I Hate to do this but Brad Wiggins

[rhubroma]

Saying he was a prologue rider at best suggests that he had no other sporting success. Remember he has numerous Olympic and track gold medals to his name.

Yea it's one thing to go from a tracky to the worlds best road sprinter: i.e. Cannonball, entirely another to a Tour favorite. He's jacked, no doubt about it. And if he were Italian or Spanish? Would the Angles and Saxons have any doubts? Please.

 

[Parrot23]

See pic from today's New York Times showing Andy Schleck's "chicken" leg. Wiggo's don't look much different to me.

Hard to see how much power would come out of legs like those (of course, wrong), but goes to show weight is still crucial.

We'll see if Wiggo is a one-shot wonder on the next two CONSECUTIVE mountain stages. Too soon to know. Don't think he's a Tour favourite: media blowing this way out of proportion (they need a story). Wiggo is in unknown territory here with the Tour now only starting to become very tough.

 

[131313]

Yea it's one thing to go from a tracky to the worlds best road sprinter: i.e. Cannonball, entirely another to a Tour favorite. He's jacked, no doubt about it. And if he were Italian or Spanish? Would the Angles and Saxons have any doubts? Please.

you really don't know a damn thing about endurance track cycling, do you?

 

[PACONi]

you really don't know a damn thing about endurance track cycling, do you?

Compare what Wiggin's is doing to, say Brett Lancaster or Mark Renshaw, both ex 4000m pursuiters. They are sprint lead out men now, but Wiggins is suddenly a GC guy??
Another example would be Brad McGee. He tried to become a Tour rider but found that anything over 10 days was beyond his ability. Wiggins may be a better rider than McGee was (certainly more success on the track, until now nowhere near the results of McGee).

I hope he's clean, if only to save a lot of Brits a lot of tears (and Wiggins an assualt or two, judging from previous posts ). I just seriously doubt it. The really sad part is I'll be more likely to believe him if he blows up and loses chunks of time. I neither like, nor dislike him, its just the amount of credibility the pro level has these days.

 

[runninboy]

Yea it's one thing to go from a tracky to the worlds best road sprinter: i.e. Cannonball, entirely another to a Tour favorite. He's jacked, no doubt about it. And if he were Italian or Spanish? Would the Angles and Saxons have any doubts? Please.

Another one of your broad generalisations based on race
yawn...

 

[blackcat]

It is right to say that he has never had these kind of results on the road before, because he hasn't. What is wrong is to then jump to the conclusion that the reason he wasn't having these results before is purely because he was lacking in physical ability.

If you have watched interviews with Dave Brailsford, Bob Stapleton and Jonathan Vaughters this Tour, you will have heard them all say pretty much exactly the same thing about Wiggins: they have always known from the numbers he puts out in training that he had the physical ability to ride like this, but he did not have the right attitude, motivation or focus.

Wiggins has said himself that after becoming an Olympic champion and world record holder at the age of 24 he felt that he had made it to the top and lost a lot of his drive to keep improving himself, and sort of got stuck in a rut with track racing because he didn't have the self-confidence to commit to road racing.

flaw in this thinking, is Brad Mcgee. Would probably have beaten Bartko in 2000 without a broken clavicle, and perhaps would have had Wiggins' measure in 2004, if he had been 6 foot and 74 kgs, but he was 100% road, and morphing into a GC rider. He probably would have been quicker than Wiggins. What was Wiggins quickest, 4.15.016 or something. Mcgee could have gone "14 or lower.

Wiggins profited from a weak depth track pursuit, and lact of specificity of competitiors. If Cancellara, Mcgee, Hushovd, were all doing the track pursuit, they would have brought it down, Hushovd and Cancellara perhaps to Boardman's illegal 4.11

Maybe Boonen too.

Hincapie also. Heck, Brailsford has said Clancy has the same output as Wiggins on the track. Will he be a GC rider. He did do very well in Langkawi in about 2006 tho. coulda been '05

 

[Anonymous]

isnt it a really sad state of affairs, when i almost want Wiggins to bonk on a hill today and lose a hatful of minutes, just so he can shut up some of the doubters..

