Initial Top 10 for the TDF

[blaxland]

1.Evans
2.Wiggins
3.Gesink
4.Sanchez
5.Nibali
6.JVB
7.Rolland
8.Martin(garmin)
9.Schleck
10.Menhov

 

[RedZone]

Evans
Sanchez
Menchov
Froome
Leipheimer
Van den Broeck
Gesink
Kloden
Rolland
Kruijswijk

 

[The Hitch]

1 El Pistolero
2 Dekker-Tifosi
3 theyoungest
4 timmy_loves_rabo
5 dwlssonic
6 The Hitch
7 jens_attacks
8 LaFlorecita
9 boomcie
10 ACF

So that is

1 A belgian.
2 Mollema
3 Gesink
4 Poels
5 TJ Van Garderen
6 Samu Sanchez
7 Janjo Cobo/ Pierre Rolland / Danilo Di Luca
8 Jesus Hernandez
9 Sep Vanmarke
10 Cadel

?

No wait, that makes no sence...

Theres 3 dutchies in the top 5

 

[Ferminal]

Contador
Evans
Schleck
Froome
Schleck
Sanchez
Wiggins
Nibali
Gesink
Van den Broeck
Menchov

Wiggins
Evans
Menchov
Froome
S. Sanchez
Klöden
Rolland
Gesink
Nibali
Van den Broeck

 

[iZnoGouD]

Evans
Wiggins
Rolland
Froome
Valverde
Klöden
S. Sanchez
Voeckler
Van den Broeck
Nibali

 

[Oliver]

Wiggins
Evans
Gesink
VDB J
Froome
Menchov
Kloden
Nibali
S Sanchez
Velits P

 

[The Joker]

1. Evans
2. Sammy Sanchez
3. Menchov
4. Leipheimer
5. Nibali
6. Van den Broeck
7. P Velits
8. Gesink
9. Valverde
10. Froome

 

[taiwan]

It's funny to notice how most people mostly use all favourites in their predictions, while a few of them are guaranteed to crash out due to whatever reason. So if you truly want a believable list, leave some top contenders out.

Not a more probable list though.

 

[LaFlorecita]

So that is

1 A belgian.
2 Mollema
3 Gesink
4 Poels
5 TJ Van Garderen
6 Samu Sanchez
7 Janjo Cobo/ Pierre Rolland / Danilo Di Luca
8 Jesus Hernandez
9 Sep Vanmarke
10 Cadel

?

No wait, that makes no sence...

Theres 3 dutchies in the top 5

Lol Probably the Belgian is JVDB.

 

[Azabael]

Not a more probable list though.

Less likely to predict as many in the top 10 right as possible, yes. More chance at a shot of predicting all right. Though I guess no-one can have that much luck beside a healthy portion on insight.

 

[theyoungest]

Less likely to predict as many in the top 10 right as possible, yes. More chance at a shot of predicting all right. Though I guess no-one can have that much luck beside a healthy portion on insight.

It's not all luck though. Nibali, Valverde, Sanchez, Menchov are relatively safe, whereas Gesink, Leipheimer, Evans, Schleck are very likely to crash out of GC competition.

Also, it's an even year, meaning that Menchov will at least make the podium

 

[Azabael]

It's not all luck though. Nibali, Valverde, Sanchez, Menchov are relatively safe, whereas Gesink, Leipheimer, Evans, Schleck are very likely to crash out of GC competition.

Also, it's an even year, meaning that Menchov will at least make the podium

Lol.

And yes like I said, beside a healthy portion of insight.

Menchov definititely wouldn't be a safe pick for me. He's an all or nothing guy. And it happens quite often the 'nothing' part sees yet another day.

 

[theyoungest]

Lol.

And yes like I said, beside a healthy portion of insight.

Menchov definititely wouldn't be a safe pick for me. He's an all or nothing guy. And it happens quite often the 'nothing' part sees yet another day.

Yes, but like I say, there's a regularity to the all-ness and the nothingness. 2012 will be an "all" year.

 

[Azabael]

Yes, but like I say, there's a regularity to the all-ness and the nothingness. 2012 will be an "all" year.

Haha okay, I'm curious. If it's gonna be in a simular way he won the giro in '09, I'll definitely root for him.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

Yes, but like I say, there's a regularity to the all-ness and the nothingness. 2012 will be an "all" year.

