how long before Sagan trips the tripwire

[classicomano]

So whats happening here guys? 25 years old and now already heavily on the decline. Did he get a nice letter from the UCI? When he was 21/22 years old he was at some point toying with the peloton.

 

[SeriousSam]

Toned down doping regime (but why?), inadequate preparation or actual physical decline.

It sees rather doubtful at this point that he will ever enjoy the edge over his competitors he once had.

 

[doperhopper]

Re:

Toned down doping regime (but why?), inadequate preparation or actual physical decline.

It sees rather doubtful at this point that he will ever enjoy the edge over his competitors he once had.

well, it's the whole team, Clentador attacked in Volta and faded so badly he was chased down by Kiri - so either they are riding too clean (most hilarious reason to sack Mr. 64%) - or we have to resort to marginal explanations: BADZILLA! (or maybe GOODZILLA seeing how bulky Sagan looks this year). Otherwise there are only usual boring reasons like bike position, maybe Oman illness consequences, awful team atmosphere, clouds around Kreuzi (scaring the whole team to the level they begin riding sub-doped)...

 

[LaFlorecita]

Contador couldn't keep his attack going for over 2km like he can when he's in top form and was overtaken by a rider who still had a teammate on a climb with a massive headwind, yeah, something is definitely up
Contador is the only star rider on the team who is actually performing as expected.

 

[burning]

I wouldn't worry about the whole team itself too much as their first non-Contador victory was Mick's Giro stage and they went full *** for the remainder of the season.

But something is clearly wrong with Sagan, he's even worse than his neo-pro year and I think lack of doping is definitely not the main cause for that.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

There is a long-standing tradition of riders peaking young in former Ostbloc countries. It goes back way, way back, to the days of the Friedensfahrt when it was amateur so lots of riders would retire young (Aavo Pikkuus, arguably the best cyclist Estonia ever had, podiumed the Peace Race at 19, and retired at 26 to become a rally driver, for example) after being run into the ground by training and racing as young riders.

There are huge gaps culturally between a country like the Czech Republic and Slovakia and, say, Belarus, but there are still remnants of the old cycling system in terms of people who were around in those days in positions in the national authorities, trainers, race organizers etc..

It's not to say Sagan is necessarily doping, nor to say that he's not as talented as initially thought; however he had his breakout at 19, a younger age than most big stars who broke out young and never quite capitalized. Cunego was 22, for example. A lot of riders who peak later - especially thinking GC riders here - would be riding fewer race days and shorter races over those years of U23 cycling than Sagan was doing on the World Tour - around 80 race days in 2011 and 2012, then as he's got to the ages where people's workload tend to be upped, 85 in 2013, nearly 90 last year. A lot more days in the early season thanks to being dispatched to the ever-growing Middle Eastern mini-season as well.

The thing is, Sagan is still getting good results, but he's not got the same look of dominance (and this is a good thing). Is it really all that different to Cavendish losing his edge in the sprint? Suddenly there are people who think they can beat Sagan and it makes those races that used to just be his territory much more interesting. And there are huge swathes of cyclists who've peaked young, had some great results in their early 20s that make you think they're stars in the making, and then gone nowhere for a variety of reasons. Some of which there's still hope for, but some of which have results a few years ago that just make you think, where did that come from? Thomas Löfkvist, Yaroslav Popovych, Linus Gerdemann, Damiano Cunego, Andy Schleck, Vladimir Karpets, Mikhail Ignatiev, Dmytro Grabovskyy, and Sagan's countryman Peter Velits, for starters. He's not gone the way of those guys just yet, so really, no point in hitting the panic button just now.

 

[blackcat]

Re:

There is a long-standing tradition of riders peaking young in former Ostbloc countries.

coupla additions

could add Norske Boasson Hagen too
Mikhail Ignatiev
Dmytro Grabovskky


edit: LS mentioned these riders later in the post. sry

 

[blackcat]

Re:

It's not to say Sagan is necessarily doping,

ofcourse he is. they all are at the pointy end. psychology and sociology101, you dont surrender this disadvantage/advantage....
d-q pithy epigram about doping, rounding errors, marginal gains,

Cunego was 22, for example.

him too. for example.

Thomas Löfkvist, Yaroslav Popovych, Linus Gerdemann, Damiano Cunego, Andy Schleck, Vladimir Karpets, Mikhail Ignatiev, Dmytro Grabovskyy, and Sagan's countryman Peter Velits, for starters. He's not gone the way of those guys just yet, so really, no point in hitting the panic button just now.

yes, all doped too. you are clocking them up. tic-tock.

