How good would you have to be to win the Tour undoped?

[BroDeal]

So true.

BPC is clearly a genius who intellect is wasted on this forum. He should find a place where his knowledge is appreciated, instead of ridiculed.

Let us know when you two find this place of higher thinking, we will be sure not to visit.

We need to push the mods to look up IP addresses and IP ban those with sock puppets. This really is getting ridiculous.

We then need to get rid of this drive-by-trolling exampled by oldnell or forty-four, who make posts along the lines of, "How dare you think that so many are doping. Why don't you all just stop watching cycling? blah blah blah." Those posts add zero content.

 

[davidg]

Is this the right room for an argument?

Moderators - seems like the discussion has finished.

Reminds me of this http://www.mindspring.com/~mfpatton/sketch.htm

 

[pedaling squares]

I'll stick to the original question. I say you'd have to be one of the very best cyclists in the past 30 yrs to win le Tour clean. Look at the podium placers for the last few years. Landis & Kohl, nuff said. Contador, Armstrong, Menchov... all suspect. Sastre, A. Schleck, hard to trust anyone on the Riis program (or whose brother has been linked to Fuentes). Evans... he might be clean, but look what happened this year when he faced a more talented and better organized peloton. To beat all these guys, plus Basso, Valverde etc, well you'd have to be a real freak of nature.

 

[Ferminal]

But they're micro dosing on the blood bags too. Nobody is anywhere near 50% anymore.

Yes a 600ml transfusion is "micro".

I'd hate to be the person who blood lets a "macro" dose. "Don't worry sir, we're only taking 2L of blood, you should be fine".

 

[Oldman]

I'll stick to the original question. I say you'd have to be one of the very best cyclists in the past 30 yrs to win le Tour clean. Look at the podium placers for the last few years. Landis & Kohl, nuff said. Contador, Armstrong, Menchov... all suspect. Sastre, A. Schleck, hard to trust anyone on the Riis program (or whose brother has been linked to Fuentes). Evans... he might be clean, but look what happened this year when he faced a more talented and better organized peloton. To beat all these guys, plus Basso, Valverde etc, well you'd have to be a real freak of nature.

Agree with discussing the original question. Based on direct experience; Landis is better than LA any day. Not just opinion-side by side fact. The Schlecks look like the real deal on a clean venue. Don't know enough about Menchov but Sastre can be fragile. Basso and Valverde have talent along all lines. If all of them were clean I think the race, long or short; would be between those two at this point in time.

 

[pedaling squares]

Really?

Where did he make that comment? You do realize TFF is one of your finest admirers for trollcraft? .... I am suprised you are soo sensitive.

Anyway as you pointed out on another thread best to get back on topic.

Doc, you were quiet earlier in the week. Are you Andy Schleck?

 

[WonderLance]

You are still just about the only sane person on this forum. The thing I don't understand is why you waste your time arguing with these excellence haters and conspiracy theorists. You are certainly not going to change their minds. You do get their goat a bit, which may make it worthwhile. Keep up the good work.

+1. He really is wonderful isnt he? Such a wonderful dose of truth inthis forum. They just cant handle people winning bike races, odd behaviour for a cycling forum. Thank God for BPC.

Its enough to make me wish I could meet the guy in person.

Me too

 

[Mongol_Waaijer]

Most of us don't hate excellence
Most of us don't even hate dope cheats

we do hate cheating, arrogant, immature and bullying ars*holes and their feeble minded idiotic disciples who stick their heads in the sand, their ar*es in the air and give faux-legitimacy to the biggest sporting fraud in the history of athletic competition.

 

[Krebs cycle]

+1. He really is wonderful isnt he? Such a wonderful dose of truth inthis forum. They just cant handle people winning bike races, odd behaviour for a cycling forum. Thank God for BPC.

dear me, are you like 8yrs old or something?

i've only been a member of this site for a few months, but I can already see that the clinic is place where people who believe in the honourable concept of clean sport can share and discuss knowledge. there is enthusiasm and hope in this place for a future where cheats are shown the door and we can all enjoy the spectacle of honest man against man competition instead of doctor vs doctor. this is a positive place but you and BPC bring nothing except negativity.

troll away as much as you like though, I don't care what you say because I am an expert, I do have contacts in high places in WADA and the UCI, and I know that you are wrong.

on topic, I think the performances in the tdf since the early-mid 90s are virtually impossible to achieve without doping, so IMO, I don't think it would be physiologically possible to win the tour undoped unless of course, everyone was undoped.

