Giro predictions:

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Jun 16, 2009
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Garzelli? No way. Too inconsistent in last few years in GT's, and it isn't getting better by the years either.

Yes, 1-week tours, fine, but GT's, nah, not as of late
last year personally he was the 3rd strongest rider in the bunch escept he had that really bad day.
 
Sep 2, 2009
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This my top ten:

1. Evans
2. Sastre
3. Pellizotti
4. Basso
5. Simoni
6. Soler
7. Ricco
8. Rujano
9. Mosquera
10. Arroyo

Bearing in mind how it usually goes when I try to predict something, I have to send out my apology to all of you who support cuddles. So sorry! but Evans winning the giro would mean I had predicted something and that's just not gonna happen, I think we all know that.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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Bike Boy said:
This my top ten:

1. Evans
2. Sastre
3. Pellizotti
4. Basso
5. Simoni
6. Soler
7. Ricco
8. Rujano
9. Mosquera
10. Arroyo

Bearing in mind how it usually goes when I try to predict something, I have to send out my apology to all of you who support cuddles. So sorry! but Evans winning the giro would mean I had predicted something and that's just not gonna happen, I think we all know that.
:confused:
Why are you sorry for predicting him?
 
Sep 2, 2009
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auscyclefan94 said:
:confused:
Why are you sorry for predicting him?
What I predict is just never gonna happen. as simple as that.
meant to state that in the original post, but I sometimes I struggle to write understandable in english.
 
karlboss said:
Thought I'd resurrect this thread...scarponi, garzelli anyone?
Garzelli, as was posted prior to mine, hasn't shown that he can contend in a 3 week stage race since maybe 2003 or earlier. He can no longer be competitive in the mountains day after day. In the week long stage races he seems to have maintained his abilities and even had somewhat of a renaissance of form. In the grand tours he'd be better served chasing stage wins and the KOM jersey.

Scarponi's limits are quite similar to Garzelli's. I firmly believe that had he not injured his wrist that he would have successfully defended his Tirreno-Adriatico title this year. I don't know serious his injury may be but I wouldn't have expected him to contend for a Giro podium spot but more likely do the same as Garzelli: stage wins and KOM.

The serious contenders for the Giro would have to be Sastre, Basso and Evans with the edge going to Basso.

Sastre won't have to deal with the rabid accelerations of DiLuca this year nor will he have Menchov's level of steadiness and all-around proficiency to compete with. I think he can take time out of Evans in the mountains and especially on Zoncolan to make up for his losses in the ITT. Depending on who Cervelo brings they should be able to limit their time lost to BMC in the TTT to 30 seconds or even come close to matching them.

I believe this year will be Evans' last chance to get that elusive grand tour victory. Unfortunately for Evans I don't see any improvement in the support riders of BMC compared to what he left at Lotto. He will once again be on his own when things heat up in the mountains. The plus is that he should be quite comfortable in this environment considering his recent past. The negative is once again he will be likely be "tag-teamed" by the Liquigas crew of Basso/Pellizoti and Cervelo's Sastre/Tondo.

Basso I anticipate will show improved form over last year but no where near the Simoni quote of "extra-terrestrial" form of 2005. IMO it will be enough to edge out Evans, Sastre and cause a rift in the Liquigas team with Pellizoti who had high hopes of improving on his 2009 3rd place finish. Basso's a diesel like Evans but a turbo-diesel that can accelerate away from some of his adversaries-ride them off his wheel, on certain grades. It should be interesting to see the battle between the former teammates Basso and Sastre considering that Sastre used to ride in support of Basso and has since won the most coveted victory in the sport, the Tour.

I'm hedging a bit here but with Sastre's performance at the Giro, winning 2 stages with such dramatic flair, I'm hoping that those wins were him exhasusting what strength he had left from his completion of all 2008 grand tours and at the same time displaying an increased confidence in his abilities after his Tour win. Prior to his Tour win Sastre was a rider that won little but was a steady gc performer in the grand tours. His Giro victories IMO were examples of how the Giro is his kind of race, one that favors the climbers that can time trial just a bit.

I'm personally hoping it turns into a battle between Sastre and Basso with Sastre winning with an emphatic performance on Zoncolan.
 
