Teams & Riders Jakob Fuglsang discussion thread

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Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
Losing Luis Leon is definitely bad. I'm not sure how big his impact would have been in the biggest mountains, but along with Valgren, I definitely had him as Fuglsang's prime domestique, because he is so versatile. According to Astana's doctor, it's a fractured elbow and some broken ribs. Not the way to go on vacation for LLS :(

Now, the question is how much more time Astana will lose tomorrow because of this? I would not be surprised if, positionally, they will come close to last tomorrow with only 7 guys for the TTT. Gruzdev, Cort, Valgren and Kangert all have good engines, but Jesper Hansen won't be very useful and I have my reservations about Fraile, who I see as more explosive than good at setting a hard pace.
He has a huge problem. These seven (with Gatto instead of Valgren) finished 20th out of 21 in Switzerland over 18k, and now he has one less guy compared to the rest too. He is likely going to lose 3 minutes at the very least.
 
Re: Re:

DNP-Old said:
Cance > TheRest said:
Losing Luis Leon is definitely bad. I'm not sure how big his impact would have been in the biggest mountains, but along with Valgren, I definitely had him as Fuglsang's prime domestique, because he is so versatile. According to Astana's doctor, it's a fractured elbow and some broken ribs. Not the way to go on vacation for LLS :(

Now, the question is how much more time Astana will lose tomorrow because of this? I would not be surprised if, positionally, they will come close to last tomorrow with only 7 guys for the TTT. Gruzdev, Cort, Valgren and Kangert all have good engines, but Jesper Hansen won't be very useful and I have my reservations about Fraile, who I see as more explosive than good at setting a hard pace.
He has a huge problem. These seven (with Gatto instead of Valgren) finished 20th out of 21 in Switzerland over 18k, and now he has one less guy compared to the rest too. He is likely going to lose 3 minutes at the very least.
Valgren is a big improvement on Gatto and the team has been training specifically after the TdS fiasco, for what it's worth. I don't think they will lose 3 minutes, but it could be slightly above 2 minutes, which is bad enough in itself.
 
Re: Re:

DNP-Old said:
Cance > TheRest said:
Losing Luis Leon is definitely bad. I'm not sure how big his impact would have been in the biggest mountains, but along with Valgren, I definitely had him as Fuglsang's prime domestique, because he is so versatile. According to Astana's doctor, it's a fractured elbow and some broken ribs. Not the way to go on vacation for LLS :(

Now, the question is how much more time Astana will lose tomorrow because of this? I would not be surprised if, positionally, they will come close to last tomorrow with only 7 guys for the TTT. Gruzdev, Cort, Valgren and Kangert all have good engines, but Jesper Hansen won't be very useful and I have my reservations about Fraile, who I see as more explosive than good at setting a hard pace.
He has a huge problem. These seven (with Gatto instead of Valgren) finished 20th out of 21 in Switzerland over 18k, and now he has one less guy compared to the rest too. He is likely going to lose 3 minutes at the very least.
They have had a few days after Tour de Suisse with specific TTT training, but yeah, it looks very bleak. Three minutes sound a bit much, though. Probably two.
 
Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
DNP-Old said:
Cance > TheRest said:
Losing Luis Leon is definitely bad. I'm not sure how big his impact would have been in the biggest mountains, but along with Valgren, I definitely had him as Fuglsang's prime domestique, because he is so versatile. According to Astana's doctor, it's a fractured elbow and some broken ribs. Not the way to go on vacation for LLS :(

Now, the question is how much more time Astana will lose tomorrow because of this? I would not be surprised if, positionally, they will come close to last tomorrow with only 7 guys for the TTT. Gruzdev, Cort, Valgren and Kangert all have good engines, but Jesper Hansen won't be very useful and I have my reservations about Fraile, who I see as more explosive than good at setting a hard pace.
He has a huge problem. These seven (with Gatto instead of Valgren) finished 20th out of 21 in Switzerland over 18k, and now he has one less guy compared to the rest too. He is likely going to lose 3 minutes at the very least.
Valgren is a big improvement on Gatto and the team has been training specifically after the TdS fiasco, for what it's worth. I don't think they will lose 3 minutes, but it could be slightly above 2 minutes, which is bad enough in itself.
I hope you're right, but it doesn't look good right now. Everything he gained yesterday and could've gained on Sunday, is melting like snow in the sun.
 
No LLS will hurt a lot. And they should have picked Cataldo over Hansen, thats probably 10-20 seconds right there. Too bad he is losing the race before it really started, but we knew that would happen (to some extent) before. On a positive note, that will force him to attack in the Alps, or at least be more aggressive than he usually is which is really good.
 
