How will Scarponi do at the 2012 Tour?

[Angliru]

no. simoni was clearly not in shape in 2004 giro. the giro had incredible bad particpants field. mcgee 8th, cioni 4th, gonchar 2nd etc should say enough. simoni peaked that year to the tour but still went pretty deep in the giro and basically sucked in both

Simoni's hands were tied by the Saeco management's decision to back Cunego, the new hot up and coming Italian, over the returning Giro defending champion. Simoni's form wasn't such that he couldn't have won the Giro, he simply was not free to attack when he wanted to with Cunego constantly up the road and with the majority of his team supporting a Cunego Giro win over his own.

 

[will10]

He came third in that Giro in an edition that was void of mountains(and won a stage). If there were more mountains he'd have won.

He only took time from Gonchar on 2 mountain stages. And even ignoring the time Cunego won into Falzes, he'd still have 30 seconds on Gibo. Simoni wasn't the best that year.

 

[will10]

Simoni's hands were tied by the Saeco management's decision to back Cunego, the new hot up and coming Italian, over the returning Giro defending champion. Simoni's form wasn't such that he couldn't have won the Giro, he simply was not free to attack when he wanted to with Cunego constantly up the road and with the majority of his team supporting a Cunego Giro win over his own.

Which race did you watch? The only day Simoni was forced to only follow the leaders was the stage to Falzes when Cunego attacked on the Furcia and had teammates in the valley. The other 3 stages Cunego won were attacks/sprints in the final kilometre. Simoni had more than enough opportunities to win the Giro that year, but he wasn't good enough. Besides, it was Simoni's idea for Cunego to attack on the Furcia to force Gonchar and Popovych - who were both isolated in the lead group - to chase. Even against tired opposition, Simoni took zero seconds from Gonchar that day.

 

[Fatclimber]

Are they Italian?

Of course not. Nor are they French. Guess they should stick with the Tour of Luxembourg.

I like to see riders in their prime battling it out in races that suit their abilities. This years' Giro accommodates Scarponi and the Schlecks.

 

[theyoungest]

Of course not. Nor are they French. Guess they should stick with the Tour of Luxembourg.

I like to see riders in their prime battling it out in races that suit their abilities. This years' Giro accommodates Scarponi and the Schlecks.

If you get 2nd in a race three times, I reckon it quite suits your abilities.

I see your point, but to say the Schlecks should follow Scarponi's example is ignoring the importance of the Giro for Italians vs. the rest of the world.

 

[Fatclimber]

If you get 2nd in a race three times, I reckon it quite suits your abilities.

I see your point, but to say the Schlecks should follow Scarponi's example is ignoring the importance of the Giro for Italians vs. the rest of the world.

2nd in the tour 3 times and 12th before that. Also, he did not race in the giro during that 4 year stretch which was preceded by a 2nd in the giro. I reckon he would have at least 1 victory to his name had he turned his attention to Italy, hence being more suited for it than the tour.

I'm not trying to understate the meaning of the giro to Italians. I'm not saying Andy will never win the tour either. Just saying it makes sense for each of them to do the giro this year because it is the grande tour the best suits all of their abilities.

 

[will10]

2nd in the tour 3 times and 12th before that. Also, he did not race in the giro during that 4 year stretch which was preceded by a 2nd in the giro. I reckon he would have at least 1 victory to his name had he turned his attention to Italy, hence being more suited for it than the tour.

I'm not trying to understate the meaning of the giro to Italians. I'm not saying Andy will never win the tour either. Just saying it makes sense for each of them to do the giro this year because it is the grande tour the best suits all of their abilities.

Ah go on then, I'll bite. Andy was 2nd in 2007. Which Giro do you think he would have won?

2008 vs. Contador & Ricco?
2009 vs. Menchov & Di Luca?
2010 vs. Basso & Nibali?
2011 vs. Contador?

I don't think he could have won any of those. Just think how much time he could have lost in Riomaggiore in 2009.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Ah go on then, I'll bite. Andy was 2nd in 2007. Which Giro do you think he would have won?

2008 vs. Contador & Ricco?
2009 vs. Menchov & Di Luca?
2010 vs. Basso & Nibali?
2011 vs. Contador?

I don't think he could have won any of those. Just think how much time he could have lost in Riomaggiore in 2009.

Lol, imagine Basso AND Schleck freaking each other out on the Mortirolo. That would have won Arroyo the Giro.

But the question is, where would Andy have lost more time? Sestri Levante in 2009, or Montalcino in 2010?