Bike Boy said:
What I predict is just never gonna happen. as simple as that.
meant to state that in the original post, but I sometimes I struggle to write understandable in english.
Hey, I understood it fine. It was pretty clear, at least to me, that that was what you meant to convey.:)

Reading your predictions made me realize that I had totally forgotten about Mozquera and Soler, to riders that I enjoy watching very much. I know Xacobea's invite has been confirmed, but has Caisse D'Epargne posted a likely roster for their Giro team? If so I'd have to rethink my unposted top ten predictions.:D
 
Can't remember what I posted earlier in this thread, but I hope Sastre can win this. Would be cool to see him going for the Vuelta as well - he's podiumed there 2 or 3 times I think.

Oh, I said 1. Sastre, 2. Liquigas 3. Evans
 
Sep 2, 2009
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Angliru said:
Hey, I understood it fine. It was pretty clear, at least to me, that that was what you meant to convey.:)

Reading your predictions made me realize that I had totally forgotten about Mozquera and Soler, to riders that I enjoy watching very much. I know Xacobea's invite has been confirmed, but has Caisse D'Epargne posted a likely roster for their Giro team? If so I'd have to rethink my unposted top ten predictions.:D
Actually I don't know. Didn't put too much consideration into my top 10. It's a climbers giro (as usual) so I picked a lot of climbers.

I enjoyed reading your thoughts, concerning the giro contenders by the way.
Our thoughts are very similar, only I predict Evans to win.
Indeed it will be interesting to follow the battle between Basso and Sastre, I would never dare to put my money on Sastre though.
I was a little suprised when he won the tour in 2008, I guees it's his riding style. It's just not what you associate, with the obvious favourite. but he's super consistent and it doesn't leave the other contenders, with much room for mistakes. Therein lies his chance.
 
Galic Ho said:
If he (Wigans) were smart he would but Brad isn't a thinker and will think he can podium in France and waste his energy chasing a ghost of a dream. Sad, but British at the same time.
That sort of wishful thinking is not limited to Brits. Vande Velde should give up on the Tour and go all out at the Giro. He's a diesel like Evans but his chances are better in Italy than at le Tour. Same with Levi. He'd rather try for another California crown and then play spear carrier at the Tour than try to win a GT. Too late now-- Retirement Shack didn't take the Giro seriously and now they won't even get an invite.
 
Sep 16, 2009
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It's a shame Dodger is riding California. He had a legitimate chance of coming top 3. Not to worry, he'll win California anyway so it cancels the two out.
 
BroDeal said:
That could be. Vino has been riding now since the middle of last summer. Maybe that will be considered enough time.
If Vino is denied a start by the Giro and Contador only wants to race the Tour, what kind of squad would Astana send?

If I was Martinelli I'd send Pereiro to race it in the hope that he finds SOME kind of form for the Tour...
 
42x16ss said:
If Vino is denied a start by the Giro and Contador only wants to race the Tour, what kind of squad would Astana send?

If I was Martinelli I'd send Pereiro to race it in the hope that he finds SOME kind of form for the Tour...
Pereiro needs to come into the Tour fresh to support Contador. Maybe Pereiro could ride easy, possibly dropping out so he does not overdo it.

I would go for stage wins and forget about the GC.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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BroDeal said:
Pereiro needs to come into the Tour fresh to support Contador. Maybe Pereiro could ride easy, possibly dropping out so he does not overdo it.

I would go for stage wins and forget about the GC.
It is vino we are talking about here.;)
 
Oct 29, 2009
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The only Giro prediction I will safely make is that I will fully enjoy the GT that rarely fails to deliver.

Would have loved to see a few more names going for this, and Menchov to defend the crown. But with the cast of characters that has been assembled, it still looks like great viewing to me.

Kinda hoping BMC will not get in the Tour, for the only reason that I would love to see Evans compete here without any excuse to hold anything back. His best chance at adding a GT to his palmares, and if he himself can't let go of chasing the dream, then please let someone do him a favour so he will get to grab the sweeties on offer.

With a bit of luck he might pull a Menchov. Supprot from a team that will go all out, but can get him only so far into the race, but being able to finish it off nevertheless. Menchov knows how to bite and don't let go, until he delivers his blow.Looks like Evans now also has clocked that biting alone won't get you there. He can win. Although last chance saloon if you ask me.

I expect Basso is the guy to beat, but would love to see Sastre grab this one. The Spanish/(mock Argentinians) could collect a long line of impressive podia this year.
 
