Is the worlds course really that hard?

[auscyclefan94]

Going into these worlds, everyone has been saying how hard this course in geelong is. But after the under 23's road race today with it coming down to a group of 47 in the lead bunch, with Michael Matthews beating Degenkolb, is this course really that hard? Is u23 a completely different race in comparison to the men's road race?

Which sprinters will make it if it comes down to a group of 50 to the finish line?
Or will it be a solo attack or even a small bunch that decides the world champion?

Discuss.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Depends on how they race.

The U23 race was remarkably dull and soft up until the very final. If they wait that long with making the race hard, the only logical result is a mass sprint.
However, start the final early and make hard pace on each climb, and I really doubt such a large peloton will be left.

Belgium and Italy will be looking to make the race as hard as possible. So it's hard to say how it will end up

 

[Moondance]

I think around 50 people should be what makes it to the finish, largely together. Then the question will be whether Gilbert or someone else can jump away on that last incline and beat the likes of Freire or Farrar.

Personally I'm going for Farrar at the moment.

 

[El Imbatido]

I agree with D_T. The riders probably heard all the hype about how hard the course was and during the race no one wanted to lay all their cards on the table at once so everyone just watched everyone and it ended in a bunch sprint.

 

[auscyclefan94]

i personally think a group les than 10 will get away with pozzato winning it. Today's u23 race made me re-think my original thoughts of the course but now I am back to what i thought.

The u23 race was raced quite timidly in my opinion especially as they gave so much leeway to Ben king (usa). i don't want to go down to the worlds to watch a bunch sprint. I am still unsure of where I am going to stand.

The 2nd quite is a perfect platform for gilbert and a few others to get away. It is super steep. A dark horse for the win imo is greg van avermaet. Strong climber and excellent sprinter. Though italians definetly don't have a sprinter so they will definetly have to take the race by it's horns.

 

[Spare Tyre]

I have no idea.

There are a few teams who will want to try to force a selection before the final, and I think with the likely 45kmh tail/crosswind from Melbourne to Geelong, the extra 100 km or so and the extra circuits it's possible.

 

[Ferminal]

I don't think we should read too much into the U23 race. If the Elites only race it in the final 4 laps then it too will be a relatively large bunch.

But if we have a situation like Mendrisio where a big break needs to be reeled in with constant counter-attacking, it will be very hard for the specialist sprinters. Of course Mendrisio was a harder course so the field will not be shattered, but it will knock many out if the race is on for most of the laps.

Gilbert will not win if it's a group of 30+, the uphill sprint is nothing unless the lead-out is very weak, if you can get to 150m, power still wins.

Bettini will probably be rueing his decision to overlook Bennati, but the Italians should make it a great race. I'm considering tipping Edvald for the win if I knew he wasn't going to choke the sprint. Maybe Goss could hang on (he could probably beat all but Cav anyway in the sprint), or perhaps it will be too tough and Freire and Sagan will be the best of the bunch. Of course it's impossible to rule out a flying group of 5-10 strongmen also.

There are heaps of possibilities.

From the other thread:

Battery89

If you look at the combined resources of the intl and trade teams who MUST keep it together then to me it looks like the Italians are outnumbered.

Also Pozzato (and Gilbert) will still fancy their chances of a long sprint on that 500m uphill even if they are still together with a couple of KM to go.

The more I think about it the more I think it will stay together then the last lap will be mental.

Farrar is keeping quiet but he must also before positive after the espoirs race

I think you will find the Velits working for some punk called Sagan. Rogers/Goss = Aus, USA and Germany are the only teams which share the same goal as GBR so their trade team is irrelevant. Albasini = Fabian's Decoy, Eisel = Eisel (see Gent-Wevelgem), Lars Bak = Breschel.

So basically you're left with Siutsou and a couple of Kiwi chuggers who may throw aside their colours for their contract.

 

[who dat]

I think that with the riders travelling the extra 100km they won't waste half of the laps of the circuit getting warmed up. The U23's where scared by the hype about how hard the course was so didn't attack as they were trying to conserve energy. The Italian and Belgium teams will take note of this and will attck at every chance to make sure their is not a bunch sprint.

 

[brianf7]

The eleit mens race will be different with the weather forcast promising sunshine with 24 deg and north easterly warm wind 20-30 kmh

From Melbourne to Geelong will be fast and with strong tail winds you get strong men like O,Grady & Rogers on the front the race can split very early,

Then along the water front before the finish it will be a cross head wind so the sprinters will have to have help in some way to get to the bottom of the hill.

ounce there it will be a tail wind finish.

 

[Walkman]

No way there will be a bunch sprint with as much as 60 riders. You can't look to much into the U23 race because, from what I have heard, (I only watched the last 1,5 laps) they only raced for 2 laps or so. I think some teams will turn up the heat and make sure that there won't be 40 riders coming into the final kilometer together.

 

[search]

USA and Germany are the only teams which share the same goal as GBR so their trade team is irrelevant. Albasini = Fabian's Decoy, Eisel = Eisel (see Gent-Wevelgem), Lars Bak = Breschel.

Germany has enough options besides Greipel (like Paul Martens and possibly Fabian Wegmann), they don't even have to go for a bunch sprint necessarily

 

[ingsve]

Well, some teams need to make the race hard for it to be hard. If they softpedal the whole way then of course it's a sprint of 100 riders but that won't be the case. Italy for example has not brought any top sprinter and have instead focused on Pozzatto. They will for sure make the race hard to give them the best shot at winning.

