How does a classics rider win the Tour?

[dolophonic]

Does the UCI know that Armstrong was riding at over 50% for his Tour wins?

Just because he was riding "over 50%" does not mean he was testing that way.
There are methods used to manipulate.

 

[thehog]

Just because he was riding "over 50%" does not mean he was testing that way.
There are methods used to manipulate.

You're confusing the UCI 50% health test with the testing of prohibited substances. They're both very different tests and treated much different from each other in terms of protocol and sanctions. The heath test is merely just that - a health test. Not a test for drugs.

 

[Benotti69]

Is there?

Prior to 2009 Wiggins was concentrating on track pursuiting at Olympic & World level. He has a 10 year long record of World's success in a discipline that is an study in applied power. But on the track there is one factor that has little effect, weight. By losing 7kg of weight with a slight loss of power he actually increased his power to weight ratio. He went from the same weight as Cancellara to 72kg. That's a significant loss of weight, approaching 10%.

Look at the 2008 Wiggins, somewhat chunkier than the one we saw in 2009 & 2010.

No wonder he was able to hang in there in 2009, no one really took him seriously until it was too late to really jettison him.

and look at his performances in GT's since 2009

 

[La Pandera]

Armstrong finished on the podium in the 96 Paris Nice. Its not the Tour, but theres a strong correlation between sucess in Paris Nice and being a Tour contender come July.

There is also a strong correlation between being a world road race champion at a young age and becoming a tour contender.

Before world war 3 breaks out, this isnt a suggestion that Armstrong is clean, just that his GT ability didn't suddenly appear at the same time as this wonder drug.

Rinaldo Nocentini also finished on the Paris-Nice podium. No one has ever talked him up as a potential Tour contender.

 

[La Pandera]

I'm sure Lance doped. Really no question in my mind. Forgetting about the climbing side, the drastic change in time trial ability stands out more then anything.

But I don't consider the ability to go from classics to being able to ride well in GT's outisde the ordinary at the time. Yeah, many of the others were probably drug aided as well, but it is what it is.

If classics specialists like Moreno Argentin or Sean Kelly can finish on the podium of a GT, I don't think Lance's turning into a GT contender is totally unheard of.

Being able to go from doing well in short-steep climbs like LBL to be able to handle longer climbs is not as ridiculous to me as doing that while improving by huge margins in flat ITT's.

...but to go from what he was to dominating everyone and all in the mountains of the Tour is quite drastic improvement. One would have to be a bit suspicious of such radical change in performance.

 

[Benotti69]

...but to go from what he was to dominating everyone and all in the mountains of the Tour is quite drastic improvement. One would have to be a bit suspicious of such radical change in performance.

David Walsh was on the 1999 tour and remembers the underlying feeling from Journlists about what they were seeing from Armstrong ann the knowing looks about what they were seeing.

its one of the things he talks about on here;

http://competitorradio.competitor.com/?s=walsh

 

[andy1234]

Rinaldo Nocentini also finished on the Paris-Nice podium. No one has ever talked him up as a potential Tour contender.

8 days in yellow and 14th overall in 2009 isn't too shabby.
He's a podium finisher in PN and hes had a very respectable TDF finish, hardly a damning counter argument.
There are obviously exceptions to the rule but a podium finish in Paris Nice is statistically a good measure of TDF potential.

 

[ultimobici]

and look at his performances in GT's since 2009

As he said himself at the 2010 Tour

"Obviously I fell into superb form. I was riding on cloud nine most of the race. Last year was a bit of a fluke. It was a fluke in the sense it wasn't planned."

Everything fell into place. Shorter course, less mountainous and, most importantly, no target on his back.

Scroll forward to 2010 with Sky and Wiggins was already on everyone's radar, had a longer course with a more aggressive course and the pressure that team leadership brought.

 

[Benotti69]

Rinaldo Nocentini also finished on the Paris-Nice podium. No one has ever talked him up as a potential Tour contender.

strangely enough and plenty of people don't believe this but no one talked up Pharmstrong as a tour contender either.

 

[Benotti69]

As he said himself at the 2010 Tour

Wiggins has said a lot of conflicting things over the last few years.

