Is UAE Over the Top?

[Squire]

Just to note for future self in 5 years time when the inevitable debate happens;

No, Torres wasn't some insane junior prodigy before he met Matxin and Gianetti. I don't want to hear about him lapping riders 10 years his senior when he was a 9 year old because he wasn't.

I get that you're coming at this from the doping angle, but I find this interesting also from another angle. I've been quite a vocal critic of the narrative that Matxin is supposedly some god-tier scout, and I've argued that it's mostly down to the ability to throw the largest amount of money at the youngsters that every man and his dog can see have massive potential. But I gotta give him props for Torres. Regardless of doping, he's clearly a massive talent that has gone somewhat under the radar until this spring.

 

[Pozzovivo]

There will always be doping in the peleton but the question is if it is systematic, widespread and effective. In the era of EPO and blood doping this was absolutely the case. Until last year we can fairly say that there was not enough evidence to make the case. This year, exceptional progress of some riders and performances that seem to defy physical constraints are at least suspicious. It may be too early for the stories to surface but if it's doping we will hear about it soon enough. I cannot imagine that - if it is systematic and widespread - it can be hidden for long. The smartphone is everywhere.

Hear hear!

 

[E_F_]

Cycling is the only sport that actually tests a lot and keep riders checked within reason in the bio-passport.

Yeah, the bio-passport doesn't matter. They just say they're altitude training, then the UCI let them have whatever values.

To compare the speed and performances from 30 years ago to today's is very difficult. Of course the athletes are much better today. It's an elite performance sport now.

I don't really buy this. EPO with no testing is as peak performance as it gets. Other sports bear this out. The thing is cycling is pretty simple - it's just an endurance sport; it's all about carrying oxygen. At a point you need to dope to improve in that area.

The definition is not using substances or methods that are banned by Wada and or the UCI.

WADA and the UCI are both too lax and pro doping for such a definition to really work.

But not a single high profile rider have been caught recently, and not a single clean rider who surely must have learned that this whole juiced up peloton that supposedly were riding clean said anything?? Very unlikely. In the 90's and 00's there were stories all the time. Now nothing.

Loads of riders are making statements about how they're better than ever, yet are slower than ever relative to the peloton. But as you said the sport is more professional now, perhaps that applies to keeping everything shut down. That seems to generally be true, even without getting into doping.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Well @E_F_ ,

1. Bio-passport: While some might exploit altitude training as an excuse but what do we really know about this?. dismissing the bio-passport entirely underestimates its effectiveness in limiting more than catching cheaters.

2. Modern advancements in training, nutrition, and technology can explain improved performances. It's not just about doping; sport science has advanced significantly. Look at old bike races and their bikes and clothing looks laughable. Aero matters a lot even if people laugh at this. It's emprically true. The research is very clear on this.

3. Definition of Doping: WADA and UCI are very flawed i agree but that is the definition nevertheless actually. but their evolving standards and regulations have made an impact in reducing doping, but does it make it a fairer playing field? Not sure.

4. The lack of recent high-profile cases may reflect improved anti-doping measures rather than just better cover-ups. The sport might genuinely be cleaner today. I really think so anyway. Love cycling.

 

[Ruklaw]

The thing about the bio passport, is if you get a rider young and get him on a blood boosting program before he has entered bio passport testing, then you can set a higher baseline for that testing - your young talent 'naturally' has a high haematocrit, and you can boost them even higher when they go on 'altitude' camp.

With Froome I always wondered if the whole Bilharzia story was cover for him getting on a blood boosting program - a good excuse for him to suddenly have a lot more red blood cells.

I was reflecting the other day that I feel with Froome and Sky we actually probably know all the secrets now.

We know that British Cycling were able to get early access to ketone drinks way back in 2012 - no doubt this means Sky were also using them.

We know that they were using triamcinolone to help with cutting, which explains why they were all so crazy thin but still powerful. Salbutamol was probably also part of this.

We also know they liked a bit of tramadol, which was no doubt used in a cocktail with a mixture of uppers (caffeine etc... maybe the salbutamol) to help riders push on for the big mountain stages.

I think professionally applied these together (with maybe a few cheeky little blood bags kept within the passport parameters) are enough to explain their dominance.

I don't know what riders are doing now, but the leap in performance post covid is crazy - huffing Carbon Monoxide is probably part of it, but it does feel like there is something else which has quite rapid effect (like literally, boosts performance several percent on that day) but which is either expensive or otherwise difficult to deploy repeatedly, and seems to be used in a targeted way - perhaps the lugworm blood we've heard rumoured?

