Giro d'Italia Stage 9: Messina - Etna, 169km (let the race begin!)

[Ryo Hazuki]

Fantasy cycling dilema, Out of these four, who will finish highest today:

Lofkvist
Pinotti
Pozzovivo
Arroyo

Thoughts would be appreciated, cheers!

pozzovivo no doubt

 

[will10]

Fermal and Will10 - thanks for your thoughts

Interesting that you both think that Lofkvist doesn't have much chance, he is in my team, but will be removed for one of the others... hmmm

Also, since you seem keen to help,

Same question on this lot:

Kruijswijk
Cataldo
Machedo
Pirazzi
Tschopp

Thanks again

That one's a bit more tricky. Machado - no-one seems to know how well he's going. Pirazzi and Tschopp are down on GC so could a) get in the break and either finish high up or in the grupetto, b) could sit in the gruppetto today to save energy to attack another day. etc. Kruijswijk and Cataldo are likely to finish in the top 10 - 20....yeah this one's difficult to decide.

I would go with Kruijswijk but it could be any of them really.

 

[will10]

rujano. it could be a risk but perhaps worht risking if he sends up some good man first and then jumps to them in climb and gets help until final climb. wouldn't surprise me if peloton took it easy

I hope so, would be great to see

 

[Walkman]

Fantasy cycling dilema, Out of these four, who will finish highest today:

Lofkvist
Pinotti
Pozzovivo
Arroyo

Thoughts would be appreciated, cheers!

Today, on these kind of climbs I am pretty confident that Lofkvist will come in together with or before the other riders you have listed.

 

[taiwan]

Arroyo has a good record at the Giro though. It's tricky to compare with Pozzovivo whose recent performances have been in lessr races with lesser competition. Also it's not super steep today and there's some flat before the finish.

 

[Ferminal]

lol, Nibali surrounded by fanboys.

 

[jens_attacks]

savio said yesterday that they will attack all over the place.let's see if it's true.

 

[Midnightfright]

Im expecting to see a group of maybe 6-7 elite favourites finish together today and fancy Scarponi to win the sprint then a group of 10-15 2nd tier guys to finish about 1-2 minutes back. Dont think there will be too many surprises.

 

[taiwan]

lol, Nibali surrounded by fanboys.

Video, or...?

 

[Greenflame]

Why is everyone only thinking about Contador, Scarponi and Nibali? Kreuziger islooking very strong so far. He has lost some time on the above three, but is sure to try something at some point, he has really improved since joining Astana.

Menchov hasn't shown anything yet, including weakness. I don't see him losing much time today. Rodriguez wasn't impressive either so far, I honestly have not a clue how strong (or weak) he is. Then there's Anton, who won't win this Giro but seems likely to pick some stages at some point.

Contador might have a harder time then people expect this Giro. I will be cheering for Nibali anyway, he really gained my support last year to the point where he's about my favourite GC contender now. The fun part about this Giro is that I actually like all the contenders though There's no winner I will be disappointed with, so I'll just hope for a good fight between all of them.

 

[Ferminal]

Video, or...?

Nah live, RAI interviewed him in a pack of wild fans.

 

[taiwan]

Man I really can't wait for this to start. I know there may not be that much action in the end, but still.

 

[jens_attacks]

damn nibali really has some fans....i might got it wrong...but 200,000 il squalo fans will be on etna?

anyway those sicilian chicks cheering for him are pretty much enough

 

[gregrowlerson]

Very excited about this stage, and happy that it is live on Australian television tonight. We are also getting the stage 14 Zoncolan stage.

I would expect there to be a major sort out tonight. Sure, Etna's not THAT steep, but it is too long to not have a big impact. It is like the final climb from the '06 TDF stage 16 (see my avatar!). That climb produced major time gaps, though of course there was a little more climbing before it than in this Giro stage.

Still, with stage 10 not being decisive (and the next really big stage not for a few days) I don't see the GC guys holding back, except for maybe Contador who is good enough to basically pick his moments in a race. The first 10-12 kms should reduce the pack to less than 20 riders and then there will be an explosion over the 3km section at over 8%. There should only be a few realistic contenders for the overall after this stage.