He won all his GTs in odd years tho. But until 2011 it was indeed win a GT in odd years and ride a good Tour in even years.

 

[Azabael]

Kind of ridiculous if you'd truely consider that to be reliable info to base your expectatinos on, to be clear.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

He won all his GTs in odd years tho. But until 2011 it was indeed win a GT in odd years and ride a good Tour in even years.

Last year he would've won the Vuelta if no riding for Cobo, so we can count last year as win a GT. This means we can expect Menchov to podium behind Contador and ASchleck this year once again, riding a good TDF because it is an even year. Oh wait!!! Alberto and Andy arn't riding this year !!! Menchov ftw for sure now.

It's written in the stars

 

[Cervelo77]

Haha okay, I'm curious. If it's gonna be in a simular way he won the giro in '09, I'll definitely root for him.

You mean by mechanic?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Pro Cycling Manager 2011 (with 2012 database + startlist)
Predicts the following
(played passively with Saur)

1 Cadel Evans BMC Racing Team 89h58'27
2 Vincenzo Nibali Liquigas-Cannondale + 3'16
3 Samuel Sánchez González Euskaltel - Euskadi + 6'44
4 Robert Gesink Rabobank Cycling Team + 7'03
5 Bradley Wiggins Sky ProCycling + 7'28
6 Chris Froome Sky ProCycling + 7'31
7 Fränk Schleck RadioShack-Nissan + 7'40
8 Jurgen Van Den Broeck Lotto Belisol Team + 8'05
9 Ryder Hesjedal Garmin - Barracuda + 8'23
10 Denis Nikolayevich Menchov Katusha Team + 9'11

11 Levi Leipheimer Omega Pharma-QuickStep + 10'02
12 Christopher Horner RadioShack-Nissan + 11'07
13 Michele Scarponi Lampre - ISD + 12'32
14 Thomas Voeckler Team Europcar + 12'40
15 Juan José Cobo Acebo Movistar Team + 14'38
16 Jérôme Coppel Saur - Sojasun + 14'55 Player
17 Pierre Rolland Team Europcar + 16'34
18 David Moncoutié Cofidis, le Credit en Ligne + 19'14
19 Janez Brajkovič Astana Pro Team + 20'04
20 Jelle Vanendert Lotto Belisol Team + 20'05
21 Daniel Martin Garmin - Barracuda + 20'43
22 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte Movistar Team + 21'17
23 Bauke Mollema Rabobank Cycling Team + 22'00
24 Luis León Sánchez Gil Rabobank Cycling Team + 22'50
25 Rein Taaramäe Cofidis, le Credit en Ligne + 25'15
26 Andreas Klöden RadioShack-Nissan + 25'16
27 Thomas Danielson Garmin - Barracuda + 26'17
28 Chris Anker Sørensen Team Saxo Bank + 27'52
29 Johnny Hoogerland Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team + 29'13
30 Christophe Riblon AG2R La Mondiale + 30'39

Green: Cavendish
Mountains: Riblon
White jersey Taaramae
Team: Radioshack

Wiggins lost 4 minutes in the first week. And since then Froome was better most of the mountain stages. Due two 2 extreme TT's he still finished top 5 and in front of Froome however.
In the mountains, Evans, Sanchez, Nibali and F.Schleck were the best 4. F.Schleck dropped from 3rd to 7th in the final ITT. Gesink was best of the rest but also lost 2 minutes in the first week. Evans and Nibali were the only riders not to lose time in the first week...

 

[Froome19]

I prefer your last predictions better...

 

[The Hitch]

Pro Cycling Manager 2011 (with 2012 database + startlist)
Predicts the following
(played passively with Saur)

1 Cadel Evans BMC Racing Team 89h58'27
2 Vincenzo Nibali Liquigas-Cannondale + 3'16
3 Samuel Sánchez González Euskaltel - Euskadi + 6'44
4 Robert Gesink Rabobank Cycling Team + 7'03
5 Bradley Wiggins Sky ProCycling + 7'28
6 Chris Froome Sky ProCycling + 7'31
7 Fränk Schleck RadioShack-Nissan + 7'40
8 Jurgen Van Den Broeck Lotto Belisol Team + 8'05
9 Ryder Hesjedal Garmin - Barracuda + 8'23
10 Denis Nikolayevich Menchov Katusha Team + 9'11