 

[E_F_]

Modern advancements in training, nutrition, and technology can explain improved performances. It's not just about doping; sport science has advanced significantly. Look at old bike races and their bikes and clothing looks laughable. Aero matters a lot even if people laugh at this. It's emprically true. The research is very clear on this.

Well if we look at the watts per kilogram the clothing and bikes are taken into account. I'm well aware that aerodynamics are hugely important. It's honestly insulting that you seem to think I don't know that. The thing is nutrition really doesn't explain the watts. Nutrition makes it possible to achieve your highest level of performance in races, it doesn't change your highest level. Now the training is doing a lot of heavy lifting. I don't think it can have the effect we're seeing with massive leaps in performance every year. I don't think that makes any sense.

 

[nightowl]

A big issue I have in general with the advanced nutrition, aero, training, etc. arguments are that they don’t really match up to performance trends over the years. It would be a somewhat convincing argument if we’d seen a steady increase in performance since the drop off in the late 2000s to reach where we are today - but that is not the case.

Instead, performances basically flatlined for a decade, apart from the odd eyebrow-raiser, before exploding at an exponential rate in the last 4 years. We heard constantly during all those years of stagnation about the gains being made in training and aerodynamics, but they apparently accomplished nothing compared to what they did in the winter of 2019/20 and have been doing since.

Essentially, what we really need to explain is not how 30 years of advancement has gotten riders to this level, but how it all happened in just 4 years - something I haven’t seen a convincing non-PED answer to.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Well if we look at the watts per kilogram the clothing and bikes are taken into account. I'm well aware that aerodynamics are hugely important. It's honestly insulting that you seem to think I don't know that. The thing is nutrition really doesn't explain the watts. Nutrition makes it possible to achieve your highest level of performance in races, it doesn't change your highest level. Now the training is doing a lot of heavy lifting. I don't think it can have the effect we're seeing with massive leaps in performance every year. I don't think that makes any sense.

Didn't try to insult you in the slightest. Just sharing my thoughts on it. Sorry if it was presented in the wrong way. I obviously assume you know as much as me - but many people read the posts so i'm trying to "overexplain" my viewpoints some times. Otherwise I get "what about this" in the next posts. Sorry again.

We talked about comparing performances (often by comparing times on segments and race speed). Many people scuff about areo when comparing climbing times. But it matters as we both know. 90's was not peak performance in so many ways. The doping accounted for why they went so fast even with bad training, bad nuitrition, bad bikes etc (relatively to today). Thus, when people are insinuting doping because riders do as well as doped riders on climbs today - I find many explanations to that don't include doping.

To the second point, nutrition do make a difference also for peak level not just mitigating fatigue. Just taking a caffeinepill before doing an all out effort consistently show improvement in peak performance. Pro teams certaintly seem to believe that bicarbinate and ketones also help. Evidence is quite mixed for last time I read a scientifc review on this. I don't know whatever else riders consume before, during, and after stages that also help.

I totally agree with you that seeing massive leaps in performance is strange. Pog and JV in the tour - crazy stuff. But outliers occur in any dataset.

Torres yesterday is a bit harder to assess imo. We rarely see riders in top shape just roll up easy to a climb and smash it. When yates and almeida did that in Tour d Suisse they did huge numbers! - so completely fresh may just be different.

 

[hayneplane]

Just to note for future self in 5 years time when the inevitable debate happens;

No, Torres wasn't some insane junior prodigy before he met Matxin and Gianetti. I don't want to hear about him lapping riders 10 years his senior when he was a 9 year old because he wasn't.

Torres was a good but not great junior same as Widar. Pogacar was also a good junior but not dominant and even in the under 23s was never an all conquering force as even in winning L’Avenir he didn’t finish higher than 3rd in any stage.

Remco is really an outlier in terms of being the very very best at 17 (2nd year junior) and continuing that progression through each and every year (barring the crash impacted period of late 2020-mid 2021).

 

[Netserk]

There will always be doping in the peleton but the question is if it is systematic, widespread and effective. In the era of EPO and blood doping this was absolutely the case. Until last year we can fairly say that there was not enough evidence to make the case. This year, exceptional progress of some riders and performances that seem to defy physical constraints are at least suspicious. It may be too early for the stories to surface but if it's doping we will hear about it soon enough. I cannot imagine that - if it is systematic and widespread - it can be hidden for long. The smartphone is everywhere.