 

[joy118118]

damn nibali really has some fans....i might got it wrong...but 200,000 il squalo fans will be on etna?

anyway those sicilian chicks cheering for him are pretty much enough

Nibali mafia

 

[Scirea]

Why is everyone only thinking about Contador, Scarponi and Nibali? Kreuziger islooking very strong so far. He has lost some time on the above three, but is sure to try something at some point, he has really improved since joining Astana.

Menchov hasn't shown anything yet, including weakness. I don't see him losing much time today. Rodriguez wasn't impressive either so far, I honestly have not a clue how strong (or weak) he is. Then there's Anton, who won't win this Giro but seems likely to pick some stages at some point.

Contador might have a harder time then people expect this Giro. I will be cheering for Nibali anyway, he really gained my support last year to the point where he's about my favourite GC contender now. The fun part about this Giro is that I actually like all the contenders though There's no winner I will be disappointed with, so I'll just hope for a good fight between all of them.

I agree that Kreuziger is loooking very strong. And i have a feeling that Purito is not. Don't know why but if i had to pick one to be dropped from the main favs it would be him.

 

[La Pandera]

I agree totally with the theory, especially since there aren't a lot of sprint stages in the future where other teams would be willing to chase down a break. But he also needs to be opportunistic. There are six queen stages in the Giro, and it's always possible to have an off day, or a mechanical at a really bad time. Friday his allergies bothered him a bit. Saturday he was okay. If it would come down to him with the other top GC guys, he has to go for the win, because of bonifications.

We think in terms of teams having to work at the front, but Saxo Bank already spends a lot of time on the side of the front to keep Contador safe from crashes. They're going the same speed as the pink jersey's team, and not drafting off anyone, so the main difference would be that they don't have to fight for position when others want to move to safety.

The big reason he might prefer not to have the jersey is because of the obligations after the stage when he's wanting to rest. But I think if he's in the pink, the breaks will have a much better shot at stage wins and stage placings, like they did in 2008.

I'm not sure if I'm going to fall asleep tonight either. I love everything about this stage.

Excellent points, especially about the added obligations (time) that accompanies the wearer of pink after every stage.

 

[ak-zaaf]

BBC goes up Etna with Cav.

Spinal Tap anyone?

 

[Ferminal]

Still no break after 30km...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I see after reading some of the posts that followed yours LS, that there is some conflicting information about the ETNA % gradient that has been posted. So being it is a cat-1, it must have a steeper gradient. So if that's really the case, then we could have, hope to have, a good show tomorrow. Yay.

The thing with Etna is it's LONG. There is plenty of climbing before the part that RCS have considered the climb proper.

The Alto da Torre, at 31,3km @ 5,1%, is to me a legit cat.1 climb, not because it's steep but because it's very long and its gradient never truly settles - it gets as high as 17% but also includes false flats and short descents.

Here are some other climbs which are not especially steep but have been HC at the Tour:

Col d'Agnel (42km @ 4,1%)
Arcalis (18km @ 5,2%)
Col de l'Aubisque (Soulor)(29,2km @ 4,2%)
Col de la Croix de Fer (St. Jean de Maurienne)(30,0km @ 5,1%)
Col de l'Izoard (Briançon)(20,0km @ 5,7%)

Is Etna likely to be as hard as Croix de Fer? Maybe not. But it's certainly likely to be as hard as Arcalis.

 

[auscyclefan94]

This stage will be contested amongst the favourites. These stages with longer mountain passes in them don't suit the breakaway much. I fear that all the favourites will wheel suck up Etna until they get to the top.

 

[Midnightfright]

BBC goes up Etna with Cav.

Spinal Tap anyone?

Must of been a strange sensation for Cav passing someone on a climb

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I remember in the AGR tourversion, when some guy from Metec Cycling (dutch amateur team) passed every tourist like there is no tomorrow with ease.

Then you ride up to him, and he tells you that in races, he usually hangs at the back for dear life on the same hills..
So at pro level, you already have to be a very good climber to even stand a chance of finishing races.

Cavendish would probably own an entire amateur field on every climb there is.

The TDF bus goes way faster up climbs than the best the best train cyclotourists and even most elite riders/amateurs

 

[marco1_79]

Etna is an easy climb.
I would not expect too much today.

 

[will10]

Still no break after 30km...

You got a live feed? or a ticker?