The thing is, Sagan is still getting good results, but he's not got the same look of dominance (and this is a good thing). Is it really all that different to Cavendish losing his edge in the sprint? Suddenly there are people who think they can beat Sagan

Cav partly a half metre slower (than 2011). Partly Kittell is faster. Partly, he does not bring the strongest team to deliver him to the line in the last 200m at the front. But Cav still has it, he will still compete for Green in July in the next 6 years, and he just wont clean up winning all the bunch kicks. Cav may not be the best, Kittell has that mantle. Or that crown, i prefer crown. But Cav will still win another hundred sprints before he retires.

no one mentions Cav's CdA. his frontal area, to coefficient of drag, aerodynamic drag.

two elements, less slipstream to come out of Cav's wheel, when he is out the front.

second element, Cav has a better tuck and slipstream and ride cos he is such a small aero cannonball.

in about 2010, Freire was in Cav's wheel, when Cav went long from about 300. He was in his wheel up to about 80 metres, into the WIND! So he should have been able to jump and space Cav easily. But Oscar came out of Cav's wheel, and into the wind, went backwards, and went back into Cav's slipstream. It was at the Tour, Cav 1, Oscar second on the stage. That is proof Cav is GOAT. greatest, of all time. Even with the MRS John Murphy nickname of Frodo.

 

[Dr.Guess]

So Löfqwist was doping? Didnt he write that king letter when he retired?
Sorry for The off topic but I couldnt find a thread about him.

Back to topic. I wish they start doping more until it all goes away. Sagan is an exciting rider and I miss Roberto vacchi (swedish Com.) praising him at every opportunity.

 

[blackcat]

Re:

So Löfqwist was doping? Didnt he write that king letter when he retired?
Sorry for The off topic but I couldnt find a thread about him.

Back to topic. I wish they start doping more until it all goes away. Sagan is an exciting rider and I miss Roberto vacchi (swedish Com.) praising him at every opportunity.

dont forget Ricky Riccio, he is the master

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

ofcourse he is. they all are at the pointy end. psychology and sociology101, you dont surrender this disadvantage/advantage....
d-q pithy epigram about doping, rounding errors, marginal gains,

The point was more that there's more to the decline than "clean/dirty" or "major program/minor program". What is happening with Sagan's career path may not be to do with his doping programs at all, regardless of whether he is or isn't doping.

yes, all doped too. you are clocking them up. tic-tock.

Even if they weren't, their reasons for their career paths differ though. I also made the point of not including people who have actually been busted, even though for some of them it's common knowledge they doped (Popovych especially, but also Cunego, for example). Some have not been tied to anything concrete but their career paths strongly hint doping. Gerdemann is a good example there, a coming man in 2007 at T-Mobile, and then really fell off the cliff. Part of that was to do with his injury and part of it to do with how woeful a place Milram was for rider development in its latter days, but we know T-Mobile was doping then.

It's also interesting how many of those riders who developed fast and then fell off the cliff were at the "well-reputed" Bob Stapleton HTC train of pain. Löfkvist, Gerdemann, Goss, Boasson Hagen and Velits all had top results there that they haven't even come remotely close to mimicking elsewhere. Ciolek is a strange one as well, his Sanremo win stands out like a sore thumb on his palmarès.

*aside - why did I forget Goss?*

Now, obviously a number of the ex-HTC alumni have gone on to remain strong elsewhere in the peloton - Greipel, Cavendish, Martin - but it does seem to me that their clean reputation - especially considering they formed from the ashes of the T-Mobile team.

Cav partly a half metre slower (than 2011). Partly Kittell is faster. Partly, he does not bring the strongest team to deliver him to the line in the last 200m at the front. But Cav still has it, he will still compete for Green in July in the next 6 years, and he just wont clean up winning all the bunch kicks. Cav may not be the best, Kittell has that mantle. Or that crown, i prefer crown. But Cav will still win another hundred sprints before he retires.

no one mentions Cav's CdA. his frontal area, to coefficient of drag, aerodynamic drag.

two elements, less slipstream to come out of Cav's wheel, when he is out the front.

second element, Cav has a better tuck and slipstream and ride cos he is such a small aero cannonball.

in about 2010, Freire was in Cav's wheel, when Cav went long from about 300. He was in his wheel up to about 80 metres, into the WIND! So he should have been able to jump and space Cav easily. But Oscar came out of Cav's wheel, and into the wind, went backwards, and went back into Cav's slipstream. It was at the Tour, Cav 1, Oscar second on the stage. That is proof Cav is GOAT. greatest, of all time. Even with the MRS John Murphy nickname of Frodo.

