Jayco al-'Ula and its GreenEdge predecessors

[Ferminal]

I think the reality of the team won't be a case of stripping the rest of the teams dry of Aussie stars in the way suggested a lot in this forum. Yes Garmin and HTC have made a lot of noise as they have a number of young Aussie stars, but the reality may be that while GE do grab a couple of "big" Aussie names, a lot of the 50% target will be made up with quality riders, but not the sort of stars that teams will scream about losing.

They could sign a couple of "names" like Goss and Gerrrans from ProTour teams, add some solid PT guys with potential to add to their careers like Lloyd and Wes Sulzberger, grab some quality domestiques like Roberts, Hayman, Wurf, Wilson, Lancaster, etc. add some PC guys like Mitch Docker, and a couple of the guys from the development squad Jayco-Skins like Durbridge and Hepburn, then see if they can add a road leader like O'Grady for one last season before transitioning to a DS role. And finally, they grab Bobridge, the guy they see as a future superstar.

Whilst HTC would be disappointed to lose Goss and Garmin to lose Bobridge, thats a solid Australian list that's hardly going to pi$$ off the rest of the world as suggested in here.

Then look to fill the other half of the squad with some experience and quality riders. If the team is focussing on classics, why not chase Hushovd. At least in an Aussie run team he won't be told to soft pedal in his season's target And hope RS folds and grab a few in one hit including the Kiwis Bannan would be familiar with from the track.

The riders will be sure to only sign with GE if they think it will serve them better. There's been a number of interviews with riders already saying they would only go to GE if its right for their career. Even Cam Meyer has said he see's no reason to leave Garmin (though we'll wait till August to believe him).

Great post, well said.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Sorry to backtrack but this is a stupid statement but is sadly true. Patriotism is disgusting and really should have no place in this country, especially considering our history but alas we do like to emulate those from across the Pacific. Having National Pride is fine btw but its a big difference from patriotism.

Nope, you are right. I should of said National pride, my apologies for that confusion.

Likely GreenEDGE riders
Haussler - lack of success at Garmin. Will want to strengthen Australian ties.
Roberts - SBS likely to fold, thinks he has more to give so will move to Green EDGE.
Cooke - same as Roberts.
Porte - same as Roberts but he will be a big target of GreenEDGE and they will want a guy for stage races.
Tanner - same as Roberts except he is at start of his career.
Lloyd - doesn't have a team. GreenEDGE is a logical choice.
Sutton - Sky have too many sprinters. He said at the start of the year he wants to ride tour de france. Doesn't seem likely and probably will want a better chance after he wasn't given a chance by Sky at RVV and PR.
Cantwell - wants to move to Europe. GreenEDGE have greater guarantees.
B Sulzberger - same as Cantwell.

Other targeted riders who are 50/50
Goss - they will thorugh big money at him and HTC have a lot of sprinters. They won't give him the same chance GreenEDGE could in classics and the TdF.
C.Meyer - Matt White factor. White is a big part of his career. Has worked with many of the guys that will be involved with the project through juniors.
Bobridge - 'as above'
Clarke - has had a big breakout year. Might be comfortable with Astana but GreenEDGE may through some money at him as he has potential.
Davis - he hasn't had much success with Astana. A lot of **** with them tbh. This possibly to do with his attitude but I think he may do better in a more Australian environment.

 

[hatcher]

FWIW, as of a month or so ago, Sutton absolutely loves it at Sky. Whether that changed because he didn't get picked for Roubaix this year (he did both Roubaix and Flanders in 2010), I don't know, but I'm not sure he is such a slam dunk to leave.

There is a young fast finishing Brit that Sky will likely be bringing in for 2012 though, so the numbers game could play a part.

 

[ingsve]

Nope, you are right. I should of said National pride, my apologies for that confusion.

Likely GreenEDGE riders
Haussler - lack of success at Garmin. Will want to strengthen Australian ties.
Roberts - SBS likely to fold, thinks he has more to give so will move to Green EDGE.
Cooke - same as Roberts.
Porte - same as Roberts but he will be a big target of GreenEDGE and they will want a guy for stage races.
Tanner - same as Roberts except he is at start of his career.
Lloyd - doesn't have a team. GreenEDGE is a logical choice.
Sutton - Sky have too many sprinters. He said at the start of the year he wants to ride tour de france. Doesn't seem likely and probably will want a better chance after he wasn't given a chance by Sky at RVV and PR.
Cantwell - wants to move to Europe. GreenEDGE have greater guarantees.
B Sulzberger - same as Cantwell.