Now, if only the cobbles would be wet :D

I still think, barring crashes or untimely mechanicals, that (possibly along with Nibali) he's the best of the GC contenders on cobblestones. The team is also well-suited for that terrain, so why not gain time on stage 9 and possibly go into the alps with an advantage ?
 
Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
Now, if only the cobbles would be wet :D

I still think, barring crashes or untimely mechanicals, that (possibly along with Nibali) he's the best of the GC contenders on cobblestones. The team is also well-suited for that terrain, so why not gain time on stage 9 and possibly go into the alps with an advantage ?
Geraint Thomas is better and I also think Valverde is.

But it all looks very good for Fuglsang at the moment.
 
Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Amazing result for Fuglsang and the boys. He finished with Valgren, Fraile and...?

Believing a bit more in him now for a top-5, the Alps are gonna tell everything.
Fuglsang, Fraile, Kangert & Cort - Valgren let go with around 200 meters to go (looked like he was braking deliberately when the other 4 were safe - he might have plans for the mini-Amstel coming up).

Point of order: You called me nuts for thinking this was a good team, and was certain they would drop at least a minute in the TTT - and that was before they lost Sanchez.

Just saying..... :cool:
 
Re: Re:

Broccolidwarf said:
Valv.Piti said:
Amazing result for Fuglsang and the boys. He finished with Valgren, Fraile and...?

Believing a bit more in him now for a top-5, the Alps are gonna tell everything.
Fuglsang, Fraile, Kangert & Cort - Valgren let go with around 200 meters to go (looked like he was braking deliberately when the other 4 were safe - he might have plans for the mini-Amstel coming up).

Point of order: You called me nuts for thinking this was a good team, and was certain they would drop at least a minute in the TTT - and that was before they lost Sanchez.

Just saying..... :cool:
Theres a difference between doing a good TTT and supporting him well on the flats and the mountains. We specifically debated whether it was a good team in the mountains.
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Broccolidwarf said:
Valv.Piti said:
Amazing result for Fuglsang and the boys. He finished with Valgren, Fraile and...?

Believing a bit more in him now for a top-5, the Alps are gonna tell everything.
Fuglsang, Fraile, Kangert & Cort - Valgren let go with around 200 meters to go (looked like he was braking deliberately when the other 4 were safe - he might have plans for the mini-Amstel coming up).

Point of order: You called me nuts for thinking this was a good team, and was certain they would drop at least a minute in the TTT - and that was before they lost Sanchez.

Just saying..... :cool:
Theres a difference between doing a good TTT and supporting him well on the flats and the mountains. We specifically debated whether it was a good team in the mountains.
A TTT you were certain would net them an "at least 1 minute" deficit, before Sanchez crashed out......

And no, we debated whether Fuglsang has a "very strong team" generally..... based on me putting the team selection in your thread and calling it thus.

But hey, if you are the type that does not admit to errors, cool - no sweat, it's all good :)
 
Re: Re:

tobydawq said:
Cance > TheRest said:
Now, if only the cobbles would be wet :D

I still think, barring crashes or untimely mechanicals, that (possibly along with Nibali) he's the best of the GC contenders on cobblestones. The team is also well-suited for that terrain, so why not gain time on stage 9 and possibly go into the alps with an advantage ?
Geraint Thomas is better and I also think Valverde is.

But it all looks very good for Fuglsang at the moment.
Yeah you're right about Thomas, but it's still all a bit questionable whether he and Froome really shares the leadership. Will Thomas even be allowed to ride for himself on the cobbles? I'm not so sure.

And of course there are no apparent limits to what the old man (Valverde) can do, but as of yet he has never really shown anything on flat cobbles, even if his ride in DDV this year was quite impressive. I can also imagine he's become a bit more careful after his crash last year, and he probably won't take big risks to the same extent that he was once willing.
 
Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
tobydawq said:
Cance > TheRest said:
Now, if only the cobbles would be wet :D

I still think, barring crashes or untimely mechanicals, that (possibly along with Nibali) he's the best of the GC contenders on cobblestones. The team is also well-suited for that terrain, so why not gain time on stage 9 and possibly go into the alps with an advantage ?
Geraint Thomas is better and I also think Valverde is.

But it all looks very good for Fuglsang at the moment.
Yeah you're right about Thomas, but it's still all a bit questionable whether he and Froome really shares the leadership. Will Thomas even be allowed to ride for himself on the cobbles? I'm not so sure.

And of course there are no apparent limits to what the old man (Valverde) can do, but as of yet he has never really shown anything on flat cobbles, even if his ride in DDV this year was quite impressive. I can also imagine he's become a bit more careful after his crash last year, and he probably won't take big risks to the same extent that he was once willing.
I think Valverde will have no problems with his positioning. Just yesterday he was mixing it up with the sprinters for the lolz. And I think he rode very well in 2015 when the Tour last visited cobbles - he was even on the attack a couple of times.
 