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Posted this in General News Thread; according to Ale-Jet, Scarponi will do the Giro. It's one of the reasons Ale will skip the Giro

Source: http://sporza.be/cm/sporza/wielrennen/111220_Petacchi

 

[greenedge]

I think if he worked on his ITT and blew everyone out of the water in the mountains he could top 5. I would love to see him ride purely because he would animate the race but i would prefer for him to square off against Basso in the Giro on a route that suits both of them.

 

[Fatclimber]

Ah go on then, I'll bite. Andy was 2nd in 2007. Which Giro do you think he would have won?

2008 vs. Contador & Ricco?
2009 vs. Menchov & Di Luca?
2010 vs. Basso & Nibali?
2011 vs. Contador?

I don't think he could have won any of those. Just think how much time he could have lost in Riomaggiore in 2009.

Any years without Contador would be his best chances for sure. Heck, he was under 2" back of DiLuca in his maiden GT.

Or maybe alberto's 'coming off the beach' giro. That'd be a pretty good shot too.

 

[roundabout]

Lol, imagine Basso AND Schleck freaking each other out on the Mortirolo. That would have won Arroyo the Giro.

But the question is, where would Andy have lost more time? Sestri Levante in 2009, or Montalcino in 2010?

With strong enough help Andy could get through the mud as well as Basso...

 

[greenedge]

I'd love to see Scarponi in the TdF, but I would love every TdF top10 guy riding the Giro much more

Scarponi should ride the Giro as he has a really big shot at winning it and I'm pretty sure he will ride the Giro as well.

Sanchez rides the Ardennes to win and then needs to scale back.
Menchov has won 2 Giros/ so he has ridden it. Also next year the TDF suits him so of course he would focus on it.
Nibali has already finished 3rd at the Giro 2 times. It might be good for him to focus on the TDF
Contador rode the Giro in 11
Evans/ Wiggins rode the giro in 2010 and realised it screwed up their TDF prep
JVDB rode it in 09/ or 08. I can't remember. The TDF suits him more.
Gesink could try the Giro but is under obligation to ride the TDF, where he could win soon/ he has a late season schedule
JROD does the Giro always practically.
Hesjedal ( even if his 2010 TDF performance was considered a fluke, therefore he is not considered a top 10 contender ) is riding the Giro this year.
Kreuziger who used to be strong against the clock is skipping the TDF for the Giro/ Vuelta, so he can be solidly consistent in the mountains.

And that just leaves the Shlecks, who have barely contested another stage race other than the TDF. ( Barring Andys' 07 performance/ Franks' 2010 Tour De Suisse )

Cancellara and O'Grady would have helped Andy.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

it will be like simoni. maybe he can win a stage but won't be any factor in gc. also I think he will ride the giro before ala simoni did in 2003 and come up short in both gt's

i oculd imagine this. I don't think he would be a contedor for the podium like some think.
Plus the climbing is diffrent to the giro.

 

[The Hitch]

Any years without Contador would be his best chances for sure. Heck, he was under 2" back of DiLuca in his maiden GT.

Or maybe alberto's 'coming off the beach' giro. That'd be a pretty good shot too.

Andy was not yet at his greatest in 2008 , so I don't think he could have beaten Ricco.

Sanchez rides the Ardennes to win and then needs to scale back.
Menchov has won 2 Giros/ so he has ridden it. Also next year the TDF suits him so of course he would focus on it.

Menchov won the Giro just the once.

Evans/ Wiggins rode the giro in 2010 and realised it screwed up their TDF prep

Different Giro. 2012 aint no joke, but 2010 had a headbut in Moltacino 3 diredct head hits with Grappa Zoncolan Kronplatz, then the haymaker with Mortirolo and a gentle kick when the ref aint looking with Gavia.

 

[Parrulo]

i oculd imagine this. I don't think he would be a contedor for the podium like some think.
Plus the climbing is diffrent to the giro.

i would say the less steeper climbs of the tour actually suit scarponi's low gear style a bit better

 

[greenedge]

Andy was not yet at his greatest in 2008 , so I don't think he could have beaten Ricco.



Menchov won the Giro just the once.


Different Giro. 2012 aint no joke, but 2010 had a headbut in Moltacino 3 diredct head hits with Grappa Zoncolan Kronplatz, then the haymaker with Mortirolo and a gentle kick when the ref aint looking with Gavia.

