Initial Top 10 for the TDF

[Squire]

1. Contador
2. Menchov
3. A. Schleck
4. Evans
5. Sanchez
6. Klöden
7. Nibali
8. Wiggins
9. Valverde
10. F. Schleck

 

[roundabout]

Menchov in top form can TT very well and so can Evans in top form.

Also a TT with 1200 meters of climbing, 2 climbs that would probably be (were?) second category in a GT raced over 94 minutes is a bit of an extreme example as the first TT in the next Tour is a lot shorter and a lot easier.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Accounting for the rest of his GT career made many of us look foolish in July.

Yes, that's the risk with any pronouncement. Now you just have to choose whether you'd rather risk foolishness betting against the most recent level of performance, or the most typical level of performance.

 

[Ferminal]

Yes, that's the risk with any pronouncement. Now you just have to choose whether you'd rather risk foolishness betting against the most recent level of performance, or the most typical level of performance.

I'd prefer a broader conclusion which makes both outcomes possible, in posting predictions here most are assuming everyone is at their best. If Evans preparation is similar to this year there is no reason not to expect a similar level, but on the other hand it would not be shocking to see a 3rd week fadeout which we know he is capable of (for whatever reason).

 

[The Hitch]

isn't that the same for Menchov too? When was the last time he was so close to a prime Martin or Cancellara?

I was worried someone might say that but didnt expect it to be you.

Of course its the same for Menchov but that particular bit isnt about Menchov, since i never tried to compare Menchov with Martin. ts about Evans vs Martin.

You mentioned Evans proximity to Martin in the final tt time as a way of showing how great a tt specialist he is.

I warned that there are dangers in comparing his tt to Martin because for at least 2 major reasons the tt was far more suited to Evans than Martin.

Nothing to do with Menchov.

I think dismissing Evans' Grenoble, or indeed his whole Tour as some sort of fluke is dangerous.

I never dismissed Evans but rather hyped up his rivals. The argument that Evans isnt world number 1 doesnt focus around Evans having had "a fluke" in July 2011, but rather the idea that several riders have legitimate excuses for those 3 weeks.

Thats us not neccesarily just limited to gc contenders but also as to why he finished 2nd in Grenoble rather than maybe 4th or 5th (with Cancellara off form, Wiggins not there, 1 or 2 others maybe not there or off form etc).

Yes, some of those riders will be none factors in the flatter tour next year, but some will.

 

[Ferminal]

I was worried someone might say that but didnt expect it to be you.

Of course its the same for Menchov but that particular bit isnt about Menchov, since i never tried to compare Menchov with Martin. ts about Evans vs Martin.

You mentioned Evans proximity to Martin in the final tt time as a way of showing how great a tt specialist he is.

I warned that there are dangers in comparing his tt to Martin because for at least 2 major reasons the tt was far more suited to Evans than Martin.

Nothing to do with Menchov.

We are comparing Evans and Menchov's ITT'ing ability using Martin as some sort of benchmark, I do not see how Menchov is irrelevant at any point. It was hardly a huge climbing TT, the technical descent was probably more significant, but I'm not really sure who that favours. Martin is fine in hilly TT's (see P-N and Pais Vasco) in any case, Evans probably prefers them over a dead flat ones. I don't think we can use intermediate times to try and compare the different sections.

I couldn't accept that Evans' Stage 20 performance was dependent on the characteristics of the stage, just as I couldn't accept Menchov's 2010 Tour and Vuelta performances being dependent on the windy conditions on those days. I find it very hard to come to the conclusion that somehow these performances show a better TT'er than Evans' Grenoble effort. As above, if anything I would favour Evans, although can also accept a position of indifference.

 

[The Hitch]

I do not see how Menchov is irrelevant at any point..

He is irrelevant in the following discussion about how great Evan's Grenoble tt was. He is irrelevant because he did not take part in that tt.

You say that Evans was great at the Grenoble tt because he almost beat Martin.

Evans' ITT this year was insane, 7" behind Martin, hard to see even 2010 Menchov TT'ing beating that.

I explain why Martin was not on top form in the Grenoble tt.

Evans could have even beaten Martin on that tt, as he claims to have taken the last 10k easier, but Martin isnt the best example to use in that it wasnt like his tt form everywhere else.

You ask if that wasnt the same for Menchov..

Of course a GC rider is going to be closer to the specialist at the end of a GT, isn't that the same for Menchov too?