 

[Jamsque]

flaw in this thinking, is Brad Mcgee. Would probably have beaten Bartko in 2000 without a broken clavicle, and perhaps would have had Wiggins' measure in 2004, if he had been 6 foot and 74 kgs, but he was 100% road, and morphing into a GC rider. He probably would have been quicker than Wiggins. What was Wiggins quickest, 4.15.016 or something. Mcgee could have gone "14 or lower.

Wiggins profited from a weak depth track pursuit, and lact of specificity of competitiors. If Cancellara, Mcgee, Hushovd, were all doing the track pursuit, they would have brought it down, Hushovd and Cancellara perhaps to Boardman's illegal 4.11

Maybe Boonen too.

Hincapie also. Heck, Brailsford has said Clancy has the same output as Wiggins on the track. Will he be a GC rider. He did do very well in Langkawi in about 2006 tho. coulda been '05

So now we are just in to speculating wildly and with absolutely no hard facts about other riders, and somehow that is evidence that Wiggo is dirty?

 

[Mambo95]

Yea it's one thing to go from a tracky to the worlds best road sprinter: i.e. Cannonball, entirely another to a Tour favorite. He's jacked, no doubt about it. And if he were Italian or Spanish? Would the Angles and Saxons have any doubts? Please.

Have a look at some of the winners and runners-up in the world pursuit championships over the years

http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UCI_Track_Cycling_World_Championships_-_Men%27s_Individual_Pursuit

Look at some of the names - Coppi, Anquetil, Altig, Riviere, Koblet, Moser. All excellent Grand Tour riders.


(I realise Moser blood doped, but only at the end of his career and most of the others took pills, but that doesn't alter power. It shows a definate correlation between pursuiters and GC riders).

 

[Jamsque]

BOOM! Bringing the KNOWLEDGE, Mambo95! I never knew that Fausto Coppi was a pursuit rider, and a world champion no less. Very interesting. Wim van Est, too!

 

[blackcat]

see where Bartko was, he was hopeless on the road, won a few prologues, Poland before protour, and two or three others, perhaps Brittany which is always 2.2 and some other small ones like Ster Elektrotoer. Not any major wins. I think Escobar won a worlds, where was he? Nowhere on Caisse d'Epargne and he is only about 5'10 and 70kgs, plus he was a 4'16" man.

O'Grady and Hincapie were pursuiters too, but crossed too early to full time road. Mcgee is the best modern comparison.

 

[Mambo95]

see where Bartko was, he was hopeless on the road, won a few prologues, Poland before protour, and two or three others, perhaps Brittany which is always 2.2 and some other small ones like Ster Elektrotoer. Not any major wins. I think Escobar won a worlds, where was he? Nowhere on Caisse d'Epargne and he is only about 5'10 and 70kgs, plus he was a 4'16" man.

O'Grady and Hincapie were pursuiters too, but crossed too early to full time road. Mcgee is the best modern comparison.

I wasn't claiming ALL pursuits make good GC riders. There's more required than natural talent (mental strength, the ability to suffer, the ability to recover, good team support and the opportunity to go for it). I was merely pointing out that the transfer of talent between pursuiting and GC riding is far from unheard of.

 

[mercuryrising]

Wiggin's high GC place is due to a mixture of factors, obviously he has improved as a road rider due to hard work and training as already discussed. But also, the environment in which he is now racing is much cleaner, so his athletic ability is allowed to shine on a more level playing field. That must be an incredible motivation to a rider like Wiggins. The '07 Tour was the slowest average speed since 1994.... I'd imagine this year's Tour won't be breaking any speed records either.

 

[Anonymous]

Wiggin's high GC place is due to a mixture of factors, obviously he has improved as a road rider due to hard work and training as already discussed. But also, the environment in which he is now racing is much cleaner, so his athletic ability is allowed to shine on a more level playing field. That must be an incredible motivation to a rider like Wiggins. The '07 Tour was the slowest average speed since 1994.... I'd imagine this year's Tour won't be breaking any speed records either.

well apart from some riders ascents..

 

[Zen Master]

well apart from some riders ascents..

