From my observations it almost seems that everyone who is considered a GC contender for the TDF has either Blown their load for the Giro (nibali,basso,Evans,Wiggo,Sastre,Vino) or isnt looking to be in that great of form (schleck,LA). So it almost seems to me that all these contenders are scheduling their season goals around the TDFor peaked already (bottle). Why is it that there is no one really saying they want the TDF win this year. IS AC that unbeatable but no one says it out loud. Is everyone just racing for podium spots?
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Have All GC contenders given up?
- Thread starter hammt34
- Start date
I have to disagree here. Contador, Schlecks, and Armstrong are all clearly targeting the TdF, practically to the exclusion of all other races. Wiggins has used the Giro as Tour prep, exactly as he did last year. Vino made it very clear from the get-go that he's not a Tour GC contender, anyway. Menchov is another Tour specialist who gave up on the Giro for the Tour, too.
So, the only real Tour threat who seems to have poured everything into the Giro is Evans. Given that he was a real contender for victory in this Giro (whereas the Tour win looks unlikely for him at BMC), I think it was a wise gamble. Other than Evans, Nibali will be spent--as you suggest--but he wasn't going to win the Tour this year, anyway. Then, who knows what Sastre is ever thinking/planning for.
Bottom line, I don't think this Giro has changed the potential Tour podium too much. If it did, though, I don't really care because this Giro was awesome and I had more free time for viewing it than I will have during the Tour!
So, the only real Tour threat who seems to have poured everything into the Giro is Evans. Given that he was a real contender for victory in this Giro (whereas the Tour win looks unlikely for him at BMC), I think it was a wise gamble. Other than Evans, Nibali will be spent--as you suggest--but he wasn't going to win the Tour this year, anyway. Then, who knows what Sastre is ever thinking/planning for.
Bottom line, I don't think this Giro has changed the potential Tour podium too much. If it did, though, I don't really care because this Giro was awesome and I had more free time for viewing it than I will have during the Tour!
Contador has had a great season already. Yesterday and today he trained in the Pyrenees doing recon of Tour stages. It sounded like today he's done the hors categorie Port de Bales.
I agree with the OP's concern about the rest, though. Evans peaked too early in the season, which meant a surprise classics win, but he had to do way too much work at the Giro. He has to be spent, and even if he can recover for the Tour, I doubt he'll be able to prepare for it properly.
Sastre might be able to bounce back because he had something like eight months off. I don't know if he has more to give, or if he's on the decline like the Eurosport announcers seem to think.
Wiggins and the team have everyone convinced he just trained through this one, and he'll lose two kilos and be a TdF stud. I'm not convinced. I agree that Frank and Andy haven't shown any form at all, and I don't expect much. I've said since February that Armstrong won't be there, so I'll stick with that.
Liquigas could be in the mix. Basso was peaked perfectly this week, so I don't think he can do that again. Nibali doesn't want to be there, but the team is sending him to training camp anyway. Pellizotti is a wild card if he can sneak in. Then there's Menchov.
The good thing, and this is the only time I've called it that, is that there are 22 teams, and lots of possibilities. People could surprise, like Wiggins did last year. But there will be lots of entertainment anyway.
I agree with the OP's concern about the rest, though. Evans peaked too early in the season, which meant a surprise classics win, but he had to do way too much work at the Giro. He has to be spent, and even if he can recover for the Tour, I doubt he'll be able to prepare for it properly.
Sastre might be able to bounce back because he had something like eight months off. I don't know if he has more to give, or if he's on the decline like the Eurosport announcers seem to think.
Wiggins and the team have everyone convinced he just trained through this one, and he'll lose two kilos and be a TdF stud. I'm not convinced. I agree that Frank and Andy haven't shown any form at all, and I don't expect much. I've said since February that Armstrong won't be there, so I'll stick with that.
Liquigas could be in the mix. Basso was peaked perfectly this week, so I don't think he can do that again. Nibali doesn't want to be there, but the team is sending him to training camp anyway. Pellizotti is a wild card if he can sneak in. Then there's Menchov.
The good thing, and this is the only time I've called it that, is that there are 22 teams, and lots of possibilities. People could surprise, like Wiggins did last year. But there will be lots of entertainment anyway.
hammt34 said:
Doubt Basso will be challenging tbh. Same with Evans. Wigans took it easy this Giro
Vino is gonna work for AC anyway. Sastre barely raced before the Giro, so he should be in good shape. Andy will peak for the Tour, he'll be ok. If Lance rides, he won't be up there.Menchov should be in top form. Erm, who else is there? Samuel Sanchez, erm..
luckyboy said:Doubt Basso will be challenging tbh. Same with Evans. Wigans took it easy this Giro
Menchov should be in top form. Erm, who else is there? Samuel Sanchez, erm..
Valverde, if he's still racing. Elder Schleck maybe. Have my doubts about Lance showing up as well. Levi? Kreuz? Kloden? No one I can think of that poses a real threat to AC.
