He's coming home!!!! Alejandro Valverde comeback thread.

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What will Valverde's impact be the cycling world in 2012

  • Nuclear Holocoust

    Votes: 8 100.0%

  • Total voters
    8
Re: Re:

Amazinmets87 said:
Koronin said:
Amazinmets87 said:
Assuming Bala grabs red what tactics can we expect from Movistar? Sending Quintana up the road early and forcing GC men to mark him while Bala sits on wheels seems a good plan of action. With a high placed GC wild card to play Valverde shouldn't have his nose in the wind for a second on finishing climbs.
Great question. If Bala takes red, his best defense is to just sit in wheels. The only rider he will likely need to worry about will be Yates due to what the time gaps most likely will be.

Yup. I think Quintana performing well in the ITT is pivotal. He has to be close in order to force GC rivals to mark his attacks.

The only way this backfires is if Yates drops Valverde in pursuit of Quintana. In this case I suppose the plan would be for Quintana to wait and work with Valverde.
1. There are many different scenario's if Valverde takes red, in regards to gap size, how close Quintana is and how close Yates and MAL are.

2. The finish on wednesday is brutally steep and shouldn't actually be super tactical. Having red after Oiz matters more than red after the ITT. Anyone have a more detailed profile of that climb?

3. A lot depends on if Quintana will be ahead or behind MAL on the stage to Andorra. If he's ahead and good in Andorra, MAL might go long, in which case Quintana can just wheel suck MAL all day. If Quintana is behind MAL or bad that is a great way to waste the best possible domestique

4. MAL and Yates have been highly preoccupied with Quintana. If they stop worrying about Quintana tactics will change dramatically.

5. MAL and maybe even Pinot may be wildcards who don't have a big chance to win but may decide the outcome. If Pinot has a great day in Andorra I don't see him sitting on his ass all day.

6. Team strength. As much as Mitchelton has refused to do the work, they had 3 riders in the top 15 yesterday. Jack Haig was 15th and is solid on that level, while Adam Yates was 13th and is finally finding his form. He should be climbing on top 10 level in the crucial stages

7. Vincenzo Nibali training day may or may not strongly interfere with GC favorites plans in Andorra


As for overall stage tactics. I expect Astana to put in the work to track down breakaways cause MAL can't really miss out on bonifications at the finish line if he's the strongest. And if he isn't the strongest, he's not gonna win anyway. Only expect a break to win on La Rabassa, unless MTWN starts shining again
 
Re:

hammerthaim said:
Does the stage with multiple peaks around the 2000m mark hamper Valverde at all? Or will he be okay with this altitude?
Generally Valverde isn't great at altitude, and he has a larger chance of cracking, but it's not like he's guaranteed to be bad on high altitude stages and the Andorra stage isn't all that high. He's done some good stages at high altitude as well, like the last Giro mountain stage of 2016, but he's definitely a bit more inconsistent.

I think the bigger problem for him is that he's getting dropped on almost every MTF rather than altitude.
 
Re: Re:

Red Rick said:
hammerthaim said:
Does the stage with multiple peaks around the 2000m mark hamper Valverde at all? Or will he be okay with this altitude?
Generally Valverde isn't great at altitude, and he has a larger chance of cracking, but it's not like he's guaranteed to be bad on high altitude stages and the Andorra stage isn't all that high. He's done some good stages at high altitude as well, like the last Giro mountain stage of 2016, but he's definitely a bit more inconsistent.

I think the bigger problem for him is that he's getting dropped on almost every MTF rather than altitude.
2,000 metres isn't all that high. The Tour and Giro go 2,700+ metres. He should be fine the way he seems to be riding at the moment. Obviously in huge form. For someone who couldn't stand Valverde as recently as 6 months ago I gotta say I am almost a convert. Respect is the word I am looking for.
 
Re: Re:

Red Rick said:
hammerthaim said:
Does the stage with multiple peaks around the 2000m mark hamper Valverde at all? Or will he be okay with this altitude?
Generally Valverde isn't great at altitude, and he has a larger chance of cracking, but it's not like he's guaranteed to be bad on high altitude stages and the Andorra stage isn't all that high. He's done some good stages at high altitude as well, like the last Giro mountain stage of 2016, but he's definitely a bit more inconsistent.