 

[Mongol_Waaijer]

The only motivation of people like BPC and WonderLance is to disrupt the forums to render us discinclined to post mean things about their hero.

They also want to ensure that any novice who visits the site will hear both sides of the argument - the reality side and the fantasy side.

It is nothing more than sabotage and propoganda and we should all ignore it.

Oldnell on the other hand seems genuinely odious and intolerant, but he is a pensioner who still thinks he is some sort of "amateur cyclist" so we should forgive him his delusions.

 

[elapid]

dear me, are you like 8yrs old or something?

i've only been a member of this site for a few months, but I can already see that the clinic is place where people who believe in the honourable concept of clean sport can share and discuss knowledge. there is enthusiasm and hope in this place for a future where cheats are shown the door and we can all enjoy the spectacle of honest man against man competition instead of doctor vs doctor. this is a positive place but you and BPC bring nothing except negativity.

troll away as much as you like though, I don't care what you say because I am an expert, I do have contacts in high places in WADA and the UCI, and I know that you are wrong.

on topic, I think the performances in the tdf since the early-mid 90s are virtually impossible to achieve without doping, so IMO, I don't think it would be physiologically possible to win the tour undoped unless of course, everyone was undoped.

+1 on all accounts. Oldnell may be 71 years old and delusional, but he is in the same boat as BPC and WonderLance and all should be banned if they continue to disrupt well-intentioned threads with their nonsensical babble rather than contribute in a meaningful and positive manner. Disagreeing is fine and natural, but they should do so by backing up their posts rather than spewing out continual misinformation and not directly addressing the points being argued.

And to the topic at hand, it would take a Merckx-like rider to beat any of the current riders assuming their doped to some extent. On presumed natural and undoped talent, then Valverde and Evans would be my two choices, I wouldn't discount Contador, and I think the likes of Nibali and Kreuzinger would be two to look out for in the future.

 

[Bala Verde]

On presumed natural and undoped talent, then Valverde and Evans would be my two choices, I wouldn't discount Contador, and I think the likes of Nibali and Kreuzinger would be two to look out for in the future.

Mine would be first be Contador and perhaps second already Gesink.

 

[issoisso]

Comparing the climbing powers in mountain passes now with before the EPO age, Hinault, LeMond, etc would finish many minutes behind. So, a rider would probably have to be the best climber ever to win a direct confrontation on a mountain stage.

 

[Mongol_Waaijer]

I doubt that the most talented cyclist that the human race has ever / will ever produce would have been able to hold Lance's wheel up Sestrieres in 1999 without recourse to doping.

it just makes too much difference.....

 

[WonderLance]

I doubt that the most talented cyclist that the human race has ever / will ever produce would have been able to hold Lance's wheel up Sestrieres in 1999 without recourse to doping.

look down.

 

[Mongol_Waaijer]

look down.

I doubt the honour of most talented rider ever that the human race will produce" will ever go to an arrogant one time classics specialist who got lucky in a world championship and was known as "Cortisone Neck" by his peers.

The idea that Lance is/was superhuman is nothing more than masturbation material for people who need to get out more.

 

[Mongol_Waaijer]

Okay I will try to get into the spirit of the clinic for a moment...

I'm surprised nobody here has highlighted the amount of riders that have gone out with stomach cramps in the first week. Half of Quick Step has gone, and the boy Schleck. Usually infections can play apart in the last week, but its unusual for so many to go out now.

Do you think they could be worried about the new focus on crit levels after the Denmark guy?

well done for a sensible post. Keep this up and you might redeem yourself.

I have often wondered the same - especially since almost the entire ONCE team pulled out of the vuelta in the late 90's all complaining of food poisoning from creamed rice. Other teams were staying in the same hotel and had eaten same creamed rice without getting sick.