Oh yeah, Piti and Kreuziger. If Kloden & Levi aren't dragging LA around France, I think Kloden will do better.
I posted the quote and link at the Basso thread, but he just said in an interview that he's going for the Tour de France win and the Pantani Double. Game on.
theswordsman said:I posted the quote and link at the Basso thread, but he just said in an interview that he's going for the Tour de France win and the Pantani Double. Game on.
Really cannot see that happening whatsoever. He'll lose time to AC in the TT, even if he somehow doesn't in the mountains. Plus, the mountains in France aren't the mountains in Italy..
theswordsman said:I posted the quote and link at the Basso thread, but he just said in an interview that he's going for the Tour de France win and the Pantani Double. Game on.
I'm sure he'll see how he goes, but I'm sure that's at least 50% PR at the end of the Giro. Liquigas have a pretty impressive lineup of GC contenders, and the rest seem perfectly capable/willing to be super-domestiques. The Schlecks will be very good come July and I expect LA will be better than many here are predicting. Wiggins should be top ten; Sastre, too. Evans is the lone question mark, really, although Contador remains the prohibitive favorite.
Will Cunego ride the TdF? It might be a course better suited for him than this Giro.
Add Mick Rogers to the list, he's been having a good year. He's got a chance to crack the top 5 in a GT for the first time.
The Giro D'Italia does not work as a prep race for the Tour. It just doesn't.
Don't expect much from any of the cats who did the Giro. They will be too tired to challenge for the yellow jersey, even Sastre whose form was clearly sub-par.
Sastre is a good rider, but he doesn't strike fear into the hearts of his opponents, and for good reason.
Don't expect much from any of the cats who did the Giro. They will be too tired to challenge for the yellow jersey, even Sastre whose form was clearly sub-par.
Sastre is a good rider, but he doesn't strike fear into the hearts of his opponents, and for good reason.
Epicycle said:
Unfortunately, he will get dropped on the big climbing stages. The ToC climbs don't compare to the big days in the TdF. Maybe top 10 but even that is probably a reach.
I'm looking forward to seeing Joaquin Rodriguez race for himself at the tour for once (don't know if he'll be Katushas primary rider at TDF though).
Also guys like Lulu Sanchez and Gesink could cause some damage and will along with Vande Velde be potential top5-10 riders.
Also guys like Lulu Sanchez and Gesink could cause some damage and will along with Vande Velde be potential top5-10 riders.
Kazistuta said:
If he isn't I don't know who else will be. I reckon they'll be going for stages mainly (apart from Rodriguez's GT). Was disappointed, but not surprised, by Karpets at the Giro.
Kazistuta said:
Rodriguez would do much better at the Giro, what with the steep gradients and lack of long flat TTs. He can't make top 10 IMO.
Kazistuta said:
I'm with you and a bit surprised you are the first to mention Gesink (duck
). I also like Sammy Sanchez and Kreusiger. All told, the line up at this year's TDF is going to be awesome.
hammt34 said:
Contador is so much better than the rest that they were racing for second no matter whether they did the Giro or not.
Of those that did the Giro I reckon Basso has probably come out in better condition than the rest even though he won. Between him, young Schleckette and Nibali for the minor podium spots.
Kinda early to speculate. I waiting to see who is riding strong, but not wasting effort in both the Dauphine and the TdSuisse. I have not seen rosters for either, but of realistic tour teams, only BMC was not invited to the Dauphine. Furthermore, while both have climbs in the ITT, I suspect those wishing to test themselves in this discipline would chose the Dauphine.
Note the long finishing flat. TdSuisse looks like this:
And while both have good climbing days, the Dauphine features two MTFs.
What I am curious about is how the lads that raced the ToCal fare. That was a good week of training, and they will be much more rested than anyone coming off the Giro.
Note the long finishing flat. TdSuisse looks like this:
And while both have good climbing days, the Dauphine features two MTFs.
What I am curious about is how the lads that raced the ToCal fare. That was a good week of training, and they will be much more rested than anyone coming off the Giro.
Menchov will be a great contender, if he can overcome his current problems.
Wiggins will top5.
Piti (if racing) and Sanchez will be top3 contenders. Gesink...
Plus a stack of top10 contenders, any one of which may surprise us with a top result.
Wiggins will top5.
Piti (if racing) and Sanchez will be top3 contenders. Gesink...
Plus a stack of top10 contenders, any one of which may surprise us with a top result.
Ferminal said:
menchov is useless, top 20 at best, valverde is out, sanchez is always talked up but does nothing (and that won't change this year 12th i reckon) i predict cantador, wiggins, andy schleck, armstrong in that order, unless contador gets suspended.
Sánchez was 2nd in the Vuelta last year, and this year's Tour parcours suits him far more than last year's... he's a much better rider than he was in 2008 when he was 7th, too...
Libertine Seguros said:
the vuelta is basically a second rate grand tour though. sanchez isn't really all that good
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