No it isnt because I am talking ONLY about the 2011 Grenoble tt which you brought up and Menchov did not take part in that tt hence it has nothing to do with him.

_______________

I couldn't accept that Evans' Stage 20 performance was dependent on the characteristics of the stage, just as I couldn't accept Menchov's 2010 Tour and Vuelta performances being dependent on the windy conditions on those days. I find it very hard to come to the conclusion that somehow these performances show a better TT'er than Evans' Grenoble effort. As above, if anything I would favour Evans, although can also accept a position of indifference

My opinion on Menchov is based on a theory I have that Menchov only really puts in killer performances when something is on the line. Maybe its pure fantasy but thats how I see it.

Seeing as he only peaks for Gts in the first place, only peaks for an average of 1 gt a year and there havent been many tts in recent gts, that leaves a very small pool of results where Menchov would give it his all.

I explain Vuelta 2010 by saying he was saving himself for that stage for about 1 and a half weeks.

But Giro 09 and Bordeaux 10 are the 2 examples from the last 2 gts he has peaked for.

Lets also remember that he was ahead on the Rome tt till he crashed so wasnt doing too badly there.

Go back a year to 08 and he did better than Cadel in the final tt, just, but then Cadel was fighting for a TDF title, which should have boosted him.

You say you dont see how Tour 2010 or Vuelta 2010 tts are above Grenoble but Grenoble was not a pan flat tt. For the pan flat tt what Cadel examples are there that match up to Menchovs 2 2010 ones?

 

[Ferminal]

He is irrelevant in the following discussion about how great Evan's Grenoble tt was. He is irrelevant because he did not take part in that tt.

You say that Evans was great at the Grenoble tt because he almost beat Martin.



I explain why Martin was not on top form in the Grenoble tt.



You ask if that wasnt the same for Menchov..




No it isnt because I am talking ONLY about the 2011 Grenoble tt which you brought up and Menchov did not take part in that tt hence it has nothing to do with him.

When I say that it's the same for Menchov I mean that he will also be closer to the specialists by the end of a GT, hence why I asked, when did he last produce a similar performance in these circumstances. I'm just as interested in Menchov's ability as Evans', as we have been comparing the two from the start. We have to discuss more than the Grenoble TT for the blatantly obvious reason that Menchov was not involved in it. My point isn't that Grenoble shows that Evans is almost as good as Martin (and that I came back with the Menchov reply as some sort of strawman), it's that all GC riders will close the gap to the specialists at the end of a GT, this is hardly a new concept, and hardly one exclusive to Evans/Grenoble.

My opinion on Menchov is based on a theory I have that Menchov only really puts in killer performances when something is on the line. Maybe its pure fantasy but thats how I see it.

Seeing as he only peaks for Gts in the first place, only peaks for an average of 1 gt a year and there havent been many tts in recent gts, that leaves a very small pool of results where Menchov would give it his all.

I explain Vuelta 2010 by saying he was saving himself for that stage for about 1 and a half weeks.

But Giro 09 and Bordeaux 10 are the 2 examples from the last 2 gts he has peaked for.

Lets also remember that he was ahead on the Rome tt till he crashed so wasnt doing too badly there.

Go back a year to 08 and he did better than Cadel in the final tt, just, but then Cadel was fighting for a TDF title, which should have boosted him.

You say you dont see how Tour 2010 or Vuelta 2010 tts are above Grenoble but Grenoble was not a pan flat tt. For the pan flat tt what Cadel examples are there that match up to Menchovs 2 2010 ones?

If you think Menchov was saving up for the Vuelta ITT, doesn't that make it somewhat invalid in a GC comparison? I explained in my previous post that I don't believe Evans' Grenoble performance was necessarily dependent on the course.

For Evans in flat time trials see 09 Dauphine, 08 Tour (final), 07 Tour (final). 09 Dauphine had a small climb but nothing huge, 08 Tour he was rubbish in the Alps and only dropped 10" to Menchov in the TT.

 

[orangerider]

1) Contador
2) Evans
3) Nibali
4) Wiggins
5) Menchov
6) A. Schleck
7) S. Sanchez
8) Levi
9) Kloden
10) Danielson

 

[movingtarget]

I'd prefer a broader conclusion which makes both outcomes possible, in posting predictions here most are assuming everyone is at their best. If Evans preparation is similar to this year there is no reason not to expect a similar level, but on the other hand it would not be shocking to see a 3rd week fadeout which we know he is capable of (for whatever reason).

