Itzulia Basque Country 2023 (April 3-8)

[Andy schleck]

Remco...if he was there

Vingegaard would bury remco on col de la loze.

First, he need to show that can beat a healthy roglic.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

They aren't really racing against anybody else in the first place right now. It's the big issue of this era and it's at its worst (so far) this year because almost every WT stage race has only had one of the big 4 in form, leading to one-sided non-event after one-sided non-event, now culminating in the first boring edition of Itzulia in a very long time. Evenepoel and Roglic are just as bad as Pogacar and Vingegaard in this regard, they were every bit as far ahead of the rest of the field in Catalunya as Vingegaard was here, it only gets forgotten because they had each other to fight. Also means that a major crash (or something with similar effect) by Evenepoel or Roglic in the Giro or by Pogacar or Vingegaard in the Tour all but guarantees a one-sided Giro or Tour.

We really need either the gap to the other riders to narrow, or some new riders to jump the gap, because an era inevitably goes stale if it lasts long enough without evolving much and IMO we're seeing the first signs of that starting to appear.

Roughly 10 months ago you were predicting Evenepoel to be dropped like a brick in Norway by Johannessen. And now you are calling for new riders to jump the gap? Seems like Evenepoel jumped this very gap you are asking to be jumped. Then there was Ayuso who finished 3rd in the Vuelta but who is currently injured.

I also don't know how this is any different from other eras. When Schleck and Contador were duking it out, they were also a level above everyone else. Basically every generation (in a broad sense) has this problem. Armstrong, Ulrich, Froome, Indurain, Lemond, Hinault, Merckx... When was it ever really a 5-way battle? Which of these guys had to really duke it out with more than 1 or 2 rivals that actually came close?

 

[yaco]

Roughly 10 months ago you were predicting Evenepoel to be dropped like a brick in Norway by Johannessen. And now you are calling for new riders to jump the gap? Seems like Evenepoel jumped this very gap you are asking to be jumped. Then there was Ayuso who finished 3rd in the Vuelta but who is currently injured.

I also don't know how this is any different from other eras. When Schleck and Contador were duking it out, they were also a level above everyone else. Basically every generation (in a broad sense) has this problem. Armstrong, Ulrich, Froome, Indurain, Lemond, Hinault, Merckx... When was it ever really a 5-way battle? Which of these guys had to really duke it out with more than 1 or 2 rivals that actually came close?

I am not concerned about the dominance of the leading GC riders but they are greedy and not allowing any breakaways to win - These riders will get their chance in the GT's, although they could be limited in the TDF.

 

[Rob5091]

His Paris-Nice experience seems to have got Vingegaard going towards his TdF form, but it's only April. We have to wait to June and the Dauphiné to see Vingegaard again.

 

[Rackham]

What happened to Landa? How can he be so strong the previous stages and now blow out like this?

Because he's Landa?

Seriously, this is his normal. He blows hot & cold. One day he's on the drops & his fans are super excited, the next he's getting dropped & his fans are super depressed.

That's Landa's freedom.

I also don't know how this is any different from other eras. When Schleck and Contador were duking it out, they were also a level above everyone else. Basically every generation (in a broad sense) has this problem. Armstrong, Ulrich, Froome, Indurain, Lemond, Hinault, Merckx... When was it ever really a 5-way battle? Which of these guys had to really duke it out with more than 1 or 2 rivals that actually came close?

The problem is the size of the gaps. Of course there's always a rider better than everyone else or a couple who're above the field, but yesterday demonstrated the fact one rider in Itzulia could toy with the peloton like they were juniors.

It makes for sh*t tv viewing unless someone is a super fan of the rider in question. Now if Evenepoel had been in Itzulia... we would have seen a far better spectacle. But the moral of the story is unless Vingegaard, Pogacar or Evenepoel race each other, then we're going to get some insane not-very-fun gaps which turn bike racing into a long procession of one rider going solo in front like Michael Schumacher in his Ferrari glory days. Different sport, same boredom.

For what it's worth I place Roglič separate from this phenomena because whether he was able or not, he was never a rider who blitzed the field with 30km solos & destroyed the suspense so early. The closest I've ever seen in that regard was the Covadonga in the 2001 Vuelta but even then it was a response against Bernal's long range attack which sparked the solo effort. I've seen people continuously moan about Rog's trademark 200m stomp, but hey, at least there's actual uncertainty with regards to the result (because after all, he can occasionally have bad legs & he's in fact barely holding onto the group).

