Giro d'Italia Il Giro d'Italia 2025: Who will win? 2nd rest day poll.

[Devil's Elbow]

It was really the big narrative around O'Connor once he got 5 mintues advantage. He had won unless he had a bad day somewhere. Instead he just got dropped and lost 40s 5+ times because he was not one of the top climbers in the race.

O'Connor had finished 23rd on the only MTF before his time gain, Del Toro came 2nd on Friday. Not equivalent at all. To say nothing of the difference in remaining number of mountain stages.

Fundamentally, Del Toro should never be surrendering all of a 2:25 lead to Roglic between the TT and an attack on the stage 16 MTF. That means Roglic has to drop him on a climb that isn't a MTF. Which is the best thing about this route - even something I agree would normally be not that intimidating a time gap is likely enough to force people into needing long-range attacks.

I also don't think forum consensus was even remotely close to 'O'Connor is winning this unless he collapses badly' right after stage 6. In fact, I would say that the only stretch where more than the odd poster gave him any chance of pulling it off was between him losing no time on the queen stage and him bombing on the next mountain stage. But that's not the topical discussion.

 

[Red Rick]

Hear what you're saying RE the narrative, I mean I don't really recall anyone saying that but I don't pay that much attention. I don't doubt what you say. Never thought he had a chance myself.

But we'd have to say Del Toro appears to be more of a talent than O'Connor, yes? Less time gained, but I would think he's much more of a racer, both physically and mentally.

Del Toro is a bigger unknown, absolutely.

 

[red_flanders]

Del Toro is a bigger unknown, absolutely.

"Unknown" is interesting in that context. I've seen enough to say I'm confident he's a much bigger talent than O'Connor.

 

[Netserk]

Who finished nearly 2 hours down in GC of O'Connor in the Vuelta last year.

Sooner or later, he will definitely be better. But today, this month? An unknown.

 

[zlev11]

if del Toro had 4:51 like O'Connor did i'd say, maybe. he would definitely have a better chance than O'Connor did.

but 2:25 is nothing. it will be 1:45 already after the TT.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Who finished nearly 2 hours down in GC of O'Connor in the Vuelta last year.

Sooner or later, he will definitely be better. But today, this month? An unknown.

He is an unknown and this is why he is more dangerous than O'Connor. Del Toro's ceilling can be way higher than O'Connor.

 

[zlev11]

if del Toro had 4:51 like O'Connor did i'd say, maybe. he would definitely have a better chance than O'Connor did.

but 2:25 is nothing. it will be 1:45 already after the TT.

that said, the Vuelta route was much much better than this crap. there's really only 3 stages left where big time can be taken. what a horrible route.

 

[red_flanders]

that said, the Vuelta route was much much better than this crap. there's really only 3 stages left where big time can be taken. what a horrible route.

Doesn't that make the race more interesting? More tactical? I think it might.

 

[zlev11]

Doesn't that make the race more interesting? More tactical? I think it might.

maybe more tactical but more interesting? id rather see 5 or 6 exciting stages than 2 or 3.

 

[Red Rick]

Doesn't that make the race more interesting? More tactical? I think it might.

Not that tactical when all you need to do is shut down the breakaway and attacking becomes pretty pointless.

 

[red_flanders]

maybe more tactical but more interesting? id rather see 5 or 6 exciting stages than 2 or 3.

I guess to me it's so often that a lot of really hard stages means one rider eventually shows out and takes big gaps, which is generally pretty boring, unless one is a big fan of that rider. So to me it's potentially a more interesting and more tactical course. We'll see how it plays out.

Not that tactical when all you need to do is shut down the breakaway and attacking becomes pretty pointless.

Personally I doubt it will be that simple.

 

[Gratemans]

maybe more tactical but more interesting? id rather see 5 or 6 exciting stages than 2 or 3.

5 or 6 nice courses in the high mountains doesn't necessarily result in 5 or 6 exciting stages though. Quite often the contrary. With so many hard stages, teams often ride very defensively because of those hard stages yet to come.

 

[zlev11]

5 or 6 nice courses in the high mountains doesn't necessarily result in 5 or 6 exciting stages though. Quite often the contrary. With so many hard stages, teams often ride very defensively because of those hard stages yet to come.

but when there's a situation like we have now, a rider like Roglic has to attack at every opportunity to try to make up time. like the Vuelta last year.

