Is the worlds course really that hard?

[kanari]

Ferminal - I shifted my argument in that other thread as I thought about it some more - my previous post was about who would work for Cav - but the one you quoted is more about which teams have a vested interest in keeping it together for as long as possible.

Aus - Goss
GB - Cav
Norway - Thor
USA - Farrar
Spain - Freire

Depends on what you mean with as long as possible. I think both Freire and Thor would be very interested in seeing Cav, Farrar and Greipel dropped a good while before the sprint. For Freire or Thor to win they need the race to be just hard enough to see the fastest sprinters dropped without getting dropped themselves. Which could happen of course but I am not so sure...

 

[ak-zaaf]

Depends on what you mean with as long as possible. I think both Freire and Thor would be very interested in seeing Cav, Farrar and Greipel dropped a good while before the sprint. For Freire or Thor to win they need the race to be just hard enough to see the fastest sprinters dropped without getting dropped themselves. Which could happen of course but I am not so sure...

I think it will go something like Madrid 2005. A snoozefest that will open up in the last few rounds. The true sprinters will be dropped on the last climbs, a small group of favorites will be caught within 1 km of the line.
Best sprinter left will win, I'm going with Freire or Pozzato. Spain and Italy will make it happen.
But lets just hope the race will be played as hard as possible and there will be a group of 10 left with 3 laps to go.

 

[zapata]

Ferminal - I shifted my argument in that other thread as I thought about it some more - my previous post was about who would work for Cav - but the one you quoted is more about which teams have a vested interest in keeping it together for as long as possible.

Aus - Goss
GB - Cav
Norway - Thor
USA - Farrar
Spain - Freire

Like I said Pozzato and Gilbert could both still win from the bunch on the last lap, as could Spartacus.

So they still have a chance even if it sticks together and its not the end of the race - so how hard will they try to break it up?

This is all speculation but it is a lot of fun.

The only thing I am certain is that is going to be a hard day for riders like Jeremy Hunt that's for sure.

I think neither hushovd nor freire is interested in keeping it together, if this means sprinting against cavendish. Norway with a team of three will not have much influence on the racing anyhow, just try to stay close to the front and hope one of them is there in the end.

Spain will help make it hard to drop cavendish and farrar. Bettini doesn't think it'll be a big sprint, and has made it his business to see to it that it won't. I think pozzato will win, but hope for freire..

 

[Angliru]

Freire is going to happen.

I hope you're right. Would be a fitting close to a great career, provided he chose to call it quits afterwards.

 

[Winterfold]

I agree that ideally Thor and Freire would like Cav etc dropped but if that means racing hard against Gilbert, Pozzato etc then there will be fewer teams to help bring them back so they can outsprint them

It will be a fine balance and I hope it is a race rather than no attacking til last lap (although it could play out conservatively) - As a Brit it sticking together is our best chance but I would rather see a race as there is denmark next year

 

[La Vie Claire]

The only way Cance is going to win this is by a solo attack. I don't think he'll settle for bronze this time.

 

[The Hitch]

I hope you're right. Would be a fitting close to a great career, provided he chose to call it quits afterwards.

Freire has 3 world championships and one of the greatest sprinter careers ever. I like the guy but as far as im concerned - let someone else have some glory as well. Just the way i view things.

 

[velosiped]

This will be a race with lots of suspense.
The favorites want to get rid of the true sprinters, which will require explosion up the hills at least on the last 2-3 laps.
No one want to hit the finishing ascent with the dreaded red norwegian jerseys in their canthuses. How to get rid of them? High speed during the whole race will kill Boasson - and Sagan. Are they there at the end one of them might win. Hushovd must be eliminated maybe on the last hill. Same with Freire. The escapes must work together to the end to keep the distance. If not ...
Spartacus must go solo to win.
The Sanchezes might be up for something. Watch out!
A finish with the favs, could Breschel or Feillu be there to match Gilbert/Pozzato/Kolobnev?
The french will attack. How's Chavanel's form? Geslin dark horse?
Attack on last hill and tempo towards the finish: look out for Evans, Schleck, Velits. Why not Brajkovic? Mayday, mayday, the favs will probably have no helpers here.
Winner? 20-25 man group - Hushovd/Freire.
5-10 man group - Gilbert/Pozzato.
Solo - Evans/Schleck.

