martinvickers said:
AVERAGE climbing speeds are down from the Festina heights. That's a simple verifiable fact.
Now you said speeds. Not placings. Speeds not placings.
Lets be clear here.
My argument is the speeds are not down. They may be for the bottom end of the field, I've not verified, only because racing is much different these days. One leader and 8 riders riding hard prior then coming in several minutes down.
However.
The Top 5. The Top 10 on climbs are climbing as fast if not faster than 1994-1998. They are also the same as 1999-2005. 2006 and 07 with 08 bring an anomaly until the riders worked out the passport and how to beat it.
The speeds are faster than the pre-Festina period. Fact.
I'd be happy for you to provide a link that they are slower? But you haven't.
Links per my claim?
Sure.
Average speed of the entire Tours year by year.
http://stats.areppim.com/stats/stats_tourdefrance_vitesse.htm
The tour is just as fast if not faster than Roche in 87 but to be fair they shortened the distance from 88 onwards. It's still much fast than those days.
Right though EPO-era the Tour hasn't slowed down by any stretch.
Notably "the Sky era" - 2011 onwards speeds are well and truly on the increase.
Since 2010, the average speed of the Tour winner resumed its ascending trend, approaching the long-term linear trend (red line in the chart). One may suspect the doings of illegal sports medical practices to be responsible for such high level performances.
It should also be noted that about 10% more riders finish the Tour today than in 1996-2003.
Better recovery on doping products maybe?
http://velonews.competitor.com/2011/07/news/186088_186088
74 1987 36.645 Stephen ROCHE
75 1988 38.909 Pedro DELGADO
76 1989 37.487 Greg LEMOND
77 1990 38.621 Greg LEMOND
78 1991 38.747 Miguel INDURAIN
79 1992 39.504 Miguel INDURAIN
80 1993 38.709 Miguel INDURAIN
81 1994 38.383 Miguel INDURAIN
82 1995 39.193 Miguel INDURAIN
83 1996 39.227 Bjarne RIIS ¹
84 1997 39.237 Jan ULLRICH
85 1998 39.983 Marco PANTANI
86 1999 40.276 Lance ARMSTRONG ²
87 2000 39.569 Lance ARMSTRONG ²
88 2001 40.070 Lance ARMSTRONG ²
89 2002 39.920 Lance ARMSTRONG ²
90 2003 40.940 Lance ARMSTRONG ²
91 2004 40.553 Lance ARMSTRONG ²
92 2005 41.654 Lance ARMSTRONG ²
93 2006 40.784 Oscar PEREIRO ³
94 2007 39.228 Alberto CONTADOR
95 2008 40.492 Carlos SASTRE
96 2009 40.316 Alberto CONTADOR
97 2010 39.590 Andy SCHLECK ⁴
98 2011 39.788 Cadel EVANS
99 2012 39.826 Bradley WIGGINS
100 2013 40.547 Christopher FROOME
Speed increase since 1903 : 57.9%
Average speed change per Tour : 0.42%
Further of note.
Number or Tour de France rider sanctioned at some point as follows:
34% of all group riders;
60% of 10-top ranked riders;
72% of 3-top ranked riders;
85% of all winners.
http://stats.areppim.com/archives/insight_dopingtour2908.htm
So to the climbs. What's interesting d'Huez aside 1994-1998 climbing times just don't appear anywhere. Average either.
Which tells you it's not fact at all.
There is no evidence that othe whole climbing times are down.
In fact it's too the contrary courtesy of Chris Froome.