 

[Monte Serra]

Chris Horner saw a lot of knuckleheads yesterday:

View: https://youtu.be/dqm0Fwbd6Zs

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Roughly 10 months ago you were predicting Evenepoel to be dropped like a brick in Norway by Johannessen.

False, I said the most likely outcome was that Johannessen would match Evenepoel on the big climb and then beat him in the sprint in the false flat final kilometre. That prediction aged horribly as it is and I've said as much in the past, no need to twist my words to discredit my point.

Seems like Evenepoel jumped this very gap you are asking to be jumped.

Correct...

Then there was Ayuso who finished 3rd in the Vuelta but who is currently injured.

...but there aren't many people who appear likely to make that jump too. Yes, Ayuso looked well on his way last year and I would back him to do so provided he gets over his mysterious fitness issues, but he's the only one. Bernal isn't getting back to that level, Carapaz' time in the sun seems over too, Ineos' highly-rated youngsters (Rodriguez, Plapp) seem a level below, Uijtdebroeks rose almost as quickly as Evenepoel but is now developing far slower + can't descend to save his life, Martinez will likely never be able to hold his own in a TT at his size, Johannessen's knees seem ***ed already and even if they weren't it would have been unlikely, and so on.

Now, I'm not saying it's a given that we are headed for an extended period of domination by a handful of riders, but if three tennis players can dominate tennis to an extent that they win all but eight grand slams in a span of 15 years (and 61 slams), then I don't think it's too far-fetched to say that this crop, maybe plus Ayuso, could almost completely lock out everyone else for most of this decade in races they're in. With there being four of them (maybe five in the future with Ayuso, then falling by one as Roglic ages), there won't be many important stage races none of them are in.

I also don't know how this is any different from other eras. When Schleck and Contador were duking it out, they were also a level above everyone else.

Schleck won a grand total of one GC and one non-NC one-day race in his career. Completely incomparable to the kind of year-round dominance we're seeing nowadays. Yes, GTs (or at least the Tour) have always been prone to being dominated by a very select group of riders, but it's been a very long time since that dominance was extended to the rest of the season like it is now.

 

[Red Rick]

False, I said the most likely outcome was that Johannessen would match Evenepoel on the big climb and then beat him in the sprint in the false flat final kilometre. That prediction aged horribly as it is and I've said as much in the past, no need to twist my words to discredit my point.


Correct...


...but there aren't many people who appear likely to make that jump too. Yes, Ayuso looked well on his way last year and I would back him to do so provided he gets over his mysterious fitness issues, but he's the only one. Bernal isn't getting back to that level, Carapaz' time in the sun seems over too, Ineos' highly-rated youngsters (Rodriguez, Plapp) seem a level below, Uijtdebroeks rose almost as quickly as Evenepoel but is now developing far slower + can't descend to save his life, Martinez will likely never be able to hold his own in a TT at his size, Johannessen's knees seem ***ed already and even if they weren't it would have been unlikely, and so on.

Now, I'm not saying it's a given that we are headed for an extended period of domination by a handful of riders, but if three tennis players can dominate tennis to an extent that they win all but eight grand slams in a span of 15 years (and 61 slams), then I don't think it's too far-fetched to say that this crop, maybe plus Ayuso, could almost completely lock out everyone else for most of this decade in races they're in. With there being four of them (maybe five in the future with Ayuso, then falling by one as Roglic ages), there won't be many important stage races none of them are in.


Schleck won a grand total of one GC and one non-NC one-day race in his career. Completely incomparable to the kind of year-round dominance we're seeing nowadays. Yes, GTs (or at least the Tour) have always been prone to being dominated by a very select group of riders, but it's been a very long time since that dominance was extended to the rest of the season like it is now.

I'm not quite as pessimistic as you are.

1. Apart from Roglic, who's the proverbial old fart of the lot, none of them have shown any inclination to start doing GT doubles.
2. Long term dominance is much harder to predict in cycling than in tennis. In tennis you can just look at game%won stats as a great indicator for long term predictions while you have no such thing in cycling. Watts estimates vary wildly depending on circumstances, and the W/kg required to win fluctuates all the time. and in cycling we tend to talk a lot about "this guy is gonna win 5 Tours in a row" then suddenly that era is over. People were thinking Contador would dominate forever, then Froome, then Pog. And especially the crazy high peak years of dominance generally don't last very long.
3. Riders develop very quickly, so the elite talent that challenges the big guys can still be relatively unknown as of yet.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

False, I said the most likely outcome was that Johannessen would match Evenepoel on the big climb and then beat him in the sprint in the false flat final kilometre. That prediction aged horribly as it is and I've said as much in the past, no need to twist my words to discredit my point.

