Have All GC contenders given up?

[Libertine Seguros]

But 12th? When he's a better rider than the one that came 7th two years ago? When your hypothetical Tour has to include no Valverde, and Menchov only scraping the top 20 (plausible given the form he's in at present, but if Menchov's in good form he'll do much better than that).

So you predict Contador, Wiggins, Andy Schleck and Armstrong in that order (unless Contador is suspended, in which case you clearly back Wiggins to win the Tour, which is a new one. One questions who his super-domestiques will be). And then you predict Sanchez to be 12th and Menchov to just about scrape the top 20. Who fill all those other gaps?

 

[Thee_chisa]

something like this

1, conta
2, wiggo
3, schleck, a
4, armstrong
5, schleck,f
6, evans
7, sastre
8, vino
9, nibali
10, leipheimer
11, vande velde
12, sanchez
etc

 

[djlovesyou]

Wiggins second?

You do realise there isn't a TTT and they're actually including a few mountains this year?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Evans, Sastre and Vino, who've just come off an insanely tough Giro, to beat a rested up Sánchez (who beat Evans in the Vuelta last year)? Nibali isn't likely to ride the Tour; he's asked not to.

 

[M Sport]

menchov is useless, top 20 at best.

Haha

With 3 GT wins it could be argued he is one of the better active GT riders. Certainly he's not going to beat Contador, or Schleck but he's going to be up near the sharp end of the field. Especially after not doing the Giro and concentrating all his 'resources' on one race.

 

[Thee_chisa]

Wiggins second?

You do realise there isn't a TTT and they're actually including a few mountains this year?

yeah, so does he, he is preparing for this race all year. wait and see. if nibali doesn't ride substitute basso for him. the tour is a lot harder than all the other races, it is quicker and more fiercely competed. menchov has been lacking ever tour he has raced.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

So therefore, sub in yet another rider who's just come off one of the hardest GTs in years, because they'll be SO fresh for the Tour, which has a faster average speed and a stronger field of competition...

Oh yea, and Basso was another of those riders who Sánchez beat in the Vuelta last year.

 

[Thee_chisa]

i bet you sanchez doesn't get a top 10

 

[ScottyMuser]

yeah, so does he, he is preparing for this race all year. wait and see. if nibali doesn't ride substitute basso for him. the tour is a lot harder than all the other races, it is quicker and more fiercely competed. menchov has been lacking ever tour he has raced.

How is the TDF this year harder to race as an individual than the Giro? Yes, the pace is faster, but to come top 10 you don't really need to go into breaks, you just have to sit it in the bunch (not that strenuous with a team like Rabo will be taking) and make sure you keep in the top riders in the last climbs, which Menchov easily can (apart from going *downhill* as h many can agree). To *win*/podium it, or have you team control the race in order fo you to do s, yes, thats probably a little harder. But top 10? No
And arguing Menchov has been lacking in every tour is showing pretty much zero knowledge of any tour before last year. He came 5th in 2006, 4th in 2008 - hardly "lacking" as you are arguing, and with a weaker team in both than this year (with the likes of Ten Dams and Gesink, Rabo will have a pretty decent back up squad for him if he is in form). And last year he WON the Giro ahead of 1 confirmed (Di Luca), and 1 suspected (Pelizotti), which took it out of him for the tour (which wasn't helped by a team who couldn't go round corners in the TTT)

 

[Thee_chisa]

in 2006 he was up against a really weak tour field which allows a group to get a load of time and then allows and individual up the road to get even more time, 2008 was one of the weakest fields in memory, sastre won for god's sake!

again, i bet menchov is hovering around 20th before he pulls out.

the tour is harder than the giro for these reasons - contador, schlecks, armstrong, leipheimer, etc,etc. and couple with that the fact that is the the grand tour everyone wants to win. i love the giro but apart from contador where have the other giro winners finished recently?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

But the point has long been that doing the Giro then the Tour is far more difficult than the Tour then the Vuelta because of the higher pace. Saying that the Giro winners haven't done well at the Tour therefore the Tour is harder is disingenuous, because winning the Giro usually makes you too tired to do the Tour. The last person to do well at both was Menchov in 2008, and before that Cunego in 2006 - and even then the Little Prince didn't make the top 10.

So if you're saying that doing the Giro then the Tour is so ridiculously difficult, you're then spitting in the face of your own argument that Evans, Vino, Basso and Sastre will finish the Tour ahead of Sánchez and Menchov.