Aug 12, 2009
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BeachBum said:
That sort of wishful thinking is not limited to Brits. Vande Velde should give up on the Tour and go all out at the Giro. He's a diesel like Evans but his chances are better in Italy than at le Tour. Same with Levi. He'd rather try for another California crown and then play spear carrier at the Tour than try to win a GT. Too late now-- Retirement Shack didn't take the Giro seriously and now they won't even get an invite.
I thought Levi would win the 2009 Giro. I won't be making that mistake again. California is it for him for the rest of his career.

As for CVV. Didn't think of it that way. Garmin would need to get a stronger GC rider for CVV or Vaughters to even consider letting CVV try his luck in Italy rather than France. CVV is the best the team has. He needs to work his stuff in France rather than Italy as the team need the exposure. I liked him in 2008, he came fourth right? After the Kohl disqualification. Heck that means Menchov made the podium. No wonder he won the Giro. That would **** most people off, being denied a podium spot in Paris because someone was complacent and was nabbed.
 
Galic Ho said:
As for CVV. Didn't think of it that way. Garmin would need to get a stronger GC rider for CVV or Vaughters to even consider letting CVV try his luck in Italy rather than France. CVV is the best the team has. He needs to work his stuff in France rather than Italy as the team need the exposure. I liked him in 2008, he came fourth right? After the Kohl disqualification. Heck that means Menchov made the podium. No wonder he won the Giro. That would **** most people off, being denied a podium spot in Paris because someone was complacent and was nabbed.
Who will Garmin send to the Giro? DZ is supposedly targeting the ToC. Vaughters has indicated that TD might suprise at the ToC. The team cannot afford to let CVV shoot his wad in Italy. The team won't be able to do their usual targeting of the TTT.
 
Sep 25, 2009
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BroDeal said:
That could be. Vino has been riding now since the middle of last summer. Maybe that will be considered enough time.
i would think if the rcs had wanted to ban vino from the giro, they'd block him from tirreno-adriatico ? don't know.

even if he rides the giro, i dont see him going for the gc - if he wants to be strong in july that is. many riders said the giro in 2010 is too hard to recover top form by july.
 
May 15, 2009
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Angliru said:
but has Caisse D'Epargne posted a likely roster for their Giro team? If so I'd have to rethink my unposted top ten predictions.:D
Both Arroyo and Bruseghin will ride the Giro. I will be happy if Soler, Uran and Rui Costa are among participants. They can hope for top-5 or even top-3.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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Sasquatch said:
It's a shame Dodger is riding California. He had a legitimate chance of coming top 3. Not to worry, he'll win California anyway so it cancels the two out.
Agreed, the ttt would give him a good advantage.
 
May 15, 2009
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Does anyone remember when Evans has shown something special on super-steep mountains like Zoncolan or Kronplatz? He also tends to become weaker in the third week of GT and look at that penultimate stage, it is absolutely brutal. The guy has no chance.

Sastre, on the other hand, benefits from long stages featuring a few high mountain passes especially in the third week. He is my number 1 favourite.

I will also rate Pellizotti above Basso,the latter now became diesel and has zero explosiveness. He is also not able to ride people of his wheel now as he could before his two-year ban. He will end the race in 4th or in 5th.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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Delicato said:
Does anyone remember when Evans has shown something special on super-steep mountains like Zoncolan or Kronplatz? He also tends to become weaker in the third week of GT and look at that penultimate stage, it is absolutely brutal. The guy has no chance.
Being a former mtb you would think he would be stronger on super steep gradients. i seen him in a few races excel on the super steep gradients.
 
Jul 30, 2009
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While I agree with Galic Ho's sledging of the negative thinking that pervades the cricket team (most of the time, remind me who has the Ashes at the moment?;)), here is an interesting tidbit from the current Cyclesport:

CS: Win at the Giro or 3rd at the Tour?
Scott Sunderland: "We'd prefer 3rd in the Tour."
Wiggo: "Giro!!!!!!"

Sunderland did then think about it a bit, and start to realise it might be good.

But came back on message by the end of the interview.

Personally, I think winning the Giro is waaaaay better than 3rd at the Tour and hope Wiggins shows well enough early on that he goes for it.

But, that's wishful thinking, more sensibly have to fancy Sastre. Then a Liquigas. If they can make their minds up. Soler for 3rd.
 
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