Other targeted riders who are 50/50
Goss - they will thorugh big money at him and HTC have a lot of sprinters. They won't give him the same chance GreenEDGE could in classics and the TdF.
C.Meyer - Matt White factor. White is a big part of his career. Has worked with many of the guys that will be involved with the project through juniors.
Bobridge - 'as above'
Clarke - has had a big breakout year. Might be comfortable with Astana but GreenEDGE may through some money at him as he has potential.
Davis - he hasn't had much success with Astana. A lot of **** with them tbh. This possibly to do with his attitude but I think he may do better in a more Australian environment.

You forgot about Gerrans who is also an almost certain recruit given that GE will de desperate for PT points. I think that will be their primary focus when targeting riders. This is why I think they won't sign Renshaw that some have mentioned. Renshaw is good but he doesn't bring that much extra value for what he would cost to bring in. As a sprinter there are tons of other options and he won't be worth many points to them.

 

[auscyclefan94]

FWIW, as of a month or so ago, Sutton absolutely loves it at Sky. Whether that changed because he didn't get picked for Roubaix this year (he did both Roubaix and Flanders in 2010), I don't know, but I'm not sure he is such a slam dunk to leave.

There is a young fast finishing Brit that Sky will likely be bringing in for 2012 though, so the numbers game could play a part.

Well lets look at Sky's sprinters

Appolonio
Boasson Hagen
Downing
Henderson
Sutton
Swift

Even though Edvald is not really a sprinter as such, they do often work for him in the sprints. They have a lot of guys who fill that type of sprinter role. I think Sutton wouldn't mind some more of his own chances in big races. I doubt (especially after his win in KBK) that he was happy about not getting a go in Roubaix and Flanders.

 

[Sydney21]

Nope, you are right. I should of said National pride, my apologies for that confusion.

Likely GreenEDGE riders
Haussler - lack of success at Garmin. Will want to strengthen Australian ties.
Roberts - SBS likely to fold, thinks he has more to give so will move to Green EDGE.
Cooke - same as Roberts.
Porte - same as Roberts but he will be a big target of GreenEDGE and they will want a guy for stage races.
Tanner - same as Roberts except he is at start of his career.
Lloyd - doesn't have a team. GreenEDGE is a logical choice.
Sutton - Sky have too many sprinters. He said at the start of the year he wants to ride tour de france. Doesn't seem likely and probably will want a better chance after he wasn't given a chance by Sky at RVV and PR.
Cantwell - wants to move to Europe. GreenEDGE have greater guarantees.
B Sulzberger - same as Cantwell.

Other targeted riders who are 50/50
Goss - they will thorugh big money at him and HTC have a lot of sprinters. They won't give him the same chance GreenEDGE could in classics and the TdF.
C.Meyer - Matt White factor. White is a big part of his career. Has worked with many of the guys that will be involved with the project through juniors.
Bobridge - 'as above'
Clarke - has had a big breakout year. Might be comfortable with Astana but GreenEDGE may through some money at him as he has potential.
Davis - he hasn't had much success with Astana. A lot of **** with them tbh. This possibly to do with his attitude but I think he may do better in a more Australian environment.

For me the Likely riders are a bit different:
Goss - PT points willl have stack of money thrown at him + beter opportunities and chance to ride tour
Porte - will lead stage race sharge from aussie perspective + also think he will have PT points from Romandie etc by year end
Gerrans - PT points from amstel - Good leader for ardennes
Haussler - Lack of opportunity at garmin - may have PT points from end of season targets too
O'grady - To have him on board would add credibility to the team and be a nice way for him to round of his career or shift into ds seat
Lloyd - no team good rider, would get his chances to ride for climbers jersy in Giro
Bobridge - Future star
Sutton - Chance to ride PR and Ronde
Cooke - Protected rider in classics
Durbridge - future star after watching him match phinney in WC TT
Hepburn - also super fast