I think the bigger problem for him is that he's getting dropped on almost every MTF rather than altitude.
In my opinion his problem is more a mixture of factor, not only altitude but also the lenght of the stage and the number of climbs, last stage of Giro 2016 where he did well was pretty short whereas he cracked in the 200+ kms dolomitic marathon with six passes.
A 100 kms stage i doubt will be a problem for him, the only problem could be if raced in a chaotic way because he use to wait when there are long range attack.

Anyway after that triptique of MTF the hype for him is sharply increasing even if the annoyng Quintana yesterday still acted as he was the only leader.
If he can still ride a TT at the pre injury level he'll gain at least 30"+ on everyone around him in the GC, there are Uran and Pinot that occasionally put out great TT but are already around two minutes down.
 
Re: Re:

Nirvana said:
Red Rick said:
hammerthaim said:
Does the stage with multiple peaks around the 2000m mark hamper Valverde at all? Or will he be okay with this altitude?
Generally Valverde isn't great at altitude, and he has a larger chance of cracking, but it's not like he's guaranteed to be bad on high altitude stages and the Andorra stage isn't all that high. He's done some good stages at high altitude as well, like the last Giro mountain stage of 2016, but he's definitely a bit more inconsistent.

I think the bigger problem for him is that he's getting dropped on almost every MTF rather than altitude.
In my opinion his problem is more a mixture of factor, not only altitude but also the lenght of the stage and the number of climbs, last stage of Giro 2016 where he did well was pretty short whereas he cracked in the 200+ kms dolomitic marathon with six passes.
A 100 kms stage i doubt will be a problem for him, the only problem could be if raced in a chaotic way because he use to wait when there are long range attack.

Anyway after that triptique of MTF the hype for him is sharply increasing even if the annoyng Quintana yesterday still acted as he was the only leader.
If he can still ride a TT at the pre injury level he'll gain at least 30"+ on everyone around him in the GC, there are Uran and Pinot that occasionally put out great TT but are already around two minutes down.
Agree. I actually think Monte Oiz will be the most problmatic stage for Valverde, the Andorra stages arent that hard honestly and he has a good team for the last one to La Gallina, both to defend a potential jersey or attack. They are finally acknowledging that Valverde is co-cåptain now, not that it probably chances too much.
 
It's really important though how big gaps are and who needs time on who.

In Andorra, it's attack on the Beixalis or gtfo, but after a few Andorra stages in the Vuelta and Tour, I've really come to hate the Comella. Useless sh*tstain of a climb that's always penultimate, never any good use and always preventing earlier attacks.

I actually expect there to be no breakaway by the time they're climbing Beixalis for the 2nd time, and Covadonga showed there are huge differences between the top 6 climbers in the race and the rest of the pack.

If Yates has the lead, I think Valverde is actually be the better choice on a longer range attack.

An annoying interference may be if Mas or Kruijswijk gets dropped and say Pinot starts riding for a top 5 place.
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Nirvana said:
Red Rick said:
hammerthaim said:
Does the stage with multiple peaks around the 2000m mark hamper Valverde at all? Or will he be okay with this altitude?
Generally Valverde isn't great at altitude, and he has a larger chance of cracking, but it's not like he's guaranteed to be bad on high altitude stages and the Andorra stage isn't all that high. He's done some good stages at high altitude as well, like the last Giro mountain stage of 2016, but he's definitely a bit more inconsistent.

I think the bigger problem for him is that he's getting dropped on almost every MTF rather than altitude.
In my opinion his problem is more a mixture of factor, not only altitude but also the lenght of the stage and the number of climbs, last stage of Giro 2016 where he did well was pretty short whereas he cracked in the 200+ kms dolomitic marathon with six passes.
A 100 kms stage i doubt will be a problem for him, the only problem could be if raced in a chaotic way because he use to wait when there are long range attack.

Anyway after that triptique of MTF the hype for him is sharply increasing even if the annoyng Quintana yesterday still acted as he was the only leader.
If he can still ride a TT at the pre injury level he'll gain at least 30"+ on everyone around him in the GC, there are Uran and Pinot that occasionally put out great TT but are already around two minutes down.
Agree. I actually think Monte Oiz will be the most problmatic stage for Valverde, the Andorra stages arent that hard honestly and he has a good team for the last one to La Gallina, both to defend a potential jersey or attack. They are finally acknowledging that Valverde is co-cåptain now, not that it probably chances too much.
How did you manage to hit the å button instead of a? They are pretty far from each other...
 