And Leipheimer? Gimme a break. If they put enough ITT kms in so that he has a chance to win Cancellara will smoke him. He couldn't even win the race that his season was built for and that modified its parcours specifically with the intention of making sure nobody beat him.

 

[Thee_chisa]

we'll see

 

[blaxland]

From my observations it almost seems that everyone who is considered a GC contender for the TDF has either Blown their load for the Giro (nibali,basso,Evans,Wiggo,Sastre,Vino) or isnt looking to be in that great of form (schleck,LA). So it almost seems to me that all these contenders are scheduling their season goals around the TDFor peaked already (bottle). Why is it that there is no one really saying they want the TDF win this year. IS AC that unbeatable but no one says it out loud. Is everyone just racing for podium spots?

Contador is so far ahead of the rest that he would have to crash,get sick or get suspended to loose this TDF......And Schleck,Nibali and Menchov will make up the Minor places some minutes behind the king....Evans,Basso ,Vino,sastre and Wiggins wont have much left in the tank to be competitive come july....Gesink for the mountains jersey o/all.

 

[ScottyMuser]

in 2006 he was up against a really weak tour field which allows a group to get a load of time and then allows and individual up the road to get even more time, 2008 was one of the weakest fields in memory, sastre won for god's sake!

again, i bet menchov is hovering around 20th before he pulls out.

the tour is harder than the giro for these reasons - contador, schlecks, armstrong, leipheimer, etc,etc. and couple with that the fact that is the the grand tour everyone wants to win. i love the giro but apart from contador where have the other giro winners finished recently?

Armstrong, Levi? Really? Armstrong may be forced into not taking oart, and if he does is too old, Levi has never really struck me as anyone more capable than a top 5 in a weak field and too old (Menchov last year in the Giro for instance, with Levi clearly being the hope for Astana with pretty much as good a team as RS can throw behind him minus Kloeden easily beat him). Yes Contador and Schleck are the 2 strongest riders out there; but I would easily rate Menchov alongside the likes of Nibali, F Schleck, sastre, Kloden (if RS put their weight behind him not lance from start) and ahead of Levi, Wiggins, Evan, Armstrong, Vino in terms of posirtion he has the potential to achieve if he turns up in form.

As to where the recent Giro winners have come - shall we have a look? Basso has 2 podiums in the TDF in strong fields (both times winner being lance, with ulrich in 3rd once, and kloden 2nd in another); Contadr has 2 TDF win, Menchov not really peaked at the tour before (unlike this year) and still decent palmares, Di Luca withdrew from at least 1 TDFF due to serious injury/disease, Salvodelli always rode (if he did, can't remember each year) in support of 1 of Ulrich and Kloden (and got them onto podiums).

 

[Thee_chisa]

Armstrong, Levi? Really? Armstrong may be forced into not taking oart, and if he does is too old, Levi has never really struck me as anyone more capable than a top 5 in a weak field and too old (Menchov last year in the Giro for instance, with Levi clearly being the hope for Astana with pretty much as good a team as RS can throw behind him minus Kloeden easily beat him). Yes Contador and Schleck are the 2 strongest riders out there; but I would easily rate Menchov alongside the likes of Nibali, F Schleck, sastre, Kloden (if RS put their weight behind him not lance from start) and ahead of Levi, Wiggins, Evan, Armstrong, Vino in terms of posirtion he has the potential to achieve if he turns up in form.

As to where the recent Giro winners have come - shall we have a look? Basso has 2 podiums in the TDF in strong fields (both times winner being lance, with ulrich in 3rd once, and kloden 2nd in another); Contadr has 2 TDF win, Menchov not really peaked at the tour before (unlike this year) and still decent palmares, Di Luca withdrew from at least 1 TDFF due to serious injury/disease, Salvodelli always rode (if he did, can't remember each year) in support of 1 of Ulrich and Kloden (and got them onto podiums).

i said discounting contador. looking at your other evidence you have made my point to me.

 

[ScottyMuser]

i said discounting contador. looking at your other evidence you have made my point to me.