"Obviously I fell into superb form. I was riding on cloud nine most of the race. Last year was a bit of a fluke. It was a fluke in the sense it wasn't planned."

Cloud nine in bike racing parlance tends to mean something else

Everything fell into place. Shorter course, less mountainous and, most importantly, no target on his back.

Scroll forward to 2010 with Sky and Wiggins was already on everyone's radar, had a longer course with a more aggressive course and the pressure that team leadership brought.

i dont see how having a target on his back meant a worse performance. he didn't attack to be chased down?

 

[ultimobici]

No, its not futile . Paris Nice has always been a testing ground for tour contenders, so in order to compete,'you have to be on a par with tour contenders.
Regardless off the terrain, number of stages in PN etc etc, the stats dont lie.

Paris Nice has always been an important race but it is not in any way shape or form an indicator of GT potential on its own. If one looks at other riders who have gone on to win big on the GT stage one has to consider the Dauphine, Romandie, Switzerland as well as the Tour.

Armstrong had a flash in 1993 with 9th, which one can put down more to being an unknown. He didn't figure in the race again until 1995 when he had his stage win. By then he was working with Ferrari so no wonder there!

But looking at the pattern of racing in P-N the thing that strikes me is that the time gaps are always small. The stages are not as long as the Tour, nor are they as severe.

That Kelly won 7 in a row but never the Tour is not that surprising to me. His 4th in the 85 Tour may have been as a result of the way that the race was that year. I also think that the Vuelta cannot be looked at as a Tour indicator especially when prior to 1995.

 

[ultimobici]

Wiggins has said a lot of conflicting things over the last few years.




Cloud nine in bike racing parlance tends to mean something else



i dont see how having a target on his back meant a worse performance. he didn't attack to be chased down?

The target is probably a minuscule part of it I agree!

Difference is I speak the same language as him, English English.

 

[Benotti69]

Paris Nice has always been an important race but it is not in any way shape or form an indicator of GT potential on its own. If one looks at other riders who have gone on to win big on the GT stage one has to consider the Dauphine, Romandie, Switzerland as well as the Tour.

Armstrong had a flash in 1993 with 9th, which one can put down more to being an unknown. He didn't figure in the race again until 1995 when he had his stage win. By then he was working with Ferrari so no wonder there!

But looking at the pattern of racing in P-N the thing that strikes me is that the time gaps are always small. The stages are not as long as the Tour, nor are they as severe.

That Kelly won 7 in a row but never the Tour is not that surprising to me. His 4th in the 85 Tour may have been as a result of the way that the race was that year. I also think that the Vuelta cannot be looked at as a Tour indicator especially when prior to 1995.

Sean Kelly won the PN because he always had form for it. He always trained over the winter, the weather never bothered him being Irish and a farmer's son. Kelly always won the Christmas hamper race put on in Ireland on Xmas/Boxing day by his local amateur club, Waterford wheelers. Now you may think that's nothing special, amateurs, but a lot riders trained hard to beat Kelly and it got to be a very big race in Ireland for a few years when Kelly was at his peak, 10+years or so.

in case you misinterpret, i am explaining why Kelly had good legs in PN, not having a pop.

 

[Benotti69]

The target is probably a minuscule part of it I agree!

Difference is I speak the same language as him, English English.

so does i guvnor, but maybe your understanding of it is different than mine

 

[andy1234]

That Kelly won 7 in a row but never the Tour is not that surprising to me. His 4th in the 85 Tour may have been as a result of the way that the race was that year. I also think that the Vuelta cannot be looked at as a Tour indicator especially when prior to 1995.

So let me get this right. Kelly is AGAIN being used as an example???

So your saying that winning a GT is not a good indicator of being a good tour rider???

Also finishing 4th in a tour where the first 3 have 9 TDF victories between them isn't either???

Jeez you guys are hard to impress.