And that supposed to be Alberto Contador who is dirty but your fellow countryman Bradley Wiggins is clean and innocent like a baby ?!
Well Alberto Contador have at least some proof of good climbing abilities earlier in his career but Wiggo who is suddenly just a little bit slower than world class climber like Bertie obviously is not under suspicion ...
Very interesting indeed ...

P.S. Just for the record, for me both of them have the same level of suspicion about using PEDs

 

[Jonathan]

Of course, there is a chance that I'm wrong, but if Wiggo is dirty then the super pessimists (you know who you are) must be right, and the entire pro peleton must be filthy, and I'm not willing to believe that. So if he ever tests positive I will be putting the boot in with rolfrae.

That doesn't make sense at all. If Wiggins, who is currently performing far above initial expectations, is doping, then so must everybody else?

It is my expectation that he will test positive at some point in the near future. Not because he is more of a cheater than other top riders, but I think Wiggins is taking more risks and is not relying on guidance as professional as the other top contenders. His performance reminds me of types like Kohl and Rumsas. Ofcourse, I'm not trying to downplay the man's obvious talent, nor the likely factor that he must have set his mind really toward this race, but it all seems a bit too obvious again.

We'll wait and see what happens.

 

[mercuryrising]

Wiggins is a clean rider. Have no doubt at all. This is not a flash in the pan rider. This is a 29 year old athlete whose won multiple Olympic medals over many years and is currently the best cyclist in the UK. He is a product of the British Cycling track team success, headed by Dave Brailsford and Shane Sutton. The fact he is up there with American, Spanish and Germany's best is not a surprise.

 

[rhubroma]

Wiggins is a clean rider. Have no doubt at all. This is not a flash in the pan rider. This is a 29 year old athlete whose won multiple Olympic medals over many years and is currently the best cyclist in the UK. He is a product of the British Cycling track team success, headed by Dave Brailsford and Shane Sutton. The fact he is up there with American, Spanish and Germany's best is not a surprise.

Yes, but no track athlete in the history of the sport has made the jump Wiggins has. Allright that he lost all that weight and changed his diet ,et al, but that he has become a Tour contender both coming form the track and without dope simultaneously? I wouldn't bet even my used city bike on it.

It is an incredible feat that he made this enormous pass at all, but that he is also clean, given the highly improbable chance that the rest of the top 50 GC riders are in the race is pure fantasy.

Because if her were that good, he would have come out years ago. Unless we are to believe that miracles can happen in this sport.

 

[red_explosions]

Gotta say I was shocked at how good Wiggo looked today. Followed the attacks so easily. Honestly thought he would have blown by now. If anything looks to me like he's holding something back. Could be a cracking stage to Ventoux if he closes the gap in the TT. Can only hope that it's all legit.

 

[blackcat]

Gotta say I was shocked at how good Wiggo looked today. Followed the attacks so easily. Honestly thought he would have blown by now. If anything looks to me like he's holding something back. Could be a cracking stage to Ventoux if he closes the gap in the TT. Can only hope that it's all legit.

why?

fair is fair to Brad. He would only be going up against Contador, on similar terms. Find it hard to assume he is on the 35 injections per stage program that Armstrong had. So, he would still be at a disadvantage.

 

[dienekes88]

Wiggin's high GC place is due to a mixture of factors, obviously he has improved as a road rider due to hard work and training as already discussed. But also, the environment in which he is now racing is much cleaner, so his athletic ability is allowed to shine on a more level playing field. That must be an incredible motivation to a rider like Wiggins. The '07 Tour was the slowest average speed since 1994.... I'd imagine this year's Tour won't be breaking any speed records either.

Well, so far it has averaged 40.57kph. Wiggins @1'46" back has averaged 40.55kph. While not record breaking, this is faster than any of Armstrong's first 5 Tours.

The '07 Tour (at 39.23kph average for the winner) had the slowest winner since 1994? That's actually incorrect. '00 @ 39.22kph was slower than '07. It's mincing stats, but the implications of what you're saying are broader than just speed.

Anyway, is that supposed to suggest that the winner was clean? It doesn't take a historian to remember that Contador won that Tour, and people love to hate Contador. The next year's winner averaged a blistering 40.50kph.

