karlboss said:
Thought I'd resurrect this thread...scarponi, garzelli anyone?
Garzelli, as was posted prior to mine, hasn't shown that he can contend in a 3 week stage race since maybe 2003 or earlier. He can no longer be competitive in the mountains day after day. In the week long stage races he seems to have maintained his abilities and even had somewhat of a renaissance of form. In the grand tours he'd be better served chasing stage wins and the KOM jersey.
Scarponi's limits are quite similar to Garzelli's. I firmly believe that had he not injured his wrist that he would have successfully defended his Tirreno-Adriatico title this year. I don't know serious his injury may be but I wouldn't have expected him to contend for a Giro podium spot but more likely do the same as Garzelli: stage wins and KOM.
The serious contenders for the Giro would have to be Sastre, Basso and Evans with the edge going to Basso.
Sastre won't have to deal with the rabid accelerations of DiLuca this year nor will he have Menchov's level of steadiness and all-around proficiency to compete with. I think he can take time out of Evans in the mountains and especially on Zoncolan to make up for his losses in the ITT. Depending on who Cervelo brings they should be able to limit their time lost to BMC in the TTT to 30 seconds or even come close to matching them.
I believe this year will be Evans' last chance to get that elusive grand tour victory. Unfortunately for Evans I don't see any improvement in the support riders of BMC compared to what he left at Lotto. He will once again be on his own when things heat up in the mountains. The plus is that he should be quite comfortable in this environment considering his recent past. The negative is once again he will be likely be "tag-teamed" by the Liquigas crew of Basso/Pellizoti and Cervelo's Sastre/Tondo.
Basso I anticipate will show improved form over last year but no where near the Simoni quote of "extra-terrestrial" form of 2005. IMO it will be enough to edge out Evans, Sastre and cause a rift in the Liquigas team with Pellizoti who had high hopes of improving on his 2009 3rd place finish. Basso's a diesel like Evans but a turbo-diesel that can accelerate away from some of his adversaries-ride them off his wheel, on certain grades. It should be interesting to see the battle between the former teammates Basso and Sastre considering that Sastre used to ride in support of Basso and has since won the most coveted victory in the sport, the Tour.
I'm hedging a bit here but with Sastre's performance at the Giro, winning 2 stages with such dramatic flair, I'm hoping that those wins were him exhasusting what strength he had left from his completion of all 2008 grand tours and at the same time displaying an increased confidence in his abilities after his Tour win. Prior to his Tour win Sastre was a rider that won little but was a steady gc performer in the grand tours. His Giro victories IMO were examples of how the Giro is his kind of race, one that favors the climbers that can time trial just a bit.
I'm personally hoping it turns into a battle between Sastre and Basso with Sastre winning with an emphatic performance on Zoncolan.
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