Possibles:
Clarke - IMO would be a very important signing. Such a versatile rider + i really like him
Lancaster - would be a useful leadout man
Docker - another versatile rider like clarke
Meyers - cam very important and PT points. I do think he'll end up at GE
Wilson - Good in leadout
Cantwell - could sprint in th more minor euro races + turn into an awesome leadout for someone
Tanner - another versatile rider with stage race potential
Day - would be good to see back in europe strong in stage races
Roberts - good leadout man
Howard - not sure of his contract status but hes fast

I know there are over 20 riders there but hopefully they can snare a fair few of them that dont have overlapping talents. Should be a really strong classics/sprint team who can compete in shorter stage racers and ride for climbers jersey and go stage hunting in GT's

 

[Tuarts]

Sutherland would be a good small stage race leader. Can't forget him even if he's not racing often.

 

[Sydney21]

Sutherland would be a good small stage race leader. Can't forget him even if he's not racing often.

Yea fair call and I also forgot Hayman and Wes Sulzburger are other options too who might also be off contract?

 

[greenedge]

In the SMH Rupert Guiness reports how Greenedge should try sign Gilbert. Also developement get Scott Law. Also Johnny Walker.

 

[thrawn]

Signing Gilbert would be a fantastic move from Greenedge. I don't think it would be a good move from Gilbert though - look at Cancellara's results in the big races this year.

The article: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cycling...dge-could-be-a-dream-team-20110425-1du67.html mentions 4 riders that Gilbert would want to take with him. Any ideas on who they would be?

 

[Sydney21]

Signing Gilbert would be a fantastic move from Greenedge. I don't think it would be a good move from Gilbert though - look at Cancellara's results in the big races this year.

The article: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cycling...dge-could-be-a-dream-team-20110425-1du67.html mentions 4 riders that Gilbert would want to take with him. Any ideas on who they would be?

Cant see it happening. would be a nice fit though.

Question: How many points would greenedge need to accumulate in order to ensure selection as a WT team??

 

[auscyclefan94]

Pozzato linked to GreenEDGE?

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/pozzato-and-paolini-dropped-from-katusha-giro-ditalia-squad

 

[Tuarts]

In the SMH Rupert Guiness reports how Greenedge should try sign Gilbert. Also development get Scott Law. Also Johnny Walker.

Since when? Geez that would be a kick in the teeth to FlyV and PegasusSports. Block their bid then kick them whilst down and take their riders away. Classy.

 

[M Sport]

I predict by the end of the TdF the posters keeping this thread alive will have GreenEdge signing the entire Pro Peloton.

Maybe time for a little perspective? Just as Fabian would never in a million years have signed with Pegasus, Gilbert will not sign with GreenEdge. Keep it real.

 

[Tuarts]

Look at the links. Its not the posters, its in the SMH (Aus newspaper) and CyclingNews which are revealing rumours.

Of course half these guys aren't going to be signed, heck without any specific knowledge of contracts no one knows anything. So how about before you tell others to keep it real, look at yourself and look even closer at the posts you're responding too.

 

[Sydney21]

Look at the links. Its not the posters in the SMH (aus newspaper) and CyclingNews which are revealing rumours.

Of course half these guys aren'y going to be signed, heck without any specific knowledge of contracts know one knows anything. So how about before you tell others to keep it real, look at yourself and look even closer at the posts you're responding too.

have to + 1 that. I do recall saying 'can't see it happening' in regards to the Gilbert move aswell. Its largely Rupert Guiness from the SMH who comes up with these elaborate potential signings. He's a dreamer, not at all realistic a lot of the time like when he described Thomas Rohregger as a grand tour GC rider for Pegasus. But maybe that's why I like to read him anyway.

As far as signings are concerned. It is no secret that Greenedge will want to sign many Australian riders and our discussion has been based overwhelmingly around which Australian riders will be off contract, with PT points and would be a good fit for GE. I promise you that many of the riders we have mentioned will end up at greenedge - its really not very far-fetched at all.

 

[janraaskalt]

Maybe time for a little perspective? Just as Fabian would never in a million years have signed with Pegasus, Gilbert will not sign with GreenEdge. Keep it real.

While I agree with what you are trying to say, Cancellara did sign with another brand new team structure: Leopard. It is hard to see from a distance, it seems to me that GreenEdge is as serious as Leopard. At least one level higher than Pegasus was.