Thx for the Menchov thing. I got confused with his 2 Vueltas.
That stage to Gavia was weird. However the Giro would still screw up Evans/ Wiggins chances of going well at the TDF even if they did the Giro on the 2012 route ( which has a big 3rd week ). Besides next year the course suits both Evans/ Wiggins/ Menchov so why would they go to the Giro anyways.

 

[jens_attacks]

Ah go on then, I'll bite. Andy was 2nd in 2007. Which Giro do you think he would have won?

2008 vs. Contador & Ricco?
2009 vs. Menchov & Di Luca?
2010 vs. Basso & Nibali?
2011 vs. Contador?

I don't think he could have won any of those. Just think how much time he could have lost in Riomaggiore in 2009.

2008 and 2010 were the least impressive giros in performance over the mountains.but in 2008 andy should have come with the 2007 form to win it.2009 hell no,menchov was breathing like phelps.2010 absolutely sure.2011 absolutely not.
we'll never know anyway.but we'll see in 2012 giro i'm sure.and then we'll also see who is the second best climber in the world.rujano or andy?sorry purito you're out.

 

[Kvinto]

Tbh, the main obstacle in fair evaluation of Michele's real chances in the Tour is that many things are still unknown. For the last three years his optimal racing program appears to be: Tirreno - Giro - Lombardia, and when he broke that program entering Vuelta 2011 he failed.

He is always good on the short climbs (regardless of the competition), on Giro climbs with Giro's competition (regardless of the climb, though there may be different points of view on what suits him more: 20km-5% or 10km-10%); his time trialing is pretty good if there are some hills along the route or the time trial is not long, and he is the one who never gives up.

But on the other hand:

- Giro 2011 showed that he is not a contender to Contador;

- There is very little information about Scarponi's true level outside his comfort area. Only this year's Catalunya and Vuelta i guess. Vallnord mtf showed that he can be good on the Tour-like climbs but Contador is a different level (again), in the case of Vuelta he just failed right from La Covatilla (stage 9). The only Tour-like time trial he rode over the last three years was Salamanca stage 10 in Vuelta 2011, it was a total failure but in Michele's defence the things gone wrong a day before that stage so i think he might do better there.

I think it's not enough to evaluate Scarponi in the case of the Tour, but unfortunately there is a lot of examples of riders that could succeed in Giro but fail in the Tour (due to differences in the field, course, pressure...), so basically the most of people expect Scarponi to fail in the Tour, while the others (the fans like me) expect him to do very well (top-6, top-5 or even the podium). The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, you never know.

As a fan of Michele I believe he can do well in the Tour, I can't be sure of course, but if he wants to succeed in France he should be ready to sacrifice his season. The problem is that I wouldn't like him to sacrifice his season just for one race, no matter what a race it is.

 

[El Pistolero]

Andy was not yet at his greatest in 2008 , so I don't think he could have beaten Ricco.

Andy had beaten Ricco in the 2007 Giro already. At the Tour of 2008 he was one of the best climbers, but bonked big time on the stage Leonardo Piepoli won.

 

[El Pistolero]

2008 and 2010 were the least impressive giros in performance over the mountains.but in 2008 andy should have come with the 2007 form to win it.2009 hell no,menchov was breathing like phelps.2010 absolutely sure.2011 absolutely not.
we'll never know anyway.but we'll see in 2012 giro i'm sure.and then we'll also see who is the second best climber in the world.rujano or andy?sorry purito you're out.

Lol, 2008 least impressive in the mountains? That was a crazy Giro in the mountains.

 

[Altitude]

Michele Scarponi = 2012 Giro champion

 

[jens_attacks]

Lol, 2008 least impressive in the mountains? That was a crazy Giro in the mountains.

well that tells you about how fast they were/are riding il giro.2008 was the slowest compared to 2006,2007 and 2009,sella the big performer.not big differences between the main favourites,one of the slowest mortirolo ascents in 20 years.probably the reason:the weather which was the crappiest in the last 10 years i think,pozzovivo not getting sick back then was a miracle.

 

[will10]

The Mortirolo stage was crap parcours though, too far away and no big climb after it.
I remember Ricco attacking once, Contador coming back, then Colom sitting at the front the rest of the climb after Sella got clear.

Was still an awesome 3rd week of that Giro, complete carnage!

 

[greenedge]

@JensAttacks; how come you think the 2010 Giro was bad in the mountains. A lot of contenders were sick, but it resulted in significant time gaps throughout the whole Giro. It also saw Basso claim an epic win on Zoncolan and him come back to competitive cycling.