Danish media acting like Fuglsang still has top-5, even top-3 possibilities. Can he just ride the Giro or something else so I don't have to deal with this dumb chauvinistic crap in every post show and can Henrik Jul just retire, please.
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Re:
My dad and a lot of other viewers his age (he's 62) really likes Henrik Jul. They can totally relate to him and his lack of knowledge, love for the Danish riders and - the most important thing - his shirts from the grocery store.Valv.Piti said:
Realistically, Fuglsang has a slight chance to reach the top 5 if some of those in front of him start fading or he finds better legs. Podium is almost impossible though, because the 4 minute loss on la Rosiere was just way too much.
1 THOMAS Geraint 49:24:43 - question mark, usually crashes or fades in 3rd week
2 FROOME Christopher +1:39 - not likely to fade
3 DUMOULIN Tom +1:50 - not likely to fade, although we don't know the consequences of the Giro
4 ROGLIC Primoz +2:46 - question mark, unproven over 3 weeks, can fade in 3rd week or crash
5 BARDET Romain +3:07 - not likely to fade, looks better and better
6 LANDA Mikel +3:13 - not likely to fade, looks like he's recovering from crash
7 KRUIJSWIJK Steven +3:43 - not likely to fade, but he's also a level below the very best
8 QUINTANA Nairo +4:13 - probably will not fade, but he's not looked great so far
9 MARTIN Daniel +5:11 - not that good on the high mountain stages, terrible TT
10 FUGLSANG Jakob +5:45
Now, yesterday, he finished in front of Martin, Quintana and Kruijswijk. It's difficult to say how good Kruijswijk would have been on AdH without the suicide attack - probably a little bit better than Jakob, I guess.
I can see Fuglsang overtaking Martin. Quintana and Kruijswijk will be more difficult to pass as they are both very endurable over 3 weeks, and we cannot know if Quintana will fly in the Pyrenees. If Jakob manages to pass those two, he will be 7th in gc. Then Roglic and Thomas will have to crack, and he is suddenly 5th.
So, the stars won't necessarily have to align for Fuglsang to end 5th in GC, but it's clear that he has put himself in a situation where others will have to go down one way or another for it to happen.
1 THOMAS Geraint 49:24:43 - question mark, usually crashes or fades in 3rd week
2 FROOME Christopher +1:39 - not likely to fade
3 DUMOULIN Tom +1:50 - not likely to fade, although we don't know the consequences of the Giro
4 ROGLIC Primoz +2:46 - question mark, unproven over 3 weeks, can fade in 3rd week or crash
5 BARDET Romain +3:07 - not likely to fade, looks better and better
6 LANDA Mikel +3:13 - not likely to fade, looks like he's recovering from crash
7 KRUIJSWIJK Steven +3:43 - not likely to fade, but he's also a level below the very best
8 QUINTANA Nairo +4:13 - probably will not fade, but he's not looked great so far
9 MARTIN Daniel +5:11 - not that good on the high mountain stages, terrible TT
10 FUGLSANG Jakob +5:45
Now, yesterday, he finished in front of Martin, Quintana and Kruijswijk. It's difficult to say how good Kruijswijk would have been on AdH without the suicide attack - probably a little bit better than Jakob, I guess.
I can see Fuglsang overtaking Martin. Quintana and Kruijswijk will be more difficult to pass as they are both very endurable over 3 weeks, and we cannot know if Quintana will fly in the Pyrenees. If Jakob manages to pass those two, he will be 7th in gc. Then Roglic and Thomas will have to crack, and he is suddenly 5th.
So, the stars won't necessarily have to align for Fuglsang to end 5th in GC, but it's clear that he has put himself in a situation where others will have to go down one way or another for it to happen.
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I think you could say same about Froome and Giro as about Tom and Giro just to a slightly lesser degree
Cance > TheRest said:
I think you could say same about Froome and Giro as about Tom and Giro just to a slightly lesser degree
Kruijswijk is known for his 3rd week. And a level below? If he has his Giro 2016 legs, which seems plausible so far, he is not a level below the rest, certainly not below Fuglsang
Re:
Also, you should consider proof reading before commenting. I specifically wrote "a level below the very best", not "a level below the rest".
Considering that during the last 2 stages, Kruijswijk has lost time to Thomas, Dumoulin and Froome on both occasions (2 minutes to be precise), it's fair to say that he's a level below the very best.
Who knows if that will change later on, but it's certainly been the case so far.
It's funny how predictable some of you dutch fans are at times. Only one agenda in mind!Dekker_Tifosi said:
Also, you should consider proof reading before commenting. I specifically wrote "a level below the very best", not "a level below the rest".
Considering that during the last 2 stages, Kruijswijk has lost time to Thomas, Dumoulin and Froome on both occasions (2 minutes to be precise), it's fair to say that he's a level below the very best.
Who knows if that will change later on, but it's certainly been the case so far.
Re: Re:
Kruiswijk did an epic raid yesterday and was with the chase group on La Rosiere where he gained time on Fuglsang.Cance > TheRest said:
Re: Re:
You are half right
He did an epic raid yesterday, for sure
He lost 11 seconds on Fuglsang though, who just paced himself all day
Forever The Best said:
You are half right
He did an epic raid yesterday, for sure
He lost 11 seconds on Fuglsang though, who just paced himself all day
Re: Re:
I said Kruiswijk gained time on Fuglsang on La Rosiere, not yesterday. His form seems to be much better than Fuglsangs and he is an excellent climber in top form.Broccolidwarf said:Forever The Best said:
You are half right
He did an epic raid yesterday, for sure
He lost 11 seconds on Fuglsang though, who just paced himself all day
Fuglsang admitting, that even though performing at his best, it isn't good enough for the Tour:
https://www.velonews.com/2018/07/tour-de-france/fuglsang-its-a-surprise-to-see-thomas-leading-the-tour_473305
Seems like the 9 in front of him are capable of rising a level higher for the Tour than Fuglsang is. His spring level was okay, and Switzerland level very good, but his top level is a step below the other rider's top level. A shame
https://www.velonews.com/2018/07/tour-de-france/fuglsang-its-a-surprise-to-see-thomas-leading-the-tour_473305
Seems like the 9 in front of him are capable of rising a level higher for the Tour than Fuglsang is. His spring level was okay, and Switzerland level very good, but his top level is a step below the other rider's top level. A shame
Which is exactly what I predicted and envisioned before the Tour. Fuglsang is 6-10 rider. If an extreme amount of bigs are off-form/injured he can be top 5. But he's not top level. I never understood the Fuglsang hype.