Re:

Dekker_Tifosi said:
Dumoulin is also better at cobbles than Fuglsang.
Tbd I think. I don't think we've seen Tom at current weight race on the cobbles that aren't those of De Muur, correct me if I'm wrong. Fuglsang otoh was magical for Nibali four years ago.

I was surprised and impressed with Astana today, exceeded my expectations by far. Although at the same time, the gaps in general were far smaller than anyone could've expected.
 
Re: Re:

Broccolidwarf said:
Valv.Piti said:
Broccolidwarf said:
Valv.Piti said:
Amazing result for Fuglsang and the boys. He finished with Valgren, Fraile and...?

Believing a bit more in him now for a top-5, the Alps are gonna tell everything.
Fuglsang, Fraile, Kangert & Cort - Valgren let go with around 200 meters to go (looked like he was braking deliberately when the other 4 were safe - he might have plans for the mini-Amstel coming up).

Point of order: You called me nuts for thinking this was a good team, and was certain they would drop at least a minute in the TTT - and that was before they lost Sanchez.

Just saying..... :cool:
Theres a difference between doing a good TTT and supporting him well on the flats and the mountains. We specifically debated whether it was a good team in the mountains.
A TTT you were certain would net them an "at least 1 minute" deficit, before Sanchez crashed out......

And no, we debated whether Fuglsang has a "very strong team" generally..... based on me putting the team selection in your thread and calling it thus.

But hey, if you are the type that does not admit to errors, cool - no sweat, it's all good :)
As were basically anyone else. Rune Larsen said anything under 1 minute would be a success when they still had LLS - in general, the time gaps, as DNP Old stated, were far smaller than anyone could have expected. So theres that.

Right. I still don't think they have a very strong team based on today, but it was beyond anyones expectations what they did today (I assume, unless you expected such a performance with Luis MIA?)

I can own up to 'my errors' or whatever. I thought we debated the mountains first and foremost, maybe we didn't. But we are 3 stages in, so lets wait and see what will happen when we hit the mountains. But yes, they did great today, so rub it in all you want......
 
Re: Re:

Yeah, positioning is not Valverde's problem. But does he have the technique/physique to ride on the cobbles? As you probably know, the stage in 2015 was much easier than what awaits this time, so to be honest we have no real indication for how he will fare. In the rain in 2014, he was over 2 minutes behind Fuglsang/Nibali, for what it's worth.
The only argument for Valverde's chances are that whatever the old man decides to do, he is usually succesful at it.

I'm not going to comment on Dumoulin. I haven't watched enough Eneko Tour to say anything about his technique on pavés (which I guess is the only pro race with segments of cobbles where he's ever been competitive?).

In any case, I just think that if Fuglsang is serious about fighting for the podium, he needs to get time on most of his podium rivals on the cobbles stage. He cannot expect to end on the podium if he has a 'bad day' in the mountains and doesn't have an advantage in hand. Also, it would make his race a lot easier, if he could fly under the radar and not have to attack.
 
Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
Yeah, positioning is not Valverde's problem. But does he have the technique/physique to ride on the cobbles? As you probably know, the stage in 2015 was much easier than what awaits this time, so to be honest we have no real indication for how he will fare. In the rain in 2014, he was over 2 minutes behind Fuglsang/Nibali, for what it's worth.
The only argument for Valverde's chances are that whatever the old man decides to do, he is usually succesful at it.

I'm not going to comment on Dumoulin. I haven't watched enough Eneko Tour to say anything about his technique on pavés (which I guess is the only pro race with segments of cobbles where he's ever been competitive?).

In any case, I just think that if Fuglsang is serious about fighting for the podium, he needs to get time on most of his podium rivals on the cobbles stage. He cannot expect to end on the podium if he has a 'bad day' in the mountains and doesn't have an advantage in hand. Also, it would make his race a lot easier, if he could fly under the radar and not have to attack.
A final note on Valverde and then I shall stop hi-jacking this thread: In 2014 he crashed before the cobbles began and was behind the peloton when the action began so it was a catch-up race and can't be used to assess his abilities. Also, he was pretty bad in the Tour that year, unfortunately.
 
Agreed. I was a little underwhelmed too, but it's too early to say anything. Jakob usually takes one mountain stage to get his game on. In 2013 he was not good on Aix 3 and last year he lost time on la Planche Belles Filles, before bouncing back on Mont du Chat on the Chambery stage. I guess Rocarasso and PSM represent stages that are counter examples to that theory.

According to Jakob, himself, he tried to ride within himself and get over with the best today. He would not go into the red to follow the furious pace over the summit of Colombiere.

In any case, he's now exactly where he could hope to be in GC. If he cannot manage a top 5 from here on, then he's just not good enough
 

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