Giro d'Italia Stage 9: Messina - Etna, 169km (let the race begin!)

[Raceoftruth]

Got a feeling anton may do something!

 

[benpounder]

Ok, Giro organisers anticipate arrival at the 110km mark at around 14.10 to 14.20 (depending on race speed). The first ascent of Etna is expected to be reached between 14.58 and 15.14.

I was working on a feed time of roughly 14.30, which is the time Gazzetta has started broadcasting some stages.

You are looking at the estimated times for the 110km to go which is the essentially the start of the first climb.

from this La Gazzetta page (PDF):

Linguaglossa___@35kph - 14.43; @37kph - 14.37 @39kph - 14.31
Etna (first)_____@35kph - 15.14; @37kph - 15.06 @39kph - 14.48
Nicolisi________@35kph - 16.55; @37kph - 16.41 @39kph - 16.29
Etna (finish)____@35kph - 17.29; @37kph - 17.14 @39kph - 17.00

All times are local, which I'd guess are CET.

 

[benpounder]

I don't think that is right, I was sure it ended at like 1% ??

From La Gazzetta Giro site:

 

[El Pistolero]

Jrod and Anton will try and do something, they're like a minute back now, so don't risk taking pink jersey too early.

 

[benpounder]

only cat-1s? What are you expecting? The Giro doesn't do "hors catégorie". The only climb paying more than cat.1 points is the Passo Giau, cos it's the Cima Coppi.

Giro cat.1 = Tour HC
Giro cat.2 = Tour cat.1
Giro cat.3 = Tour cat.2
Giro cat.4 = Tour cat.3
Tour cat.4 = total waste of time for the Giro to even think about.

That is not entirely true. In 2008, Col De la Ramaz was rated cat 1, in 2009, Col de la Colombiere was rated cat 1, and in 2010, Col du Soulor was rated cat 1. According to climbbybike.com difficulty equation, all rate about the same or higher than the first accent of Etna.

There are some climbs in the Giro that offer no points that would be at least a cat.3, maybe even cat.2, at the Tour.

I wouldnt go that far. Consider this profile for stage 11:

Monte-Ripaberarda - 13.7km: 3.0%
Monte Vidon - 2.6km: 8.6%
Papagnano - 5.1km: 3.8%
Morrovalle - 4.2km: 4.4%

[my edit] inserted a more page friendly sized jpg. And to add climb(?) details...

 

[El Pistolero]

That is not entirely true. In 2008, Col De la Ramaz was rated cat 1, in 2009, Col de la Colombiere was rated cat 1, and in 2010, Col du Soulor was rated cat 1. According to climbbybike.com difficulty equation, all rate about the same or higher than the first accent of Etna.

I wouldnt go that far. Consider this profile for stage 11:

[my edit] inserted a more page friendly sized jpg.

Wow, that stage looks like hell.

 

[will10]

Looks like a great stage to ambush Alberto.

 

[taiwan]

Yup, looks like a great stage to watch. And a terrible stage to try and control.

 

[El Pistolero]

Looks like a great stage to ambush Alberto.

Best not to get Maglia rosa before that stage.

 

[auscyclefan94]

The Great Alexander Kristoff ftw!

 

[Ryaguas]

The Great Alexander Kristoff ftw!

He was really awesome in the 8% parts today! so He should take it

 

[auscyclefan94]

I wouldn't be surprised if J-Rod has a go tonight!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

That is not entirely true. In 2008, Col De la Ramaz was rated cat 1, in 2009, Col de la Colombiere was rated cat 1, and in 2010, Col du Soulor was rated cat 1. According to climbbybike.com difficulty equation, all rate about the same or higher than the first accent of Etna.

When they did Colombière in 2009, however, they only climbed the last 7,7km of it as they'd been over the Col de Romme beforehand, which explains why it wouldn't be as high on the index as if they climbed the whole climb (which would probably have been HC).

Look at some of the 'no puntable' climbs here. Don't tell me they wouldn't be at least cat.3 in the Tour.

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/giro08/?id=stages/giro0814

 

[blaxland]

Tschoop to win stage from a breakaway,with Contador,Nibali,Sella and Scarponi close behind...Menchov and Anton to loose about 90 seconds...

 

[LukeSchmid]

BMC's Chris Butler out with a fractured pelvis from stage 3. Ouch, did very well to survive this far with that injury.

 

[Ferminal]

Gonna duplicate my post from the general Giro-thread:


Etna - Rif. Citelli 1634m - cat.1:
The Giro counts from Linguaglossa 534m, then it's 18,0km at 6,1% (1097m altitude gain)
When I count from Fiumefreddo di Sicilia 65m to Linguaglossa 534m we can add 11,1km at 4,2%, looks like it's uphill all the way.
Then it's 29,1km (1569m altitude gain) at 5.3%, wow!
Compare it with Col d'Aubisque: 29,2 km at 4,2 % (Hors Catégorie)

So if it this was the tour it would basically be two HC-mountains back to back with the last one being a MTF.

To sum it up: the stage is more difficult than the two climbs would led you believe! It's gonna be epic.

And even Aubisque can produce fireworks... 2007 MTF, Bottle attacked!

Contador or Scarponi will take Pink, if Contador gets it Scarponi might try and take it on 11 or 13 before losing it on Zoncolan. If Scarponi gets it Contador will be happy to wait until Zoncolan.

Either way, no one else has a chance of getting it for the rest of the race.