11 Levi Leipheimer Omega Pharma-QuickStep + 10'02
12 Christopher Horner RadioShack-Nissan + 11'07
13 Michele Scarponi Lampre - ISD + 12'32
14 Thomas Voeckler Team Europcar + 12'40
15 Juan José Cobo Acebo Movistar Team + 14'38
16 Jérôme Coppel Saur - Sojasun + 14'55 Player
17 Pierre Rolland Team Europcar + 16'34
18 David Moncoutié Cofidis, le Credit en Ligne + 19'14
19 Janez Brajkovič Astana Pro Team + 20'04
20 Jelle Vanendert Lotto Belisol Team + 20'05
21 Daniel Martin Garmin - Barracuda + 20'43
22 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte Movistar Team + 21'17
23 Bauke Mollema Rabobank Cycling Team + 22'00
24 Luis León Sánchez Gil Rabobank Cycling Team + 22'50
25 Rein Taaramäe Cofidis, le Credit en Ligne + 25'15
26 Andreas Klöden RadioShack-Nissan + 25'16
27 Thomas Danielson Garmin - Barracuda + 26'17
28 Chris Anker Sørensen Team Saxo Bank + 27'52
29 Johnny Hoogerland Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team + 29'13
30 Christophe Riblon AG2R La Mondiale + 30'39

Green: Cavendish
Mountains: Riblon
White jersey Taaramae
Team: Radioshack

Wiggins lost 4 minutes in the first week. And since then Froome was better most of the mountain stages. Due two 2 extreme TT's he still finished top 5 and in front of Froome however.
In the mountains, Evans, Sanchez, Nibali and F.Schleck were the best 4. F.Schleck dropped from 3rd to 7th in the final ITT. Gesink was best of the rest but also lost 2 minutes in the first week. Evans and Nibali were the only riders not to lose time in the first week...

does this new database still rank Vincenzo nibali as 1 of the absolute best gt ttrs?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

No, not even close. Nibali is on the same level as Gesink and Vandenbroeck in this database.

Wiggins was the underperformer this Tour. With these stats I could've done much better if I controlled him

 

[Froome19]

If DT was using 2012 stats of latest one

1. Cadel Evans BMC Racing Team 89h58'27 Mountains: 82 TT: 79
2 Vincenzo Nibali Liquigas-Cannondale + 3'16 Mountains: 81 TT: 76
3 Samuel Sánchez González Euskaltel - Euskadi + 6'44 Mountains: 81 TT: 76
4 Robert Gesink Rabobank Cycling Team + 7'03 Mountains: 80 TT: 75
5 Bradley Wiggins Sky ProCycling + 7'28 Mountains: 79 TT: 81
6 Chris Froome Sky ProCycling + 7'31 Mountains 77 TT: 77
7 Fränk Schleck RadioShack-Nissan + 7'40 Mountains 81 TT: 70
8 Jurgen Van Den Broeck Lotto Belisol Team + 8'05 Mountains 80 TT: 72

And Menchov: Mountain: 79 TT: 78

 

[The Hitch]

No, not even close. Nibali is on the same level as Gesink and Vandenbroeck in this database.

Wiggins was the underperformer this Tour. With these stats I could've done much better if I controlled him

What are The Popes stats? Do they have him as past it?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

If DT was using 2012 stats of latest one

1. Cadel Evans BMC Racing Team 89h58'27 Mountains: 82 TT: 79
2 Vincenzo Nibali Liquigas-Cannondale + 3'16 Mountains: 81 TT: 76
3 Samuel Sánchez González Euskaltel - Euskadi + 6'44 Mountains: 81 TT: 76
4 Robert Gesink Rabobank Cycling Team + 7'03 Mountains: 80 TT: 75
5 Bradley Wiggins Sky ProCycling + 7'28 Mountains: 79 TT: 81
6 Chris Froome Sky ProCycling + 7'31 Mountains 77 TT: 77
7 Fränk Schleck RadioShack-Nissan + 7'40 Mountains 81 TT: 70
8 Jurgen Van Den Broeck Lotto Belisol Team + 8'05 Mountains 80 TT: 72

And Menchov: Mountain: 79 TT: 78

Very close. Some minor differences (like JvdB's ITT)...

@Hitch: Menchov was lesser than his peak stats a few years ago, but still adequate to finish top 5. However he never really did anything but follow and deliver 2 decent ITT's (but not spectacular)