How long can Levi keep it in his pants?

[ImmaculateKadence]

I think because he KNEW that he was one of the few that specifically targeted that race when it was in February. He may not be as cocky now that it is in May when more riders have many race kilometers in their legs.

True, but is that a race that people are beginning to target? I haven't seen any rider come out and say, "Yeah, I'd really like to win in Cali." Well atleast not anybody that poses a serious threat: AC, Sanchez, Valverde, a Schleck etc. I think DZ has said it's a target, but even with the lack of mountain finishes and DZ's strength in a TT, I'd still give the edge to Levi.

You're right though. Somebody might show up that didn't initially target the race and suddenly realize they have the goods.

 

[Angliru]

That is interesting in Cali he has a killer instinct, but in a Grand Tour, even while being supported, he seems more submissive.

He knows at ToC that he's at his peak of condition versus competition that is there for base miles, race simulation and simply because their sponsor needs their presence there. Those that are in contention for the overall are riders that are either not at the peak form or no match for LL in a weeklong stage race anyway.

When he gets to the Tour he knows that what works in Cali ain't gonna work in France. As he is quite well known for saying, once he arrives in France he's simply trying to "limit his losses" in the mountains and make up the difference in the ITT's.

 

[Publicus]

True, but is that a race that people are beginning to target? I haven't seen any rider come out and say, "Yeah, I'd really like to win in Cali." Well atleast not anybody that poses a serious threat: AC, Sanchez, Valverde, a Schleck etc. I think DZ has said it's a target, but even with the lack of mountain finishes and DZ's strength in a TT, I'd still give the edge to Levi.

You're right though. Somebody might show up that didn't initially target the race and suddenly realize they have the goods.

I agree that no one has come out and said it, but I think you will find far more of the peloton who are in good form than those that are not. Andy Schleck may be in pretty decent form, given his late start to the year. And Cancellara, if he's there, may be rounding into some pretty decent form as well. Not that he will contend for the overall, but I think Levi will find it a much more difficult race to put a stamp on than he has had in the past.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

He knows at ToC that he's at his peak of condition versus competition that is there for base miles, race simulation and simply because their sponsor needs their presence there. Those that are in contention for the overall are riders that are either not at the peak form or no match for LL in a weeklong stage race anyway.

When he gets to the Tour he knows that what works in Cali ain't gonna work in France. As he is quite well known for saying, once he arrives in France he's simply trying to "limit his losses" in the mountains and make up the difference in the ITT's.

It's as though he rides with insecurity in a GT. Confident in the ITT, but seems very timid in the mountains. Most of the climbers are chomping at the bit when they hit the base of a climb (*stops think of AC at Arcalis and Verbier last year), but Levi has never been like that, except in Cali...somewhat.

 

[Berzin]

When Levi was interviewed a few times at last year's Tour, two things came to mind-

1) It was obvious he was backing Armstrong and...

2) he always had that stupid grin on his face, as if backing Armstrong was better than supporting one's team leader.

He made his bed with Radio Shack. He's been a team leader on two previous occasions and came up short.

He's not going to do a damn thing this year except win the ToC. Big deal. I guess it is, if you compare it to what Floyd Landis is going through.

And if Levi wins anything else, it won't be at the Tour, where it matters.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

I agree that no one has come out and said it, but I think you will find far more of the peloton who are in good form than those that are not. Andy Schleck may be in pretty decent form, given his late start to the year. And Cancellara, if he's there, may be rounding into some pretty decent form as well. Not that he will contend for the overall, but I think Levi will find it a much more difficult race to put a stamp on than he has had in the past.

Absolutely agree. As much as I want to see him win it, I honestly don't expect him to like I have every other year.

 

[BikeCentric]

I agree that no one has come out and said it, but I think you will find far more of the peloton who are in good form than those that are not. Andy Schleck may be in pretty decent form, given his late start to the year. And Cancellara, if he's there, may be rounding into some pretty decent form as well. Not that he will contend for the overall, but I think Levi will find it a much more difficult race to put a stamp on than he has had in the past.

Yes. The date change of the TOC is going to work against Levi. Part of why he's been able to dominate it in the past is because he's been one of the few riders willing to risk a season on a February fitness peak.

This summer will see some folks beginning to hone their form for July. They won't be on peak but they'll be fast. And I think A Schleck in a Tour build phase can beat Leipheimer even on his top form. Should be a good battle though because LL is the superior TT'er.

 

[schmalz]

I’ve got some seriously good material. Could I be a guest writer one week?

We always like hearing toto ideas, where they go after we get them can be very unpredictable though.

 

[flicker]

a schlecks' gonna put a hurt on levi in this years ToC. Also I will bet some US riders will come smokin in the mountains.

 

[Angliru]

When Levi was interviewed a few times at last year's Tour, two things came to mind-

1) It was obvious he was backing Armstrong and...

2) he always had that stupid grin on his face, as if backing Armstrong was better than supporting one's team leader.

He was almost giddy like an awkward schoolgirl who finally got noticed by one of the "popular" athletes.