 

[dienekes88]

Yes, but no track athlete in the history of the sport has made the jump Wiggins has. Allright that he lost all that weight and changed his diet ,et al, but that he has become a Tour contender both coming form the track and without dope simultaneously? I wouldn't bet even my used city bike on it.

It is an incredible feat that he made this enormous pass at all, but that he is also clean, given the highly improbable chance that the rest of the top 50 GC riders are in the race is pure fantasy.

Because if her were that good, he would have come out years ago. Unless we are to believe that miracles can happen in this sport.

Yeah. As has been mentioned before, the only MODERN comparison can be Brad McGee, who turned himself inside out to finish 8th in the Giro on one occasion. However, McGee, if I recall correctly, also had severe back/leg problems that pushed him into retirement a little early

The comparisons to Anquetil et al. are inappropriate. The racing was different back then. Cycling has become too specialized with the increased financial support in the sport to see crossover champions like Anquetil, Coppi, Altig again. Similarly, that's also why the feats of Merckx and Hinault may never be replicated.

It's tough to do this, but I'm going to suspend my disbelief. Twiggo's story is great, because it reinvigorates the idea that each of us - to an extent - is the master of our own desiny. That he can just modify his diet and training, and then by sheer force of will turn himself into a fantastic climber is inspiring. People will say I have my head in the sand, but there's very little each of us can do to catch these guys. Either you b*tch and moan about it on rides and on teh Intarwebz (very common), or you go out there and help catch them (very rare), or you just sit back and appreciate the spectacle for at face value. If the positives come, then they come.

I did a little analysis of Twiggo's performance on Verbier with the help of a power regression on Dr. Ferrari's estimates of VAM vs. power/weight. Then considering that aerodynamic drag varies with the square of velocity, I predicted the speeds of the two in the TT. My calculations tell me that Twiggo will beat Contador by 2'02" in the Annecy TT. You may point to the fact that Contador actually beat Wiggins in the opening time trial, but that had a considerable amount of uphill, and the result was probably highly dependent on willingness to take big risks on the downhill. If Contador doesn't take 16" out of Wiggins in the next couple days, Wiggins may have the jersey for a day... He'll almost definitely lose it on Ventoux, though.

 

[Izoard]

Wow, people get pretty intense about some of these matters. FWIW, Wiggo's focus on the road has me not totally shocked at his performances so far. He always seem to treat the road as his "off season" before. I know a few fellas that would shine on the road if they would focus on that instead of the track.

With Brad McGee, I seem to recall he had numerous health issues that hampered his ability to really show his potential. Perhaps someone else has a clearer memory than I do!

 

[Escarabajo]

... I predicted the speeds of the two in the TT. My calculations tell me that Twiggo will beat Contador by 2'02" in the Annecy TT. You may point to the fact that Contador actually beat Wiggins in the opening time trial, but that had a considerable amount of uphill, and the result was probably highly dependent on willingness to take big risks on the downhill. If Contador doesn't take 16" out of Wiggins in the next couple days, Wiggins may have the jersey for a day... He'll almost definitely lose it on Ventoux, though.

I have you on record now.

I think is a bit too much at this time of the race where recuperation seems to be a bigger factor than anything else. Both look strong now, so everything is possible. I have never would have bet a dollar for Wiggins to be battling out with Contador at this time of the race.

 

[dienekes88]

I have you on record now.

I think is a bit too much at this time of the race where recuperation seems to be a bigger factor than anything else. Both look strong now, so everything is possible. I have never would have bet a dollar for Wiggins to be battling out with Contador at this time of the race.

I have published this prediction elsewhere too! No worries, dude. I'll stand by that.

He's on punishing form, and I'm just going to suspend my disbelief regarding anything shady.

If you look at the difference in power output between the two: 417W (estimated by Ferrari) and 466W (estimated by me using an extrapolation of Ferrari's method)... you can compare their velocity on the flat. The ratio of the power is equal to the ratio of the squares of their velocity.

I guessed that they'd hit the 3rd category climb at a 20 minute VAM similar to their climbing of Verbier. The results were that Twiggo would beat Contador by 2'25" on the 83km of flattish stuff and lose 23" on the climb. The MAJOR limitation of this analysis is that the differences in power are greatly reduced in the 6km downhill after the climb.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. It's fun to make these guesses, though.