I remember back in, was it 2011? Ale-Jet beat Cav in a sprint, basically plumbing the line of what you could get away with on your line without getting DQed. Lots of Cav fans were up in arms, Cav himself had a tantrum, then later retracted it saying he got angry in the heat of the moment and upon reflection Petacchi had beaten him fair and square. I remember saying things like "in a few years Cav won't be the fastest anymore, and then he'll be the one who needs to know all the tricks Ale-Jet has", because ultimately Petacchi knows what's what, he'd been around for years, and he knew how to win when not the best. Cav at that point WAS the best, and more often than not was delivered perfectly to the line, so it didn't matter that he didn't have the tricks, because the trick he had was almost unbeatable at times. Now that he isn't the fastest it's taken him a bit of time to develop those other tricks so as to still be competitive, but all those people saying back in 2010 or so that Cav would be unbeatable for a decade because of how strong he was and how old the likes of Petacchi were when they slowed down (forgetting his reign of terror came as a late bloomer) are now being shown that actually it IS cyclical, and some new fastest kid on the block has come along and taken Cav's thunder.

That's all I meant. Sagan has had a few years of being the man on his terrain. But now there are other people coming through who can challenge him - and even beat him - on that terrain. They are no longer psychologically expecting to be beaten by him, and he is now no longer psychologically expecting to beat them.

 

[blackcat]

LS, I reckon the adrogens Sagan is taking have him too heavy, and added too much muscle for a sprinter/puncheur/classics rider.

His upper body looks like Armstrong at 23. Plus he has weightlifter legs. He needs to drop muscle weight.Far too heavy in muscle terms. A little like Jone Degenkolb, but he has leaned up a little.

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

I remember back in, was it 2011? Ale-Jet beat Cav in a sprint, basically plumbing the line of what you could get away with on your line without getting DQed. Lots of Cav fans were up in arms, Cav himself had a tantrum, then later retracted it saying he got angry in the heat of the moment and upon reflection Petacchi had beaten him fair and square. I remember saying things like "in a few years Cav won't be the fastest anymore, and then he'll be the one who needs to know all the tricks Ale-Jet has", because ultimately Petacchi knows what's what, he'd been around for years, and he knew how to win when not the best. Cav at that point WAS the best, and more often than not was delivered perfectly to the line, so it didn't matter that he didn't have the tricks, because the trick he had was almost unbeatable at times. Now that he isn't the fastest it's taken him a bit of time to develop those other tricks so as to still be competitive, but all those people saying back in 2010 or so that Cav would be unbeatable for a decade because of how strong he was and how old the likes of Petacchi were when they slowed down (forgetting his reign of terror came as a late bloomer) are now being shown that actually it IS cyclical, and some new fastest kid on the block has come along and taken Cav's thunder.

That's all I meant. Sagan has had a few years of being the man on his terrain. But now there are other people coming through who can challenge him - and even beat him - on that terrain. They are no longer psychologically expecting to be beaten by him, and he is now no longer psychologically expecting to beat them.

Cav has been the cleanist sprinter I have seen. Mostly, one may argue, that his competitors were breathing his fumes a couple of lengths behind. I can remember only about 3 times where it has been questionable. Did he not take Haussler down? But I dont think that was a Robbie Mcewen, I will ride Fabrizio Guidi into the barriers in Denmark Rund in 1997. no, that has never been Cav.

But like LS says, he may need to learn these new tricks that the Australians have in their DNA at birth. I dont count the time Cav used HighRoad to box Hushovd. That was not dirty, that was just tactical. He should not have lost the green jersey that year because of that stage.


oh, and Sagan was never a sprinter. I always thought his career arc was Tom Boonen, a classics rider who might mix it up in sprints, and win San Remo, but dominate those decimated stages in Grand Tours that Oscar Freire used to win. Just pick off the stages that drop the pure sprinter on their parcours

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

Libertine, are you saying the reason Sagan might be slightly past his peak is accumulated mileage/hard training/racing? I can believe that. What I have a hard time believing is that someone could be past one's peak, physically, at 25 everything else equal.

