Froome19 said:Spot on and that was why I would not put Contador odds on for the Tour next year.
The fact is that Schleck is close to his climbing level if not on it. Contador has always had the edge because of his TT, but that is not assured at all. Froome is also very close to his climbing level and may even be equal to or above Contador, we dont really know and will only find out at next year's Tour for sure. Wiggins as well is looking good and though Contador is probably stronger he is not someone to be under estimanted, because he climbed as good as anyone bar Froome in the Tour and can put 1 min into Contador per TT easily. Then there are the up and coming riders to consider such as Quintana, Pinot, TJVG, Dombro if anyone of them, and others indeed as well such as Rolland, become really really good then Contador will also have a hard time winning.
Then there is the fact that we have yet to see Contador at his Giro 2011 form, maybe he will never reach that pinacle? Maybe he will decline early?
There are a lot of variables here and though some are more likely than others, the defining fact is that they all contribute to make it extremely difficult for Contador to win all these ridiculous bags of GTs everyone seems to be talking about. If just one of the above comes into reality then Contador's bid for or so more Gts will be scuppered. So it is a possibility he can win them because he is a true GT winner and an amazingly talented rider, but it is extremely unlikely considering the circumstances.
All well and good but the man has crossed the line first in 7 of the last 8 GTs he's ridden. Hard to ignore that amount of innate talent, add in the courage and mental fortitude and you have a Champion. He may fade early but based on history he is coming into his prime years. Only time will tell.