Re:
To be honest he is a bit lucky he is top-10 at this point. No retards on Alpe d Huez and he is gone.
^^Dekker_Tifosi said:
To be honest he is a bit lucky he is top-10 at this point. No retards on Alpe d Huez and he is gone.
Well don't get me wrong though. Fuglsang is still a great one-week stage racer (f.ex better than notorious top 10 GT riders as Meintjes, Mollema, Gesink in the past), but not a top level GT rider
Re:
One week stage races, classics and a Vuelta next year could be a good programme. With some good luck, good preparation, crashes etc. he could get a top-5 in La Vuelta and win a prestigious one week race. But he simply aint good enough for the Tour - last year was the chance to get a very unlikely top-5 in a race where people where off form and crashes left and right.
Yeah, he is obviously better than those guys.Dekker_Tifosi said:
One week stage races, classics and a Vuelta next year could be a good programme. With some good luck, good preparation, crashes etc. he could get a top-5 in La Vuelta and win a prestigious one week race. But he simply aint good enough for the Tour - last year was the chance to get a very unlikely top-5 in a race where people where off form and crashes left and right.
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I think most of the hype this year was simply because of his own comments. He was very clear and optimistic about targeting the win/podium, and usually when riders are so confident there are a reason.
Dekker_Tifosi said:
I think most of the hype this year was simply because of his own comments. He was very clear and optimistic about targeting the win/podium, and usually when riders are so confident there are a reason.
Re: Re:
But I agree in general. Disappointing Tour for Fuglsang. It's difficult to say exactly what went wrong this year. I don't think he's been getting worse throughout the Tour. He's just been consistently behind the best riders, which for me is a sign that endurance throughout 3 weeks is not his problem, but maybe he just has not improved enough (or at all) since Tour de Suisse, since many of the riders, whom he was beating there, are now beating him in the Tour.
I don't know about the Vuelta though. I can see why it would be a good match for a rider like Fuglsang, who's in the periphery of the greatest GC contenders. The level of competition in the Vuelta is not as high as in the Tour and the motivation of top riders is probably lower because it's late season. No offense to riders like Zakarin or Kelderman, but the fact that they managed top 5 last year probably indicates this.
On the other hand, I'm not so sure the climbs or stages suit him in the Vuelta. Especially the one-climb-murito-stages where they are riding 160 flat km's in a desert only to fight for the GC in the last 2-4 explosive km's. Jakob needs more climbs to get his engine up.
His priorities should probably change a bit for the next seasons. He can actually win some of the one-week-WT-races if he peaks for them. The classics as well.
What makes you say people were off form last year?Valv.Piti said:
But I agree in general. Disappointing Tour for Fuglsang. It's difficult to say exactly what went wrong this year. I don't think he's been getting worse throughout the Tour. He's just been consistently behind the best riders, which for me is a sign that endurance throughout 3 weeks is not his problem, but maybe he just has not improved enough (or at all) since Tour de Suisse, since many of the riders, whom he was beating there, are now beating him in the Tour.
I don't know about the Vuelta though. I can see why it would be a good match for a rider like Fuglsang, who's in the periphery of the greatest GC contenders. The level of competition in the Vuelta is not as high as in the Tour and the motivation of top riders is probably lower because it's late season. No offense to riders like Zakarin or Kelderman, but the fact that they managed top 5 last year probably indicates this.
On the other hand, I'm not so sure the climbs or stages suit him in the Vuelta. Especially the one-climb-murito-stages where they are riding 160 flat km's in a desert only to fight for the GC in the last 2-4 explosive km's. Jakob needs more climbs to get his engine up.
His priorities should probably change a bit for the next seasons. He can actually win some of the one-week-WT-races if he peaks for them. The classics as well.
Contador and Quintana were horrible, so thats your off form. Normally, they would beat Fuglsang, dont you agree?
He was much better last year, both in Dauphine last year vs Suisse this year and Tour before he crashed.
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I do think Fuglsang has beaten both of them on a few occasions throughout his career, especially Alberto.
Obviously. Quintana was off-form after a tough Giro. Contador, I don't really know about. Maybe he peaked too late, cause he was obviously better in the Vuelta. But he was also declining in general, so I'm not so sure if I'd say he was just off-form.Valv.Piti said:
I do think Fuglsang has beaten both of them on a few occasions throughout his career, especially Alberto.
I don't think this was a disappointing Tour by Fuglsang by any means. Everyone in front of him in the GC are simply better riders except, perhaps, Jungels. Hopefully next year he realizes that he's not and never will be a guy for a three week race and will change his schedule accordingly.
Disappointment is subjective, so I can't argue with that. At least in my mind, he has underperformed compared to my expectations. I was expecting he'd be somewhere around 5-7. Relatively to 2013, which is the best reference point, he's achieved less in this Tour, even if he was supposedly a lesser rider back then. I'd also argue that 2014 and 2015 were better Tours for Jakob
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