So Basso's 2 podiums don't count? Or the fact that Salvodelli always a supporting rider, never a main rider, means that he never achieved at the tour and therefore Menchov won't. You've not named ONE rider who I would consider to be a better GT rider *this year, with form/fitness taking into consideration* outside of contador and schelck, then argue because in the past people who have won the giro haven't won the tour (mainly due to lance's 7 wins not letting anyone else in, let alone people who realiseds,e there were other races in the year) - let alone nearly TWENTY. Yes, menchov will have a bad day, he always does, mainly due to bike handling. But the lack of a TTT, and the comparative lack of flat ITT miles means the likes of Wiggins, Evans (if fit), Levi, Kloden, Lance, VDV won't pull out enough of an advantage to counter any poor days they encounter. Note, I am NOT saying he will be podium, just that he will, barring injuries silly falls, be easily a top 10 rider, battling for 5th.

 

[Thee_chisa]

menchov always has a bad day in the mountains, and he falls off a lot. he is not a contender

 

[Ferminal]

menchov is useless, top 20 at best, valverde is out, sanchez is always talked up but does nothing (and that won't change this year 12th i reckon) i predict cantador, wiggins, andy schleck, armstrong in that order, unless contador gets suspended.

Menchov is useless? The same Menchov who beat Di Luca in the 2009 Giro? The same Menchov who was arguably the strongest in the 2008 Tour? The same Menchov who has won two Vueltas? Sanchez, who finished a minute behind Valverde in the Vuelta, ahead of Evans?

Yet in the same sentence, you manage to talk up Andy Schleck who is still performing on the same level as he was in the 2007 Giro. Wiggins who has only performed in a GT once and Armstrong who has shown nothing since 2005.

All the names mentioned above will be strong competitors, I'm not sure how separate them so easily... What has Wiggins done that Sanchez hasn't, when has Armstrong shown he can win another GT, when has Schleck shown he can TT on the level required? None of them match Contador, but all of them are strong contenders for 2nd-5th.

 

[flicker]

something like this

1, conta
2, wiggo
3, schleck, a
4, armstrong
5, schleck,f
6, evans
7, sastre
8, vino
9, nibali
10, leipheimer
11, vande velde
12, sanchez
etc

I like this better. Armstrong Kloeden Wiggins or Kloeden wiggins armstrong.
F shleck contador banned. Basso nibali 4 +5 Levi in broom wagon!

 

[santacruz]

He explained that the Giro had been a hard race but success has galvanised him and made him believe he can now take on Alberto Contador at the Tour de France in July.

Yeah because if you can beat Cuddles you can beat AC!!! wait.. what??

dude has been drinking too much gigantic bubbly.

 

[ScottyMuser]

I like this better. Armstrong Kloeden Wiggins or Kloeden wiggins armstrong.
F shleck contador banned. Basso nibali 4 +5 Levi in broom wagon!

Armstrong top 3? Have you been on the sauce? Contador banned? why? He has FAR less sucispicion around him than Armmstrong and Levi. Basso 4th after just winning the hardest GT for years? F Shleck banned? Again, for what, his cleaner (in termsd of rumours) than even Evans. Even if he is banned what about A Schleck, who, apart from the TT (which won't play as much a role than this year) is clearly MILES better than any of the names you mentioned as a GT rider and someone for the mountains. Kloden allowed to be RS number 1 man ahead of armstrong?

Top 5 will be more like
Contador
A Shcleck
F Schleck
Sanchez
Kreuzeiger/Menchov

 

[ireland]

I'm looking forward to seeing Joaquin Rodriguez race for himself at the tour for once (don't know if he'll be Katushas primary rider at TDF though).
Also guys like Lulu Sanchez and Gesink could cause some damage and will along with Vande Velde be potential top5-10 riders.

Joaquin Rodriguez will be one of the two captains of Katusha and will be interesting to see what he can do by riding for himself. I think top 10 would be great for him. The only concern about Rodriguez performance are long TT.

If he isn't I don't know who else will be. I reckon they'll be going for stages mainly (apart from Rodriguez's GT). Was disappointed, but not surprised, by Karpets at the Giro.

Karpets will be another captain for Katusha. He used Giro as preparation and must to do a lot better at Tour as mountains won't be so steep. Also long TT suits better Karpets.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Rodríguez' TT is vastly improved, at least over relatively short distances. He did well in the Catalunya prologue and in the bumpy TT at País Vasco. I would expect him to lose a couple minutes in the Tour's TTs at least, but his climbing could put him up in the top 10 if he can show the form he had in March and April again. He managed two Vuelta top 10s whilst never once having the team working around him.

 

[Potomac]

Add Mick Rogers to the list, he's been having a good year. He's got a chance to crack the top 5 in a GT for the first time.

I've been fooled too many times by the Rogers hype.