I can't wait ...

 

[The Hitch]

The only way Cance is going to win this is by a solo attack. I don't think he'll settle for bronze this time.

I think he might. When he got olympic bronze he said it was like winning gold. He hasnt got a world championship rr one yet. So he would be happy with a gold bronze combo. But obv he will go for a win.

As i said, his best chance is to attack on the descent. I think there might be a small group ahead at that point. In the tt he was doing 90k on the descent. If he goes then he could try to bridge the gap then win bunch sprint.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Im surprised to see you start this thread ACF because i thought you would be in amongst those staunchly defending the course given your love for everything Australian. So well done on your fair mindedness (which unfortunately ends at the point your signature begins )

Personally i am a bit dissapointed. This is because i was told by people on here numerous times that it was a very hard course. "dont underestimate are little Geelong course" they said. "Cav doesnt stand a chance " they said. "Sprinters will be dropped on every lap" they said.

As a result when i heard the Eurosport team talk about Cav being a favourite for the Worlds, i laughed. I thought to myself, my friends on Cn forums know more than Harmon about cycling, theyve seen the course, Cav wont stand a chance. Hell from what i was reading here i even began to think maybe the likes of Schleck and Contador should come and have a good go.

Then i saw the U23 race

Don't worry too much. The more I think about it the more i think that in the u23 race, it wasn't in many teams interests to split it up and the teams that didn't really have a sprinter didn't really try to split it up. Though I do think they need to push the tempo about 5 - 6 laps out and i think the belgians and the italians will enforce that.

Don't beleive Harmon and it is a hard course.

 

[skidmark]

I'm interested in what might happen if it does end up in a mass sprint. With the uphill push to the line, even if Cav was there, would he win? I doubt it. Remember the stage of the Tour last year to Barcelona? Hushovd won, although IIRC that was a shorter and steeper drag up to the finish. But still, guys like Hushovd (or even Eddy Boss), Sagan (if he can last 260km), Friere, Pozzato are more likely bets on an uphill finish than Cav and Griepel (and to a lesser degree, Farrar). Thoughts?

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

The climb is difficult, it really kicks up at the end. But it is very far from the end, but yeah it totally depends on how the peleton race it. If a team want to, they can dash the hopes of many riders.

@skidmark

the last 150-200m def. ramps up, the finish suits friere most imo. Gilbert would do well on this kinda finish also.

 

[who dat]

The amount of people left at the end depends on which of the big teams want to push. To split the race up the tempo needs to be raised with at least 5 laps left. I wouldn't be suprised if Australia tryed to really put the hurt on all the sprinters so that Cadel can go for a solo victory on the last lap.

 

[ingsve]

I think it might be hard to go in the climbs and stay away unless it's a group that goes and the chase gets disorganised. It does seem hard enough to drop the best sprinters though so the winner will probably be someone who can sprint and climb well.

 

[Tuarts]

I think that Aus' strategy should be have Goss as leader with Davis and Cadel as protected riders. That way Goss has a chance of being there at the finish and if he fails, Davis will hopefully be there so he defaults. Cadel does his own thing but tries to go with any breakaway on the last lap. Best way to cover all options imo. Of course anyone of the others to go in a breakaway (Porte ftw/breakaway).

 

[Ferminal]

Australia's strategy should be:

Work hard to drop Cav/Farrar/Greipel, the only ones who might beat Goss in a sprint.

In the case that Goss can't survive, work even harder to set it up for Evans.

If Evans can't get away, hope Davis is hanging on to sprint for a medal.

I see we agree!

Davis is still a question mark, I know he was good at the Vuelta but this is a full day of racing, he's made the finish in MSR but who knows whether he's at career best form or not, it's the right time to peak (after looking so out of shape at the start of the season).

 

[Praetor]

There are more riders than just Cav/Farrar/Greipel who can beat Goss on this finish.