 

[vedrafjord]

Don't think you need doping to explain Sagan's current dip. It's 50% everyone knows what he's capable of so nobody wants to tow him to the line. It's 50% he's just not treating his body well right now - he's too big and doesn't really look like a cyclist right now (except certain 90's era ones with silly HCTs...) - I can definitely imagine Sagan of all the current peloton wanting to go out partying and "enjoying the fruits" of his youth and fame. Normally Riis would be the ideal boss for a guy like that as he'd give him a kick up the bum at the appropriate time but Riis has been a lame duck with his mind on other things so I'm not sure who will be the one to make Sagan understand he needs to get his focus back if he wants his career trajectory to be more like say Contador and less like Andy Schleck.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Don't think you need doping to explain Sagan's current dip. It's 50% everyone knows what he's capable of so nobody wants to tow him to the line. It's 50% he's just not treating his body well right now - he's too big and doesn't really look like a cyclist right now (except certain 90's era ones with silly HCTs...) - I can definitely imagine Sagan of all the current peloton wanting to go out partying and "enjoying the fruits" of his youth and fame. Normally Riis would be the ideal boss for a guy like that as he'd give him a kick up the bum at the appropriate time but Riis has been a lame duck with his mind on other things so I'm not sure who will be the one to make Sagan understand he needs to get his focus back if he wants his career trajectory to be more like say Contador and less like Andy Schleck.

Along with this, it could also be that the level of competition has increased. A few years ago he was by far the fastest finisher at the end of long - now Kristoff and Degenkolb have stepped up and are faster. He never used to have to try to break apart the race, because he always had his sprint to rely on - he could choose to attack when he felt good, but could also happily just follow wheels until the sprint.
Because he's not the fastest finisher in classics now, he is having to try to go on long ambitious breaks and to open up the race before a sprint - the problem is he's too well marked so other riders will let him open up the race and form a select group, but they'll all look to drop him before the sprint.

 

[blackcat]

lets just wait until after Flanders and Roubaix. He could have been storing his bloodbags and waiting to go bang.

Is Cancellara out of the classics too? Or am I imagining he is injured.

If Cancellara and Boonen are out, this thread could quickly had egg on its face like some PT Barnum conceit.
or not.

What I did see in one of the pics I looked for on the E3Prijs photos, was Sagans calves had rendered some tissue to manifest veins like the rider from NetApp. now, you can get these veins naturally, but sooooo uncommon. Wiggins at his low weight, his forearms looked like a bodybuilder with the veins spidering. This is not the femoral artery is it? because that would be too dangerous, no anatomist here.

These veins are only prominent to such degree with the new peptides. I shudder to think what Hincapie's non-varicose varicose like veins would look like, But Sagan is developing prominent veins in his calves, MORE prominent to be exact, prominent to the naked eye now when previously they were not as prominent.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

Libertine, are you saying the reason Sagan might be slightly past his peak is accumulated mileage/hard training/racing? I can believe that. What I have a hard time believing is that someone could be past one's peak, physically, at 25 everything else equal.

But yet, it happened all the time in old school Ostbloc cycling and we still see plenty of athletes like that.

It's not like Sagan is suddenly a bad cyclist, he's just not as dominant as he was. He's got more mileage on the clock than most riders at his age, and thus all it takes is a minor ailment and it takes longer to recover than it would on many other riders of a comparable age. He's doing ever-increasing numbers of race days before his season goals, owing in part to the sponsor demands from races and the team to have him there, as a big money player. And because he's used to winning, he'll want to keep racing to get that feeling back. And because his breakthrough was so fast (and because of his character, at least what he's shown in public), I can't see him being the patient type and can see him getting frustrated very quickly. But just as quickly, if he gets a high profile win, he may start to get a feel for it again and then will quickly be back on the wagon.

You know, like Cav did when his main talking points for six months were flipping off the fans at Romandie and doing an Abdou on Heinrich Haussler, crashed in the first Tour stage, completely fluffed the sprint in the next, then once he got one right and won the stage, he won every sprint from there on in.

Blackcat - when Cav is on form, sure, nothing wrong. And even if he was moving all over the place he's typically been far enough ahead of others for it not to matter. But when Cav is trying to force it, he can be all over the shop. Certainly in the jostling pre-sprint, although back in the HTC days he had Renshaw to do the dirty work for him, shoving people about, butting in and the like.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re: Re:

Libertine, are you saying the reason Sagan might be slightly past his peak is accumulated mileage/hard training/racing? I can believe that. What I have a hard time believing is that someone could be past one's peak, physically, at 25 everything else equal.

But yet, it happened all the time in old school Ostbloc cycling and we still see plenty of athletes like that.