 

[ultimobici]

Sean Kelly won the PN because he always had form for it. He always trained over the winter, the weather never bothered him being Irish and a farmer's son. Kelly always won the Christmas hamper race put on in Ireland on Xmas/Boxing day by his local amateur club, Waterford wheelers. Now you may think that's nothing special, amateurs, but a lot riders trained hard to beat Kelly and it got to be a very big race in Ireland for a few years when Kelly was at his peak, 10+years or so.

in case you misinterpret, i am explaining why Kelly had good legs in PN, not having a pop.

I was in Carrick-on-Suir in 1999 to race the Hamper Race. Unfortunately I needed an international licence to start so couldn't race.

But, despite retiring 5 years earlier, Kelly was riding and won the bunch sprint for 4th on a day that was so cold they had to delay the start for 3 hours to let the ice thaw! I seem to remember the winner being Ciaran Power who was about to turn pro with Linda McCartney.

 

[ultimobici]

So let me get this right. Kelly is AGAIN being used as an example???

So your saying that winning a GT is not a good indicator of being a good tour rider???

Also finishing 4th in a tour where the first 3 have 9 TDF victories between them isn't either???

Jeez you guys are hard to impress.

Not at all.

To compare the 80's Vuelta with the TdF & Giro is nonsensical, IMO. The field was largely Spanish and Kelly had the advantage of being a strongman on a Spanish team. its position on the calendar skewed the field too. Kelly would have come in to it off the Classics, so with excellent form. looking at his 88 Classics results one can see that he was up there but maybe not quite at full form. He likely came into the Vuelta "on a mission" to get a win.

As far as the Tour result is concerned, pre EPO a top rider could consider a crack at the Tour because the whole peloton rode the whole season. Every one of the riders in the top 5 rode to win in both the spring Classics and the autumn Classics as well as contending the GTs. While it was a stretch for Kelly or his type of rider to win the Tour, it was a possibility if the main contenders stuffed up. Come EPO and specialisation that was an impossible pipe-dream. From 1991 onwards the hierarchy was turned on its head, Indurain, Riis, Armstrong would not have won in a million years had it not been for supercharged blood.

 

[andy1234]

Not at all.

To compare the 80's Vuelta with the TdF & Giro is nonsensical, IMO. The field was largely Spanish and Kelly had the advantage of being a strongman on a Spanish team. its position on the calendar skewed the field too. Kelly would have come in to it off the Classics, so with excellent form. looking at his 88 Classics results one can see that he was up there but maybe not quite at full form. He likely came into the Vuelta "on a mission" to get a win.

As far as the Tour result is concerned, pre EPO a top rider could consider a crack at the Tour because the whole peloton rode the whole season. Every one of the riders in the top 5 rode to win in both the spring Classics and the autumn Classics as well as contending the GTs. While it was a stretch for Kelly or his type of rider to win the Tour, it was a possibility if the main contenders stuffed up. Come EPO and specialisation that was an impossible pipe-dream. From 1991 onwards the hierarchy was turned on its head, Indurain, Riis, Armstrong would not have won in a million years had it not been for supercharged blood.

I couldn't agree less.
Results are the only metric that matters. Kelly had them in several GTs, hence he just strengthens the PN statistic.

 

[Microchip]

Originally Posted by Big Doopie
it really is amazing. literally everything the logical people here for years have said happened:

1. He blood doped.
2. He paid off the uci
3. He used ferrari to gain doping advantage throughout all his winning years and even his comeback
4. He had access to an undetectable drug no one else did

the fanboys have ridiculed all these points over the years.

and yet they all turn out to be true.

it really brings into question whether armstrong could even have been an average pro rider without the above.

the greatest sports fraud in history...

now who said that before...who?

Plus I think he had the resources (at least 01 and beyond) to hire the talent, a la heras, (one less guy to chase in the mountains and that will be indeed better than most of the captains of other teams) as much as I hate to admit it, the guy either was very lucky in the order of things he did/got/hire/fired or let's face it wicked smart, the other factor was that in his days the only one capable of sustaining some competition was Ulle, and Ulle unfortunately sometimes didn't have the heart sometimes.

I was wondering what other avenues can help a person be assured of first place. For example, I recall either reading (maybe in Lance to Landis) or it could have been listening to one of the interviews over at Competitor Radio, where a rider rode alongside another one (not his team mate) and offered to help him win for $10,000.00.