Another thing about the U-23 race is that when someone attacked they always got away alone pretty much so it was very easy for the bunch to bring it all back without splitting the field. The pros will probably be a lot more aggressive.

 

[Toobab]

Worlds' are unpredictable. It would be foolish to sit and let it be a sprint, and also foolish to work and force selection after selection until Gilbert et al are ready to make their move in the last few miles. I think there will be 150k of boredom, with an insignificant break or two 3 minutes up the road, and then a lot of attacks with periods of quiet allowing regrouping, and lots and lots of retirements.
I don't think the course is hard enough to be the significant factor, I think the long day and the variation in pace is more likely to have an effect on the hothouse sprinters.
I like Cadel Evans because he has had such rotten luck and he has probably been thinking about nothing much else since July, and Cavendish because if they don't all conspire to work against him, he will win.

 

[The Hitch]

Going into these worlds, everyone has been saying how hard this course in geelong is. But after the under 23's road race today with it coming down to a group of 47 in the lead bunch, with Michael Matthews beating Degenkolb, is this course really that hard? Is u23 a completely different race in comparison to the men's road race?

Which sprinters will make it if it comes down to a group of 50 to the finish line?
Or will it be a solo attack or even a small bunch that decides the world champion?

Discuss.

Im surprised to see you start this thread ACF because i thought you would be in amongst those staunchly defending the course given your love for everything Australian. So well done on your fair mindedness (which unfortunately ends at the point your signature begins )

Personally i am a bit dissapointed. This is because i was told by people on here numerous times that it was a very hard course. "dont underestimate are little Geelong course" they said. "Cav doesnt stand a chance " they said. "Sprinters will be dropped on every lap" they said.

As a result when i heard the Eurosport team talk about Cav being a favourite for the Worlds, i laughed. I thought to myself, my friends on Cn forums know more than Harmon about cycling, theyve seen the course, Cav wont stand a chance. Hell from what i was reading here i even began to think maybe the likes of Schleck and Contador should come and have a good go.

Then i saw the U23 race

 

[Parrulo]

the final km isn't steep enough. should be at 8%. and the last climb should be closer to the last km so the sprinters would have a hard time to live up.

personally the u23 race was a desaster with no1 but a couple of guys(oliveira, gallopain, attacking. worse u23 race in the past 3/4 years(even the race peter velits won on a mass sprint was better. mostly cus teams like portugal were on a never ended streak of attacks.

 

[Sasquatch]

If you managed to watch the race you will see they took it easy for the first 8 laps. It wasn't raced hard until later on in the course.

The elite men will race it hard from the first lap onwards to drop as many sprinters as they can. Freire and Pozzato can't beat Farrar etc so their countries will smash it to give them a good chance to win.

Nothing can be read into the Under23 race. Nothing.

 

[Nicoper]

This is a nice video of the course from riders perspective

http://www.cyclingtipsblog.com/2010/01/2010-world-championship-course-geelong-australia/

 

[hfer07]

I-like many other fellows- am taking the u23 as a reference-not for the outcome, but how the course was used by the riders throughout the last hour--and I'm inclined now to see that the sprinters might have a chance, if the circumstances are in place-because quite frankly-I noticed last night that the climbs aren't going to be that decisive/crucial this time around....

 

[Dutchsmurf]

If you managed to watch the race you will see they took it easy for the first 8 laps. It wasn't raced hard until later on in the course.

The elite men will race it hard from the first lap onwards to drop as many sprinters as they can. Freire and Pozzato can't beat Farrar etc so their countries will smash it to give them a good chance to win.

Nothing can be read into the Under23 race. Nothing.

So there weren't any counties that didn't want a sprint in the U23 race? I agree that the U23 race won't be the same as the elite men one. But just because some counties need to drop the sprinters, doesn't mean they will make it a hard race. All of those countries will want as many people as possible left in the final too. So unless 3-4 countries cooperate and/or the first escape is a big group, it won't surprise me if they wait until the last 2 laps to start racing.

 

[pedaling squares]

I always predict a wrong outcome on these polls - always choosing with heart instead of head. True to form I chose a small sprint finish. So expect a gallop.

I think if we have a large bunch together on the final climb the big Italian team will have frigged things up royally and I give them a little more credit than that.

 

[slowoldman]

I'm throwing my hat in the ring. I say small bunch (more toward the 20 than the 60). I think Freire will win his 4th. (although I wouldn't be upset by a Cancellara victory)

Racers make the course, it will be a hard race.

 

[Walkman]

Racers make the course, it will be a hard race.

What he said.

 

[davis_123]

I think some of you are underestimating the ability of the real climbers.

Even if there is 50-60 riders left on the last lap an attack from a real climber on the base of the 1st climb will get at least 30 seconds ahead by the top of the hill, if 2-3 others follow it then its race over for the rest.

Guys like Farrar, Cav & Oscar can only hope the climbers don't get to far ahead and hope the teams that missed out chase for them.

 

[Winterfold]

Ferminal - I shifted my argument in that other thread as I thought about it some more - my previous post was about who would work for Cav - but the one you quoted is more about which teams have a vested interest in keeping it together for as long as possible.

Aus - Goss
GB - Cav
Norway - Thor
USA - Farrar
Spain - Freire

Like I said Pozzato and Gilbert could both still win from the bunch on the last lap, as could Spartacus.

So they still have a chance even if it sticks together and its not the end of the race - so how hard will they try to break it up?

This is all speculation but it is a lot of fun.

The only thing I am certain is that is going to be a hard day for riders like Jeremy Hunt that's for sure.

 

[ak-zaaf]

Freire is going to happen.