the sprint! :D

Yes, awful. A gnat on wheels can descend better. Evans did not do his best descending. In fact, he was embarressed and said he descended "like a bus" ... in other words, the sh*ts. Basso has improved, but he is still not a great descender and he could get gapped. However, it depends on the damage made going up the big M. If Evans hangs on, B-Man has a problem, if they gap Evans, which is possible, then the descending may not make much of a difference.

Annnnnd, I would normally look at a 15 km TT and say - Evans can take 20-60 seconds out of Basso. However, Basso is definitely looking better right now, so it is more likely going to be 20-30 seconds. Evans will certainly be trying everything to gain back seconds, if he does not, this could be yet another 2nd.
 
Tornadin said:
I think basso's goal will be to just stick with Evans and save as much energy as possible, while Nibali attacks and takes the Stage.

The next day on the Gavia will be Basso's day.

It worked for Liquigas last weekend, so why should they change their strategy?

In general, I agree with this being a possible strategy. The biggest difference, was that last weekend Nibali was only 8 seconds behind and the leader of Leaky could have been either. he or Basso Now Niabli is 1:44 behind Evans and Evans knows he can TT on par, or faster, than Nibali, so he knows how much time he can give up. Tactically, he does not need to bury himself nearly as much.

Further, Sastre, Scarponi and Vino are still going to try and win or podium, and Basso knows that 2nd is not good enough, Leaky is aiming to win (duh). So they can try the set up via Nibali, but the gaps are bigger now and the others are just as likely to respond to Nibali as Evans is.

I predict a killer pace up to the top of the Mortirolo. If Evans has gearing problems again, he is f*cked and it will be his own fault in terms of prep. Anyone significantly gapped by the top is likely gone, although I do not know these roads - perhaps it is possible to catch back on? If all the favs are there at the last climb, it would be difficult for Basso to gap Evans and he is more likely going to lose some time.

The next 3 days will be awesome to watch.
 

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God it will be a massacre on saturday if what Sporza today said was true, that they weren't sure yet if they were able to climb the Gavia on saturday and if this wouldn't be possible they would do the Mortirolo, although from a different never before done side
 
I don't know how they're going to do that unless they have some kind of crazy long loop... The stage's plan had them going south out of Bormio and doing a loop over three climbs back to Bormio, which is one end of the Gavia. In order to do the Mortirolo from the 'other' side, they would then need to either go over the Gavia and turn back on themselves to get to the other end of the Mortirolo, or do a long circuit involving doing the Aprica in reverse, do the other side of the Mortirolo, then do the other side of the Aprica again, then a longish flat section before the Passo Tonale...
 

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Libertine Seguros said:
I don't know how they're going to do that unless they have some kind of crazy long loop... The stage's plan had them going south out of Bormio and doing a loop over three climbs back to Bormio, which is one end of the Gavia. In order to do the Mortirolo from the 'other' side, they would then need to either go over the Gavia and turn back on themselves to get to the other end of the Mortirolo, or do a long circuit involving doing the Aprica in reverse, do the other side of the Mortirolo, then do the other side of the Aprica again, then a longish flat section before the Passo Tonale...

It's only what I heard during the coverage of today's stage, don't know what the credence of it is, or how they would make the stage. We won't know until tomorrow evening, if I'm correct. But as others said, it is really fitting for this giro, Altough riding trough a few inches of snow would also be really fitting :p
 
Once again from CQ:
Climbs for likely alternate route Saturday: Trivigno (14.5km/8.9%), Aprica (6.2km/7.4%), Mortirolo from Grosio (14.8km/8.3%), then Tonale.

So, I assume the first two climbs would be the reverse of tomorrow, but I can't see how they get to Grosio, for the "new" Mortirolo ascent.:confused:

Anyhow, it's the bittersweet time, now. Two huge stages, but we are entering the final weekend of this great race.

Nibali and Vino are going to be more than bit players, IMO.
 
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BUt tonights route is not changed? Hope not!

I think if Basso doesn't go then evans won't but i still think basso will have a go. Evans can stick with basso and hopefully get a bonus at the finish line. That's what he needs to do as he can try to get away from basso on stage 20 as he may suffer from making a big long effort and then trying to back it up after in the next two stages.
 
To be honest, acf, now is the time for the 'old' Evans to come out to play again. Evans shouldn't burn energy attacking because Basso will likely outclimb him. If Evans can stick with him on Mortirolo he has a chance of putting a bit of time into him on the shallower Aprica, and Evans will outsprint Basso to the line ten times out of ten. That right there is 16 seconds just on the line if they win the stage or are 3rd/4th; he could easily get four or five seconds on an uphill finish with a strong and powerful sprint. Do that twice, and that's 25 seconds. 17 seconds to pull back on the final ITT? Evans should be able to manage that. I don't see Evans distancing Basso on the Mortirolo to be honest. I wouldn't expect him to do so on the Gavia either, given that Evans was the hanger-on in the group on Monte Grappa (and was dropped at the last couple of hundred metres). But if he can stick to Basso like glue and make a nuisance of himself he can tire Basso out trying to attack him from the front (like happened to Evans himself on the Col de la Madeleine last year) and outsprint him, he'll be better placed. Of course, he can't really play the 'not coming to the front' card (also known as the 'Serpa Shuffle') until Arroyo and/or Porte have been sufficiently distanced otherwise he's just sabotaging both of them.
 
Remains to be seen how well Nibali does seeing that he was expecting to be doing a one week event rather than three weeks. Cant imagine he will be too far back at worst though.

Someone asked earlier who Arroyo may be able to count on. Uran seems to have been his main mountain domestique so far.

Be interesting to see if Sastre can do something in this stage. Hasnt looked good so far but is still 5th overall thanks to the break.

If Basso does break away then Evans may be able to work with Scarponi on the last ascent - it only averages 3% from what i can see. Scarponi will want to work to get time for a podium position
 
The tendency is for the bunch to splinter and elite groups to come to the base of the Aprica together, then split up there because though it isn't steep at all, those who were absolutely in the red on the Mortirolo often pop very quickly when asked to go uphill again shortly afterward.

Jeannesson has been Arroyo's other mountain helper, but the problem for Arroyo is that both Jeannesson and Urán are very young and aren't quite attuned to providing the right level of consistent tempo to suit their leader; it is here that the loss of Bruseghin will be felt most acutely.