 

[noob]

Can't vote. I have absolutely no idea. It's completely open. Ayuso knee won't be a walk in the park. Did Roglic have any stitches or any other injuries?

 

[Gratemans]

but when there's a situation like we have now, a rider like Roglic has to attack at every opportunity to try to make up time. like the Vuelta last year.

Might be. Still, I think 3 stages should be more than enough as well. He didn't really lose that much time. And there's also the ITT. We'll see. I have a feeling the rest of this Giro can get pretty exciting.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

My podium prediction:

1. Richard jaguar carapaz
2. Simon Philip Yates
3. Anto sniper Tiberi
4. Roglic
5. Egan

Roglic 4th, de Torro lower end of top 10 (7th-10th), ajuso abandons at some point

 

[Gigs_98]

I just can't ignore just how imperious Del Toro looked today. I agree he's a huge unknown but this performance must scare Ayuso and Roglic massively.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I just can't ignore just how imperious Del Toro looked today. I agree he's a huge unknown but this performance must scare Ayuso and Roglic massively.

To be fair, he got to wheelsuck Ineos for 25 kms after his first attack, but yes, he was amazing. I don‘t think there‘s anything about his career so far that indicates that the long mountains aren‘t one of his main strengths. The third week is the third week, but I think Del Toro has the best chances to win right now. Then again, Roglič just needs to drop them all on Finestre and he wins.

 

[Tonton]

My heart wanted to vote for Del Toro. But it feels like I have watched that movie before, a Cinderella story , I hope that I'll be proven wrong , but I did vote for Ayuso.

So far, Juan is very solid, aggressive, clearly above Roglic, he won't lose more than 30, maybe 40 seconds on the ITT, he has the team.

The plot is UAE team's politics and I hope that we don't see a sequel of '87, and there is a smell of it, at least for me. For Ayuso', you never know if you'll get another chance...

Go ahead Juan, and forget your plans for a vacation in Cancun...Isaac is on the verge of deity status...

Next week's GC and poll shouldn't look too different. I think that Del Toro will survive Asiago. For me, Bernal riding at this level is to watch, and I root for Tiberi. Vai!

 

[Potomac]

I'm sitting at my desk reading your puny opinions.

Carapaz. Now you know.

I laugh at you all. [Picture Jabba the Hut with a deep guffaw]

 

[SHAD0W93]

I’m all aboard Del Toro pulling off an El Principito with Roglic second and Ayuso third.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

1. Roglic
2. Carapaz
3. Del Toro

Podium within 30 seconds.

Ayuso to abandon physically or mentally at some point.

 

[Cookster15]

Roglic wasn't very convincing in the 2023 Giro until he crushed the final MTT.

Del Toro is such an unknown quantity in grand Tours.

I'll stick with Roglic FTW but hoping Bernal can do well.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

This is lining up to be an exciting battle, actually. Now, if only we had a decent route. I mean, week three is nice but they might as well skip week two altogether.

GC standings currently:

Del Toro
Ayuso +1.13
Tiberi +1.30
Carapaz +1.40
Ciccone +1.41
S. Yates +1:42
Bernal +1.57
A. Yates +2.01
Roglic +2.25
Storer +3.03
Arensman +3.21
Gee +3.59

Del Toro looks by far the strongest at the moment. But there's uncertainty regarding his recovery and and ability in the high mountains. To me, he's the favorite right now though - but we might see him blow up spectacularly ala S. Yates 2018.
Ayuso and Roglic are still the two most likely to take the other two steps on the podium, but there are question marks over them as well. Both have been impressive as times and disappointing at times.
Carapaz and Tiberi both look solid and if I had to guess, one of them will finish on the podium instead of one of the three aforementioned.
Bernal, Ciccone and S. Yates look good too, but Ciccone I expect to blow up in week three. Bernal and S. Yates have had recovery issues lately so I don't see either really competing for the podium neither.
Storer as everyone could see peaked too early. He should drop out of the top 10 and aim for a stage in week three.
A. Yates I suspect will be on team duty from here on.
Gee and Arensman are both too far back to fight for a podium (although that was unlikely to happen anyway), but perhaps one of them can sneak into the top 5. I missed what happened to them yesterday, although I think I saw Gee trying to attack a few times.

 

[Oldman]

Del Toro is a bigger unknown, absolutely.

He's on the list: Richard Carapaz. I can see him and Primoz emerging as the primary combatants in several, key stages. You know he and EF wants to win this more than anyone.