 

[staubsauger]

levi is maybe the only one who could beat contador and lance knows that. he would have beat conta at 2008s vuelta, if bruyneel let him do, and if you ask me that was the beginn of the break between ac and the rest of the team and the true reason for the comeback of la.

levi rode a strong giro last year as pereperation for the tour and maybe, but just maybe he was the real man who should beat contador in last years tour and not lance. that might be possibble. he's 2 years older now than 2008, but if he still has the punch from that season, and i would think with bruyneel and his "training programme" he would have, maybe he is the man to go if lance couldn't. i think he would be the only one lance would let go without any problems

i guess he will do the same perfomance as last year, bulding a dubbel force with lance as a super domestique. but if he's the better one after the first tt's and before the first mountain stages, lance would maybe let him attack to destroy conta, the schlecks and wiggings. and keep keep on smiling and smiling if levi takes the yellow jearsey, while everyone is focussed on big lance ans his reaction which will never come^^

 

[BYOP88]

levi is maybe the only one who could beat contador and lance knows that. he would have beat conta at 2008s vuelta, if bruyneel let him do, and if you ask me that was the beginn of the break between ac and the rest of the team and the true reason for the comeback of la.

levi rode a strong giro last year as pereperation for the tour and maybe, but just maybe he was the real man who should beat contador in last years tour and not lance. that might be possibble. he's 2 years older now than 2008, but if he still has the punch from that season, and i would think with bruyneel and his "training programme" he would have, maybe he is the man to go if lance couldn't. i think he would be the only one lance would let go without any problems

i guess he will do the same perfomance as last year, bulding a dubbel force with lance as a super domestique. but if he's the better one after the first tt's and before the first mountain stages, lance would maybe let him attack to destroy conta, the schlecks
and wiggings. and keep keep on smiling and smiling if levi takes the yellow jearsey, while everyone is focussed on big lance ans his reaction which will never come^^

Just a few things, I must have watched the wrong Giro last year, as the one I saw Levi was anything but strong.

Ok can you please post me a link of Levi attacking, please! The only way Levi would "destroy" Contador and the Schleck's on a climb would be in Pro-Cycling Manager. If one of Lance's kids was stronger than him in a race he wouldn't let them become team leader.

 

[staubsauger]

Just a few things, I must have watched the wrong Giro last year, as the one I saw Levi was anything but strong.

Ok can you please post me a link of Levi attacking, please! The only way Levi would "destroy" Contador and the Schleck's on a climb would be in Pro-Cycling Manager. If one of Lance's kids was stronger than him in a race he wouldn't let them become team leader.

i mean that he rode a strong giro therefore that it was just a preperation for the tour for him as we know now.

and okay maybe he's not the best attacker in the peleton, but in 2008s vuelta he was so much stronger that conta and not only in the tt's. but in the tt's he was much better, and in that year ac already had become a good tter. he beat il cobra and marzio that way in the giro 2008.

the only thing that i want to say is, put just one eye on levi. maybe lance and bruyneel are planning a razzle-dazzle, which nobody would expect. remember my words in the summer

 

[Angliru]

I'd guess if LA doesn't have the stuff to contend for the podium, He'll work for the team and if Levi is the strongest on the team, that's who he'll work for. If LA is in competitive form, The team will work for him. I think LA is an astute enough businessman to know that getting the best possible result for the team is the most important thing. I also think he's coming to grips, albeit slowing and grudgingly, that he is well enough past his prime that there's no way in hell he can stay with Contador. (FWIW, I don't think anybody can).

Levi has had a very successful career, one that just about any professional cyclist would be thrilled to have. I think he's made the very best of his gifts at the very elite level of the sport. (something that I'm guessing the folks here who are calling him a pussy can't say). While I have no problem saying he isn't in the league of GT winners Merckx, Hinault, Lemond, Induran, LA, et al, and now Contador, I have utmost respect for him. he might not be at the level with those guys, but he's pretty damn close.

All that said, I won't be surprised - even if LA works for him - if he doesn't make the podium, or even win a stage. OTOH, you never know, the man could surprise.

Good post! Although I don't think it's likely that he'll podium. I don't see him making up the time that he'll lose in the mountains in the long ITTto Andy Schleck, Evans, Armstrong and Valverde. I think these will be the one's he will be fighting for a podium spot. Not to mention Kreuziger who may show to be superior to LL in the mountains.

I just think there is too much competition for LL this year: Menchov, Nibali, Basso (who may improve over last year's grand tour performances), Wiggins, Samuel Sanchez, Frank Schleck...his own teammate Kloden who had shown last year that he was stronger in the ITT than LL and likely was his equal in the mountains. Of course with Kloden there is no alternative agenda of hoping for Tour glory like LL. He'll ride himself into the ground for his captain at his own expense.