Alpe d'Huez -
1994 - 1994:13,8 km@8%---37:15---average speed 22.23 km/h(Marco Pantani)
---40:43---average speed 20.34 km/h(Roberto Conti)
1995 - 1995:13,8 km@8%---36:40---average speed 22.58 km/h(Marco Pantani)
1997 - 1997:13,8 km@8%---36:53---average speed 22.45 km/h(Marco Pantani)
2004 - 2004:13,8 km@8%---37:36---average speed 22.02 km/h(Lance Armstrong)
2006 - 2006:13,8 km@8%---38:35---average speed 21.46 km/h(Landis-Kloden)
---40:45---average speed 20.32 km/h(Fränk Schleck)
2011 - 2011:13,8 km@8%---41:25---average speed 19.99 km/h(Samuel Sanchez)
---42:02---average speed 19.70 km/h(Pierre Rolland)
2013 - 2013:13,8 km@8%---39:48---average speed 20.80 km/h(Nairo Quintana)
---43:02---average speed 19.24 km/h(Christophe Riblon)
Bonascare
The Top 20 are from 2000 onwards. Much faster than 1994-1998
1. 2001: 22:55 Roberto Laiseka 23.56 km/h
2. 2001: 22:57 Lance Armstrong 23.53 km/h
3. 2013: 23:12 Chris Froome 23.28 km/h
4. 2003: 23:18 Jan Ullrich 23.18 km/h
5. 2001: 23:20 Jan Ullrich 23.14 km/h
6. 2003: 23:20 Haimar Zubeldia 23.14 km/h
7. 2003: 23:25 Lance Armstrong 23.06 km/h
8. 2003: 23:35 Alexander Vinokourov 22.90 km/h
9. 2003: 23:37 Ivan Basso 22.87 km/h
10. 2005: 23:40 Lance Armstrong 22.82 km/h
11. 2005: 23:42 Ivan Basso 22.78 km/h
12. 2001: 23:43 Oscar Sevilla 22.77 km/h
13. 2001: 23:43 Joseba Beloki 22.77 km/h
14. 2010: 23:46 Denis Menchov 22.72 km/h
15. 2010: 23:46 Samuel Sánchez 22.72 km/h
16. 2005: 24:00 Jan Ullrich 22.50 km/h
17. 2010: 24:00 Andy Schleck 22.50 km/h
18. 2010: 24:00 Joaquim Rodriguez 22.50 km/h
19. 2010: 24:00 Robert Gesink 22.50 km/h
20. 2010: 24:00 Alberto Contador 22.50 km/h
21. 2010: 24:00 Jurgen Van Den Broeck 22.50 km/h
Ventoux:
Same with Ventoux - mind you ITT times, only doper-head Vaughters from 1999 ITT makes the list from Festina sorta days:
1. 2004: 55:51 Iban Mayo 23.10 km/h
2. 2004: 56:26 Tyler Hamilton 22.86 km/h
3. 1999: 56:50 Jonathan Vaughters 22.70 km/h
4. 2004: 56:54 Oscar Sevilla 22.67 km/h
5. 1999: 57:33 Alexander Vinokourov 22.42 km/h
6. 1994: 57:34 Marco Pantani 22.41 km/h
7. 1999: 57:34 Wladimir Belli 22.41 km/h
8. 2004: 57:39 Juan Miguel Mercado 22.38 km/h
9. 1999: 57:42 Joseba Beloki 22.36 km/h
10. 2004: 57:49 Lance Armstrong 22.31 km/h
11. 1999: 57:52 Lance Armstrong 22.29 km/h
12. 2004: 58:14 Inigo Landaluze 22.15 km/h
13. 1999: 58:15 Kevin Livingston 22.15 km/h
14. 1999: 58:31 David Moncoutie 22.05 km/h
15. 2004: 58:35 José Enrique Gutierrez 22.02 km/h
16. 2009: 58:45 Andy Schleck 21.96 km/h
17. 2009: 58:45 Alberto Contador 21.96 km/h
18. 2009: 58:48 Lance Armstrong 21.94 km/h
19. 2009: 58:50 Fränk Schleck 21.93 km/h
20. 1999: 58:51 Unai Osa 21.92 km/h
Ax 3 Domains -
Expert Scientist Ross Tucker predicted the following:
http://www.sportsscientists.com/2013/07/ax-3-domaines-history-vams-and-performance-predictions/
In terms of a prediction, I mentioned that the pVAM method predicts a 24:17. I expect it will be faster than that, because we’re only in the first week of the Tour so riders are fresh, it’s the first mountain finish so motivation will be higher, and the model prediction is based on three GC riders anyway – the best will be faster. If I had to gaze into my crystal ball, I’d predict a time between 23:40 and 23:50, corresponding to between 6.2 and 6.3 W/kg.
And post stage, one minute faster. Yikes!
It was fast, very fast. The 23:14 ascent of Ax-3-Domaines puts Froome in third on the all-time list for the climb, behind only Laiseka and Armstrong in 2001. The VAM of 1715 m/h converts to a power output of 6.3 W/kg (Ferrari method) and about 6.5 W/kg with other models (CPL, rst). Very fast.
http://www.sportsscientists.com/2013/07/froomes-first-mountain-performance-cue-debate/
Ax3 times are all the same as the rest.