 

[veganrob]

AC does not want Maglia Rosa yet. Why use up his team with so much racing yet to go. I expect he may press the pace to feel out who his real competition may be but that is all. He already knows he is the best. I think he is one of the smartest, strongest and mentally toughest riders there is.

 

[Met de Versnelling]

Well is time for Il Squalo to prove us that He is improving and that He deserves the respect that a GT winner deserves...
The doubt that I have is that Will his diesel benefit him or be his curse in the real climbs?
Will he have the calm to stay in his rythm when Contador jumped like crazy in the real steep stuff?

Can't wait...

He did at the Vuelta against Mosquera on the last stage remember, everyone was expecting his diesel to struggle, but he paced the climb absolutely beautifully.

Edit: And Mossie's a similar sort of rider as Bertie on the steep stuff (maybe doesn't quite have the same hard acceleration)

I think he grew up a whole lot last year, and added a tactical element to his talent.Look at the way he slowed his domestiques down on stage 7 in order so they wouldn't wear themselves out before he needs them most.

 

[Cobblestoned]

I am so excited that it will be hard to find sleep. Will wake up with head on table after watching the Etna heatcam and some cyclingvideos.

Hoping for great fireworks, not meaning Etna.
At least, riders have arrived in Sizilien. Well, at least Nibali.
The shark is hot for tomorrow, he is home and has a nice hotel. So I guess he will do it, if Contador chooses not to win or not take the jersey yet.

But I somehow doubt that after seeing his little bang bang "!" today.

Anyway, surprises are always good and I always hope for those, for example, Arroyo szenarios. Just something interesting and special, or just bang bang.
I don't care.

Looking forward to see what Menchov and Purito can do.

 

[mewmewmew13]

It will be a very very good day for a couple riders...it should show who is really feeling good and who is bluffing. Scarponi is obvious---his engine is totally stoked at this moment, and it seems like Contador is bluffing his hand a bit..he is very tactically smart.

I also agree that Nibs is not about to miss anything. This has been his goal since last year, and he still is my pick for the end...I also think Nibbi is playing it smart. Let the other guys scrap while he stores as much energy as he can for the final week.

 

[mewmewmew13]

I am so excited that it will be hard to find sleep. Will wake up with head on table after watching the Etna heatcam and some cyclingvideos.

Hoping for great fireworks, not meaning Etna.
At least, riders have arrived in Sizilien. Well, at least Nibali.
The shark is hot for tomorrow, he is home and has a nice hotel. So I guess he will do it, if Contador chooses not to win or not take the jersey yet.

But I somehow doubt that after seeing his little bang bang "!" today.

Anyway, surprises are always good and I always hope for those, for example, Arroyo szenarios. Just something interesting and special, or just bang bang.
I don't care.

Looking forward to see what Menchov and Purito can do.

wow. heatcam!

 

[benpounder]

When they did Colombière in 2009, however, they only climbed the last 7,7km of it as they'd been over the Col de Romme beforehand, which explains why it wouldn't be as high on the index as if they climbed the whole climb (which would probably have been HC).

Look at some of the 'no puntable' climbs here. Don't tell me they wouldn't be at least cat.3 in the Tour.

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/giro08/?id=stages/giro0814

You are right, but last year, they did the full Colombiere, and it was still just a cat one (stage 9). Of course, the climbs in the Giro are harder than the Tour (harder than the Vuelta as well), and of course, the Tour inflates the difficulty to HC far too often, especially if it is a MTF. I'm just saying that while you can generalize, there are examples of where Tour cat 1's are equivelant to Giro cat 1's. And the first time up Etna tomorrow(today) is one of those cases. In fact, the second time up is statistically not that impressive (compared to the mountains up north): 12km @ 6%, 3km @ 8.5%, 5km @ 5.5%, and 1km @ -0.1%. Compare that to what I think are real hors catagorie climbs such as Passo Manghen (23.4km @ 7.1%) where the last 6km are at 10% and Col de la Madeleine (20km@ 8%) where it is 8% all the way up.

[my edit] I just realized that your link leads to stage 14 of the 2008 Giro - Passo Manghen

 

[theswordsman]

AC does not want Maglia Rosa yet. Why use up his team with so much racing yet to go. I expect he may press the pace to feel out who his real competition may be but that is all. He already knows he is the best. I think he is one of the smartest, strongest and mentally toughest riders there is.

I agree totally with the theory, especially since there aren't a lot of sprint stages in the future where other teams would be willing to chase down a break. But he also needs to be opportunistic. There are six queen stages in the Giro, and it's always possible to have an off day, or a mechanical at a really bad time. Friday his allergies bothered him a bit. Saturday he was okay. If it would come down to him with the other top GC guys, he has to go for the win, because of bonifications.

We think in terms of teams having to work at the front, but Saxo Bank already spends a lot of time on the side of the front to keep Contador safe from crashes. They're going the same speed as the pink jersey's team, and not drafting off anyone, so the main difference would be that they don't have to fight for position when others want to move to safety.

The big reason he might prefer not to have the jersey is because of the obligations after the stage when he's wanting to rest. But I think if he's in the pink, the breaks will have a much better shot at stage wins and stage placings, like they did in 2008.

I'm not sure if I'm going to fall asleep tonight either. I love everything about this stage.

 

[therhodeo]

I've not been this excited about a week of racing ever. I think finally we have a race and field who could possibly break Contador and turn this into a real battle. I hope at least.

 

[greenedge]

I expect Androni to attack and For Colnago to get someone in a break Pirazzi/ Bramblla. Rujano to go well too but Contador FTW, Nibali 2nd so he can = the trait of GC favourites getting 2nd.