Excuse me? You said:

It seems more likely that he loses at least half a minute than that he outright wins to me, tbh, it's a proper climb and he's up against some of the finest climbing talent of his generation.

Maybe i didn't exactly remember it how you said it, but clearly neither did you. The prediction didn't simply age badly, it was nonsensical at the moment, as i tried to explain to you then. But hey, what do i know.

As for your comparison to the 1990s-2010s, there is a reason for that and it's a discussion for another topic. Big boys only showed up in big races but the gaps and differences to the rest of the field were just as big as they are now. I was a kid during Indurains days, and both him and Armstrong have to have been the worst things in cycling's entire history. Winning year after year, clean swipes, in the most boring way possible. Like trying to beat a brick wall with your bare knuckles. Only in 2019 we were predicting the age of Bernal. In 2020 we were predicting the age of Pogacar, and already now do a lot of forum members assume he has no chance against Vingegaard.

The situation is lightyears removed from how bad you assume it is.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Maybe i didn't exactly remember it how you said it, but clearly neither did you. The prediction didn't simply age badly, it was nonsensical at the moment, as i tried to explain to you then. But hey, what do i know.

Way to quote selectively... here's what I also said:

Now, do I expect Evenepoel to lose 30+ seconds tomorrow? Not really

I'll leave it at that, I have no interest in going through this discussion again, especially not with Roubaix on, and I doubt many other people do.

already now do a lot of forum members assume he has no chance against Vingegaard.

I will say that I disagree with these people, for me this Tour is close to a tossup.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Way to quote selectively... here's what I also said:

You said what you said. I think my take on it was accurate enough for it not to be regarded as "twisting your words". More so since your second quote came from a follow up post after i already challenged your first quote. The point i was making, stands regardless. You grossly underestimated his abilities, and now 10 months later you are yammering about him being one of the few who are dominant. That's how fast things can change. Bernal has come and gone. Pogacar's decade of dominance is already wobbling after 2 years.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I’ll also add to this discussion that the parity among 3 riders in last year’s Giro made for some truly stellar TV. Everyone agrees that was the best GT of the year, as I understand it.

 

[titan31]

Roughly 10 months ago you were predicting Evenepoel to be dropped like a brick in Norway by Johannessen. And now you are calling for new riders to jump the gap? Seems like Evenepoel jumped this very gap you are asking to be jumped. Then there was Ayuso who finished 3rd in the Vuelta but who is currently injured.

I also don't know how this is any different from other eras. When Schleck and Contador were duking it out, they were also a level above everyone else. Basically every generation (in a broad sense) has this problem. Armstrong, Ulrich, Froome, Indurain, Lemond, Hinault, Merckx... When was it ever really a 5-way battle? Which of these guys had to really duke it out with more than 1 or 2 rivals that actually came close?

Tbf, even if you look at the Armstong or Froome dominance, they dominated one race in effect and the occasional prep race. That's vastly different to the guys we have now who are racing year round and winning all that they enter (unless racing each other). Armstong pretty much just raced the Dauphine and the Tour most years.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Tbf, even if you look at the Armstong or Froome dominance, they dominated one race in effect and the occasional prep race. That's vastly different to the guys we have now who are racing year round and winning all that they enter (unless racing each other). Armstong pretty much just raced the Dauphine and the Tour most years.

Like i said.

As for your comparison to the 1990s-2010s, there is a reason for that and it's a discussion for another topic. Big boys only showed up in big races but the gaps and differences to the rest of the field were just as big as they are now. I was a kid during Indurains days, and both him and Armstrong have to have been the worst things in cycling's entire history. Winning year after year, clean swipes, in the most boring way possible. Like trying to beat a brick wall with your bare knuckles. Only in 2019 we were predicting the age of Bernal. In 2020 we were predicting the age of Pogacar, and already now do a lot of forum members assume he has no chance against Vingegaard.

 

[staubsauger]

With all justified antipathy against Armstrong. Comparing him to Froome is a bit harsh.