 

[Publicus]

i mean that he rode a strong giro therefore that it was just a preperation for the tour for him as we know now.

and okay maybe he's not the best attacker in the peleton, but in 2008s vuelta he was so much stronger that conta and not only in the tt's. but in the tt's he was much better, and in that year ac already had become a good tter. he beat il cobra and marzio that way in the giro 2008.

the only thing that i want to say is, put just one eye on levi. maybe lance and bruyneel are planning a razzle-dazzle, which nobody would expect. remember my words in the summer

I don't know what Vuelta or Giro you were watching, but it wasn't the 2008 or 2009 versions, respectively. He was riding the 2009 Giro to win and failed at it. He was riding in support of AC at the Vuelta and was better at the time trials, but I wouldn't say AC was significantly better than he was at the end of 2007 (he showed his most improvement last year).

Levi isn't an explosive climber. Never has been. He limits his losses in the mountains to the extent possible and tries to win via the TT. He's over 35, he's not changing his riding style now. He'll do the same at the Tour, which means he won't be going with any attacks (just like today, at Algarve and I predict the same tomorrow).

 

[Angliru]

Is it possible that LL is getting stronger and more confident? Probably still no kick, but maybe a little less of the pussy factor?

I think he feels enpowered/energized by being on the same team as riders that are superior to himself. Less pressure/less focus on him allows him to simply ride...and hope that he can sneak off and steal the Tour. Last year the focus was on Armstrong and Contador. It would have been quite interesting to see what card LL would've played on Verbier when Armstrong was struggling. Would he or Kloden been the one to play valet? Bruyneel would've chosen Kloden because there would've been no hesitation on his part. I recall how Vino struggled in the Tour in 2007(?) with Kloden obviously showing superior form and already up the road and Vino sending out an SOS for Kloden to back it up and escort him to the finish. We never ever heard a syllable of complaint from Kloden.

 

[Angliru]

He might say the Tour is now out of my reach but I will try to win one of the other grand tours before I retire.

Yeah, right. I think he views the Vuelta as beneath him and the Giro is not his cup of tea with the frequency of steep climbs. Plus after the humiliation or should I say the humbling he'll experience at the Tour he'll likely simply retire and try to win the Ironman.

 

[Angliru]

I guess I wouldn't argue with that. He was physically the equal of AC in AC's Vuelta win. Guess he likes his roll.

I'm saying he physically has the ability.

IMO he appears to excell (in grand tours) when the focus isn't on him as the solitary leader on a team. We're all familiar with his performances with Rabobank and Gerolsteiner. Even in 2007, he had the chance as the team's leader with Contador's role as wild card because he was simply a ball of potential at that point. Contador stole the race from him on the first mountain stage even after having a mechanical at the start of that stage's final climb.

 

[Angliru]

Levi made one mistake. He turned pro to late. Major talent. Coulda been a contender. He was smoking people in the US long ago.

The US ain't Europe. I'll agree he is somewhat of a late bloomer where his biggest wins came late(r) in his career. His turning pro late IMO has nothing to do with it. He could be leading his own team if he chose to but he's content to ride under Bruyneel's direction likely because he believes that it gives him the best and least stressful/pressure packed chance at success.

 

[staubsauger]

okay maybe i'm wrong about his giro perfomance last year (the giro is ill-suited for his type of rider, so i don't thing that he was realy planning to win it as it was communicated, but thats my personal opinion). but i'm totally assured he was the better one at the vuelta 08, conta wouldn't have dropped him on any mountain stage if they would have fight at eye-level and leci didn't have to stay with sastre or mosquera in the mountains to let alberto win

and levi definetly get more punch in 2008 than he had before in 2007 and his times at gerolsteiner and rabobank. that's just a fact. but that's just the same "bruyneel-effect" conta had in 2007 and lance many yers before

but his problem was always that he din't have the constance to hold his strengh over 3 weeks in the last years. with exclusion of this one vulta. and i hope so much for him that that wasn't his one and only chance to win a gt, that get ruined because of team politics....

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Agree with Angliru. However, even if a GT course were announced that were like the ones Indurain was winning with over 200km of TT distance, I still don't think Levi would win. It would take a fluke of sorts I think for him to win a GT.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Never underestimate the effect that newly discovered, <cough>, training techniques might have on improving cyclist performance...

I wouldn't write off LL's chances quite yet, or even his ability to develop a kick.

 

[blackcat]

Yes. The date change of the TOC is going to work against Levi. Part of why he's been able to dominate it in the past is because he's been one of the few riders willing to risk a season on a February fitness peak.

This summer will see some folks beginning to hone their form for July. They won't be on peak but they'll be fast. And I think A Schleck in a Tour build phase can beat Leipheimer even on his top form. Should be a good battle though because LL is the superior TT'er.

disagree, see 2008 Tour de Suisse.

When riders are down one blood bag in capacity, they cant win.

 

[Ripper]

Never underestimate the effect that newly discovered, <cough>, training techniques might have on improving cyclist performance...

I wouldn't write off LL's chances quite yet, or even his ability to develop a kick.

Well he only developed the uper fast and consistent TT in the past few years

 

[timmers]

Apparently Max Testa put him in a wind tunnel!!!!!

The guy was banned in the past he is shorter than his wife and he has no personality!

Why would you employ him????