 

[JA.Tri]

spending big dollars

I think it will be difficult for GE to qualify as a PT team in the first year.

GE will have no 2011 Team Points therefore they will need to spend significant amounts of money to compensate via Rider Points.

Let's assume GE score as well as the other top 20 teams on the other criteria (no certainty there). And I don't know how many Teams Points they will be down. So I speculate (pure guess), GE will need 20% more Rider Points, to compensate for the lack of Team Points. For discussion's sake I will equate that to a 20% wage loading (probably more, maybe less).

Also, I guess given lack of history behind GE (and Pegasus bomb) I will add a weighting of 10% (1st year bonus) to the contract cost to facilitate signing of riders (yes some of the Aussies will want to sign for sentimental/non-financial reasons).

So my guess GE will need to spend maybe 30% more than the other top 20 teams to obtain a PT roster...

ps Not sure whether or not...and if so how Penalties apply to a new team:

Penalties

According to the new UCI rules, teams which failed to have at least five riders in the UCI WorldTour rankings from the previous year will have 10 points deducted for each non-classified rider, favouring teams with a depth of talent.

 

[Ferminal]

I think it will be difficult for GE to qualify as a PT team in the first year.

GE will have no 2011 Team Points therefore they will need to spend significant amounts of money to compensate via Rider Points.

Let's assume GE score as well as the other top 20 teams on the other criteria (no certainty there). And I don't know how many Teams Points they will be down. So I speculate (pure guess), GE will need 20% more Rider Points, to compensate for the lack of Team Points. For discussion's sake I will equate that to a 20% wage loading (probably more, maybe less).

Also, I guess given lack of history behind GE (and Pegasus bomb) I will add a weighting of 10% (1st year bonus) to the contract cost to facilitate signing of riders (yes some of the Aussies will want to sign for sentimental/non-financial reasons).

So my guess GE will need to spend maybe 30% more than the other top 20 teams to obtain a PT roster...

ps Not sure whether or not...and if so how Penalties apply:

Penalties

According to the new UCI rules, teams which failed to have at least five riders in the UCI WorldTour rankings from the previous year will have 10 points deducted for each non-classified rider, favouring teams with a depth of talent.

That's ok as their budget will be 1.5-2x bigger than most other teams.

Someone like Goss will carry a huge amount of points with them.

 

[auscyclefan94]

have to + 1 that. I do recall saying 'can't see it happening' in regards to the Gilbert move aswell. Its largely Rupert Guiness from the SMH who comes up with these elaborate potential signings. He's a dreamer, not at all realistic a lot of the time like when he described Thomas Rohregger as a grand tour GC rider for Pegasus. But maybe that's why I like to read him anyway.

A bit of hyperbole never hurt.

 

[ingsve]

I think it will be difficult for GE to qualify as a PT team in the first year.

GE will have no 2011 Team Points therefore they will need to spend significant amounts of money to compensate via Rider Points.

Let's assume GE score as well as the other top 20 teams on the other criteria (no certainty there). And I don't know how many Teams Points they will be down. So I speculate (pure guess), GE will need 20% more Rider Points, to compensate for the lack of Team Points. For discussion's sake I will equate that to a 20% wage loading (probably more, maybe less).

Also, I guess given lack of history behind GE (and Pegasus bomb) I will add a weighting of 10% (1st year bonus) to the contract cost to facilitate signing of riders (yes some of the Aussies will want to sign for sentimental/non-financial reasons).

So my guess GE will need to spend maybe 30% more than the other top 20 teams to obtain a PT roster...

ps Not sure whether or not...and if so how Penalties apply to a new team:

Penalties

According to the new UCI rules, teams which failed to have at least five riders in the UCI WorldTour rankings from the previous year will have 10 points deducted for each non-classified rider, favouring teams with a depth of talent.

I don't think it will be that difficult for them. There is a big difference between being in the top 3 of the ranking and merely getting in the top 15 which is what is more realistic.

I think though that a lot of their chances are tied to getting a few very distinct riders like Goss, Gerrans or Cam Meyer for example. If they fail to recruit any rider that has the type points that for example Goss will have then they might be in trouble. It won't be enough to simply get riders of the calibre of O'Grady, McEwen, Renshaw, Durdridge, Bobridge etc because those riders while being good don't bring in the same points.