Re: Re:

tobydawq said:
Valv.Piti said:
Absolutely no clue.

I can't remember I have looked so much forward to a TT like tomorrow...
It's a good thing Valverde will start after Quintana and not the other way around, or Rolf would suggest that Valverde wait for Quintana, fivinf him a target to ride after.
I've actually gotten to a point where I can't take him seriously as an analyst anymore. Its so *** horrible. I really dislike him.
 
Don Alejandro is riding superbly this Vuelta- even doing super delux domestique work for Nairo while stayin in contention. Given what has taken place, IF the Don is in red after the ITT, then Quintana should rightly give up his ambitions in order to help Alejandro to reach Madrid with the overall won.
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
tobydawq said:
Valv.Piti said:
Absolutely no clue.

I can't remember I have looked so much forward to a TT like tomorrow...
It's a good thing Valverde will start after Quintana and not the other way around, or Rolf would suggest that Valverde wait for Quintana, fivinf him a target to ride after.
I've actually gotten to a point where I can't take him seriously as an analyst anymore. Its so **** horrible. I really dislike him.
I read quite a lot of Emil Axelgaard's analyses and live updates (not his previews, I don't have time for that), and I think everything pales a bit in comparison. Therefore, I tend not to expect too much of the commentators, and I think Rolf has a lot of good qualities and he remains one of my favourite commentators. But his constant "Valverde can't win the Vuelta" mantra seems a bit ridiculous now.
 
Jun 27, 2013
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Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
tobydawq said:
Valv.Piti said:
Absolutely no clue.

I can't remember I have looked so much forward to a TT like tomorrow...
It's a good thing Valverde will start after Quintana and not the other way around, or Rolf would suggest that Valverde wait for Quintana, fivinf him a target to ride after.
I've actually gotten to a point where I can't take him seriously as an analyst anymore. Its so **** horrible. I really dislike him.
I just remember his riding days.

Best sprinter in the group, wins bunch sprints? Attack constantly, wear yourself out, have nothing left for the sprint.

Over and over. It was maddening how he threw away wins consistently
 
If Valverde do can do a good pre crash TT he has the red at the end of the day.

Nice to see that they are finally acknowledging that Valverde is co leader.

Funny comment from the press conference today. Mr Unzue said that Valverde is not Indurain. LOL, um yeah no kidding. Indurain would put 2 minutes into most of the GC field in this type on this type of TT course.

Looking forward to this 3rd week. Unfortunately we have a hurricane headed right at us (it's headed for Wilmington, NC and I'm about a little over an hour's drive north of Wilmington). I'm hoping it just heads through and we don't lose power for too long as I'd actually like to watch the stages Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
 
Re:

dusty red roads said:
Gosh, stay safe, it looks like a big one! I hope you're not in low lying areas.

Thanks. It's huge. They're saying we'll start feeling tropical force winds sometimes on Wednesday, while the storm won't hit until Thursday evening.

We're not. We're about a half hour inland from coast, and not in a flood zone. Flood zones should end up with at least voluntary evacuations. Right now the only mandatory ones are on the Outer banks. Topsail has mandatory evacs starting I think Wednesday (might be Tuesday). I'm definitely working the next two days, we'll see about Thursday. Managers (I'm a vendor) have said not to work if the weather gets to bad.
 
Re:

Squire said:
Unfortunately it looks like the story of his GT career post-ban continues. Heading for another podium without ever threatening to win.
You can say that, but he has been quite close a couple of times IMO. In the mythical 2012 Vuelta he lost +1 minute early on and could never recover, but overall he could've won just as easily as Purito and Contador. He was super strong. And I'd say he was pretty close in the Giro, all it took was 10 seconds more on the downhill from Agnello and Nibali wouldn't have dropped him on Risoul which equals win, most likely.

He probably wont win this one either, but stranger things have happened and the Andorra stage could come in handy. Problem is Adam Yates is riding into form and Haig isn't bad either, so he wont be isolated easily.
 

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