Do you believe that there is no "systematic, widespread and effective" doping in NBA? NFL? Do they not too have smartphones?

 

[Nick2413]

If it’s training, nutrition, and bike tech, we’d have seen steady gains for the last 20 years. Instead speeds slowly declined for about a decade starting in the 00’s then basically flatlined and then exponentially increased starting around 2020. All the bike tech in the world can’t climb its way up a mountain and training and nutrition didn’t just make a 20 year leap overnight.

 

[Pozzovivo]

If it’s training, nutrition, and bike tech, we’d have seen steady gains for the last 20 years. Instead speeds slowly declined for about a decade starting in the 00’s then basically flatlined and then exponentially increased starting around 2020. All the bike tech in the world can’t climb its way up a mountain and training and nutrition didn’t just make a 20 year leap overnight.

Sure but breaktroughs are possible in science and innovation is not linear. It's not clear why we would need to model performances linearly.

 

[Nick2413]

Sure but breaktroughs are possible in science and innovation is not linear.

They definitely are, hence the improvement in doping in the last 4 years. Training and nutrition is not adding 10% W/kg to the best athletes in the world overnight.

 

[Squire]

Torres was a good but not great junior same as Widar. Pogacar was also a good junior but not dominant and even in the under 23s was never an all conquering force as even in winning L’Avenir he didn’t finish higher than 3rd in any stage.

Remco is really an outlier in terms of being the very very best at 17 (2nd year junior) and continuing that progression through each and every year (barring the crash impacted period of late 2020-mid 2021).

Don't agree on the Widar/Torres comparison. Widar was arguably the best junior in the world last year. Torres is not comparable whatsoever. He raced almost exclusively Spanish races and didn't even dominate there. And did nothing in the races he did outside of Spain.

 

[peterfin]

Do you believe that there is no "systematic, widespread and effective" doping in NBA? NFL? Do they not too have smartphones?

I don't know. I don't follow those sports. However, they are not the same as endurance sports where doping has a major and more easily measurable impact. My point was that it's much more difficult to cover up doping in cycling compared to 20 years ago. So if it's systematic and widespread, evidence should surface sooner today than in the past.

 

[Monoxidator]

I don't know. I don't follow those sports. However, they are not the same as endurance sports where doping has a major and more easily measurable impact. My point was that it's much more difficult to cover up doping in cycling compared to 20 years ago. So if it's systematic and widespread, evidence should surface sooner today than in the past.

In addition, team sports and skill sports have more variables that muddy the waters. You can look at things like sprint performance, average speed of running during matches that are tracked by advanced analytics, and that gives some clues, but even there changes in tactics and strategies influence the numbers.

What makes me laugh is the Poggy defenders saying that you can explain Pogacar by the fact that he's a "Once in 50 year talent" and meanwhile every random Nils Pollitt and Pablo Torres is suddenly producing legendary performances once they join UAE.

 

[Monoxidator]

Don't agree on the Widar/Torres comparison. Widar was arguably the best junior in the world last year. Torres is not comparable whatsoever. He raced almost exclusively Spanish races and didn't even dominate there. And did nothing in the races he did outside of Spain.

I thought Pogacar was a once in a lifetime talent though ...

 

[Squire]

I thought Pogacar was a once in a lifetime talent though ...

No idea what Pogacar has to do with my post that you quoted? But Pog being head and shoulders above everybody else was also not obvious when he was a junior or U23.

 

[Monoxidator]

No idea what Pogacar has to do with my post that you quoted? But Pog being head and shoulders above everybody else was also not obvious when he was a junior or U23.

Was trying to point out that what you're saying about Torres was said about Pog. Pog's main defense right now by his fans, is that he's a once in 50-year talent. If someone comes up from the juniors and is doing Pog-things like 7w/kg for 45 minutes at altitude at the end of a big race, then that argument starts to fall flat.

 

[noob]

If we are going to argue that training, nutrition, equipment etc is all improved and smart phones would leak info so there would be a ton of rumours around then we can also say; PR has improved a ton in the last 30/ 20 years so lying skills should improve as well. Also media is all in the hands of whatever field they're playing so they can't afford a scandal. Etc etc. Corruption is also on the rise so all this goes both ways.

Everyone gains from keeping quiet.

Also riders might not know what they're getting and parents wanting their kids to become a cycling pro might not have the best ethics etc etc etc.

It can be seen in both ways.

Oh and btw; riders getting caught always chosing their careers and never coming clean is to me the strongest indicator that elite sports are by default rotten to the core.