 

[ingsve]

Look at the links. Its not the posters, its in the SMH (Aus newspaper) and CyclingNews which are revealing rumours.

Of course half these guys aren't going to be signed, heck without any specific knowledge of contracts no one knows anything. So how about before you tell others to keep it real, look at yourself and look even closer at the posts you're responding too.

Ya, it makes little sense at this point discussing what riders will go to GE next year. What can be discussed is rather what riders GE would want to recruit.

 

[skippy]

Without reading the first 160 posts i feel certain that 2013 will not be an Aussie Victory at the TDF ! Certainly there is a chance of being there and perhaps a Junior shirt will be acquired but wishful thinking will not deliver the goods !
Pro Continental status in 2012 will get some "wild Card" invites and will put a solid base in place for the Top Aussie Racers to sign on for the long haul .
During Olympic 2000 i asked Tourism Australia to sort a team and they have not shown interest since but throw money around on unsuccessful Ad campaigns .
Had they used their nous then and stepped up Oz would have had O'Grady , Mc Ewen and Evans triumph in a variety of Grand Tours , possibly even the TDF .
Practice makes perfect and with the depth of talent available Greenedge will succeed in the long haul but not on day 1 !

 

[PCutter]

Question: How many points would greenedge need to accumulate in order to ensure selection as a WT team??

From what I can tell, around 500 points should put them in the mix to be top 15 - but it also depends on which teams are off contract from the WT this year, as for example, Euskaltel may have less points, but have a contract to compete in the WT for 2012 already.

From the UCI site (link below), the teams ranked 14-16 in 2010 were

Lampre - 535pts
Sky - 435pts
QS - 325pts

Compare that to some of the points accumulated by some key targets covered in this forum/other sources for GE

Goss - 203pts
Gerrans - 51pts
Meyer - 106pts

then say add a off contract high profile non-Aussie like Pozzato with 50pts and I think GE get in the mix for being a WT team pretty quickly. Especially since these riders (particularly Goss) are likely to continue to accumulate more points through the season.

Being on the fringe however doesn't 'ensure' WT selection, so aiming for high 600's would more likely 'ensure' selection - assuming the other 3 WT criteria are met.

Regardless, depending on who's up for renewal this year, I think GE have a big ace up their sleeve when it comes to getting WT status first year.

http://www.uci.ch/templates/BUILTIN-NOFRAMES/Template3/layout.asp?MenuId=MTU2NzU&LangId=1

 

[ingsve]

From what I can tell, around 500 points should put them in the mix to be top 15 - but it also depends on which teams are off contract from the WT this year, as for example, Euskaltel may have less points, but have a contract to compete in the WT for 2012 already.

From the UCI site (link below), the teams ranked 14-16 in 2010 were

Lampre - 535pts
Sky - 435pts
QS - 325pts

Compare that to some of the points accumulated by some key targets covered in this forum/other sources for GE

Goss - 203pts
Gerrans - 51pts
Meyer - 106pts

then say add a off contract high profile non-Aussie like Pozzato with 50pts and I think GE get in the mix for being a WT team pretty quickly. Especially since these riders (particularly Goss) are likely to continue to accumulate more points through the season.

Being on the fringe however doesn't 'ensure' WT selection, so aiming for high 600's would more likely 'ensure' selection - assuming the other 3 WT criteria are met.

Regardless, depending on who's up for renewal this year, I think GE have a big ace up their sleeve when it comes to getting WT status first year.

http://www.uci.ch/templates/BUILTIN-NOFRAMES/Template3/layout.asp?MenuId=MTU2NzU&LangId=1

You're looking at the wrong ranking. WT status is not determined by the world tour ranking but a specific sporting hierarchy ranking.

Here's the ranking from last year that used the same system: http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/first-uci-proteams-and-professional-continental-teams-announced

There is no running total to look at for the sporting hierarchy since it's not just based on cumulative points but it also awards points for where the rider finishes in expanded world and continental rankings. I also don't think that the numbers from last year were published so there is no number to compare anything with.

I guess you could say that since BMC where 15th last year then GE should aim to have at least as many riders with similar results to what BMC had last year or preferably better.