If you look at Evans last four TDF's only in 2009 did he seem to have no excuses for his performance. He just seemed to have a brain explosion after the disastrous TTT and went downhill from there. 2008 he had a bad fall and was worked over by an incredibly strong CSC team and Sastre finished the fresher in the third week. 2010 he was in yellow when he crashed so he did not even get to the third week in any sort of shape to battle for the podium. In 2011 he changed his preparation, had a later start to the season and he never looked so good the third week as he did in 2011 hence the final TT when he rode the sort of TT eveyone knew he had always been capable of.

At this late stage of his career he has found the right formula and I expect him to follow the same schedule in 2012 and add the two Ardenne classics he missed through injury. Fleche and Liege. I would be shocked if he fell apart in the third week of the 2012 TDF as I think he has got past previous problems. I can't understand why people are righting him off because he will be 12 months older. If anything I think he will only be more confident in himself and his team.

 

[greenedge]

Yeah i fully agree. I think if he had not won the TDF this year it might have set him back mentally but with his win he has every reason to be confident. He only really started the TDF at the age of 28 as well, so he is fresher in a sense and is still developing more explosively uphills. If he started going for GC at a younger age he might have won two TDFs' by now.

 

[greenedge]

http://www.google.com.au/imgres?q=b...133&start=0&ndsp=59&ved=1t:429,r:15,s:0,i:185

Discuss again or have your really bad earlier predictions.

Mine
Evans
Wiggins
Gesink
Samu
Menchov
Levi
Nibali
JVDB
Rolland
Valverde

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

1 El Pistolero
2 Dekker-Tifosi
3 theyoungest
4 timmy_loves_rabo
5 dwlssonic
6 The Hitch
7 jens_attacks
8 LaFlorecita
9 boomcie
10 ACF

 

[LaFlorecita]

Aw, having a bit of a sad seeing all the predictions

 

[LaFlorecita]

1 El Pistolero
2 Dekker-Tifosi
3 theyoungest
4 timmy_loves_rabo
5 dwlssonic
6 The Hitch
7 jens_attacks
8 LaFlorecita
9 boomcie
10 ACF

Why 8th? It is podium or nothing for me.

 

[Azabael]

Why 8th? It is podium or nothing for me.

What, are you Menchov?

 

[dlwssonic]

1 El Pistolero
2 Dekker-Tifosi
3 theyoungest
4 timmy_loves_rabo
5 dwlssonic
6 The Hitch
7 jens_attacks
8 LaFlorecita
9 boomcie
10 ACF

lol this is great

 

[gustienordic]

1. Ryder
2. Levi
3. Tommy D
4. Menchov
5. Gesink
6. Evans
7. Valverde
8. Samu
7. Nibbles
8. JVDB
9. Coppel
10. Wiggins

Joking

 

[Froome19]

1: Wiggins
2: Evans
3: Sanchez
4: Nibali
5: Gesink
6: Van Den Broeck
7: Menchov
8: Froome
9: Rolland
10: Valverde

 

[taiwan]

1. Contador
2. Menchov
3. Wiggins
4. Klöden
5. Evans
6. Samuel Sanchez
7. Peraud
8. Andy Schleck
9. Danielson
10. Tony Martin

LOL make that a top 8 without Bert and Andy and it is rather comial. The first 5 are ok but not in that order.

 

[markene2]

1: Menchov
2: Evans
3: Wiggins
4: Van Den Broeck
5: Leipheimer
6: Nibali
7: Sanchez
8: Gesink
9: Cobo/Valverde
10: Klöden/Vino/Danielson

 

[Frosty]

1. Cadel Evans
2. Samuel Sanchez
3. Bradley Wiggins
4. Robert Gesink
5. Denis Menchov
6. Frank Schleck
7. Jurgen Vandenbroeck
8. Pierre Rolland
9. Vincenzo Nibali
10. Tom Danielson

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

1. Vino
2. Evans
3. Wiggo
4. Kash
5. Sanchez
6. Nibali
7. Valverde
8. Van den Broeck
9. Rolland
10. Frankie boy

 

[Azabael]

It's funny to notice how most people mostly use all favourites in their predictions, while a few of them are guaranteed to crash out due to whatever reason. So if you truly want a believable list, leave some top contenders out.

 

[greenedge better then some]

1.Van Den Broeck
2.froome
3,evans
4.wiggins
5SCHLECK frank
6 sammy san
7VELITS
8 cobo
9basso
10Gesink