According to Madiot, that's what meant Lofkvist was finished by age 28

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

Blackcat - when Cav is on form, sure, nothing wrong. And even if he was moving all over the place he's typically been far enough ahead of others for it not to matter. But when Cav is trying to force it, he can be all over the shop. Certainly in the jostling pre-sprint, although back in the HTC days he had Renshaw to do the dirty work for him, shoving people about, butting in and the like.

yes, I conceded previously, that the sample size was so low, when we did see Cav fighting for the wheels like Mcewen in the peloton. Highroad, Sky, he always got (no not always, but 85% of time) he always got the armchair ride. And you offering the accuity, that p'raps we needed the eye on the previous 5 km on the run in to the line, and watched the jostling then. And, again, as you say, he had the enforcers, and riders like Hincapie do the work. Apart from that one occasion, I have not see Renshaw fight dirty, and even then, the instance you site, I did not see that as particularly bad, not a dq, but then again, I am australian. Cav really needed the South African angriest guy in the peloton and current slipstream DS Robbie Hunter to be his enforcer. Remember at Tour Cali when he challenged golden gloves ukraine champ Popo to a fight and they got off their bikes on a climb. Would have been some good fisticuffs, but a technical golden gloves Popo would have cleaned the floor with the saffa brawler.

we might just "see" Cav's true form/nature when we see him mixing it up every stage in the final 2km, fighting for the wheel and sprinting mano a mano and not getting the armchair.

I think it might be, a little bit of your theory (I see it definitely has validity), and a little bit of my theory, Cav as cleanest ever sprinter besides being GOAT, with my caveat on the Haussler crash.

I do remember with a wry grin, at a race like Driedaagse de Panne in about 2008, Cav said about Kenny Robert Van Hummel, "dangerous, very dangerous". I think KRVH was on the Vlaanderen(Chcolade Jacques) or Skil squads, and one run in to the sprint, he was treated with disdain when he was looking for some cover 3kms in, it was something like a single-train run in, only a small race like de PAnne with about a dozen teams or less, and Columbia High Road were driving it, and up sidles KRVH looking for some semi cover, not a place in the wheels in the single-file train of Columbia, but riding next to them. And he was given the enforcer once-over by the Columbia domestiques, then Cav smears him in the press, then KRVH tried to catch him after the race for a good natured polite chat, and Cav was more hubristic than hubris to him.

I miss the times when Cav had zero media experience, zero media training, and he would just fly off the mouth. He was hilarious. Now he is more controlled, and media controlled, and we dont get those gems of jocularity.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Renshaw was always Cav's enforcer. And while the time he was DQed from the Tour was an extreme example, there are more than enough times they've cut people off, blocked them, given them the choice "fall in line behind us or take a trip to the Great Barrier Reef" and raced shoulder to shoulder with people in order to hold their advantage. Renshaw was just the most visible part of it because he was the last man in line, but he was just as guilty of it as any of the others.

And as you say, anybody who would try to break up the perfect train would get annihilated on the course, then smeared in the press for daring to challenge the hierarchy. Sometimes, like Roberto Ferrari in the Giro in 2012, they actually WERE dangerous, and deserved the criticism. But most of the time, Cav was just a *** who didn't like being challenged, and had an army of fanboys who would agree with everything he said, even when it was completely stupid.

 

[blackcat]

Re:

And as you say, anybody who would try to break up the perfect train would get annihilated on the course, then smeared in the press for daring to challenge the hierarchy. Sometimes, like Roberto Ferrari in the Giro in 2012, they actually WERE dangerous, and deserved the criticism. But most of the time, Cav was just a *** who didn't like being challenged, and had an army of fanboys who would agree with everything he said, even when it was completely stupid.

the funniest piece of riding i have seen was a Giro stage in about 2009, when Graeme Brown was attempting to contest a sprint from about 6 kms out, and they peloton goes thru a large round-a-bout, diameter prolly about 30metres, and the peloton at the front leadout was about 3 wide. Well, de Bruijn as we call him, was trying to move uo on the inside, and he just took a straight tangent through the outside of the round-a-bout, and he took down atleast one rider whose front tyre went across his back wheel.

you remember everything Libertine, can you remember this stage? Dont think Brownie finished in the top10, genuine jocularity

 

[blackcat]

it was funnier than when de Bruijn put Tom Steels in a bodybag in Qatar or Oman.

ISIS considered recruiting de Bruijn if he would convert to sunni or wahabbi islam, but he insisted on shia islam.

 

[the delgados]

Re:

So whats happening here guys? 25 years old and now already heavily on the decline. Did he get a nice letter from the UCI? When he was 21/22 years old he was at some point toying with the peloton.

Maybe it's a big eff you to the boss who suspended and probably fired 60%. Sagan's disappearance from the winning break the other day seemed a bit odd. Or maybe the guy is partying his ass off, now that he's making a boatload of money.
Sagan never struck me as a guy who really gives a ***.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

When it comes to sprinters being complete tools in sprints, Graeme Brown is in a class of his own in recent years. He gets the added bonus because he's a total hypocrite about it. Renshaw is aggressive and bolshy in the leadout and occasionally crosses the line of what's acceptable to set up the sprint, Brown is just dangerous at all times.