Itzulia Basque Country 2021, Spain, April 5 - April 10

[Red Rick]

Now for an unexpected statement, but I feel sorry for Sepp Kuss. Like, this race embodies steep climbs that justify Sepp effort more than any other race on the calendar - even the TT finishes on a steep climb - he's clearly on good form as shown in Catalunya, and he doesn't even get to start.

Like, what's the point in deploying him at all if you aren't going to use him in a race which would seem tailor-made for him, as it is historically all about stages that finish on the steep climb? Is that little descent from Usartza to Arrate really so much of a deterrent?

It makes no matter. On April 21nd, Sepp Kuss has his appointment with destiny. Fields shall be spintered. Records shall be shattered.

 

[Eeslliw]

Now for an unexpected statement, but I feel sorry for Sepp Kuss. Like, this race embodies steep climbs that justify Sepp effort more than any other race on the calendar - even the TT finishes on a steep climb - he's clearly on good form as shown in Catalunya, and he doesn't even get to start.

Like, what's the point in deploying him at all if you aren't going to use him in a race which would seem tailor-made for him, as it is historically all about stages that finish on the steep climb? Is that little descent from Usartza to Arrate really so much of a deterrent?

I don't know. I think he got quite a few opportunities lately (Vuelta last year, UAE, Catalunya) but he just didn't show enough. I am not giving up on him, but it seems he is at his best as super domestique.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Besties.

 

[Gregor_Slovenia]

I think on the opening time trial Pogi and Rogla will be above others level or two. Even though, I would be surprised if Primož can beat Pogačar on day one. But the margins will be small between them.

 

[Pinot's goat]

Pogacar or Roglic to win every stage.

 

[RedheadDane]

Pogacar or Roglic to win every stage.

As in, they will share the stages between them, or one of them will win all the stages?

 

[Lequack]

While you guys are forgetting Valverde, he is just out winning races on a Saturday afternoon.

 

[Pinot's goat]

As in, they will share the stages between them, or one of them will win all the stages?

Share.

 

[IndurainsTdF1994]

I don't know. I think he got quite a few opportunities lately (Vuelta last year, UAE, Catalunya) but he just didn't show enough. I am not giving up on him, but it seems he is at his best as super domestique.

Vuelta last year? The explicitly named team leaders were Dumoulin (first, who underperformed & then quit) and Roglic (second).

 

[IndurainsTdF1994]

As in, they will share the stages between them, or one of them will win all the stages?

Crazy prediction: Homeboy Landa will win one stage, and finish top 3 in the GC (or at least top 5, though that's not crazy). And no crashes by Roglic.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Realistically 4 out of 6 stages could indeed be won by one of them. Overall i feel that Roglič has an edge in this race. Pogačar on the other hand could trigger a successful long(er) range attack. Two things going against that are he would need to drop Roglič and for example on stage 6, if not before that, although TJV roster could result in Roglič getting isolated, there is still strong Ineos in the mix, that will do everything to prevent from that to happen.

P.S. Add some other individuals and teams capable of surprising in the mix and we likely have a nice and open race ahead.

 

[Big Doopie]

Pog will win.

easily.

 

[Velolover2]

I wouldn't underestimate Adam Yates on these types of climbs. Should at the very least be rated third.

I remember him dropping Roglic on the wall of Recanati.

 

[johnymax]

When I first saw the route a month ago, I thought Roglic is unbeatable here. Then with his crash at P-N, with Pogacar gaining momentum and the bad weather forecast, I changed my mind and had Pogačar slightly ahead. But today I've had a more detailed look at the weather forecast and it doesn't look as bad as it looked just a week ago. So I have them about even at the moment and there's where the bookies have them too. It's important, in my opinion, that the weather is OK for the ITT on stage 1. That way all the riders will probably have the same condition or close to it. If there had been rain, I could have seen Roglic taking no risks on the descent and lose about 15-20s more.

I also don't see Adam Yates inferior on the climbs to the two Slovenians. He'll probably lose time in the ITT, but I think he'll be right there battling for the GC victory.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

No rain tomorrow during the TT. Pogacar and Roglic to battle for the stage win and for the overall (I would give the former a small advantage tomorrow). This TT (despite small gaps) may set the tone for rest of the week (probably Yates will join them in the fight for the overall victory). Should be an interesting dynamic race.

 

[Gregor_Slovenia]

If Yates would want to contest for GC win he needs to beat Pog and Rog in finishing sprints. Bonifications. Hard to see that anyone here can beat duo Pog and Rog in finishing sprints.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

No rain tomorrow during the TT. Pogacar and Roglic to battle for the stage win and for the overall (I would give the former a small advantage tomorrow). This TT (despite small gaps) may set the tone for rest of the week (probably Yates will join them in the fight for the overall victory). Should be an interesting dynamic race.

Still Roglic will start as tenth rider at 14:12, while Pogacar will start last at 17:13.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I'm looking forward to the ITT tomorrow... Leknessund, Foss, Van Wilder and McNulty should all be able to do a very good ITT here. I'd expect all of them inside the top 20. And maybe one of them inside the top 5.

If Yates would want to contest for GC win he needs to beat Pog and Rog in finishing sprints. Bonifications. Hard to see that anyone here can beat duo Pog and Rog in finishing sprints.

What you mean is, he needs to drop them before the sprint?

 

[bajbar]

Still Roglic will start as tenth rider at 14:12, while Pogacar will start last at 17:13.

By the weather prognosis I have seen it will be sunny throughout, but the wind could pick up later in the afternoon, so maybe that is why Roglič has decided to start as early as possible.

 

[Lequack]

By the weather prognosis I have seen it will be sunny throughout, but the wind could pick up later in the afternoon, so maybe that is why Roglič has decided to start as early as possible.

Wind tomorrow:

Pretty strange to see so much time difference between the favorites start. Doesn't seem the wind will have much effect though, maybe Roglic just doesn't want to have Pogacar breathing down his neck like in TDF. I think he does best when just sticking to his plan.

 

[Salvarani]

Think we could see some exciting racing. Riders getting into breaks here and there. that might gain minutes if there is no control.

Definitely potential for an ambush on the last stage too.

 

[tobydawq]

Still Roglic will start as tenth rider at 14:12, while Pogacar will start last at 17:13.

Ugh that sucks. Just like the opening TT of the 2019 was such a drag because all the favourites started early apart from Yates.

 

[johnymax]

Still Roglic will start as tenth rider at 14:12, while Pogacar will start last at 17:13.

Yes the wind is expected to increase in the afternoon, but still I don't think it'll make that much of a difference. So in my opinion a strange decision. Roglic might end up winning the ITT, so he'll have to wait for 3 hours on the hot seat. Or the worst outcome for him would be to lead all the way to the last rider, just to see Pogačar steal the victory from him at the last moment. That is actually a very likely possible outcome and the one Roglic is very familiar with

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Still Roglic will start as tenth rider at 14:12, while Pogacar will start last at 17:13.

If Roglic wants to wait in the leader's chair for 3 hours only to get beaten at the end, it's his choice.

 

[Lequack]

Even if he doesn't get beaten he has to wait. Strange decision.