I'll testify from own experience that stage races sap an already weakened immune system, and it's not uncommon for tourists to get infections from hotel or restuarant food - so the rate for cyclists should perhaps be higher.

Also - they nearly always start the stage and abandon midway. If you were faking it why bother starting? Surely you'd want to get the hell out asap?

Having said that - if you suspected you were about to be busted and face end of career and international disgrace i imagine the world might just fall out of your bottom...

 

[Ferminal]

Okay I will try to get into the spirit of the clinic for a moment...

I'm surprised nobody here has highlighted the amount of riders that have gone out with stomach cramps in the first week. Half of Quick Step has gone, and the boy Schleck. Usually infections can play apart in the last week, but its unusual for so many to go out now.

Do you think they could be worried about the new focus on crit levels after the Denmark guy?

Indeed, I couldn't bring myself to make a cheeky comment about it in the racing forum though! Schlecky withdrawing so he can donate?

 

[blackcat]

well done for a sensible post. Keep this up and you might redeem yourself.

I have often wondered the same - especially since almost the entire ONCE team pulled out of the vuelta in the late 90's all complaining of food poisoning from creamed rice. Other teams were staying in the same hotel and had eaten same creamed rice without getting sick.

I'll testify from own experience that stage races sap an already weakened immune system, and it's not uncommon for tourists to get infections from hotel or restuarant food - so the rate for cyclists should perhaps be higher.

Also - they nearly always start the stage and abandon midway. If you were faking it why bother starting? Surely you'd want to get the hell out asap?

Having said that - if you suspected you were about to be busted and face end of career and international disgrace i imagine the world might just fall out of your bottom...

2004 Vuelta, T-Mobile left cos of blood poisoning, errr. food poisoning. Their blood bags were off supposedly. The guys who did not have the blood, stayed in. Konecny, Evans, Zabel. Could be apocryphal ofcourse.

 

[Escarabajo]

Indeed, I couldn't bring myself to make a cheeky comment about it in the racing forum though! Schlecky withdrawing so he can donate?

I think that is also a probability.

Back on track on the Thread question. Here is a comment from Jaekob Moerkeberg, when he was discussing Lance Armstrong numbers:

AS: Bjarne Riis ended Saxo Bank's internal testing program, saying that the bio passport alone is sufficient. Do you think the bio passport is doing its job?

JM: Yes, definitely. I think it's a step in the right direction. I won't say it's perfect, but the bio passport has decreased the amount of doping you can do without being caught. It has decreased the allowed fluctuations you can have. I think it's on the right track.

AS: So doping might still exist, but not to the magnitude it used to be at? People might be cheating, but just not as much, so it might be easier for clean athletes to compete?

JM: Difficult to say, but I hope so.

IMHO I think a clean rider has "a better chance to be top ten". Looking at the blood files and the power numbers from some of the climbs, I'll say a clean rider can not win yet no matter how good you are.

Speculative VO2 max over 90 for the third week is just too high. Maybe for one day classic or one hard stage would be okay, but not for a three week tour.
My two cents.

 

[sars1981]

Contador looked pretty awesome this year. Winning the TT and pwning them through the mountains. If that was a clean effort he is quite the athlete indeed.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Yes, T Mobile 2004. Vino was riding high in the GC, then out of the back and off, along with most of the team.
Does seem to be more of a regular occurence, In Spain, for some reason.
Odd, in a country renowned for it's cuisine.

Luckily for the Mob, they had a ready made excuse, with Cadel purportedly being a "veggie". Didn't they blame the fish? Again, an oddity for Spain.

So hard to confidently named a squeaky clean rider, with the potential to win a GT, as the doping network within the pro peloton, has more branches than the average small forest.

 

[BigBoat]

The Tour de France is all bout FTP (all out 1- hour sustainble watts). Upper range for human aerobic FTP is about 5.7 watts per kilo at anything below 175 pounds.... Lemond was a total undoped freak as was Hinault and these dudes raced just before epo use started on the Tour. Lemond had an FTP at 390 watts at his absolute peak with V02 max at about 92-94 at 68 kg.