A lot more, I feel that Goss is a bit overrated.

 

[Tuarts]

Yeah Davis may be an unkown Ferminal but so is Goss and at least having those two, it means 2 options in a sprint. I think the course suits Davis (but others more) which is wh he was chosen over McEwen.

 

[Ferminal]

There are more riders than just Cav/Farrar/Greipel who can beat Goss on this finish.

A lot more, I feel that Goss is a bit overrated.

Really?

The only one at the worlds who is faster in a straight sprint is Cav...

Freire/Hushovd can't even top10 in a bunch sprint anymore. Sagan? He's won one "bunch" sprint all season. Greg van Avermaet? Bole?

EBH is the only one outside of those three in this field who could "challenge" Goss in a sprint. Goss would win maybe 1-3/10 against Cav, be even with Greipel/Farrar and win 5-7 against EBH.

The uphill finish is only significant if you time it badly or have no leadout, if Goss is there Evans, Davis and Gerrans will probably be there too so that's the leadout sorted (more just keeping the pace high rather than a Renshaw-esque setup) just have to finish the job.

Edit: Forgot Bozic, I think he would go OK vs Goss (win a few), he could survive longer than Cav etc too. Hondo? Could survive for a while too.

 

[Praetor]

Really?

The only one at the worlds who is faster in a straight sprint is Cav...

Freire/Hushovd can't even top10 in a bunch sprint anymore. Sagan? He's won one "bunch" sprint all season. Greg van Avermaet? Bole?

Let's name names not just make absurd suggestions. EBH is the only one outside of those three in this field who could "challenge" Goss in a sprint. Goss would win maybe 1-3/10 against Cav, be even with Greipel/Farrar and win 5-7 against EBH.

If Goss is such a superman in the sprint, where are his big wins? One Giro stage and a win in Plouay (which had a rather disappointingly weak starting field) are hardly impressove.

 

[Ferminal]

If Goss is such a superman in the sprint, where are his big wins? One Giro stage and a win in Plouay (which had a rather disappointingly weak starting field) are hardly impressove.

Where are anyone's big wins?

What bunch sprints have all these other mystery riders who are faster than Goss at a finish won?

No one has been a dominant sprinter this season aside from Cavendish, Farrar, Greipel and Petacchi. Of course Freire won MSR but aside from that he's been scarce.

Trailing those four is a long list of candidates. If Goss wasn't a leadout man for 2 GTs and many other stage races he would have a better record this season.

You can look at wins all you like, but at the end of the day it comes down to speed and there's few people who can pull away from Cav like Goss was doing in the Vuelta (Stage 12 the perfect example).

 

[taiwan]

If Goss is such a superman in the sprint, where are his big wins? One Giro stage and a win in Plouay (which had a rather disappointingly weak starting field) are hardly impressove.

Both those wins had Farrar in second, and he has limited opportunities to ride for himself.

 

[Francois the Postman]

I would love to see Freire bookend his 2010 season with another win. For a multitude of reasons, but mostly because a 4th world title, covering more than a decade in total, would be just awesome.

Then again, since most folk seem to be unaware that he has already bagged 3 world titles and are totally giddy about someone getting his first, or possibly 2nd, they would probably wouldn't notice mr Invisible picked another awesome lead-out wheel, crossed the line first to add another top prize to an impressive palmares, and hand it to Goss instead.

The circuit seems to give him at least a chance, and with Oscar there is no way we can figure out what his Vuelta form actually signals for his form here.

 

[search]

Both those wins had Farrar in second, and he has limited opportunities to ride for himself.

both of that races were quite difficult, he seems to recover well and he's very fast if it's uphill, which could be to his favor tomorrow but he isn't experienced in doing a 250km+ race full gas and never did a world championship race, which is quite unique in itself. I still think Davis is the one for Australia, he's faster than Goss and more experienced

 

[hrotha]

Going into these worlds, everyone has been saying how hard this course in geelong is. But after the under 23's road race (...)

Not me. All along I've been saying we'd have to wait until the u23 RR to tell. [/DT]

It will all depend on how well Farrar and Greipel go.