AFTER epo came out in the late 80s guys started passing out and dying in their sleep to to heart not getting enough 02. They figured out they needed to take aspirin before bed and keep their crits below 55% to stay safe. Once epo use became safe and widespread all the pros started it it and this point was about 1991-1992.

Lemond still got a 7th in the first epo Tour with no epo...Hinault and Merckx, Coppi might have been SLIGHTLY more talented then Lemond but probably not. The next year Lemond DNF'd the Tour and he never finished it again despit being in his early 30s (physiological peak). Fingon who also didnt do epo got a couple of top 30 finishes.

Blood doping with your own blood to raise crit has the exact same effect. Going to just the 50% crit limit gives some guys 20%. Lance probably gets 20%. He's clearly a very very good responder to just a slight rise in hematocrit. You'd never beat Lance if you were totally clean and he had his crit just up a little bit with blood doping. Even if you were Bernard Hinault or Merckx.

 

[Von Mises]

The Tour de France is all bout FTP (all out 1- hour sustainble watts). Upper range for human aerobic FTP is about 5.7 watts per kilo at anything below 175 pounds.... Lemond was a total undoped freak as was Hinault and these dudes raced just before epo use started on the Tour. Lemond had an FTP at 390 watts at his absolute peak with V02 max at about 92-94 at 68 kg.

Where from these numbers come? What is the source? And why Lemond, Hinault or Merckx should be used as benchmark?
I have seen very little first hand sources about FTp or VO2max of top athletes. Mostly just internet rumours. Only first hand source what I have found is about Bjorn Daehlie. Erlend Ham, Norwegian physiologist said that he measured Daehlies off season VO2max at 96, as it was off season Ham speculated that Daehlies peak Vo2max could be as high as 100.

Blood doping with your own blood to raise crit has the exact same effect. Going to just the 50% crit limit gives some guys 20%. Lance probably gets 20%. He's clearly a very very good responder to just a slight rise in hematocrit. You'd never beat Lance if you were totally clean and he had his crit just up a little bit with blood doping. Even if you were Bernard Hinault or Merckx.

Where from this 20% comes? Scientific reasearch or speculation.
Again, there is almost no research what are the effects of EPO or blood doping on performances of top athtletes.
Tucker&Dugas have reffered on EP study from 2006, what showed that 4 week EPO course raised peak power output 13%. But these were not top athletes, so Tucker&Dugas assumed that gain for top athletes would be lower.
(What was the dosage and frequence during this 4 week trial is another matter).

Lindstedt&Conley pointed that blood doping experiments on higly trained runners in mid 80-s. 3times x 500 ml blood had increase of VO2max of 6,7%. (Linsted&conleys point was actually to show that oxygen delivery and utilization capacity can be very different. Delivery increased 30% but VO2max only 6,7%).

But again, where from you get this 20%?

 

[blackcat]

Where from these numbers come? What is the source? And why Lemond, Hinault or Merckx should be used as benchmark?
I have seen very little first hand sources about FTp or VO2max of top athletes. Mostly just internet rumours. Only first hand source what I have found is about Bjorn Daehlie. Erlend Ham, Norwegian physiologist said that he measured Daehlies off season VO2max at 96, as it was off season Ham speculated that Daehlies peak Vo2max could be as high as 100.



Where from this 20% comes? Scientific reasearch or speculation.
Again, there is almost no research what are the effects of EPO or blood doping on performances of top athtletes.
Tucker&Dugas have reffered on EP study from 2006, what showed that 4 week EPO course raised peak power output 13%. But these were not top athletes, so Tucker&Dugas assumed that gain for top athletes would be lower.
(What was the dosage and frequence during this 4 week trial is another matter).

Lindstedt&Conley pointed that blood doping experiments on higly trained runners in mid 80-s. 3times x 500 ml blood had increase of VO2max of 6,7%. (Linsted&conleys point was actually to show that oxygen delivery and utilization capacity can be very different. Delivery increased 30% but VO2max only 6,7%).

But again, where from you get this 20%?

running is weight bearing

try a study in the third week of a GT.

the power profiles in Cyclismag are quite damning.

Not just looking at EPO. All androgens, growth factors, plus cortisone. Then get into more esoteric stuff for the CNS and the circulation system.

Just epo was never in Big Boat's function.